Latest news with #Minervini
Economic Times
16-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Stock rally sparks bold words from trading legend — his unexpected take is going viral
The stock market has been on a hot streak since the beginning of April, reaching record highs and leaving many amazed by its rise, as per a report. But even though Wall Street celebrates and indexes reach new heights, one seasoned trader is sounding a note of caution, and his message is quickly catching on social Minervini, trading legend with his sharp technical acumen and high profits, is sounding the alarm that while the market has recorded fantastic gains, but he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause, as reported by The Street. Since April 9, the S&P 500 has risen over 25%, and the Nasdaq Composite has jumped 35%, both reaching new record highs, reported The Street. The trigger was US president Donald Trump's surprise suspension of retaliatory tariffs he announced on April 2—"Liberation Day", which led some traders to feel that the threat of all-out trade war was over and rekindled investor confidence, according to the most traders, the rally's pace and size were a shock, particularly following the S&P 500's fall of 19% between February and April's low, priced in enough risk to set the stage for persistent gains, as reported by The Street. Bears argued that lofty valuations and a sputtering economy put stocks at risk of a reckoning, wrote The Street in its report. ALSO READ: No Reddit, no visa? Indian's US entry blocked after failing to share account details Amidst the market euphoria, Minervini shared a candid analysis on social media X (formerly Twitter) that has now gone viral among market observers and traders, according to the report. He uses price action to make decisions about his buy and sell, as reported by The Street. Even though the rally since April has been rewarding, he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause, as reported by The wrote on X that, "If you are a breakout trader using tight stops — even though the indexes have ripped higher — you have likely experienced a low batting average," as quoted in the who was featured in the 'Market Wizards' book series and has won the US Investing Championship twice (including a record 334.8% return in 2021), is known for a strict, rules-based trading style that emphasises buying strong stocks as they break out, according to the report. ALSO READ: Tomorrowland fire shock: Main stage engulfed in flames days before start of massive festival - what we know He pointed out that, "The frequent occurrence of squats and outright failures continues to dominate as a theme around breakout levels, clearly signaling that conditions remain challenging and volatile around key risk levels," as quoted in the report. Minervini explained that, "These failed breakouts reveal persistent overhead supply and insufficient follow-through from institutional buyers, underscoring a risk off market with regard to broad-based participation," as quoted by The Street trader revealed that, "I remain an active participant and careful observer, adjusting day by day and ensuring risk management remains my top priority," and added that, "As far as breakout stocks are concerned, this is NOT yet an Easy Dollar environment. For the most part, we are still fighting for pennies," as quoted in the comments come as unemployment, though still low at 4.1%, has risen from 3.4% in 2023, layoffs have risen 80% year to date through May, and inflation, though better from its peak in 2022, remains sticky with core PCE inflation still at 2.7%, which is where it was in January, according to The Street report. Why is Minervini cautious despite the rally?He sees a lack of broad participation and failed breakouts, signaling institutional hesitancy and high volatility. What economic signals should I watch? Keep an eye on unemployment, inflation (especially core PCE), and the Fed's rate decisions.
