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Arabian Post
a day ago
- Business
- Arabian Post
From ‘Howdy Modi' To 50 Per Cent Tariffs On Indian Exports: The End Of An Illusion
By R. Suryamurthy Prime Minister Narendra Modi's declaration that he is willing to 'pay a heavy price' to stand by Indian farmers in the face of escalating U.S. trade tariffs has captured headlines—but not necessarily for the right reasons. It is a speech crafted more for the political stage than the policy war room. Beneath its populist veneer lies a troubling admission: the government's foreign policy is increasingly reactive, strategically confused, and, worse, electorally obsessed. The backdrop is serious. On August 6, the White House announced a sweeping 25% additional tariff on all Indian imports, doubling duties to 50%, effective August 27. The justification: India's continued purchase of Russian oil. The real consequence: the unraveling of a decade's worth of public diplomacy between two supposedly 'natural allies.' What should have triggered a sober recalibration of India's external economic strategy has instead become an opportunity for political theatre. With key state elections in Bihar, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal between October 2025-to May 2026, Modi has repurposed a severe diplomatic setback into a rhetorical opportunity—an opportunity to shore up his image as the unwavering protector of Indian farmers, even as the economic fallout from this trade standoff threatens tens of billions in exports and thousands of jobs. Speaking at the MS Swaminathan Centenary International Conference, Modi projected himself as a man under siege for doing the morally right thing. Without naming the United States or President Trump, he defiantly declared that he was prepared to suffer political consequences for refusing to compromise on India's agricultural sovereignty. But here lies the problem: this wasn't an articulation of long-term economic vision or a coherent foreign policy strategy. It was a soundbite engineered to dominate the nightly news and trending hashtags. For all the fiery rhetoric, the Modi government offered no blueprint for how India plans to shield its exporters, safeguard trade relations, or navigate a global economic environment increasingly hostile to its interests. India's largest trading partner has just raised the economic cost of doing business by 50%—and the official response was a speech designed for rural voters. The so-called Modi-Trump friendship, once showcased as a symbol of India's rising diplomatic clout, now lies in ruins. The 'Howdy Modi' and 'Namaste Trump' rallies were held up as high points in the strategic partnership between the world's largest democracies. But the reality was always more transactional than transformative. And the latest tariff escalation exposes that transactionalism in full. The current trade penalty—far harsher than what Washington imposes on China, Vietnam, or even NATO allies—makes a mockery of the goodwill supposedly cultivated over years of personal diplomacy. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India imported $52.7 billion of Russian oil in 2024—less than China's $62.6 billion. Yet Beijing faces no tariffs. The European Union imported $25.2 billion of Russian oil last year, and even the U.S. bought $3.3 billion worth of strategic materials from Russia. India, by contrast, has been singled out. Not because it is the worst offender—but because it is the easiest target. The opposition has seized the moment, and rightly so. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has derided the prime minister's relationship with Trump as an exercise in vanity diplomacy that has yielded no tangible benefits. 'Dost dost na raha,' he quipped on social media, summarizing in one line what many in the policy community have felt for years: Modi's foreign policy has been heavy on spectacle, light on results. More damning is the opposition's broader critique—that this is not an isolated trade dispute, but a symptom of a deeper malaise. The government has repeatedly failed to anticipate global headwinds, whether it was the fallout from the 2020 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the West's sanctions regime on Russia, or shifting supply chains post-COVID. India's response has been reactive, not strategic. And the latest tariffs have only highlighted that dysfunction. There is no denying the centrality of farmers in India's electoral politics. Roughly half the Indian workforce is engaged in agriculture. Modi's dramatic reversal on the 2021 farm laws—following a year-long protest movement—remains one of the rare instances where public pressure forced his government into retreat. The Prime Minister has learned that lesson well. His latest comments are aimed squarely at insulating himself from fresh criticism: frame the tariff standoff not as a policy failure, but as a noble stand for Indian farmers. The message is emotionally resonant especially in states where elections are imminent but strategically hollow. Where is the articulation of how Indian farmers benefit from continued purchases of Russian oil? How does refusing to liberalise dairy and agricultural markets shield domestic producers if export channels dry up under punitive tariffs? None of these questions were addressed—because the speech was never