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'No one wants wider war': UAE expert urges calm amid Israel-Iran strikes
[Editor's Note: Follow the KT live blog for live updates on the Israel-Iran conflict.]
With tensions between Israel and Iran threatening to spiral into a broader regional conflict, a UAE-based political analyst has stressed the urgent need for serious de-escalation efforts, warning that any large-scale retaliation could drag neighbouring states into the fray.
'No one in the region, including Iran, wants a wider war,' Mohammed AlSawwafi, an Emirati writer, told Khaleej Times, calling for diplomatic coordination to contain the fallout and protect regional stability.
He warned that the fallout of the confrontation could reverberate beyond the immediate zone of conflict. 'The possibility of a wider regional war largely depends on how Iran chooses to respond. If the retaliation is large-scale, escalation may follow,' he added. 'However, I believe there will be serious efforts to de-escalate. No country in the region, including Iran, wants this to become a broader war."
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Security concerns in the Gulf
The proximity of the Gulf to the conflict zone has already raised alarms.
'There will definitely be an impact on regional stability, particularly through increased anxiety over international shipping routes and the presence of American naval forces.' AlSawwafi dismissed the likelihood of direct Iranian aggression against Gulf states, citing Tehran's awareness of the Gulf's diplomatic efforts to maintain balance. 'Iran knows that many of these countries have maintained positive or neutral stances and would not want to lose that goodwill.'
One of the immediate effects of the conflict has been on civil aviation. With Jordan and Iraq temporarily closing their airspace, flight disruptions have already begun. 'Airlines operating in and out of Iran, Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria have started to feel the impact,' the analyst noted. 'And since Israel has stated that operations may continue for days or even weeks, the situation remains fluid.'
Gulf diplomacy: Neutral but not immune
Gulf states have made their positions clear regarding Israel's breach of Iranian sovereignty. 'They have begun coordinating with regional and global powers to prevent further escalation. The Gulf is not a party to this conflict and will strive to preserve its neutrality. However, given that both Iran and Israel are influential actors in the region, economic fallout is inevitable.'
Impact on normalisation efforts
The recent strikes are also likely to stall already frozen normalisation talks between Gulf countries and Israel. 'I believe talks on normalisation had already paused after the October 2023 events. Expanding these ties has always depended on key conditions, particularly progress toward a two-state solution — something Israeli leadership under Netanyahu has rejected,' explained AlSawwafi.
'While the current moment is not conducive to resuming normalisation, it could trigger renewed international efforts to resolve longstanding issues, including the peace process.' Oil Prices and Economic Ripples The economic consequences are already surfacing, particularly in global energy markets. 'Naturally, oil prices will rise, especially given Iran's role as a major oil producer. This, on top of the ongoing Russian energy crisis, could worsen global energy shortages,' he concluded. 'Since oil remains the artery of the global economy, any disruption in supply will have far-reaching effects.'