Time of India
16-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stock rally sparks bold words from trading legend — his unexpected take is going viral
US stock market is seeing record highs since April. But trader Mark Minervini is cautious. He sees trouble under the surface. Breakout stocks are failing. Unemployment is up. Inflation remains a concern. Minervini advises careful risk management. He notes the market is not yet easy. Investors should watch economic signals. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What Triggered the Stock Market's Sudden Rebound? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Why Is Mark Minervini Cautious Despite Record Highs? Are Breakout Stocks Failing to Deliver Gains? What Economic Warning Signs Are Emerging? FAQs Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The stock market has been on a hot streak since the beginning of April, reaching record highs and leaving many amazed by its rise, as per a report. But even though Wall Street celebrates and indexes reach new heights, one seasoned trader is sounding a note of caution, and his message is quickly catching on social Minervini, trading legend with his sharp technical acumen and high profits, is sounding the alarm that while the market has recorded fantastic gains, but he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause, as reported by The April 9, the S&P 500 has risen over 25%, and the Nasdaq Composite has jumped 35%, both reaching new record highs, reported The Street. The trigger was US president Donald Trump's surprise suspension of retaliatory tariffs he announced on April 2—"Liberation Day", which led some traders to feel that the threat of all-out trade war was over and rekindled investor confidence, according to the most traders, the rally's pace and size were a shock, particularly following the S&P 500's fall of 19% between February and April's low, priced in enough risk to set the stage for persistent gains, as reported by The Street. Bears argued that lofty valuations and a sputtering economy put stocks at risk of a reckoning, wrote The Street in its READ: No Reddit, no visa? Indian's US entry blocked after failing to share account details Amidst the market euphoria, Minervini shared a candid analysis on social media X (formerly Twitter) that has now gone viral among market observers and traders, according to the report. He uses price action to make decisions about his buy and sell, as reported by The Street. Even though the rally since April has been rewarding, he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause, as reported by The wrote on X that, "If you are a breakout trader using tight stops — even though the indexes have ripped higher — you have likely experienced a low batting average," as quoted in the who was featured in the 'Market Wizards' book series and has won the US Investing Championship twice (including a record 334.8% return in 2021), is known for a strict, rules-based trading style that emphasises buying strong stocks as they break out, according to the READ: Tomorrowland fire shock: Main stage engulfed in flames days before start of massive festival - what we know He pointed out that, "The frequent occurrence of squats and outright failures continues to dominate as a theme around breakout levels, clearly signaling that conditions remain challenging and volatile around key risk levels," as quoted in the report. Minervini explained that, "These failed breakouts reveal persistent overhead supply and insufficient follow-through from institutional buyers, underscoring a risk off market with regard to broad-based participation," as quoted by The Street trader revealed that, "I remain an active participant and careful observer, adjusting day by day and ensuring risk management remains my top priority," and added that, "As far as breakout stocks are concerned, this is NOT yet an Easy Dollar environment. For the most part, we are still fighting for pennies," as quoted in the comments come as unemployment, though still low at 4.1%, has risen from 3.4% in 2023, layoffs have risen 80% year to date through May, and inflation, though better from its peak in 2022, remains sticky with core PCE inflation still at 2.7%, which is where it was in January, according to The Street sees a lack of broad participation and failed breakouts, signaling institutional hesitancy and high an eye on unemployment, inflation (especially core PCE), and the Fed's rate decisions.
Miami Herald
14-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran trader has surprising message on stocks
