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Japan Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Japan Times
Japan's rice crop at risk as farms face record-breaking heat
Record high temperatures in Japan could curb the country's rice production, threatening to create shortages of the staple grain and fresh price spikes as public resentment mounts over the cost of living. Key rice-producing regions like Tohoku and Hokuriku saw the least amount of rain in July on record that goes back nearly 80 years, while a heat wave this month has broken multiple temperature records and scorched much of the country. Such weather extremes may impact the harvest that typically starts in late summer, at a time when rice supplies have already been strained by adverse weather in recent years. That risks fanning prices that are already about 50% higher than a year ago, which could heap pressure on household budgets and political leaders. "Due to the heat and drought, it is almost certain that both yields and distribution volume will decrease,' Kazunuki Ohizumi, professor emeritus at Miyagi University, who specializes in agricultural policy, said of this year's crop. Moreover, the risk may spread to other regions depending on future weather conditions, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said in an email. This year's production volume will be known after the autumn harvest, the ministry said. A rice shortage caused a national crisis earlier this summer as record prices prompted some schools to cut back on the days they serve the staple for lunch, and shops and restaurants to charge more for rice dishes. The scarcity can be traced back to a sweltering summer in 2023 that produced the lowest yield in more than a decade. Another poor harvest could unleash further criticism against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which suffered a historic setback in Upper House elections in July, in part because of the rice crisis. If there were no impact from heat and drought, rice production in Japan this year would be expected to increase about 8% to 7.35 million metric tons because the planted area is projected to expand, said Ohizumi, citing government statistics. But the extreme weather has increased uncertainty over crop yields, making it difficult to forecast output. Others believe the efforts to boost cultivation can offset the impact from extreme weather. Masayuki Ogawa, a professor with Utsunomiya University, said he expected rice production will increase because the planted area is expanding. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, which makes global crop forecasts, currently estimates Japan's rice production in the 2025 season at 7.28 million tons. While that's almost steady with a year earlier, it would mark the smallest crop since 2003, the data shows. Prices are determined to a certain extent on advance contracts. But with an uncertain outlook for supply and demand, they are still likely to eventually rise, Utsunomiya University's Ogawa said. The situation in Japan contrasts with improving supplies and slumping prices in the rest of the world thanks to favorable weather and healthy harvests in top growers like India. Asia's benchmark rice price has dropped to the lowest level in almost eight years, signaling further relief on the food bills of billions who consume the grain on a daily basis. Japan maintains tight controls over rice imports to protect its own industry. Just 770,000 tons of tariff-free rice is shipped in each year while anything brought in separately from that is tariffed at ¥341 ($2.30) per kilogram. While supermarket prices have retreated from their peak for now, the government is scrambling to find lasting solutions — not just to recent weather events, but to a warming climate that's threatening long-term disruptions to the country's prized rice industry. In a break from a decades-old policy, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this month encouraged farmers to disregard a cap on rice production and boost cultivation. The government has set up a task force and deployed water trucks to help irrigate crops. The country is also now growing rice in areas once considered too cold for cultivation. The northern island of Hokkaido has been the second-biggest producing region every year since 2018, and has a higher output per unit area than the top producer, Niigata Prefecture.
France 24
12-06-2025
- Business
- France 24
Rice prices Japan's hot political issue, on and off the farm
Shortages of the grain caused by a supply chain snarl-up have seen prices almost double in a year, fuelling frustration over inflation -- and voters could let their anger be known in upper house elections due next month. To help ease the pain for consumers and restaurants, the government started tapping emergency stockpiles in March, having only previously done so during disasters. Yamazaki, who grows about 10 percent of his rice organically using ducks to eat pests, said he understands high prices are "troubling" for ordinary people. But he stressed that thin profits are a concern for many of those who produce it. "There's a gap between shop prices and what farmers sell rice for to traders and the like," he told AFP in the northern Niigata region. "Not all the money paid at shops becomes our income," said Yamazaki, a 42-year-old father of seven. A mosaic of factors lies behind the shortages, including an intensely hot and dry summer two years ago that damaged harvests nationwide. Since then some traders have been hoarding rice in a bid to boost their profits down the line, experts say. The issue was made worse by panic-buying last year prompted by a government warning about a potential "megaquake" that did not strike. 'Old' rice Meanwhile, the rising price of imported food has boosted the popularity of domestic rice, while record numbers of tourists are also blamed for a spike in consumption. Farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi has pledged to cut prices quicker by selling stockpiled rice directly to retailers -- attracting long queues to some shops. It appears to be working: the average retail price has edged down for a second week to 4,223 yen ($29) for five kilograms (11 pounds), down from a high of 4,285 yen in May. That hasn't stopped opposition politicians -- with an eye on the elections -- and online critics branding the reserve rice "old", with some likening it to animal feed. But analysts also blame Japan's decades-old policy of cutting rice-farming land. The policy was introduced to support prices that were being hit by falling demand brought about by changes in the Japanese diet. Under the 1971 policy, farmers were told to reduce the amount of space used to grow the grain in favour of other crops. That saw the amount of land used for rice paddies -- not including for livestock feed -- plunge below 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) in 2024, from a peak of 3.3 million hectares in 1960. While the policy was officially