meant to answer them. The fundamental problem is this: Indian foreign policy is now subordinate to domestic political cycles. Modi's calculus is simple—optics over outcomes. Rather than confront the difficult reality that the U.S. is recalibrating its global alliances through economic coercion, the government has chosen to turn the episode into a domestic drama about sovereignty and sacrifice. This is not statecraft—it is short-termism at its worst. By politicising the trade crisis, the government has closed off the space for serious negotiations. As long as New Delhi insists on couching every foreign policy challenge in the language of electoral battle, it will be unable to build the trust necessary to engage with global partners on equal terms. Ironically, the U.S. action may force India to revisit its own assumptions. The idea that India can be a trusted partner of the West without being a pliant one is now being tested. If the current penalties are a preview of what economic alignment with the U.S. entails, India may very well accelerate its hedging strategy—strengthening ties with Russia, the Global South, and even China where interests align. But this pivot must be based on strategy, not spite. As GTRI has argued, retaliation would be counterproductive in the short term. India must remain calm, avoid tit-for-tat escalation, and prepare the ground for a more robust economic policy—one that does not leave it vulnerable to the whims of an unpredictable U.S. administration. Modi's speech offered no such clarity. What it offered instead was a reminder that the Prime Minister is at his most comfortable not in closed-door negotiations, but on a public stage, casting himself as the lone warrior standing up to foreign pressure. What we witnessed this week was not leadership, but performance. At a moment when India's exporters, trade negotiators, and strategic thinkers needed clear direction, they got a campaign speech. The Modi government has taken a serious economic threat and turned it into a political script, hoping that a few emotionally charged lines about farmers will be enough to deflect scrutiny. India's global ambitions require more than bluster. They require competence, consistency, and above all, credibility. If the government continues to treat foreign policy as just another front in its perpetual electioneering, it risks isolating India at a moment when the world is more fragmented—and more transactional—than ever before. And no amount of political spin can shield the economy from the hard landing that may now be coming. (IPA Service)
Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
Fresh US tariffs could further slow India's growth. All eyes on 21-day deadline.
Next Story Business News/ Economy / Fresh US tariffs could further slow India's growth. All eyes on 21-day deadline. Rhik Kundu India's GDP growth could be hit by another 0.2-0.3 percentage points in FY26 due to Trump's additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods. Benchmark indices dipped nearly 1% but rebounded on hopes of a favourable deal during the 21-day negotiation window. Indian exporters could be among the hardest hit by Trump's trade offensive when the additional duties kick in on 27 August, unless a breakthrough is reached during the ongoing 21-day negotiation window. Gift this article New Delhi: India's economic growth in 2025-26 could be hit by another 20-30 basis points if US President Donald Trump's proposed additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods takes effect later this month, economists cautioned. New Delhi: India's economic growth in 2025-26 could be hit by another 20-30 basis points if US President Donald Trump's proposed additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods takes effect later this month, economists cautioned. The combined impact of Trump's total 50% tariff hike is conservatively projected to reduce India's FY26 GDP growth by 40-60 basis points, or 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Indian exporters could be among the hardest hit by Trump's trade offensive when the additional duties kick in on 27 August, unless a breakthrough is reached during the ongoing 21-day negotiation window. 'Roughly half of India's exports to the US could be affected, especially from labour-intensive sectors like garments, leather, and gems and jewellery," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. 'The impact on GDP may not be dramatic, but we could see growth closer to 6.2-6.3% in FY26," he said. Also Read | Modi-Trump showdown over tariffs and Russia trade, in 9 charts Goldman Sachs projected a similar 0.30 percentage point drag on India's economic growth if Trump's tariffs are fully implemented. Sabnavis said the additional 25% levy would force Indian exporters to either absorb margin pressure or divert shipments to other markets. 