The stock market's move higher since April 9 has been impressive. The rally has been relentless after President Donald Trump paused most of the reciprocal tariffs he had announced only days earlier on April 2, so-called Liberation Day. The S&P 500 has risen over 25% and the Nasdaq Composite has increased by 35%, with each recently notching all-time highs. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The stock market's move in speed and size likely surprised many, given that higher-than-expected tariffs had caused the S&P 500 to tumble 19%, nearly into bear market territory. Many concerns during stocks' sell-off, including the risk of stagflation or recession, remain possibilities, given that unemployment has risen this past year and sticky inflation could ding GDP later this year when the full impact of remaining tariffs passes through supply chains. Stocks generally do best when investors are optimistic about future revenue and earnings growth, and households and businesses ramp up spending rather than retrench. As a result, many people are likely scratching their heads, wondering what may happen next, especially since the S&P 500's valuation has surged back to new highs. Those in the bullish camp say the 19% decline in the S&P 500 between February and April's low priced in enough risk to set the stage for persistent gains. Bears argue lofty valuations and a sputtering economy put stocks at risk of a reckoning. Many Wall Street pros, including popular veteran trader Mark Minervini, have offered their opinions recently. Minervini was mentored by legendary stock picker William O'Neil and was featured in the "Market Wizards" book series for his ability to profit from good and bad tapes. Recently, Minervini delivered a candid message about the stock market, and given his experience, considering what he has to say may be smart. Image source: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images What will happen to the economy next because of tariffs is debatable. Tariff proponents believe that they're the best way to strong-arm a return of manufacturing to America, and the risk of them igniting inflation is overblown. Opponents think tariffs weigh on already cash-strapped consumers, crimping economic activity and slowing business spending while C-suites await trade deal clarity. The reality may wind up landing somewhere in the middle. If so, an uptick in unemployment, stalled inflation progress, and cuts to GDP forecasts could be in the cards. Related: Billionaire Ackman has one-word message on stock market We're already seeing some worrisome signs. While the unemployment rate is relatively healthy at just 4.1%, it has risen from 3.4% in 2023. Further, over 696,000 people have been laid off year-to-date through May, up 80% year over year, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. The most hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate hikes since former Fed Chair Paul Volcker battled runaway inflation in the early 1980s have contributed to the weakening job markets. The Fed's current Chair, Jerome Powell, raised interest rates by 5% in 2022 and 2023, wrestling CPI inflation down below 3% from 8% in 2022. The drop in inflation is welcome, but there has been limited progress recently. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation was 2.7% in May, matching January's reading. Stalled inflation progress may increase the risk that tariffs cause prices to swell again, putting the Federal Reserve in a bind. The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is low inflation and low unemployment, two often contrary goals. When the Fed raises rates, it slows inflation but increases unemployment. When it cuts rates, it lowers unemployment but accelerates inflation. Late last year, the Fed switched from rate hikes to rate cuts, lowering its Fed Funds Rate by 1% to support the job market. However, sticky inflation and tariff uncertainty have since moved the Fed to the sidelines, which is problematic for stocks because higher rates drag on profitability and reduce personal and business spending. In June, the Fed cut its GDP estimate for this year to 1.4%, down from 1.7% in March, and meaningfully below the 2.8% growth notched in 2024. If Powell leaves rates unchanged and the economy gets worse, Congress may not be able to help. Fiscal policy is hamstrung by a mountainous deficit and soaring debt pile, particularly following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax cuts. Related: Legendary fund manager has blunt message on 'Big Beautiful Bill' America's deficit is already above $1.8 trillion, accounting for 6.4% of gross domestic product, and total public debt outstanding is roughly 122% of GDP, far north of the 75% level witnessed during 2008's Great Recession. The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will increase national debt by $2.4 trillion through 2034. While this backdrop threatens revenue and earnings growth, the stock market's record-setting run suggests investors think any economic dip will be temporary. Mark Minervini has been trading stocks for nearly 40 years. A technical analyst, Minervini cut his teeth learning from William O'Neil, the veteran Wall Street stock picker likely best known as the founder of Investor's Business Daily. Minervini won the U.S. Investing Championship in 2021 with a remarkable 334.8% return, a record. He also won the title in 1997 with a 155% return. More experts: Fed official sends strong message about interest-rate cutsBillionaire fund manager sends surprising message on trade deficitHedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece Since he's a technician, Minervini uses price action to inform his buy and sell decisions. While the rally since April has been rewarding, he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause. "If you are a breakout trader using tight stops - even though the indexes have ripped higher - you have likely experienced a low batting average," wrote Minervini