Dollar mired in U.S. economic weakness and trade limbo

CNBC

17 hours ago

The dollar was headed for a weekly loss on Friday, undermined by signs of fragility in the U.S. economy and as trade negotiations between Washington and its trading partners made little progress despite a looming deadline.
Key for markets will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, which will draw greater scrutiny after a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data this week underscored the headwinds from President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Currencies were taken on a round trip overnight, with most surging against the dollar initially on optimism that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in a more than one-hour-long call, before paring some of their gains.
The euro also got a further lift from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish rhetoric following a widely expected rate cut, which sent the common currency to a 1-1/2-month high of $1.1495 on Thursday.
It last traded 0.05% higher at $1.1449.
"We are inclined to treat Lagarde's hawkishness...with a degree of caution, albeit given this shift in tone, we no longer see our previous forecast for a 1.50% terminal rate as the most likely outcome," said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe.
He now expects just one more rate cut in September which will take the deposit rate to 1.75%.
Most currency pairs were also little changed in the early Asian session on Friday, with sterling up just 0.1% to $1.3583 having scaled a more than three-year top in the previous session. It was set to rise 0.9% for the week.
The yen fell 0.1% to 143.74 per dollar.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 98.72 after having hit a six-week low on Thursday, and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.7%.
All eyes are now on Friday's jobs data to determine the next move in currencies.
Expectations are for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 130,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with greater risks of a rise to 4.3%.
"Within all the noise...the softness that we've seen in the data this week has probably been more responsible for rejuvenating the bearish U.S. dollar narrative than anything else that's gone on," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank.
"We've always taken the view that once it becomes clear that the U.S. economy is no longer exceptional, and that the policy actions that we've seen to date, together with the relative tightness of Fed policy, will start to show through particularly in a weakening labor market. Hence the importance of tonight's numbers."
Adding to headwinds for the dollar, investors remain worried about U.S. trade negotiations and the lack of progress in hashing out deals ahead of an early July deadline.
The highly anticipated call between Trump and Xi also provided little clarity and the spotlight on it was quickly stolen by a public fallout between Trump and Elon Musk.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar ticked up 0.06% to $0.6512, and was set for a 1.1% weekly rise.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.17% to $0.6048 and was also headed for a 1.1% weekly gain.