Latest news with #Moneyball:TheArtofWinninganUnfairGame
Daily Record
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- Daily Record
Brad Pitt fans have just days to watch 'best sports movie ever'
With a near-perfect 94 per cent score on Rotten Tomatoes, this Brad Pitt starrer has often been hailed as one of the best sports movies of all time. Leaving Netflix on June 21, fans have just days to watch the film. With a smashing 94 per cent score on review aggregator site Rotten Tomatoes, Brad Pitt's Moneyball is often regarded as one of the best sports movies of all time. Leaving Netflix on June 21, Moneyball is a 2011 biographical sports drama adapted for screen by Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian. It's based on Michael Lewis's 2003 book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. Directed by Bennett Miller, Moneyball sees Pitt joined by a stellar cast comprising Robin Wright, Jonah Hill, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Chris Pratt. Based on the life of Oakland Athletics' general manager Billy Beane (portrayed by Brad Pitt) and his use of unconventional data analytics to build a top-tier baseball team on a much more limited budget than others, this American sports drama delves into how Billy Beane challenged the traditional scouting methods and in turn, changed the sport forever. Moneyball received six Academy Awards nominations including Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, along with bagging a Best Actor nomination for Brad Pitt and a Best Supporting Actor nod for Jonah Hill. The film was also a commercial success, grossing $110.2 million worldwide against a production budget of $50 million. Speaking to NPR about portraying Billy Beane on screen, Brad Pitt said: 'I like him for his idiosyncrasies — that he can't watch the games without getting too emotional, that he often has food down his shirt, that he tends to break a few chairs now and then. These things make him human.' Moneyball received high praise from critics, with one reviewer saying: 'Moneyball is a winner, one of the freshest and smartest sports movies in years.' While one critic felt Bennett Miller's offering was 'an accomplished, bracingly intelligent film that scores points on all fronts,' another called it 'an engaging, almost exotic film'. Praise for Brad Pitt in Moneyball ran abound, as one reviewer commented: 'Starring Brad Pitt in top movie star form, it's a film that's impressive and surprising,' while another said: 'It is Pitt who is in every way, the heart of the movie, his natural confidence and grace a lovely balance to the formulas with Greek letters and the endless statistics.' Another critic said of the film: 'It's to the director's credit, and Pitt's, that Moneyball is anything but bloodless — in its own quiet, unspectacular way, this movie courses with life,' while another added: 'This is a subtle, elegant and altogether triumphant film about a subject I thought I was tired of, told with an artistry and freshness that is positively thrilling.' Audiences were left as taken with the Brad Pitt spectacle, with one viewer saying: 'All Time Classic. Acting is excellent. Everyone gives really good performances but Brad Pitt is excellent and just sends it over the top with an interesting character to boot. The music also is excellent as well in a really unique way.' Another viewer called it a 'brilliant, inspirational film. A testament to the romanticism and amazingness of baseball. A great depiction of the Oakland Athletics miracle season. Fantastic acting. The best sports movie I have ever seen.' While one viewer felt they couldn't understand 'how anyone doesn't like this', writing: 'I've watched it 100+ times, it's my top 3 movies of all time. So many amazing scenes and subtle acting mastery. I love this movie.' And one fan of the film said: 'It doesn't matter if you don't care much for baseball, you'll love it. Bennett writes and directs this flawlessly and puts together a great cast. Which of course ends up in a perfect film. One of, if not Brad's best performance yet.'