on X. Minervini is a rules-based trader who limits losses by using tight stop-loss orders. Stops can protect your downside, but during periods of volatility, they can trigger more often than usual, reducing your winning percentage. "The frequent occurrence of squats and outright failures continues to dominate as a theme around breakout levels, clearly signaling that conditions remain challenging and volatile around key risk levels," wrote Minervini. "These failed breakouts reveal persistent overhead supply and insufficient follow-through from institutional buyers, underscoring a risk off market with regard to broad-based participation." Minervini prefers to buy stocks as they rise, believing winners will continue to win. The failure of breakout stocks to follow through suggests to him that institutional investors aren't willing to press the accelerator, making it challenging to profit big from trading stocks. "I remain an active participant and careful observer, adjusting day by day and ensuring risk management remains my top priority," wrote Minervini. "As far as breakout stocks are concerned, this is NOT yet an Easy Dollar environment. For the most part, we are still fighting for pennies." Related: Bank of America delivers bold S&P 500 target The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why this stock-market wizard is 100% invested in the S&P 500 right now — even after the U.S. strike on Iran
Mark Minervini is an accomplished stock trader known for his disciplined approach, his consistently high returns and his proprietary Specific Entry Point Analysis methodology. He's advised hedge funds, and he won the U.S. Investing Championship with a return of 155% in 1997 and with a record 334.8% in 2021. He was also featured in 'Stock Market Wizards,' Jack Schwager's classic 2001 book on investing. Through his own books and mentorship programs, Minervini continues to train stock traders worldwide. In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Minervini shares his insights on risk management, trading discipline and his outlook for the U.S. stock market now. My sister and her husband died within days of each other. Their banks won't let me access their safe-deposit boxes. What now? A U.S. strike on Iran wasn't enough to rattle markets on Monday. Here's what might change that. Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make. I'm 75 and have a reverse mortgage. Should I pay it off with my $200K savings — and live off Social Security instead? Treasury yields are falling as investors now see a possible July interest-rate cut by the Fed MarketWatch: With the U.S. strikes on Iran last weekend, have you made adjustments to your short-term trading strategy? Minervini: The strikes on Iran may create short-term volatility in oil BRN00 CL.1 and equities, but history shows that markets often rebound within six to 12 months. While oil prices above $80 could weigh on sentiment, with the S&P 500 SPX still in a confirmed uptrend and our May 8 buy signal intact, I view any pullbacks as buying opportunities. Expect near-term volatility, but don't lose sight of the broader trend. Our bottom-up approach remains driven by individual stock behavior, not headlines. MarketWatch: What do you think of the U.S. economy? Minervini: Right now, we're in an optimal economic growth period that is good for a sustained bull market. It's a Goldilocks economy. You have 2% to 3% real [gross domestic product] growth, which is a really good environment for a sustained bull market, It's not strong enough to have inflation, and we're not tipping into a recession. On May 8, our firm put out a buy signal for the S&P 500. That's when we went 100% into the S&P 500. MarketWatch: What could go wrong for the stock market? Minervini: We have a lot of uncertainty right now with the tariffs, oil and Iran. If oil goes above $80 per barrel, that may be a tipping point that could put pressure on the market. Every $5 or $10 that oil rises above $80 could add to a recessionary scenario. Right now, we're bullish on the major indexes like the S&P 500, but cautious with regard to individual stocks — particularly small caps and midcaps. MarketWatch: Why are you taking a cautious approach with individual stocks? Minervini: Right now, participation is weak because money managers are not willing to go too far out on the risk curve, so they are gravitating toward the big heavy-weighted stocks in the index. For example, right now about 40% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is concentrated in just its top 10 stocks — a level not seen in decades. For the Nasdaq Composite COMP, the top five companies — six if you count Alphabet's GOOGL GOOG dual share classes — make up over 40% of its total weight. This is not a broad-based bull market. Money is narrowly concentrated. That's why you see indexes such as the S&P 500 moving up to new highs, but the percentage of stocks that are above their 200-day moving average is still very low. It's a bifurcated market. If you're in the bigger-cap names in the indexes, you could make some money. MarketWatch: You're a two-time investing champion, and at one point, you averaged a 220% annual return over five years. What do you think has been the key to delivering those kinds of results? Minervini: