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New York Times
02-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Do NFL teams adjust internal trade charts based on how a draft class is perceived?
The 2025 NFL draft class is widely regarded as as one of the weakest in recent memory, which could have significant impacts on trade charts and draft-day deals. The Dallas Cowboys currently hold the No. 12 overall pick, but with several potential starters expected to be available on the second day of the draft, should Jerry Jones trade down to secure an extra day two pick? Advertisement With the lack of excitement surrounding this year's class, will teams adjust their trade charts accordingly? This was one listener's question that Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen (and executive producer Michael Beller) delved into on the latest Monday Mailbag episode of 'The Athletic Football Show.' A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Michael: Randy Lee, coming with our first question, said, 'I've heard a number of people describe this year's draft by saying, 'All the players from about 10 to 50 are the same,' which sounds about right to me. Although I want my team to trade back from 12, (so this is a Cowboys fan) I can't believe that you would get very much in return this year. So my question is this, assuming the teams agree that players from around 10 to 50 have very little difference, have they modified their internal trade value charts to reflect that in this class?' Robert, why don't you take this one first? Robert: I really liked the question to the point where I reached out to a couple of people just to ask. People in analytics departments and people who handle trade value charts. The responses were what I thought they were going to be. The chart itself doesn't change, but the premium you're willing to pay on the chart changes based on circumstances. The same way that if you were trading up for the number one pick because you wanted a quarterback, there would be a premium you'd have to pay for that. Or even if you're trading in the top five for a quarterback, it's understood that there's markup on those sorts of trades. If there's an understanding that the talent level is flat for a good portion of the draft, you take the opposite approach where there's a lack of a premium. Maybe if you'd pay 1.5 times as much to get the quarterback, here you'd pay 0.8 times as much based on the chart. The chart itself doesn't change, but what you're willing to pay to make the trade changes. Advertisement Derrik: That makes a lot of sense. I didn't come at this from that angle — what are the premiums you're willing to pay and all that stuff. I came at it from the angle of, 'This is probably true in more draft classes than you would want to believe.' Where there is a drop off of elite players after 12 or 13. I think it was the Kyle Hamilton draft (in 2022), where Hamilton went (to the Baltimore Ravens with the No. 14 pick), the next pick was Kenyon Green (to the Houston Texans with the No. 15 pick), and then there were almost no good players after that. Robert: That's even more than you typically think in a given draft. He was picked in the middle half of the first round. Derrik: Exactly. So that dynamic exists more than we would want to believe. Because the draft is, truthfully, all about selling hope to people. Realistically, in most draft classes, the number can slightly shift from around nine to 14 of how many truly special prospects there are. For the most part, once you get to the back half of the first round, you do start to get into the territory where pick 20 is no different than pick 45. It just becomes the eye of the beholder. Even in last year's class, were Xavier Legette (No. 32 overall pick by the Carolina Panthers) or Ricky Pearsall (the No. 31 overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers) actual first-round prospects? Probably not. It's just that once you're picking in that range of the first round, it becomes the eye of the beholder for any of those 50 prospects. Robert: It's funny that you say this because I think this idea has been baked into the way modern draft charts are built, period. The way this jumped to the top of my brain as we were preparing for this show, and there's a question we're going to answer later about the Jahmyr Gibbs pick. If you look at the trade down with the Detroit Lions when they went from six to 12, in part of that deal, they moved up from 81 to 34. If you look at the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart on Over the Cap, which is a smoother chart than the Jimmy Johnson chart, and probably a little bit more true to how these things are actually valued, going from 34 to 81 in terms of points is actually a fifth-round pick. You would think that type of jump from the bottom half of the third round to the top of the second round would be worth more than the chart would say is a fifth-round pick, but that's not the case. So there really is more of a smoothness to this than people probably think, especially when you get outside of the tippy top of the draft. You can listen to full episodes of 'The Athletic Football Show' for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube.