'The government may then have to consider targeted support, especially for MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises), which are large employment generators," he said. Trump's latest salvo 'appears to be an effort to bring India to the negotiating table", Sabnavis said. "A deal could still emerge, potentially reducing the hike to 10-15%." Exports to the US account for around 2% of India's GDP, so any disruption is likely to weigh on FY26 growth, added Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings. However, shipments sent before 27 August and arriving at US ports by early September are expected to be taxed at the earlier, lower rate. "We have already revised our FY26 growth to 6.3% from the earlier forecast of 6.6%. However, if both countries have a trade deal, the impact will be lower," Pant said. A senior government official said it was too early to quantify the impact of the proposed US tariffs on India's FY26 growth, given that trade negotiations are still underway. 'Talks are ongoing, and it's premature to estimate the final impact on growth," this official said, requesting anonymity. India is expected to resume talks this month on a bilateral trade agreement with the US, its largest trade partner. Also Read | India eyes a secret weapon in trade tussle with US Costly reverberations Trump framed his additional 25% levy as retaliation for India's oil and defence ties with Russia and growing alignment with the BRICS bloc. While India termed the additional tariffs 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable", Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted he was unwilling to offer concessions in agriculture and dairy. 'India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers," Modi said on Thursday. 'I know personally I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it." The Reserve Bank of India lowered its FY26 growth estimate to 6.5% from 6.7% in April, citing global trade and tariff risks following Trump's announcement of reciprocal duties that month. Goldman Sachs, too, recently trimmed its real GDP forecast for India to 6.5% for calendar year 2025 and 6.4% for 2026. 'We had previously estimated a potential direct impact of around 0.3 percentage point (annualised) to India's real GDP growth, following President Trump's surprise announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian imports (last month)," Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday. 'If the new additional duty (including exclusions) is enforced, then that would constitute a potential incremental drag of around another 0.3pp (annualised)." Exports to the US account for nearly 4% of India's GDP, the New York-headquartered investment bank said in its report, adding that even a modest slowdown in American demand could reverberate across the economy. 'We see downside risks to our growth estimates for both CY25 and CY26, but are not making any changes to our growth forecasts at the moment, given that there is a three-week window for negotiations until the new incremental tariffs come into effect," Goldman Sachs added. A senior economist at a global consulting firm, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that a 50% tariff could drag down India's FY26 GDP growth by as much as 0.8%. 'A 25% tariff could shave off 0.2-0.3% from GDP, but at 50%, the impact doesn't just double, it could be significantly worse, as some export-dependent sectors may not survive," the economist said. 'There will definitely be a negative impact. It's unclear how businesses will adjust, particularly in vulnerable sectors like textiles." Growth forecasts split The warnings come amid a broader wave of downward revisions to India's growth outlook. Last month, the Asian Development Bank cut its FY26 GDP growth forecast for India to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing tariff risks and weaker global trade. The International Monetary Fund, in contrast, raised its projection for India's economic growth in FY26 to 6.4% from 6.2%, pointing to resilient domestic demand and macroeconomic stability. Moody's and S&P Global have both pegged India's growth at 6.5%, while the government's Economic Survey earlier this year projected a range of 6.3-6.8%. Despite the headwinds, India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy. A spokesperson for the Union finance ministry did not respond to emailed queries on whether the government is reassessing its forecasts in light of the proposed US tariffs. The US is one of the few major economies with which India runs a sizeable trade surplus. That surplus widened to $41.18 billion in FY25, up 16.6% from $35.33 billion the previous year. Exports to the US rose 11.6% to $86.51 billion, while imports climbed 7.4% to $45.33 billion. By contrast, India's overall merchandise trade deficit stood at $282.83 billion in FY25, underscoring the strategic importance of its trade with the US. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News , Economy news , Breaking News Events andLatest News Updates on Live Mint. Download TheMint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
iOS 26 Public Beta Is Here: Apple's Biggest Redesign Since iOS 7
Jairam Ramesh Slams Modi-Trump 'Friendship' as Costly After US Tariff Threat Over Russian Oil Congress MP Jairam Ramesh launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over former US President Donald Trump's threat to substantially raise tariffs on India over Russian oil imports. Ramesh questioned the much-touted Modi-Trump "special friendship," citing past events like 'Howdy Modi' and 'Namaste Trump' as costly optics. He even referenced a popular Bollywood song to mock the bond, saying 'Dost Dost Na Raha, Trump Yaar Humein Tera Aitbaar Na Raha.' Ramesh further said that ties with the US have deteriorated and that China, America, and Pakistan (CAP) now pose a collective strategic challenge for India.#jairamramesh #trumptariffthreat #moditrump #indiausrelations #russianoil #howdymodi #namastetrump #modidiplomacy #congressvsbjp #geopolitics 962 views | 7 hours ago