The real secret is risk management and discipline. Discipline is the key — committing fully to a strategy, mastering its details and understanding both its strengths and limitations through every market cycle. You see a lot of traders who are up big, but they fail to respect risk, and suddenly they're down big, digging out of a hole and only getting back to even. I very rarely dig out of a hole, and if I'm in a hole, it's a small loss. It's a simple law of compounding that if you don't lose big, winning becomes easier. MarketWatch: You often emphasize the importance of risk management and discipline — areas where many traders struggle. What specific methods or practices do you recommend for managing risk effectively? Minervini: When you enter a trade, there really is no other alternative to manage risk except selling a position for a small loss before it becomes a large loss. The key is to get out at single digits, and to do that, you must use a stop-loss. Some people will hedge and maybe use put options — but that just adds risk, because you could lose on both sides. MarketWatch: So in your view, managing risk and maintaining discipline is the real secret to trading success? Minervini: I'd love to tell you something new, but things really haven't changed a whole lot when it comes to risk and reward and supply and demand. It may be redundant and boring, but if you want the hair on your neck to stick up, then you're not managing risk. You're gambling. When I was interviewed by Jack Schwager for his book, after I gave him the same answer, he stopped the tape recorder and said, 'Mark, this is great, but this is what all the market wizards say.' And I replied, 'Well, Jack, this is the reason why they're market wizards!' MarketWatch: Even with all that in mind, a lot of traders still have trouble making steady profits. What are they missing? Minervini: Many people spend all their time researching a company and falling in love with products and services such as artificial intelligence. Then they buy the stock, and the next day, the stock is down 3%, 4%, 5% or 8%. They are forced to decide whether to cut their loss. They didn't plan for the stock to go down. When you buy a stock and the stock goes down, you're wrong. If you sell it and take the loss, you've admitted defeat. The real fear, and this is what keeps people from selling, is that you're going to sell it and it's going to turn around and go back up. Then you will be wrong a second time. Psychologically, being wrong twice is a very powerful force, and it makes us hold on to a position even when it's clear it should be sold. MarketWatch: What advice would you give traders right now? Minervini: Be careful because of information overload — including thousands of self-proclaimed financial experts on YouTube. You have to figure out a way to reduce the noise and commit to a particular strategy. You must become a specialist rather than a jack-of-all-trades. MarketWatch: Did you make any mistakes when you first started trading? Minervini: I made every mistake you could possibly make. Everything I did then was the complete opposite of what I do now. I lost money for almost six years. Then I reversed all the criteria. I studied what winning stocks looked like and created a leadership profile, which is what I use now. It's a technical profile ranking that compares whether a stock meets the criteria of the biggest winning stocks of the last 100 years. We look at the common denominators to see if your stock has what it takes to be a big winner. That's what has worked for me for the last 38 years. MarketWatch: It sounds as if you are a trend follower. Minervini: I am definitely aligning my investments with the trend. The main thing is a stock has to be in an uptrend. I will not trade against a trend. Then I look for stocks that are showing relative strength versus the entire market. We also look for a technical chart pattern called the Volatility Contraction Pattern, which is my signature stock setup. If a stock doesn't meet my criteria, I stay away from it. Many people buy a stock because of a news story or because their friend gave them a tip, but that's not sustainable. That's not a strategy. MarketWatch: Any final advice? Minervini: If you're new to investing or trading, don't believe those who say it was easier back in the day. Trading is easier now than ever. This is one of the best times in history for trading and investing in stocks. Be patient with yourself and don't give up. You can't become a doctor or a Major League baseball player in six months or a year. Don't expect that to happen with trading, either. You will have to put in some time, but it's worth it. is the author of , and Also read: Trump's Iran strike is a major win for your stock portfolio. Here's how to play it. More: These are the areas where markets are complacent and risks lurk The U.S. bull market is intact — and a key signal is coming from Tel Aviv, says this strategist Here are the overlooked ways to play AI, crypto and quantum trends, says this tech investor 'I'm at my wit's end': My niece paid off her husband's credit card but fell behind on her taxes. How can I help her? 20 oil stocks passing a quality screen as investors wonder what Iran will do next My cousin died before claiming his late father's $2 million estate. Will I get it? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Los Angeles Times