Yahoo
24-03-2025
- Yahoo
'Absolutely gutted': Cain Velasquez's prison verdict ignites outrage, condemnation across MMA
The three-year saga of Cain Velasquez ended Monday as the former two-time UFC heavyweight champion was sentenced to five years in prison on a litany of charges, including attempted murder, for his role in a 2022 attempted shooting of the man accused of molesting Velasquez's then 4-year-old son. Velasquez's sentence includes time already served. The verdict came down Monday at the Santa Clara County Hall of Justice in San Jose by Superior Court Judge Arthur Bocanegra, who reportedly delivered his sentence with "tears in his eyes." Velasquez's plight has been the subject of intense debate and scrutiny because of the sensitive nature of the case. Velasquez, 42, faced 10 felony charges after engaging in an 11-mile high-speed car chase with Harry Goularte, who is accused of molesting Velasquez's then 4-year-old son on 'multiple occasions." Velasquez fired several shots through his windshield from a .40-caliber handgun during the chase into a car carrying Goularte, Goularte's mother and Goularte's stepfather Paul Bender, resulting in non-life threatening injuries to Bender due to a gunshot wound to his arm. Goularte currently awaits his own June 2 trial date after pleading not guilty to one charge of lewd acts with a minor, and Velasquez's family has filed a separate civil lawsuit against the Goularte family and their businesses. Velasquez, a decorated heavyweights who twice captured the UFC heavyweight title before retiring in 2019, expressed remorse for his actions and accepted whatever punishment came his way in a recent interview on the podcast of former teammate Kyle Kingsbury. Given the prolonged nature of the case and Velasquez's standing within the sport, Monday's prison verdict ignited widespread reaction across MMA, some of which can be seen below. Heartbroken for Cain and his family. — Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) March 24, 2025 Cain shouldn't serve any jail time. In the heat of the moment, what man wouldn't have a lapse in judgement to protect his family. The focus should be on the man that committed crimes much worse than what Cain did. I'm thankful he only has to serve 5 years instead of 30. — Michael Chiesa (@MikeMav22) March 24, 2025 #FREECAIN — Jorge Masvidal (@GamebredFighter) March 24, 2025 #FREEcainVELASQUEZ — Derek Brunson (@DerekBrunson) March 24, 2025 This is awful !! — Chris Weidman (@chrisweidman) March 24, 2025 Monday Mailbag!Cain gets 5 years. Not the 30 years to life they were asking for. Hopefully, Trump gives him the hunter Biden treatment. What do you think? FAIR OR NOT — Roy Nelson (@roynelsonmma) March 24, 2025 With time served to shorten the 5 years, this is a small win, no time served would have obviously been better, but this could have ended up so much worse🙌🏼 #Freecainvelasquez ❤️ — Joe Joe Giannetti 💀 (@Giannettimma) March 24, 2025 Damn… — Alan Jouban (@AlanJouban) March 24, 2025 Well if that's the case, all in all a good result when you consider how fucked the justice system is. Absolutely gutted for Cain and his family. You'll be out in no time champ. You are forever a legend to us and a hero to your family — Oban Elliott Official (@obanelliottufc) March 24, 2025 Please say that's 2.5 years on good behaviour? — Oban Elliott Official (@obanelliottufc) March 24, 2025 This is why I will never live in California, they tried to give this man 30 years for protecting his family and the person who violated his family is still walking in the streets — Ali Abdelaziz (@AliAbdelaziz00) March 24, 2025 #FREECAIN — DT (@darrentill2) March 24, 2025 #FREECAIN — GILBERT BURNS DURINHO (@GilbertDurinho) March 24, 2025
New York Times
24-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How long should teams wait to draft a quarterback this year?
The NFL Combine is getting underway, and Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward are among the prospects looking to impress. Neither quarterback is a lock to be drafted in the top 10, but their time in Indianapolis will be vital if they are to stand any chance of changing the narrative around them. Considering neither player is viewed as a needle-mover at the quarterback spot, should teams be looking to draft other pieces early? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen delved into that listener question and others on the latest Monday Mailbag episode of 'The Athletic Football Show.' A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Robert: A question here from Mitch Weinberg (listener). 'I was listening to your Top 100 episode from last week with Dane (Brugler) and I was struck by something you mentioned. You said, 'Where the quarterbacks would go will be defined by how many teams feel like they have to leave the top ten of the first round with a quarterback.' I was thinking it through and was surprised by how many teams had guys that have been spoken about highly enough and it feels like they wouldn't be looking for an upgrade. Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Lamar (Jackson), (Joe) Burrow,' he goes through a huge portion on this list. So Mitch says, 'How can you reconcile the fact that quarterback play, that's more than simply workable, is the most sought-after thing in the sport and arguably the hardest thing to find with the fact that half of the league seems to have a guy who reaches that level. Do you think this should impact team building on some level? Should some teams be more willing to wait to draft a guy highly and pick up other pieces when you might find a B to B-plus starter through later picks or the veteran market? What do you think about this?' Advertisement Derrik: Yes because I mostly agree that you can wait on quarterbacks. I know that sounds crazy; if you believe in a guy then go and make the swing for him. But with this class in particular and even some of the guys in last year's class, quarterback to me is the one position where if you draft a guy and he's a seven out of 10, I just don't know if that accomplishes the thing that you wanted to accomplish. It'll feel nice for the three or four years that he's getting rookie deal money and you can maybe squeeze something out of that. But this is the one position where you are making a 12-year bet that you can find a guy. Unless you are very certain that you can get that guy, and obviously there is some degree of, 'Nobody knows anything so maybe you just take the swing,' but you can't unless you are 100 percent certain in the guy that you are drafting. I'm fine with some of the teams even at the top of this draft like the Tennessee Titans, or whoever it is, to take Travis Hunter if they don't feel that good about Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. I am totally fine with that type of team building if you are not certain that you can get the guy. Because there is probably more examples of quarterbacks picked at eight and 10 that end up really good than guys who have to go one or two. There are more of those guys who work out. Not everyone is going to find Dak Prescott in the fourth round, but waiting a little bit is probably fine. Robert: I had a conversation with a head coach at the combine two years ago. They were in the quarterback market, and he said to me, 'Here is the list of quarterbacks that you want in order.' In terms of what types of quarterbacks they are and how you're paying them. 'The first thing you want is a blue-chip quarterback on a rookie deal.' It's self-evident, a (Patrick) Mahomes, (Josh) Allen and (Joe)Burrow before they get paid. That's the best thing. 'The next best thing is a blue-chip quarterback on a market extension.' So you still want Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar (Jackson) even if you've paid them over Brock Purdy for example. And I don't even think that's a knock on Brock Purdy, we could all probably agree on that. The blue-chip guys are still what you want. 'After that, you want the rookie deal quarterback, that becomes the next most valuable thing because of what you can build around them.' If those are the three things and if you're playing the percentages with that, I still feel the draft is the best way to hit on those options in the aggregate. The guys that have hit on the more creative solutions, whether it's (Sam) Darnold, Geno (Smith) or Baker (Mayfield) recently — those mid-tier veteran reclamation projects. Those teams only landed there because their initial plan at quarterback ran out of road, or ran its course. The Vikings with Kirk Cousins, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson, and Baker was necessary in part for the Buccaneers because of the middle ground that (Tom) Brady had left them in. So I still think that trying to find a guy in the draft and saying, 'Best case scenario, he is a blue-chip guy eventually. Worst case scenario, he's somebody workable on a rookie deal' — that's still the route that I would go. You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic Football Show for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube. (Top Photo:)
New York Times
17-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Bills vs. Ravens: Who would you rather be over the next three years?
