Latest news with #Moissl
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit Moon
An huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has a nearly four percent chance of smashing into the Moon, according to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope. The asteroid, thought to be capable of levelling a city, set a new record in February for having the highest chance -- 3.1 percent -- of hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured. Earth's planetary defence community leapt into action and further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid -- called 2024 YR4 -- will strike Earth on December 22, 2032. But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite have been steadily rising. After the Webb telescope turned its powerful gaze towards the asteroid last month, the chance of a Moon shot is now at 3.8 percent, NASA said. "There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon," NASA said in a statement on Thursday. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defence office, told AFP that this aligned with their internal estimates of around four percent. The new Webb data also shed light on the size of the space rock, which was previously estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres (131 to 295 feet). It is now believed to be 53 to 67 metres, roughly the height of a 15-storey building. This is significant because it is bigger than the 50-metre threshold for activating planetary defence plans. If the asteroid still had a more than one percent chance of hitting Earth, "the development of one or more deflection missions would already be starting now", Moissl said. There are a range of ideas for how Earth could fend off an oncoming asteroid, including nuclear weapons and lasers. But only one has been tested on an actual asteroid. In 2022, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory by smashing a spacecraft into it. - 'Perfect opportunity' - While no one wanted to need to test Earth's defences on the potentially hugely destructive asteroid 2024 YR4, many scientists are hoping it will strike the Moon. "The possibility of getting a chance for an observation of a sizeable Moon impact is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view," Moissl said. It could offer up a range of information that would be "valuable for planetary defence purposes," he added. Mark Burchell, a space scientist at the UK's University of Kent, told New Scientist that a Moon hit would be "a great experiment and a perfect opportunity". And on Earth, "telescopes would certainly see it, I would say, and binoculars might see it," he added. The asteroid is the smallest object ever targeted by the Webb telescope. Webb's measurements of the space rock's thermal data indicate that it "does not share properties observed in larger asteroids", the European Space agency said in a statement. "This is likely a combination of its fast spin and lack of fine-grained sand on its surface," it said, adding that this was more common in fist-sized asteroids. More information will come when Webb again observes the asteroid again next month. dl/phz
Khaleej Times
03-04-2025
- Science
- Khaleej Times
Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit Moon
An huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has a nearly four percent chance of smashing into the Moon, according to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope. The asteroid, thought to be capable of levelling a city, set a new record in February for having the highest chance — 3.1 per cent — of hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured. Earth's planetary defence community leapt into action and further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid — called 2024 YR4 — will strike Earth on December 22, 2032. But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite have been steadily rising. After the Webb telescope turned its powerful gaze towards the asteroid last month, the chance of a Moon shot is now at 3.8 percent, NASA said. "There is still a 96.2 per cent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon," Nasa said in a statement on Thursday. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defence office, told AFP that this aligned with their internal estimates of around four percent. The new Webb data also shed light on the size of the space rock, which was previously estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres (131 to 295 feet). It is now believed to be 53 to 67 metres, roughly the height of a 15-storey building. This is significant because it is bigger than the 50-metre threshold for activating planetary defence plans. If the asteroid still had a more than one percent chance of hitting Earth, "the development of one or more deflection missions would already be starting now", Moissl said. There are a range of ideas for how Earth could fend off an oncoming asteroid, including nuclear weapons and lasers. But only one has been tested on an actual asteroid. In 2022, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory by smashing a spacecraft into it. 'Perfect opportunity' While no one wanted to need to test Earth's defences on the potentially hugely destructive asteroid 2024 YR4, many scientists are hoping it will strike the Moon. "The possibility of getting a chance for an observation of a sizeable Moon impact is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view," Moissl said. It could offer up a range of information that would be "valuable for planetary defence purposes," he added. Mark Burchell, a space scientist at the UK's University of Kent, told New Scientist that a Moon hit would be "a great experiment and a perfect opportunity". And on Earth, "telescopes would certainly see it, I would say, and binoculars might see it," he added. The asteroid is the smallest object ever targeted by the Webb telescope. Webb's measurements of the space rock's thermal data indicate that it "does not share properties observed in larger asteroids", the European Space agency said in a statement. "This is likely a combination of its fast spin and lack of fine-grained sand on its surface," it said, adding that this was more common in fist-sized asteroids. More information will come when Webb again observes the asteroid again next month.