New York Times
31-03-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Expected Goals: How data metrics can enhance your betting experience
For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic's sports betting section and have them added to your feed. Whether you like it or not, expected goals are here to stay. Critics argue that analytics like xG are ruining the game by reducing it to complex metrics. On the other hand, proponents insist that luck and variance play a significant role in unexpected events on the pitch rather than any sort of mystical influence. Advertisement Though the debate between statisticians and purists on whether xG should be used in football has lessened in recent years, one thing is inarguable: if you want to be a better bettor, understanding the data and learning how it may be helpful – and misleading – is essential. Full disclaimer: this isn't just another xG explainer guide. Those exist all over the internet, including right here at The Athletic. Instead, we've created a piece for punters who want to sharpen their skills before placing their next wager. So, let's kick things off with a fitting conversation starter: American baseball (no, really). In 2003, Michael Lewis authored one of the most influential sports books of all time: 'Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game'. For those who refuse to entertain baseball or Brad Pitt movies, Lewis details how under General Manager Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletic's – a financially challenged team trying to compete with deep-pocketed rivals – used analytics to reshape the sport's competitive landscape. One example that contributed to the A's successes was their recognition that on-base percentage (OBP) mattered far more than the batting average. Beane pivoted away from the traditional emphasis on hitting skills (measured by batting average) and instead focused on acquiring players who excelled at getting on base (as measured by OBP). Richard Scudamore has joined Moneyball's Billy Beane in group aiming to buy a Premier League club • RedBall have raised £440m to help the purchase • One dealmaker describes the company as 'fascinating' 📝 @mjshrimperhttps:// — The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) August 22, 2020 As cutthroat as American baseball is, it's absurd how this rudimentary statistic provided such a competitive advantage in the early 2000s. What would be just as outlandish is to think that you can now use xG in the same way to beat the bookmakers when wagering on the Premier League. Unless you were among the handful of xG enthusiasts in the early 2010s lurking in the far corners of the internet and blogging about a new way to analyse football, you've likely been wagering in an era where the bookmakers are utilising that metric much better than you are. Advertisement Simply betting on a club underperforming their underlying xG totals or against one unsustainably exceeding theirs isn't a competitive advantage anymore. Bookmakers' models are better than yours, Billy, so don't believe that in working with xG in 2025, you've discovered something as groundbreaking as OPS was in 2003. So, what is the best way to use xG in the betting sphere? For starters, it's important to understand how it might deceive you. Mark Twain likely had no knowledge of the impact a defender's position has when a shot was taken on a football pitch, but his words serve as a reminder that becoming overly obsessed with xG is not always a wise idea. Like any statistic, xG numbers don't reveal universal truths – they're merely a tool that needs context to be useful. The better you understand the context, the more likely you'll be able to uncover value. One of the places xG can often deceive you is in individual game results, as its predictive power is rooted in the aggregate. Give a respectable xG model 10, 20 or 30 games, and it remains one of the most predictive sports metrics. Take too much from a single match, however, and it can often do more harm than good. In a single game, minor moments that tend to even out in the long term – a back pass gone awry or a bumbling clearance producing a point-blank chance – can skew xG totals. Take, for example, Bournemouth's 1.67 xG total against Manchester City in last weekend's FA Cup quarter-final. If the Cherries can create nearly two goals worth of chances against a regrouped Pep Guardiola side, they should have no trouble against 18th-place Ipswich Town in their upcoming midweek league fixture. Considering Bournemouth's shoddy defending against the Citizens, the over of 3.5 goals for Wednesday's clash at the Vitality Stadium at 7/5 odds look even more appetizing. Yet dive deeper into that 1.67 xG total and you'll find a glaring red flag. Almost the entirety of the Cherries total xG came from two shots from the same sequence in the 21st minute of the game. Outside of those two chances, Bournemouth created a paltry xG of 0.22. Still feeling good about that over wager? Advertisement If letting games rack up to ensure more predictive power from xG favours the bookmakers' models and individual results are too misleading, there's only one place left to use xG to inform your bets. Small sections in games where a significant change has occurred seem to be the sweet spot. Whether it's a new manager stepping in, a season-ending injury or a new formation, introducing variables to the status-quo can nullify even the best models and offer more lucrative betting value. The best place to let xG lead you is the string of results after one of those events reshape a side, like a key injury. Let's use a hypothetical with one of the best non-attackers in the league: Newcastle's Bruno Guimarães. Newcastle