Latest news with #MonexEurope
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Dollar mired in U.S. economic weakness and trade limbo
The dollar was headed for a weekly loss on Friday, undermined by signs of fragility in the U.S. economy and as trade negotiations between Washington and its trading partners made little progress despite a looming deadline. Key for markets will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, which will draw greater scrutiny after a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data this week underscored the headwinds from President Donald Trump's tariffs. Currencies were taken on a round trip overnight, with most surging against the dollar initially on optimism that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in a more than one-hour-long call, before paring some of their gains. The euro also got a further lift from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish rhetoric following a widely expected rate cut, which sent the common currency to a 1-1/2-month high of $1.1495 on Thursday. It last traded 0.05% higher at $1.1449. "We are inclined to treat Lagarde's a degree of caution, albeit given this shift in tone, we no longer see our previous forecast for a 1.50% terminal rate as the most likely outcome," said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. He now expects just one more rate cut in September which will take the deposit rate to 1.75%. Most currency pairs were also little changed in the early Asian session on Friday, with sterling up just 0.1% to $1.3583 having scaled a more than three-year top in the previous session. It was set to rise 0.9% for the week. The yen fell 0.1% to 143.74 per dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 98.72 after having hit a six-week low on Thursday, and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.7%. All eyes are now on Friday's jobs data to determine the next move in currencies. Expectations are for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 130,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with greater risks of a rise to 4.3%. "Within all the softness that we've seen in the data this week has probably been more responsible for rejuvenating the bearish U.S. dollar narrative than anything else that's gone on," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. "We've always taken the view that once it becomes clear that the U.S. economy is no longer exceptional, and that the policy actions that we've seen to date, together with the relative tightness of Fed policy, will start to show through particularly in a weakening labor market. Hence the importance of tonight's numbers." Adding to headwinds for the dollar, investors remain worried about U.S. trade negotiations and the lack of progress in hashing out deals ahead of an early July deadline. The highly anticipated call between Trump and Xi also provided little clarity and the spotlight on it was quickly stolen by a public fallout between Trump and Elon Musk. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar ticked up 0.06% to $0.6512, and was set for a 1.1% weekly rise. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.17% to $0.6048 and was also headed for a 1.1% weekly gain.
Business Recorder
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Dollar mired in US economic weakness and trade limbo
SINGAPORE: The dollar was headed for a weekly loss on Friday, undermined by signs of fragility in the U.S. economy and as trade negotiations between Washington and its trading partners made little progress despite a looming deadline. Key for markets will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, which will draw greater scrutiny after a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data this week underscored the headwinds from President Donald Trump's tariffs. Currencies were taken on a round trip overnight, with most surging against the dollar initially on optimism that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in a more than one-hour-long call, before paring some of their gains. The euro also got a further lift from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish rhetoric following a widely expected rate cut, which sent the common currency to a 1-1/2-month high of $1.1495 on Thursday. It last traded 0.05% higher at $1.1449. 'We are inclined to treat Lagarde's hawkishness…with a degree of caution, albeit given this shift in tone, we no longer see our previous forecast for a 1.50% terminal rate as the most likely outcome,' said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. He now expects just one more rate cut in September which will take the deposit rate to 1.75%. Most currency pairs were also little changed in the early Asian session on Friday, with sterling up just 0.1% to $1.3583 having scaled a more than three-year top in the previous session. It was set to rise 0.9% for the week. The yen fell 0.1% to 143.74 per dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 98.72 after having hit a six-week low on Thursday, and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.7%. All eyes are now on Friday's jobs data to determine the next move in currencies. Expectations are for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 130,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with greater risks of a rise to 4.3%. 'Within all the noise…the softness that we've seen in the data this week has probably been more responsible for rejuvenating the bearish U.S. dollar narrative than anything else that's gone on,' said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. Dollar feeble on soft economic data, trade uncertainties 'We've always taken the view that once it becomes clear that the U.S. economy is no longer exceptional, and that the policy actions that we've seen to date, together with the relative tightness of Fed policy, will start to show through particularly in a weakening labour market. Hence the importance of tonight's numbers.' Adding to headwinds for the dollar, investors remain worried about U.S. trade negotiations and the lack of progress in hashing out deals ahead of an early July deadline. The highly anticipated call between Trump and Xi also provided little clarity and the spotlight on it was quickly stolen by a public fallout between Trump and Elon Musk. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar ticked up 0.06% to $0.6512, and was set for a 1.1% weekly rise. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.17% to $0.6048 and was also headed for a 1.1% weekly gain.
