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Mint
9 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
West Asia's ceasefire: The oil market got lucky
Next Story Mint Editorial Board Oil prices eased on the big-relief news of Israel and Iran agreeing to quit warring. Market traders who stayed calm through the warfare may feel justified, but let's hope their luck doesn't have a half-life. Since regime change now seems off the US agenda, if not Tel Aviv's, calm traders might have got this oil scare right. Gift this article Global oil prices hardly budged through the Israel-Iran conflict—not even after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities—before the White House announced a ceasefire. Both Tel Aviv and Tehran have accepted a cessation of armed hostilities. Global oil prices hardly budged through the Israel-Iran conflict—not even after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities—before the White House announced a ceasefire. Both Tel Aviv and Tehran have accepted a cessation of armed hostilities. Also Read: Javier Blas: An Israel-Iran war may not rattle the oil market Although flickery embers of this June's flare-up reflect the fragility of peace, the global relief is palpable. Brent crude slipped below its pre-war level of about $70 per barrel as fears eased of an oil-supply squeeze. But a market glut since March isn't enough to explain the equanimity of oil traders. They may all along have expected other nations not to get drawn in. To their credit, Iran's retaliation aimed at a US base in Qatar only seemed performative, with no harm done, allowing the US to shrug it off. Also Read: Israel-Iran conflict: Echoes of history haunt West Asia What of the warring duo? Israel had been warning of Iran's nuclear breakout for over three decades, though evidence of it was always thin. Even if Iran was going for a nuke, it's unclear if its capacity to do so has been crushed, while its incentive to get one may have risen. Also Read: Mint Quick Edit | The US blasts in: A forever war in Iran? Hence, tensions will remain. But since regime change now seems off the US agenda, if not Tel Aviv's, calm traders might have got this oil scare right. Let's hope their luck doesn't have a half-life. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
IMEC jinx: There's no relief in sight from war clouds over this trade route
Next Story Mint Editorial Board Prospects have dimmed for the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to the EU via sea to West Asia and then overland to Israel. As the US glares hard at Iran, attacked last week by Israel, India is in the same boat as China on this trade promoting project. It is not just India that's disappointed with this ghastly turn of events. Gift this article The education of some Indian students studying medicine in Iran, safety of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz and moderation in oil prices have all been collateral damage as war clouds worsen over West Asia. The education of some Indian students studying medicine in Iran, safety of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz and moderation in oil prices have all been collateral damage as war clouds worsen over West Asia. A big if silent casualty has been the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that was announced at the New Delhi summit of the G20 in 2023. Ships would leave India's west coast, land at one of the UAE's three ports, offload their cargo onto rail tracks to be laid through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Israel, where the Haifa port (under Adani Group control) would serve as the final node for sea despatches to Piraeus in Greece, Trieste in Italy or Marseilles in France to serve the EU market. The project hinged on Saudi Arabia and Israel inking an 'Abraham Accord' to normalize ties, like the deals US President Donald Trump had brokered in 2020 between Tel Aviv and the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. Riyadh signing up had been Trump's aim. But that prospect has all but been blown apart by Israel's relentless Gaza War, which has taken on dark shades of genocide, and its ongoing offensive against Iran. The Arab participants in IMEC are monarchies, not democracies. So, on paper, their governments could bridge relations with Israel over the heads of their people. But the fear of an electorate is one thing and that of an 'angry street' something else, as the region's regimes realized during the Arab Spring of 2010-12, which toppled some autocrats and shook others. While US-aligned Gulf states have looked on—with token protests—as Israel retaliated against the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack that took over 1,000 Israelis lives by bombing Gaza to rubble and killing some 55,000 Palestinians since then, the popular Arab reaction has been far less serene. The Israeli bombing of Tehran and other targets, coupled with Trump's threat to 'take out' Iran's Supreme Leader, is likely to be interpreted across the region as a naked show of the