19-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Los Angeles Times
‘The Damned' brings the Civil War to intimate life, obliquely and mesmerizingly
How much can you strip away from the war film and still have a war film? That question invigorates 'The Damned,' the new movie from Roberto Minervini, an Italian-born director who has spent the last 25 years living in America, our worrying cultural undercurrents seeping into his portraits of the marginalized and the discontent, usually documentaries. 'The Damned' represents his first foray into more traditional narrative storytelling, yet this existential drama bears all the hallmarks of his earlier work, less concerned with incident than conjuring a sense of place, time and, most important, a state of being. In his latest, Minervini brings viewers into the thick of the Civil War, only to find the same dazed souls and gnawing uncertainties that have always been his focus. It's a war film with very little combat, but it's about a war that still rages today. Minervini's naturalistic, observational style is on display from the film's first scene, which lingers on a pack of wolves meticulously digging into an animal carcass. 'The Damned' stays on the images just long enough for them to grow discomforting — when will Minervini cut away? — before introducing us to his anonymous protagonists, a collection of volunteer soldiers in the U.S. Army who have been sent out west in the winter of 1862. The specifics of the mission are as mysterious as these men's names as we watch them carry out the minutiae of military busywork. They set up tents. They play cards. They do target practice. Are they meant to represent the hungry wolves from the movie's opening? Or are they the prey? To call 'The Damned' an antiwar film would be to assign an arbitrary value to what is really a series of offhand episodes consisting of only modest activity. In Minervini's recent stellar nonfiction projects 'The Other Side' and 'What You Gonna Do When the World's on Fire?,' the director collaborated with his subjects to create unvarnished glimpses of everyday lives, sometimes working from prearranged scenarios. Although Minervini is credited as 'The Damned's' screenwriter, his new film draws from a similarly close relationship with his cast, the actors drawing on aspects of their real lives to inform their roles, scenes developing from a loosely sketched-out plot. In such an intimate, pensive atmosphere, characters emerge gradually out of the rugged landscape like windswept trees or weathered stones. The man identified in the end credits as the Sergeant (Tim Carlson, one of the subjects of Minervini's 2013 documentary 'Stop the Pounding Heart') is ostensibly the leader, but as the untamed Montana wilderness goes from barren to snowy over an unspecified period of time, the more apparent it becomes that no commanding officer is necessary. The skeletal score by Carlos Alfonso Corral, who doubles as the film's cinematographer, hints at an elemental menace just over the horizon. But real danger rarely occurs. Instead, these men are trapped in their own heads, their tender, confessional musings about God, war and manhood so rudimentary that they never aspire to the heights of folksy poetry. These soldiers are nothing special — as unimportant as their assignment. Because Minervini avoids the tropes of the antiwar film — no big speeches, no ponderous metaphors — it's almost a shock that he allows for one convention, an actual battle scene, which occurs about halfway through the 88-minute runtime. But even here, 'The Damned' refuses to follow formula, resulting in an intentionally haphazard sequence as the soldiers are ambushed, the characters fleeing and shooting in every direction, the camera trailing behind them, desperate to keep them in frame. Whether it's enemy forces or some random buffalo, the movie's shallow depth of focus ensures that we only see our troops. Everything else resides in a permanently fuzzy, unsettled background, a constant middle distance that traps the characters in their spiritual purgatory. There are limitations to Minervini's spartan approach. Whereas his documentary films crackle thanks to his unpredictable interactions with his subjects, 'The Damned' cannot help but feel slightly overdetermined, the outcomes predestined rather than organically unearthed. And yet, the concerns he brought to those earlier movies ripple here as well. 'The Other Side,' his somber 2015 study of racist drug addicts and gun-toting militia members in rural Louisiana, remains the definitive warning of our modern MAGA age, while 2018's 'What You Gonna Do' prefigures the Black Lives Matter movement. Now, for the first time, this prescient filmmaker visits America's distant past, subtly pinpointing the economic inequalities, senseless brutality and thwarted masculinity that will bedevil the nation for the next 160 years. The Civil War is long over, but the country's divisions remain, those core tensions naggingly unresolved. Don't think of 'The Damned' as an antiwar film — consider it an origin story for Minervini's perceptive, understated exploration of an America still in conflict.