New Straits Times
4 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
Dollar mired in US economic weakness and trade limbo
SINGAPORE: The dollar was headed for a weekly loss on Friday, undermined by signs of fragility in the US economy and as trade negotiations between Washington and its trading partners made little progress despite a looming deadline. Key for markets will be the US nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, which will draw greater scrutiny after a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data this week underscored the headwinds from President Donald Trump's tariffs. Currencies were taken on a round trip overnight, with most surging against the dollar initially on optimism that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in a more than one-hour-long call, before paring some of their gains. The euro also got a further lift from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish rhetoric following a widely expected rate cut, which sent the common currency to a 1-1/2-month high of US$1.1495 on Thursday. It last traded 0.05 per cent higher at US$1.1449. "We are inclined to treat Lagarde's a degree of caution, albeit given this shift in tone, we no longer see our previous forecast for a 1.50 per cent terminal rate as the most likely outcome," said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. He now expects just one more rate cut in September which will take the deposit rate to 1.75 per cent. Most currency pairs were also little changed in the early Asian session on Friday, with sterling up just 0.1 per cent to US$1.3583 having scaled a more than three-year top in the previous session. It was set to rise 0.9 per cent for the week. The yen fell 0.1 per cent to 143.74 per dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 98.72 after having hit a six-week low on Thursday, and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.7 per cent. All eyes are now on Friday's jobs data to determine the next move in currencies. Expectations are for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 130,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2 per cent, with greater risks of a rise to 4.3 per cent. "Within all the softness that we've seen in the data this week has probably been more responsible for rejuvenating the bearish US dollar narrative than anything else that's gone on," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. "We've always taken the view that once it becomes clear that the US economy is no longer exceptional, and that the policy actions that we've seen to date, together with the relative tightness of Fed policy, will start to show through particularly in a weakening labour market. Hence the importance of tonight's numbers." Adding to headwinds for the dollar, investors remain worried about US trade negotiations and the lack of progress in hashing out deals ahead of an early July deadline. The highly anticipated call between Trump and Xi also provided little clarity and the spotlight on it was quickly stolen by a public fallout between Trump and Elon Musk. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar ticked up 0.06 per cent to US$0.6512, and was set for a 1.1 per cent weekly rise. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.17 per cent to US$0.6048 and was also headed for a 1.1 per cent weekly gain.
Wall Street Journal
13-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Sterling Overlooks U.K. Labor Report Due to Data Quality Issues
0857 GMT – Data quality issues surrounding the official U.K. labor market report means sterling traders largely overlooked Tuesday's data release, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. As with other G-10 currencies, U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT are the main event for sterling, they say. This poses 'further downside risks to the pound against the dollar.' Speeches from Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at 0945 GMT and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey at 1600 GMT will also garner attention. Sterling rises 0.3% to $1.3210. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8412 pounds. The U.K. unemployment rate rose to 4.5% and wage growth excluding bonuses eased to 5.6% in the three months to March, official data showed. ( 0854 GMT – The dollar could receive some support if data later show U.S. core inflation remained sticky in April, ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note. That would 'feed into the narrative that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates.' This month markets have scaled back rate-cut bets and pushed back expectations for the next cut until September, he says. Economists in a WSJ survey expect the data at 1230 GMT to show core inflation rose to 0.3% month-on-month in April compared to 0.1% in March. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 101.541, having reached a one-month high of 101.977 on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day reprieve in tariffs. (
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Sterling Overlooks U.K. Labor Report Due to Data Quality Issues
Sterling rose against the dollar, and data-quality issues with the official U.K. labor market report meant sterling largely overlooked the release, Monex Europe said.
