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Business Standard
3 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
RBI's interest rate decision, global cues likely to drive markets this week
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and developments on the tariffs front would also guide investors' sentiment, experts noted. "Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6. Additionally, with the new month beginning, participants will track high-frequency data including auto sales numbers and other economic indicators. Updates on the progress of monsoon and the trend in FII flows will also be closely monitored," Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. Globally, developments in the US bond market and any updates regarding the ongoing trade negotiations will continue to influence investor sentiment, he added. The Indian economy expanded at a faster pace than expected in the last quarter of the 2024-25 fiscal, helping clock a 6.5 per cent growth rate in the year that elevated its size to USD 3.9 trillion and held promise of crossing the world's fourth-largest economy Japan in FY26. The economy grew at 7.4 per cent in January-March - the fourth and final quarter of April 2024 to March 2025 fiscal (FY25) - reflecting a strong cyclical rebound that was helped by a rise in private consumption and robust growth in construction and manufacturing. Meanwhile PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week would also influence trading in the market. "This week, interest rate-sensitive sectorsparticularly PSU banksare likely to remain in focus amid growing hopes of an RBI rate cut. Additionally, the release of monthly auto sales and volume data could trigger sector-specific moves in the automobile space," Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Last week, the BSE benchmark declined 270.07 points or 0.33 per cent and the NSE Nifty dipped 102.45 points or 0.41 per cent. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said, "The market is pricing in a 25 bps cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors. The positive macroeconomic scripts can boost investor sentiments, but stability in the broader market will be contingent on strong earnings growth and receding trade tensions.
Mint
5 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
RBIs interest rate decision, macroeco data, global trends to drive stock mkts this week: Analysts
New Delhi, RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors and developments on the tariffs front would also guide investors' sentiment, experts noted. "Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for June 6. Additionally, with the new month beginning, participants will track high-frequency data including auto sales numbers and other economic indicators. Updates on the progress of monsoon and the trend in FII flows will also be closely monitored," Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. Globally, developments in the US bond market and any updates regarding the ongoing trade negotiations will continue to influence investor sentiment, he added. The Indian economy expanded at a faster pace than expected in the last quarter of the 2024-25 fiscal, helping clock a 6.5 per cent growth rate in the year that elevated its size to USD 3.9 trillion and held promise of crossing the world's fourth-largest economy Japan in FY26. The economy grew at 7.4 per cent in January-March - the fourth and final quarter of April 2024 to March 2025 fiscal - reflecting a strong cyclical rebound that was helped by a rise in private consumption and robust growth in construction and manufacturing. Meanwhile PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week would also influence trading in the market. "This week, interest rate-sensitive sectors—particularly PSU banks—are likely to remain in focus amid growing hopes of an RBI rate cut. Additionally, the release of monthly auto sales and volume data could trigger sector-specific moves in the automobile space," Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Last week, the BSE benchmark declined 270.07 points or 0.33 per cent and the NSE Nifty dipped 102.45 points or 0.41 per cent. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said, "The market is pricing in a 25 bps cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors. The positive macroeconomic scripts can boost investor sentiments, but stability in the broader market will be contingent on strong earnings growth and receding trade tensions." This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Mint
11 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Week Ahead: RBI policy, auto sales, FII flow, US tariffs, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market logged a second consecutive week of consolidation, but also a third straight monthly gain, supported by steady institutional inflows and earnings momentum despite geopolitical and trade concerns. Next, investors will monitor key market triggers in the first week of the new month. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), global tariff announcements, monthly auto sales, foreign capital flow, macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction. Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 witnessed volatility through the week and settled at 81,451.01 and 24,750.70, respectively. The frontline indices shed 0.4 per cent during the week and overall, wavered early in May following a flare-up in tensions with Pakistan but rebounded after both nations agreed to a ceasefire. "Despite the weekly downturn, both benchmark indices remained comfortably above their key moving averages, signaling resilience in the broader market trend," said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. Government data released post-market hours on Friday revealed that India's growth pace slowed to 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2024-25 (FY25), below FY24 levels. The momentum picked up in the January-March quarter of FY25 to 7.4 per cent. "The domestic economic indicators are favourable, like a better monsoon forecast, a benign inflation trajectory, and pleasant Q4 GDP growth, which may protect the downside. The positive macroeconomic scripts can boost investor sentiments, but stability in the broader market will be contingent on strong earnings growth and receding trade tensions," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd. This week, the primary market will witness more action, with some new initial public offerings (IPO) and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, along with policy outcomes. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the outcome of the RBI's MPC meeting scheduled for Friday, June 6, 2025. The central bank's stance on the near-term interest rate trajectory, especially amid mixed macroeconomic signals, will be critical in shaping the market direction. Additionally, with the new month beginning, participants will track high-frequency data, including auto sales numbers and other economic indicators. Analysts say the market is pricing in a 25 bps rate cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors. No new mainboard IPOs will open for subscription this week, In the SME segment, one new issue will open for bidding. Among listings, shares of Leela Hotels (Schloss Bangalore Limited) and Aegis Vopak Terminals will debut on stock exchanges BSE and NSE on June 2, 2025. The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in the cash market, offloading approximately ₹ 418 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained robustly bullish, injecting a substantial ₹ 33,144 crore into the cash market, providing critical support to the indices. 'The change in FII strategy in India, which began in April, continues in May. FIIs were continuous sellers in India in the first three months of this year. The big selling began in January ( ₹ 78,027 crore) when the dollar index peaked at 111 in mid-January,' said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd. Thereafter, the intensity of selling declined. FIIs turned buyers in April with a buy figure of ₹ 4,243 crore. In May up to 30th, FIIs bought equity for ₹ 18,082 crore through the exchanges. Global macros like declining dollar, slowing US and Chinese economies and domestic macros like high GDP growth and declining inflation and interest rates are the factors driving FII inflows into India. 'FIIs have been buyers in autos, components, telecom and financials in the first half of May. India's better-than- expected GDP growth in Q4 FY25 at 7.4 per cent is an indicator that growth is rebounding and this can lead to revival of corporate earnings in FY26. FIIs are likely to continue their investment in India. However, at higher levels, they might sell since valuations are getting stretched,' he added. Last week, concerns surrounding rising US bond yields, trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU), and the ongoing legal battle over US tariffs weighed on market sentiment, limiting the scope for any meaningful recovery. Investor sentiment was tempered by renewed uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, after the temporary reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs—following their brief removal—introduced volatility in global markets. Globally, developments in the US bond market and any updates regarding ongoing trade negotiations will continue to influence investor sentiment. Investors will keenly watch out for any movement in the US dollar, US bond yields, the impact of US trade and tariff-related announcements, and crude oil prices. "A fair share of trade tensions with the temporary pause and the subsequent reinstatement of Trump's reciprocal trade policies reiterate that the global market may contend with macroeconomic concerns, which may continue to create ripple effects in the emerging markets," said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Ltd. Shares of Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), INOX India, Bank of Baroda, Container Corporation of India (CONCOR) among several others will trade ex-dividend next week starting from Monday, June 2. Shares of some stocks will also trade ex-bonus and ex-split. Check full list here Technically, the Nifty 50 index is expected to soon make a directional move. A strong close above 25,200 could rekindle bullish momentum. Read full technical analysis here Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
Reuters
13 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
BoE's Breeden sees loosening labour market and disinflation, Sunday Times reports
MANCHESTER, England, May 31 (Reuters) - Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden highlighted a weakening labour market and slow economic growth in an interview published on Saturday, adding that "waves of disinflation are continuing". She told the Sunday Times that the central bank's narrative about continuing interest rate cuts was "not a million miles away from where the market is". Breeden, deputy governor for financial stability, is widely regarded as a centrist on the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee. In May, she voted with the majority to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, in a three-way split vote where two members voted to hold rates, and another two voted for a larger cut. "The big picture, the landscape on which I'm thinking about policy, is that the waves of disinflation are continuing," Breeden said. "I think the labour market is loosening. We've seen unemployment rise a little bit, and in addition we've got relatively weak growth." She added that she had no pre-determined path for interest rates. Financial markets on Friday priced between two and three more quarter-point interest rate cuts between now and the end of the year, while a Reuters poll of economists published last week pointed to two.
IOL News
a day ago
- Business
- IOL News
South African Reserve Bank cuts repo rate to support struggling workers
In a positive move for South African workers grappling with rising debt levels, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) this week announced a reduction in the repo rate by 25 basis points, lowering it to 7.25%. This decision comes as a welcome relief for many households facing financial difficulties and aims to stimulate broader economic recovery. Governor Lesetja Kganyago revealed that the decision is accompanied by a more favourable outlook for consumer price inflation (CPI). This raises the possibility of an additional reduction of 25 basis points later this year, provided that both global and domestic economic conditions remain conducive to a low CPI.