Voice of America
12-03-2025
- Science
- Voice of America
Methods for Protecting Earth against an Asteroid Strike
Astronomers following asteroid activity in space estimate there is a very small chance an object large enough to destroy a whole city could strike Earth in 2032. But space agency officials say even if such an asteroid keeps heading on a path toward Earth, the world is now much better-equipped to defend itself against such a threat. The American space agency NASA recently estimated there was a 3.1 percent chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 would hit Earth on December 22, 2032. That is the highest probability predicted for such a large space rock in modern times. Richard Moissl is head of the European Space Agency's (ESA) planetary defense office. While recognizing the risk the asteroid could present, he told the French news agency AFP people should not panic over such predictions. Astronomers have noted that the more data they gather, the odds of a direct asteroid hit are expected to keep rising over time. However, scientists say at a certain point the odds will likely drop down to zero. Moissl said he thinks it is important to remember that even in the unlikely event the probability keeps rising to 100 percent, the world is "not defenseless." Here are some methods currently being considered as defensive measures to keep humanity safe in case there is a real threat. Send a spacecraft to hit it Only one planetary defense method has been tried against an asteroid. In 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) sent a spacecraft into the 160-meter-wide Dimorphos asteroid. The effort successfully changed the asteroid's orbit around a larger space rock. Bruce Betts is chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society. He told AFP that space agencies could hit the 2024 YR4 asteroid with several spacecrafts, observing how each one changed the path. The asteroid discovered in December is estimated to be 40-90 meters wide -- about half the size of Dimorphos. "You have to take care not to overdo it," Moissl warned. He said this is because if a spacecraft only partly destroys an asteroid, it could send smaller pieces of the space rock heading toward Earth. Non-contact methods A separate idea would involve sending a large spacecraft to fly alongside a threatening asteroid. The spacecraft would not touch the asteroid, but would use its gravitational force to pull it away from Earth. Moissl said another non-contact plan would put a spacecraft near the asteroid to eject a continuous flow of atoms to push the asteroid off course. Scientists have also considered painting one side of the asteroid white. They believe this could increase the light the object reflects to make it slowly change course. Contact methods One idea is to use a nuclear weapon against a threatening asteroid. In laboratory tests, researchers found that X-rays from a nuclear blast could move a rock. But this is considered more of a plan for kilometers-wide asteroids like the one that killed off the dinosaurs. And this method also carries the risk that a nuclear explosion could send additional pieces of the asteroid falling toward Earth. A similar method – but one considered less dangerous – would involve shooting laser beams from a spacecraft to destroy the side of an asteroid in an effort to push it away from Earth. If all else fails Moissl said that if all else fails, at least the world will have a good idea where a threatening asteroid would strike. Since astronomers believe most asteroids would at most threaten to destroy one city, efforts could be organized to get people out of an area before a strike. "Seven-and-a-half years is a long time to prepare," Moissl added. He also noted that even with the rising odds involving 2024 YR4, there is still about a 97 percent chance the asteroid will miss Earth. I'm Jill Robbins. Daniel Lawler with Issam Ahmed reported this story for Agence France-Presse. Jill Robbins adapted it for Learning English. ______________________________________________ Words in This Story asteroid - n. any of the small rocky celestial bodies found especially between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter reflect – v. of light or sound. to move in one direction, hit a surface, and then quickly move in a different and usually opposite direction What do you think of this story? Write to us in the Comments Section.
Al Arabiya
25-02-2025
- Science
- Al Arabiya
Chance huge asteroid will hit Earth down to 0.001 percent
The chance that a football field-sized asteroid capable of destroying a city will strike Earth in 2032 has fallen to 0.001 percent, the European Space Agency said on Tuesday. A week ago, the asteroid set a new record for having the highest probability of hitting Earth -- 3.1 percent according to NASA and 2.8 percent according to the ESA. The planetary defense community has been scanning the skies. However, as had been widely expected, fresh observations from telescopes around the world narrowed the area of uncertainty where the asteroid could strike, increasingly ruling out the odds of a direct hit. The ESA said the chance was now down to 0.001 percent, adding that the threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale was now at zero -- after hitting level three out of a possible 10 last week. The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, was discovered in December. It is estimated to be 40-90 meters (130 to 300 feet) wide, which means it has the potential to devastate a city. The impact date would have been December 22, 2032 -- but it is now extremely likely the asteroid will simply zoom past Earth. Despite the plummeting risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will still observe the asteroid in the coming months, the ESA said. Scientists had emphasized that even if the asteroid had been heading our way, Earth is now capable of fighting back. In the first test of our planetary defenses, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory in 2022 by smashing a spacecraft into it. Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defense office, told AFP that observing the asteroid -- then ruling out a direct hit -- was 'a very exciting and educational exercise.' Praising the early detection of the asteroid, he emphasized that 'there is still ample room for improvement.' Several new telescopes, such as the Vera Rubin and Flyeye, which are near becoming operational will enable astronomers to spot asteroids more quickly, Moissl said. So will Europe's planned early warning mission NEOMIR, he added. The last time an asteroid bigger than 30 meters wide posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking EartFh in 2029 -- a possibility also ruled out through additional observations.
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Chance huge asteroid will hit Earth down to 0.001 percent
The chance that a football field-sized asteroid capable of destroying a city will strike Earth in 2032 has fallen to 0.001 percent, the European Space Agency said on Tuesday. A week ago, the asteroid set a new record for having the highest probability of hitting Earth -- 3.1 percent according to NASA and 2.8 percent according to the ESA. The planetary defence community has been scanning the skies. However, as had been widely expected, fresh observations from telescopes around the world narrowed the area of uncertainty where the asteroid could strike, increasingly ruling out the odds of a direct hit. The ESA said the chance was now down to 0.001 percent, adding that the threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale was now at zero -- after hitting level three out of a possible 10 last week. The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, was discovered in December. It is estimated to be 40-90 metres (130 to 300 feet) wide, which means it has the potential to devastate a city. The impact date would have been December 22, 2032 -- but it is now extremely likely the asteroid will simply zoom past Earth. Despite the plummeting risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will still observe the asteroid in the coming months, the ESA said. Scientists had emphasised that even if the asteroid had been heading our way, Earth is now capable of fighting back. In the first test of our planetary defences, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory in 2022 by smashing a spacecraft into it. Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defence office, told AFP that observing the asteroid -- then ruling out a direct hit -- was "a very exciting and educational exercise". Praising the early detection of the asteroid, he emphasised that "there is still ample room for improvement". Several new telescopes, such as the Vera Rubin and Flyeye, which are near becoming operational will enable astronomers to spot asteroids more quickly, Moissl said. So will Europe's planned early warning mission NEOMIR, he added. The last time an asteroid bigger than 30 metres wide posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 -- a possibility also ruled out through additional observations. dl/tw