Time of India
31-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rahul Gandhi backs Trump's 'dead economy' jibe, Congress split
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi echoed Donald Trump's assessment of India's economy as 'dead,' blaming the Modi government for its destruction and favoring Adani. This sparked disagreement within the Congress party, with Rajiv Shukla refuting Trump's claim and defending India's economic strength. Gandhi also questioned Modi's silence on Trump's tariffs and accused him of prioritizing Adani in trade deals. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads New Delhi: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Thursday endorsed US President Donald Trump 's remarks that the Indian economy is 'dead' and accused the Narendra Modi government of 'destroying' the economy, comments that did not go down well with a section of his own party. The leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha also asked why Prime Minister Modi was silent on Trump slapping 25% tariffs on India "Yes, he (Trump) is right. Everybody knows this except the Prime Minister and the finance minister. Everybody knows that the Indian economy is a dead economy. I am glad that President Trump has stated a fact... The entire world knows that the Indian economy is a dead economy. BJP has finished the economy to help Adani," Gandhi told media persons outside comments came at a time when the Congress paradoxically was seeking to mock the "Modi-Trump friendship".Congress Working Committee member Rajiv Shukla, a Gandhi family loyalist, strongly rejected Trump's comments on the Indian economy, after Gandhi had endorsed the remarks."Trump saying that the economies of India and Russia are dead, is wrong. The Indian economy is not dead," he told media persons. "Economic reforms were made when PV Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh were there. Atal Bihari Vajpayee took those reforms forward. Manmohan Singh strengthened it in the 10 years. The current government has also worked on it. Our economic condition is not at all further said, "If someone claims they can finish us economically, it's likely due to a misunderstanding. Trump is living in a delusion. Imposing tariffs is wrong. Every nation has the right to trade with the nation it wants. Restricting them, speaking against the BRICS, speaking against trade and import from Russia, this is not right."Gandhi, on his part, targeted PM Modi for the tariffs on India announced by Trump a day earlier. "The main question is, Trump has claimed 30-32 times that he did a ceasefire. He also said that five Indian jets have fallen. Trump now says that he will impose 25% tariffs (along with an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and weapons). Why is PM Modi not able to give an answer? What is the actual reason? Who has the control in his hands?"The leader of the opposition in the Lok Saba further said, "PM Modi works only for one person - Adani. This (India-US trade) deal will take place, and PM Modi will do exactly what Trump says... The main issue... is that the government has destroyed our economic, defence and foreign policy. They are running this country into the ground."
News18
30-07-2025
- Politics
- News18
Op-Sindoor's Roar: Modi Govt's 16-Hour Parliament Masterclass Exposes Congress's Pakistan-Pampering DNA
The Modi government turned a 16-hour debate in Parliament into a fiery crucible of Bharat's resolve, defending Operation Sindoor with a ferocity that left opposition in shambles. A 16-Hour Ode to Bharat's Grit: The Pahalgam attack, orchestrated by Pakistan-backed terrorists, was a dagger to Bharat's heart. Operation Sindoor, the government's riposte, was a lightning bolt, obliterating seven of nine terror camps across the Line of Control in 22 blistering minutes. The Modi government, on July 29, turned a 16-hour debate in the monsoon session of Parliament into a fiery crucible of Bharat's resolve, defending Operation Sindoor with a ferocity that left the opposition in shambles. The session unmasked Congress's duplicity: they applauded Sindoor at an all-party meeting on May 8, only to nitpick in Parliament. The protracted debate session wasn't a bureaucratic slog— it was a stage for the Modi government to proclaim Bharat's rebirth as a fearless titan. Rajnath Singh, with battle-hardened gravitas, thundered in the Rajya Sabha: 'Bharat is no longer a soft state. Every citizen is now a self-respecting citizen of a strong nation." His words ignited a fire in every Indian's heart, a vow that terror will find no quarter here. The marathon session was a deliberate flex of transparency. Raksha Mantri Singh dissected Sindoor's brilliance: precision strikes, indigenous drones that mocked Pakistan's creaky arsenal, and forensic evidence tying the terrorists to Pakistan's sinister web. 'Operation Sindoor was not just a military action but an effective and decisive demonstration of the government's responsibility towards India's sovereignty," he declared, silencing doubters with facts. The operation's crowning glory — Pakistan's surrender on May 10 after Indian forces pounded their airfields — was a geopolitical slap, laid bare for the nation to cheer. He buttressed the narrative, swatting away US President Donald Trump's claim of brokering a ceasefire. 