How long should teams wait to draft a quarterback this year?

New York Times

24-02-2025

The NFL Combine is getting underway, and Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward are among the prospects looking to impress.
Neither quarterback is a lock to be drafted in the top 10, but their time in Indianapolis will be vital if they are to stand any chance of changing the narrative around them.
Considering neither player is viewed as a needle-mover at the quarterback spot, should teams be looking to draft other pieces early? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen delved into that listener question and others on the latest Monday Mailbag episode of 'The Athletic Football Show.'
A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in 'The Athletic Football Show' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Robert: A question here from Mitch Weinberg (listener). 'I was listening to your Top 100 episode from last week with Dane (Brugler) and I was struck by something you mentioned. You said, 'Where the quarterbacks would go will be defined by how many teams feel like they have to leave the top ten of the first round with a quarterback.' I was thinking it through and was surprised by how many teams had guys that have been spoken about highly enough and it feels like they wouldn't be looking for an upgrade. Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Lamar (Jackson), (Joe) Burrow,' he goes through a huge portion on this list. So Mitch says, 'How can you reconcile the fact that quarterback play, that's more than simply workable, is the most sought-after thing in the sport and arguably the hardest thing to find with the fact that half of the league seems to have a guy who reaches that level. Do you think this should impact team building on some level? Should some teams be more willing to wait to draft a guy highly and pick up other pieces when you might find a B to B-plus starter through later picks or the veteran market? What do you think about this?'
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Derrik: Yes because I mostly agree that you can wait on quarterbacks. I know that sounds crazy; if you believe in a guy then go and make the swing for him. But with this class in particular and even some of the guys in last year's class, quarterback to me is the one position where if you draft a guy and he's a seven out of 10, I just don't know if that accomplishes the thing that you wanted to accomplish. It'll feel nice for the three or four years that he's getting rookie deal money and you can maybe squeeze something out of that. But this is the one position where you are making a 12-year bet that you can find a guy. Unless you are very certain that you can get that guy, and obviously there is some degree of, 'Nobody knows anything so maybe you just take the swing,' but you can't unless you are 100 percent certain in the guy that you are drafting. I'm fine with some of the teams even at the top of this draft like the Tennessee Titans, or whoever it is, to take Travis Hunter if they don't feel that good about Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. I am totally fine with that type of team building if you are not certain that you can get the guy. Because there is probably more examples of quarterbacks picked at eight and 10 that end up really good than guys who have to go one or two. There are more of those guys who work out. Not everyone is going to find Dak Prescott in the fourth round, but waiting a little bit is probably fine.
Robert: I had a conversation with a head coach at the combine two years ago. They were in the quarterback market, and he said to me, 'Here is the list of quarterbacks that you want in order.' In terms of what types of quarterbacks they are and how you're paying them. 'The first thing you want is a blue-chip quarterback on a rookie deal.' It's self-evident, a (Patrick) Mahomes, (Josh) Allen and (Joe)Burrow before they get paid. That's the best thing. 'The next best thing is a blue-chip quarterback on a market extension.' So you still want Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar (Jackson) even if you've paid them over Brock Purdy for example. And I don't even think that's a knock on Brock Purdy, we could all probably agree on that. The blue-chip guys are still what you want. 'After that, you want the rookie deal quarterback, that becomes the next most valuable thing because of what you can build around them.'
If those are the three things and if you're playing the percentages with that, I still feel the draft is the best way to hit on those options in the aggregate. The guys that have hit on the more creative solutions, whether it's (Sam) Darnold, Geno (Smith) or Baker (Mayfield) recently — those mid-tier veteran reclamation projects. Those teams only landed there because their initial plan at quarterback ran out of road, or ran its course. The Vikings with Kirk Cousins, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson, and Baker was necessary in part for the Buccaneers because of the middle ground that (Tom) Brady had left them in. So I still think that trying to find a guy in the draft and saying, 'Best case scenario, he is a blue-chip guy eventually. Worst case scenario, he's somebody workable on a rookie deal' — that's still the route that I would go.
You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic Football Show for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube.
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