West's imperialist might. Although Iran's people show signs of discontent with its regime and its Gulf rival Saudi Arabia would probably be pleased to see its nuclear capacity crushed, unelected leaders can hardly patch up with Tel Aviv in such fraught times. Also, the status of Jerusalem, where the Al-Aqsa complex is located, has pan-Islamic salience as an issue. Also Read: Israel-Iran conflict: Echoes of history haunt West Asia It is widely suspected that Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has deployed aggression as a tool for political longevity, given that his endgame seems to converge on the US moving in to impose its Pax-Americana (in Tel Aviv's favour). An end to hostilities will spell elections that might oust him from office. Having defanged Hezbollah, paved the path to Assad's removal in Syria and battered Gaza, Iran is now Israel's final frontier. Over in the US, Trump has shown his strongest will yet to play along, as evident in his Tuesday call for Tehran to surrender. To some of the 'Make America Great Again' crowd, this might look like greatness for America and its proxy, Israel. To much of the rest of the world, however, it looks like the return of imperialism. The IMEC will have to wait for tempers to cool in the Arab world. It is not just India, however, that's disappointed with this ghastly turn of events. China also needs the IMEC to link its Gwadar port at the end of its China Pakistan Economic Corridor to the West via Haifa. Embattled trade is bad news all around. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Mint
18-06-2025
- Mint
Digital twins of aircraft: A big leap for civil aviation?
Next Story Mint Editorial Board Why do we still rely on 'black box' data troves kept aboard planes? Information and communication technology enablers now largely seem in place to link aircraft exhaustively—and in real time—with their digital shadows on the ground. An entire plane could have a digital twin fed with all manner of real-time readings for a comprehensive system to process, simulate scenarios and offer cues. Gift this article Expertise is a wonderful thing that allows an expert to achieve what a non-expert cannot. At the same time, it can also be a bane, obscuring new avenues of excellence in the expert's own area of specialization that seem visible from afar. Expertise is a wonderful thing that allows an expert to achieve what a non-expert cannot. At the same time, it can also be a bane, obscuring new avenues of excellence in the expert's own area of specialization that seem visible from afar. It is in this light that some thinking aloud ought to be done on why a few obvious digital technologies have not fully been put to use in civil aviation. One field of concern relates to the flight-data and cockpit voice recorders that commercial aircraft carry. The contents of these 'black boxes' are analysed by air-safety experts to identify the causes of an aviation mishap. To ease recovery in case of a crash, they are typically stored in the tail section of a plane that's considered least prone to damage. Also Read: The geopolitics behind Air India's Airbus-Boeing orders Given today's advances in digital communication, why should these boxes and the data they capture be kept only aboard aircraft? Locating black boxes after an accident has often been an expensive hunt—in terms of time, money and human emotion. Why shouldn't all that data be transmitted to ground locations? After all, airlines do offer inflight access to the internet at high altitudes. Some of it is happening. There have been two technical constraints. One is effective communication from a plane travelling at a speed close to that of sound. This has been overcome. The other is the ability of satcom networks to handle the volume of data that a plane would generate. This constraint grows ever less binding. Starlink has placed over 7,500 satellites in orbit around the planet and is ready to roll out new services enabled by their coverage. Eutelsat's OneWeb, Amazon's Kuiper and others have big plans too, while China may soon have its own network through a constellation of low-earth-orbit satellites. On the ground, server farms and data storage facilities have proliferated. Links exist, but a leap can be taken by the global civil aviation industry. Should planes encounter a transmission squeeze, they could send just the most important flight parameters to a digital cloud. To speed things up, satellite network operators could be obliged—as a condition of their operating licence—to allot a portion of their capacity to aviation data. The second aspect that calls for thinking aloud relates to the Digital Twin technology that GE uses for engine maintenance and Airbus for monitoring the performance of some of its aircraft. A 'digital twin' is the virtual representation of a physical object, system or process that constantly absorbs and deploys data from its real-world counterpart for purposes of simulation, prognosis and optimization. Why should every aircraft not have a digital twin for