abolished in 2018, it has continued in a form of incentives pushing farmers towards other commodities like soybeans. Adding to the crisis is Japan's ageing population. Many rice farmers are old and their children have no interest in taking over. Eighty percent of rice farmers are part-time with less than two hectares of fields but they account for only 20 percent of production, said agronomy expert Kazunuki Oizumi, professor emeritus of Miyagi University. Their main revenue comes from other jobs or pensions, he added. Agriculture 'destroyed' Toru Wakui, chairman of a large-scale farm in the northern Akita region who has for decades fought against the acreage reduction, said Japan should "seek an increase in rice production and exports to foreign markets". "If you only think about the domestic market while increasing output, of course prices will fall," he told AFP. "We need to look for markets abroad." "The 55 years of acreage reduction destroyed Japan's agriculture," said Wakui, 76, who urged Koizumi in a letter last month to "declare an expansion in rice production". He also said Japan should consider a scheme to help young people start agriculture businesses without the burden of initial investment in fields and machinery, by involving other sectors including banks and trading companies. Public support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government has tumbled to its lowest level since he took office in October, which local media say was partly caused by the surge in inflation and soaring rice costs. He has told parliament that increasing production is "an option" to temper prices, but said food security and the livelihood of producers was also important. For the farmer Yamazaki, "wanting cheap rice with high quality" is a pipe dream. "We farmers are a little baffled by the limelight that suddenly shifted to us," he said. © 2025 AFP
Malaysian Reserve
22-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Rice costs imperil Ishiba after minister quits in Japan
DURING Japan's Edo period, feudal lords were warned that peasant revolts start with rice. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finding political survival can still hinge on the price of the staple food. The cost of rice has more than doubled over the past year, straining household budgets and forcing people to find alternatives. It's gotten so bad that some schools are cutting back on rice-based school lunches, a drastic move in a country where the meals are seen as key to raising healthy children. Food inflation had already become a major headache for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ahead of July's national election. Then, the agricultural minister bragged that he personally never bought rice because his supporters gave him so much that he could sell it if he wanted to. Three days later, he was out of a job. Ishiba is trying desperately to avoid the same fate. Support for Ishiba's cabinet has fallen to the lowest levels since he took office last October, according to surveys published by major Japanese news organizations. The cost of food has fueled a fight over whether it should be curbed by cutting the sales tax. This has emboldened opposition parties, who excoriated the former agricultural minister for being out of touch with the hardships ordinary people face amid soaring prices. 'Rice policy will have a major impact on the upper house election,' said Kazunuki Ohizumi, professor emeritus at Miyagi University, who specializes in agricultural policy. 'The continued high prices are largely due to missteps by the ministry of agriculture, and the minister's gaffe only made things worse.' The government has sought to cut prices by releasing some of the country's emergency reserves, kept in warehouses in case of natural disasters. That has failed. Despite selling over 200,000 tons of the grain to distributors in March, only about 11% of the amount actually found its way into stores. The rest has been held up in the supply chain. The government released another 100,000 tons last month, but prices hit a record on May 5th. Fear of a shortfall in this year's harvest is helping prop up prices, according to Katsuhito Fuyuki, a professor at Tohoku University who specializes in agricultural economics. 'In March, trade prices among dealers dropped temporarily, but the market judged the release as ineffective, and prices went up again in April,' said Fuyuki. 'Unless the government clearly signals that new rice will be properly supplied, prices probably won't come down significantly.' The price surge has been caused by a broken supply chain. Despite an increase in last year's harvest, the collection agents who buy from farmers reported a drop off in the amount they were able to purchase. While the cost of rice in Japan keeps rising, the Asian benchmark has fallen 13% this year. The new agricultural minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, said he told his staff to rethink the system from scratch and would be willing to release rice from reserves without limits if necessary. 'Our top priority is rice,' he said at a press conference on Wednesday night. 'We will do everything in our power to provide rice to consumers at a stable price.' However, imports are a politically sensitive topic. In contrast to many other types of food, the country has high tariffs on rice to protect domestic farmers, who are a key voting bloc for the ruling party. Still, in response to US President Donald Trump's repeated criticism, Ishiba said earlier this month that increasing imports could be one possible concession Japan might offer. Despite the tariffs, high domestic prices offer an opportunity for some importers. Supermarket chain Aeon Co Ltd. plans to begin selling California rice for about 15% less than the average price of domestically produced rice. 'This launch couldn't come at a better time for consumers,' said US Ambassador to Japan George Glass at a promotional event for Calrose rice last week. With persistent inflation damping consumer sentiment, opposition parties are redoubling calls for a cut in the consumption tax, a proposal that could potentially bolster their public support. Ishiba has pushed back against the idea, citing Japan's precarious fiscal situation, which he claimed is even worse than that of Greece. Lowering the consumption tax to 5%, as proposed by the Democratic Party for the People, would reduce the average household's annual financial burden by about ¥141,000, according to estimates by Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. The measure could also lift real GDP by around 1.1 percentage points, while it would lead to a significant decline in tax revenue, the economist said. Another proposal is to eliminate the tax for food, while keeping it for other items. 'People want to see rice prices fall,' said Miyagi University's Ohizumi. 'To make that happen, we need emergency, short-term and long-term measures. For now, even taking just the emergency steps would help.' –BLOOMBERG
