'No one wants wider war': UAE expert urges calm amid Israel-Iran strikes
[Editor's Note: Follow the KT live blog for live updates on the Israel-Iran conflict.]
With tensions between Israel and Iran threatening to spiral into a broader regional conflict, a UAE-based political analyst has stressed the urgent need for serious de-escalation efforts, warning that any large-scale retaliation could drag neighbouring states into the fray.
'No one in the region, including Iran, wants a wider war,' Mohammed AlSawwafi, an Emirati writer, told Khaleej Times, calling for diplomatic coordination to contain the fallout and protect regional stability.
He warned that the fallout of the confrontation could reverberate beyond the immediate zone of conflict. 'The possibility of a wider regional war largely depends on how Iran chooses to respond. If the retaliation is large-scale, escalation may follow,' he added. 'However, I believe there will be serious efforts to de-escalate. No country in the region, including Iran, wants this to become a broader war."
Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.
Security concerns in the Gulf
The proximity of the Gulf to the conflict zone has already raised alarms.
'There will definitely be an impact on regional stability, particularly through increased anxiety over international shipping routes and the presence of American naval forces.' AlSawwafi dismissed the likelihood of direct Iranian aggression against Gulf states, citing Tehran's awareness of the Gulf's diplomatic efforts to maintain balance. 'Iran knows that many of these countries have maintained positive or neutral stances and would not want to lose that goodwill.'
One of the immediate effects of the conflict has been on civil aviation. With Jordan and Iraq temporarily closing their airspace, flight disruptions have already begun. 'Airlines operating in and out of Iran, Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria have started to feel the impact,' the analyst noted. 'And since Israel has stated that operations may continue for days or even weeks, the situation remains fluid.'
Gulf diplomacy: Neutral but not immune
Gulf states have made their positions clear regarding Israel's breach of Iranian sovereignty. 'They have begun coordinating with regional and global powers to prevent further escalation. The Gulf is not a party to this conflict and will strive to preserve its neutrality. However, given that both Iran and Israel are influential actors in the region, economic fallout is inevitable.'
Impact on normalisation efforts
The recent strikes are also likely to stall already frozen normalisation talks between Gulf countries and Israel. 'I believe talks on normalisation had already paused after the October 2023 events. Expanding these ties has always depended on key conditions, particularly progress toward a two-state solution — something Israeli leadership under Netanyahu has rejected,' explained AlSawwafi.
'While the current moment is not conducive to resuming normalisation, it could trigger renewed international efforts to resolve longstanding issues, including the peace process.' Oil Prices and Economic Ripples The economic consequences are already surfacing, particularly in global energy markets. 'Naturally, oil prices will rise, especially given Iran's role as a major oil producer. This, on top of the ongoing Russian energy crisis, could worsen global energy shortages,' he concluded. 'Since oil remains the artery of the global economy, any disruption in supply will have far-reaching effects.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The National
34 minutes ago
- The National
Hezbollah assured Lebanese officials it won't join Iran's retaliation, security sources say
Lebanese officials have urged Hezbollah not to join Iran 's response to Israeli attacks and the group has assured them it will not take part, security sources told The National on Saturday. 'Officials moved quickly to urge Hezbollah not to drag Lebanon into another war, and the group has given reassurances that it has no intention of doing so,' one of the Lebanese sources said. Israel's deadly strike on Iran on Friday wiped out much of Tehran's military and nuclear leadership. A broader regional offensive by Israel over the past two years has severely weakened Iranian proxies across the region, leaving Hezbollah unable to come to its sponsor's aid. Still, there is concern within security circles in Lebanon over one specific factor: Hezbollah's arsenal of strategic, long-range precision missiles. 'We know those important missiles can only be launched on orders from Iran,' the source said. 'The problem is, we don't know whether they still exist or if they were destroyed by Israel. And if they do still exist, there's a worry they could eventually be used and lead to a new devastating war with Israel.' A second security source confirmed that the state had formally requested Hezbollah not to interfere, and the group responded positively. 'Many people have fled southern Lebanon and Hezbollah-controlled areas in Beirut out of fear of Israeli strikes and a wider escalation despite the assurances,' the source added. Israel's offensive against Hezbollah, which escalated in September 2024, took out most of the group's leaders and destroyed most of its arsenal. By Israeli and US intelligence estimates, around 70 per cent of Hezbollah's military capabilities have been destroyed. Even if Hezbollah were in a position to attack, its main supply route by land through Syria was cut when its ally, Bashar Al Assad, was deposed last December by rebels who Hezbollah itself had spent years fighting. This means the group would have difficulty replenishing the limited stores that remain. Lebanese leaders and western diplomats are aware that Lebanon's relative stability is hanging in the balance. The US and France scrambled to reach a shaky, if uneven, ceasefire in Lebanon. But the ceasefire, and Hezbollah's defeat, has led to a de facto political reality: Israel can strike at will in Lebanon, but Hezbollah – and Lebanon – would be severely punished for attacking or retaliating.