'No Modi-Trump talks occurred between April 22 and June 17," Jaishankar clarified, cementing Bharat's sovereign resolve. Amit Shah's Verbal Firestorm: Witty, Satiating & Clinching Amit Shah, the union Home Minister, tore into Congress's hypocrisy with ruthless precision, leaving it clutching at straws, if not crawling barefoot and that too rudderlessly. Confirming that the three terrorists — Suleiman, Afghan, and Jibran — neutralised in Operation Mahadev, a subset of Sindoor, were Pakistani nationals with voter IDs and Pakistan-sourced weapons, Shah scoffed at Congress's communal deflections: 'Don't get upset by looking at the religion of the terrorists killed." His verbal sledgehammer exposed Congress's obsession with muddying national security with irrelevant distractions, a tactic as tired as their rhetoric. Hooda's Burger Blunder: Meme Gold If the government was a juggernaut, Congress was a clown show, with Hooda as its bumbling ringmaster. His McDonald's gaffe – likening Sindoor's tactical pause to a fast-food deal – ignited a meme-storm on X. #HoodaMcDonalds and #BurgerCeasefire trended as youth pounced. One meme showed Hooda ordering a 'ceasefire combo with extra diplomacy," while another sneered, 'Hooda thinks geopolitics is a drive-thru order." Gaurav Gogoi's queries about Rafale losses fizzled against Singh's explanation that Sindoor prioritized terror hubs. Hooda's 'If Pakistan was on its knees, why stop?" ignored the strategic pause, earning more laughs than respect. Congress's DNA: A Legacy of Appeasement Congress's DNA reeks of mollycoddling enemies while defaming Bharat's own. Chidambaram's clean chit to Pakistan for Pahalgam, claiming 'no evidence" of their role, echoes his 2010 'saffron terror" trope. Shah slammed it as 'questioning India's attack on terror facilities." Post-26/11, Congress granted Pakistan MFN status, a diplomatic olive branch to a nation that bled Mumbai. Contrast this with BJP's relentless ripostes: surgical strikes, Balakot, and Sindoor. Shivraj Patil, 26/11's Home Minister, peddled 'Hindutva terror," giving Pakistan a pass while vilifying Hindus. Digvijay Singh endorsed 26/11 RSS Ki Saazish (2010), claiming Hemant Karkare feared Hindu extremists – a debunked lie. Now, Vadra blames Pahalgam on 'Hindutva," a slur against the victims. This quartet – Chidambaram, Patil, Singh, and Vadra – exposes Congress's toxic brew of denialism and defamation. Modi's Searing Assault on Congress Prime Minister Modi, taking the floor, unleashed a blistering attack on Congress, exposing their flip-flopping and appeasement. 'Congress clapped for Sindoor in private but cries foul in public," he roared, mocking their 'crocodile tears" over the operation's pause. He tore into their historical softness on terror, citing their post-26/11 decision to grant Pakistan MFN status while Bharat mourned. 'When Mumbai bled, Congress offered Pakistan a trade bouquet; when Pahalgam wept, we delivered Sindoor's thunder," Modi declared, contrasting BJP's decisive strikes – surgical strikes (2016), Balakot (2019), and now Sindoor – with Congress's spinelessness. He ridiculed their 'Hindu terror" fantasies, slamming Vadra's 'vile" Pahalgam claim as 'an insult to the 26 martyrs." Modi's words weren't just a rebuke – they were a battle cry, rallying Bharat against an opposition that 'sells national pride for votes." The Youth's Verdict: Memes Over Manifestos Congress's gaffes, from Hooda's burger blunder to Vadra's Hindutva nonsense, have made them social media's punching bag. X users savaged them: one post mocked, 'Congress trades national security for meme stardom." Another captioned Hooda with a burger: 'When your terror policy is a Big Mac attack." The youth see Congress as a relic, peddling narratives that insult Bharat's resolve. The 16-hour session showcased a New India – fearless, self-reliant, and lethal. Singh's vow – 'Those who dream to give India a thousand cuts must never forget that this is the New India led by PM Modi, which can go to any extent against terrorism" – set hearts ablaze. Amit Shah's facts-first approach, Rajnath Singh's iron-fist unwavering stand, and Modi's searing takedown kept the narrative ironclad, scaffolded by the other MPs and minister. Operation Sindoor, and the session that immortalized it, is a milestone in Bharat's ascent, while Congress, mired in its Pakistan-pampering DNA, sinks into irrelevance, one meme at a time. Yuvraj Pokharna is an independent journalist and columnist. His X handle is @iyuvrajpokharna. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18's views. About the Author Yuvraj Pokharna Yuvraj Pokharna is a Surat-based author and media panelist who vociferously voices his opinions on issues of Hindutva, Islamist Jihad, politics, policies, and sometimes mules over books. He can be followed on More tags : Amit Shah EAM S Jaishankar Narendra Modi Operation Sindoor Pahalgam attack parliament rajnath singh view comments Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: July 30, 2025, 10:01 IST News opinion Write Mind | Op-Sindoor's Roar: Modi Govt's 16-Hour Parliament Masterclass Exposes Congress's Pakistan-Pampering DNA Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