The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are two teams desperate to get their hands on the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Both have been one game away from a Super Bowl showdown in the past two seasons, yet both were stopped in their tracks by the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams have MVPs at the quarterback position, and both play in a stacked AFC. Advertisement But which franchise is best placed to take that crucial next step over the next three years? That was just one of the listener questions Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dug into during their 'Monday Mailbag' episode of 'The Athletic Football Show.' Let us know which team you'd back in the comments. A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Robert: Andrew Constantino (listener) says, 'Both the Bills and Ravens have had heartbreaking endings to their seasons the last few years. Both teams have elite quarterbacks who should keep them in contention every year. Who do you think is closer to contention? How do you contrast the Bills with the Ravens? I think both teams are so close.' The reason I put this question in is that I read it and I was like, 'I'm sure I have an answer.' And then as I started thinking about it I thought, 'I'm not sure I do. I don't think that there's an easy answer.' Did your mind immediately go to one of the two teams when you were thinking about this? Derrik: No… Robert: It's really hard. Derrik: When did the Bills and Chiefs play? Week 13 or something like that? It was right before that when I said that the Bills were the best team in football. Then very shortly after that we started to believe that the Ravens' defense was actually good and this wasn't just a little blip, they were starting to turn things around. But there was one point where I believed the Bills were the best team in football. Then when the Ravens really started to put things together on defense, there was probably a case that they were the best team in football down the stretch there. I really don't know who I think is closer. If you just looked at the rosters today, maybe because of some of the health stuff that the Bills had on defense for a lot of the year you could say, 'If they get a lot of their guys healthy maybe they're a little bit closer.' But even that feels a little bit off. If I really had to make a very fine argument; the Ravens might lose Ronnie Stanley so that makes them a little bit further away than the Bills are. Advertisement Robert: The margins are thin because when you're talking about an impact player at a high-level position — the Ravens are set to lose one and the Bills are not. The Bills are going to bring back their offensive line intact next year. The Bills are also going to bring back all of their pass catchers next year outside of Amari Cooper, who really wasn't a huge factor by the end of this season anyway. I get it because that's a good way to think about it. I also think that you could make a really serious argument that the Ravens are better positioned to have more difference-makers on defense heading into next year than the Bills with (Nnamdi) Madubuike. Roquan Smith had a down year this year, but he's generally been a very good player. And with (Kyle) Hamilton and somebody like Nate Wiggins being an ascending player who had a solid rookie year, you could make an argument that the ceiling is higher for Baltimore on defense because of some of the individual pieces that they have. That might be the tipping point for me even when we consider the Ronnie Stanley part of this. Derrik: That's a good argument, too. You can see why their ceiling would be higher because Buffalo would have to make the Myles Garrett trade for me to believe that their ceiling on defense could be as high as Baltimore's. Then with both of the offenses, as long as it's not a complete (mess) around the quarterback, they'll probably be fine. With the defense having a little bit more pop with the Ravens, maybe they are the team that is closer. This is why it's a good question because I still believe what I said about Ronnie Stanley, but then you saying that about the defense also scares me a little bit. Robert: I really don't know where I land on this. I truly don't know, it's such a coin flip. I'm going to say the Ravens for the reasons that I just laid out. But I don't know if I believe that's true because with what the Bills have on offense with the line and with (Josh) Allen. That's the bet that I would consistently make. But with the way that Lamar (Jackson) played this year, I don't know what to do with it. I just don't think there's really one answer. Here's my cop-out… it'll depend on what happens this offseason. You can listen to full episodes of 'The Athletic Football Show' for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube. (Top Photo:)