The National
an hour ago
- The National
Disarmament of Palestinian camps in Lebanon likely to be postponed
The disarmament of Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps is likely to be delayed beyond a mid-June deadline, a Palestinian source told The National. An official within the Fatah movement in Lebanon said the plan will not be put into effect until after a Palestinian delegation headed by Azaam Al Ahmad returns to Beirut to meet representatives of all Palestinian factions. 'The discussion [of disarmament ] has been postponed until after Azaam Al Ahmad arrives in Lebanon,' the source said, adding that Mr Al Ahmad was not expected until 'after June 15'. He is the deputy head of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), second to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who devised the agreement with Lebanese leaders. 'When Azaam al Ahmad was here, he was supposed to also meet with the coalition which includes Hamas, but their leaders were traveling,' the source said. He declined to provide an exact date. Mid-June was given as a start date for the beginning of the disarmament process for Palestinian factions in Lebanon. Lebanese political sources and officials within the Fatah movement, the dominant political party within the PLO, had said the disarmament would begin with Beirut camps Shatila, Burj Al Barajneh, and Mar Elias. Hamas in Lebanon has dismissed the disarmament plan agreed upon by Mr Abbas and Lebanese leaders as 'unilateral', saying they had been left out of the agreement between Palestinian officials and Lebanese leaders. The disarmament plan represents only Hamas's main opponent, the Palestinian Authority, the movement has said. Hamas also said it was never formally informed of a decision to disarm the camps, insisting on a dialogue of representatives from all Palestinian factions – including a coalition of factions that includes Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and other Islamist groups not under the authority of the PLO. The disarmament decision has also stirred controversy within Palestinian factions in Lebanon that also hold membership in the PLO, which contains representatives of a diverse array of Palestinian factions with varying ideologies. On Friday, a statement by the Lebanese branch of the Popular Struggle Front, a PLO member, was critical of the unilateral nature of the disarmament decision, saying the agreement was never presented to all Palestinian factions in Lebanon. 'It would have been more appropriate for the owner of the vision and ideas to present them' to representatives of the joint factions in Lebanon, said Tamer Aziz Abu Al Abed, a representative of the Struggle Front. He added that the plan had not achieved a majority of Palestinian confidence or approval in Lebanon. 'We hope in the coming days to put all the papers up for discussion with the presidential delegation coming to Lebanon,' he said. The issue of disarming Lebanon's 12 Palestinian refugee camps, which are not under Lebanese state control, has long been contentious. Groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, dedicated to armed resistance against Israel and allied with Hezbollah, have frequently used Lebanon as a base to launch rockets at Israel. Disarming the camps comes under a broader initiative by Lebanese leaders to limit and disarm non-state forces. But the memory of Lebanon's 1975–1990 civil war – during which Palestinian militias were among the main participants, alongside a series of Lebanese factions and international proxies – still lingers for many Palestinians, who view weapons as essential for self-defence. Weaponry also holds deep symbolic value for Palestinians in Lebanon, many of whom were expelled from their land in 1948 during the Nakba, which marked the creation of what is now Israel. For them, arms represent not only protection but a continuing struggle to return to their homeland. Lebanon hosts about 222,000 Palestinian refugees, many of whom live in the 12 overcrowded camps, according to the UN agency UNRWA. Most are direct refugees or descendants of Palestinians who were expelled from their land during a violent mass removal that led to the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. They face a variety of legal restrictions in Lebanon, including on employment.
The National
an hour ago
- The National
Jordan reopens airspace day after Israel and Iran exchange missile fire
Jordan reopened its airspace on Saturday morning after it was closed to traffic following air attacks by Israel on Iran's nuclear sites on Friday. Jordanian airspace re-opened at 7.30am, the civil aviation commission said. Other countries in the region, including Iran and Iraq, also shut their airspace. The restrictions have led to widespread travel disruption after airlines cancelled and delayed flights. Iran announced its airspace would be closed until 2pm on Saturday, while the Iraqi Ministry of Transport announced on Friday that the 'complete suspension of air traffic at all Iraqi airports and the closure of Iraqi airspace' would continue until further notice. Syria also announced a closure of its airspace, which had been scheduled to be lifted at 3pm local time on Friday. There was no further update from Syrian authorities when it plans to reopen its airspace. 'This measure comes as part of our close monitoring of the developments in the airspace in the region, and we will re-evaluate the decision immediately after the specified period ends, with the possibility of extending it or reopening airspace, according to safety requirements,' the Syrian Arab News Agency, reported on Friday quoting Ashhad Al Salibi, the head of the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority. Tension across the Middle East rose on Friday after Israel launched a wave of strikes across Iran, killing senior military officials and hitting key nuclear sites. Iran also launched retaliatory missile strikes on Israel into Saturday morning, killing at least three people and wounding dozens, raising concerns of a wider Middle East war. Israeli military said that air raid sirens sounded across the county as defences identified Iranian drones. Etihad suspends flights to Tel Aviv and Amman Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport was also closed, with the UAE's Etihad Airways announcing cancellation of services to and from Tel Aviv. 'Etihad Airways is experiencing disruption to several services across the region due to airspace closures and the continuing regional situation,' Etihad's duty media officer told The National in a statement on Saturday. As a result, all flights between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, and between Abu Dhabi and Amman on June 14, June 15 and June 16 have been cancelled. The EY583 / EY584 between Abu Dhabi and Beirut on June 14 has also been cancelled, according to Etihad. 'In addition, Etihad is re-routing a number of flights in response to restricted airspace in parts of the Middle East,' the statement said. Travellers transiting through Abu Dhabi to connect to cancelled flights will also not be accepted for travel from their point of origin. 'This remains a developing situation which is likely to cause some disruption and delays over the coming days. Etihad is continuously monitoring airspace and security updates in close coordination with the relevant authorities,' the Abu Dhabi based airline said. Emirates also cancelled flights to and from Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Iran. Other major airlines, including Lufthansa and Air India, also rerouted services mid-flight on Friday. Middle East Airlines suspends inbound flights to Beirut Meanwhile, Middle East Airlines – the national carrier of Lebanon – has announced the suspension of all inbound flights to Beirut until further notice, Lebanese broadcaster LBCI reported on Saturday. The airline also announced the cancellation of all outbound flights from Beirut scheduled to depart before 1pm on Saturday. As for flights scheduled to depart after 1pm, passengers will be informed based on further developments, the broadcaster added.