each of its systems, assemblies and parts? Sensors aboard planes could constantly relay information on their status to digital twins kept under the watch of engineers (or AI). An entire plane could have a digital twin fed with all manner of real-time readings for a comprehensive system to process, simulate scenarios and offer cues. Live interaction between the physical and digital entities could conceivably sort out several problems. The kinks that cannot be ironed out digitally could be flagged for pilots and engineers. Again, the challenge lies in relaying and crunching data. Thankfully, Digital Twin technology has been evolving and the aviation industry has already deployed it in bits and pieces. The task now is to take this concept to its technological conclusion. Air India and TCS, both under the Tata Group, should be able to find a viable solution. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Mint
17-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
India's trade has held up
Next Story Business News/ Opinion / Views/ Mint Quick Edit | India's trade has held up Mint Editorial Board India's trade data for May came as a relief in the context of global turbulence. Exports were broadly steady and the trade gap narrowed. But then, nothing can be taken for granted. Broadly, the numbers betray no sign of a trade crisis scuttling India's outbound cargo hauls. Gift this article Amid concerns of the ongoing tariff war hurting trade, so far India's merchandise shipments seem to be holding up. Trade data for May released on Monday showed that India's exports edged lower to $38.7 billion from $39.6 billion a year earlier. Amid concerns of the ongoing tariff war hurting trade, so far India's merchandise shipments seem to be holding up. Trade data for May released on Monday showed that India's exports edged lower to $38.7 billion from $39.6 billion a year earlier. Imports dipped to $60.6 billion from $61.7 billion. With inward shipments dropping more, the trade deficit narrowed to $21.9 billion from $22.1 billion a year ago and the five-month peak of $26.4 billion in April. Broadly, the numbers betray no sign of a trade crisis scuttling India's outbound cargo hauls. Trade growth has been slow. But then again, uncertainty prevails over what a US trade reset will finally mean and there are other risks on the radar such as the Israel-Iran military conflict. The first tranche of a trade pact in the works with the US would need to be parsed for the potential it offers in terms of access to the world's most sought-after market. Also Read: India should hold its ground in trade negotiations with the EU Meanwhile, global discomfort with how the world is shaping up is reflected in gold prices as investors seek safe havens. The yellow metal has gone above the ₹ 1 lakh per 10gm mark in India. But an increase in our gold import bill could be a bother if it is not covered by earnings from stronger exports. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Mint
16-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
The dollar still gains when conflicts erupt
Next Story Mint Editorial Board The US currency's slide was arrested and reversed a bit by Israel's attack on Iran. The dollar's dominance is resilient alright, even as the endurance of America's power in West Asia is back in geopolitical debate. It helps the US currency that it has no obvious challenger. Gift this article For all the worries about the US dollar, it does not seem ready to abdicate its global dominance anytime soon. The prospect of a full-scale war in West Asia after Israel attacked Iran on Friday sent investors globally rushing into the safety of greenback assets. For all the worries about the US dollar, it does not seem ready to abdicate its global dominance anytime soon. The prospect of a full-scale war in West Asia after Israel attacked Iran on Friday sent investors globally rushing into the safety of greenback assets. This drove the dollar up against a basket of currencies used by analysts to track its strength, arresting a slide that had taken it to its lowest level on this index since March 2022 on Thursday. The reversal is consistent with the usual pattern every time geopolitics turns grim or uncertain. Its safe haven status remains intact despite America's isolationist policies. It helps the US currency that it has no obvious challenger. Also, some experts expect the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins used for digital transactions to strengthen it as the world's top medium of exchange. While flights of capital to safety are usually US-bound, how Israel-Iran hostilities will eventually impact US power is unclear; it being too closely identified with Israel could come to undermine the political order it backstops in West Asia. Also Read: Why Eurozone expansion should be welcomed around the world For now, though, the dollar's value needs to be tracked simply because it matters much to almost every economy. And that includes India's. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