square off against Brentford this week as firm favourites to win with odds of ¾. With a fully fit squad, there may not be much value in taking that bet. But if their star midfielder Guimarães had recently missed several games, and the Magpies xG numbers simultaneously took a dip, Thomas Frank's men would weigh in at an enticing 17/5 pick. Guimarães doesn't cost Newcastle much in regards to scoring metrics. The Brazilian international ranks sixth for the club in xG + xA (expected assists) statistics per 90 minutes, barely ahead of midfielder Joe Willock. Bookmakers may tweak the Magpies odds in the absence of their injured talisman, Alexander Isak, but don't expect any seismic shifts in the markets for anyone else. Most of Guimarães' value lies in his passing. The 27-year-old leads the league in passing quality with a 96.3 rating out of 100, per PFF FC's player grading scale. Since the link between ball progression and chance creation is still somewhat of a mystery to many in world football, there's a chance sportsbooks won't be aware of the value either. Advertisement This is the perfect recipe for the 'xG sweet spot'. Bookmakers won't radically adjust Newcastle's odds after just a handful of games with middling results. Yet players like Guimarães do have a notable impact on how a team produces and contains chances that come out over specific periods of time. Go to the xG trend too early, and you could fail to capitalize on a payout. Go too late and the bookmakers will eat your lunch. Find the right balance, however, and it could be a good way to enhance your betting strategy. (Photo of Bruno Guimarães: George Wood / Getty Images)
Japan Times
17-03-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
'Moneyball' disciples aim to upend Japanese baseball for second year
The former bankers who used statistical analysis of undervalued players to lead the Yokohama DeNA BayStars to a stunning upset in last year's Japanese baseball championship aim to show that it wasn't a fluke. As fans whet their appetite with this week's games between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo, Yokohama is honing its indicators that predict how well a pitcher will perform at any given moment. The team pairs that data from its analytics team with the advice of its scouts to use underrated players at the right moment. That combination led to the decision to have Hayato Horioka pitch against the powerful Yomiuri Giants last fall. Horioka, who was cut by the Giants in the 2023 offseason before he came to play on the BayStars' developmental squad, had thrown a mere six innings during the regular season. The bet paid off, with Horioka helping to seal the game and Yokohama advancing to the championship. The BayStars have made similar bets with other players who were previously cut elsewhere. "We believe these players have a lot more to give,' said the team's director of strategy Kenichi Yoshikawa, who used to work in the financial industry. Thanks to advances in camera technology and biometric monitors, players and coaches are now bombarded with data — from the rotational speed of a ball to the precise angle of an elbow or knee to the variability of an athlete's heart rate. From basketball to professional cycling, sports teams around the globe now comb all that information to eke every percentage point's worth of an advantage. The BayStars credits their Series win to how they selected and applied that data, helping them overcome rivals with bigger payrolls and caches of data. The team beat the odds by tapping the real-life experiences of coaches, scouts and trainers and their intuition — given short shrift in Michael Lewis' "Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" and the movie it inspired — to select which data to focus on, according to Yoshikawa and scouting director Tatsuya Hasegawa, another former banker who used to be involved in mergers and acquisitions. Statistics provide valuable insights, but people are not merely a collection of data points, Hasegawa said. "It's important to think ultra-logically and rationally, but that alone sets you up for failure,' he said. "The players are human, with human emotions. No matter what the stock price should be in theory, or what a company should be, that's not going to move people and may be wrong in the end.' "It's the people on the field who most understand where we fall short,' he said. "I listened to them, because they have the full picture on what's most important.' An overhaul of the Japanese professional baseball organizations in 2004 brought in new entrants such as data-loving SoftBank and Rakuten, followed by mobile games provider DeNA's purchase of the BayStars in 2011. That and a global embrace of statistical analysis helped inspire a wave of bankers, marketers, consultants and programmers to seek careers in sports, more than doubling the number of professionals registered at sports recruiting agency Pacific League Marketing in 2023, compared with 2021, according to Akiko Mori, director of public relations. Overall compensation in Japanese sports remains low relative to the U.S., but the influx of workers from other industries may help close the gap, said Mitsuru Tanaka, an associate professor of sports management at Shobi University. "As skilled workers play a bigger role in sports, that in turn expands the market, creating the start of a virtuous cycle,' he said. For now, the BayStars are tapping managers' communications and risk analysis skills honed in the world of finance to guide its approach to data analysis. "How do you find a good answer that combines the quantitative and the qualitative?' Hasegawa said. The team's strength lies in its ability to do so, he said.
