Latest news with #MorningBid
Yahoo
18-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: ECB set to ease as Fed delivers hawkish twist
What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets As the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish turn in the face of another Wall Street swoon, the European Central Bank appears set to ease borrowing rates again - or at least that's what markets expect. In today's column, I get into all the details and explain why the bond market doesn't appear to be too worried about U.S. long-term inflation. The answer may not be all good news. I'll be off tomorrow, as the U.S. stock market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, and then I'm on holiday next week. But 'Morning Bid' will be back on Tuesday, with all the markets coverage you're looking for from my Reuters colleagues. Now onto the market news. Today's Market Minute * European shares were mixed on Thursday as investors parsed corporate earnings to gauge the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies, while awaiting the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day. * Japan is "deeply concerned" over global economic fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday in the government's strongest warning yet as the two nations began trade talks. * U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for a stronger yen against the dollar is almost certain to figure into trade negotiations with Japan, but analysts say any effort to shift the currencies is fraught with risks for both sides. * U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before changing interest rates, but cautioned that President Donald Trump's tariff policies risked pushing inflation and employment further from the central bank's goals. * Plans are afoot for an American-owned company seized by the Kremlin and placed under state control to be used to supply food to the Russian army, a document seen by Reuters showed, potentially threatening Moscow's warming relations with the U.S. ECB set to ease as Fed delivers hawkish twist The final trading day of a holiday-shortened week for U.S. markets is seeing stock futures reclaim some of Wednesday's steep tech-led losses. An earnings beat from Taiwan's TSMC, and its unchanged revenue growth outlook, helped steady the chip ship, which had wobbled again yesterday as new licensing fees linked to the U.S.-China trade spat sank Nvidia stock by almost 7%. But if investors expected the Fed to bail the market out, Chair Jay Powell made it clear that's not happening any time soon. Speaking in Chicago late yesterday, Powell seemed to suggest that the central bank would be on hold for an extended period to tamp down inflation expectations. "Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation," he said. "The inflationary effects could also be more persistent." While Powell's resolve to hold the line did little to offset a 2%-plus drop in the S&P 500, Treasury yields did fall back as market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations remain anchored close to 2%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada also surprised some by resisting another rate cut on Wednesday, perhaps mindful of the upcoming Canadian election. With this North American rate stasis in the background, the ECB is now on deck. Money markets are priced for another quarter point ECB rate cut today to 2.25%, as the euro is close to a three-year high against the ailing dollar amid heightened trade war uncertainty and the euro's real effective exchange rate index is at a 10-year high. The euro ebbed a touch ahead of the decision, German bund yields nudged higher and euro stock benchmarks were slightly in the red. A rare earnings miss from luxury brand Hermes dampened the mood. Back on Wall Street, investors are awaiting another heavy release of housing and jobless data and earnings updates, including Netflix, on Thursday. March retail and industry figures on Wednesday showed only slight misses on the most sensitive readings. On the trade war front, attention turns to Washington's negotiations with Japan's delegation. Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Meloni also meets President Donald Trump on Thursday. Finally, check out my column today, where I look at how the Fed's hard-nosed stance in the face of tariff uncertainty and market volatility appears to be winning the battle to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored. Chart of the day As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, everyone is watching China's holdings of U.S. government debt like a hawk, especially following a serious disturbance in Treasury markets last week. Treasury data on foreign holdings of U.S. debt securities released on Wednesday are only for February - before the tariff spiral truly kicked off. But the numbers showed holdings by Chinese entities actually ticked up during the month, though that's likely only part of the picture. China held $784.3 billion, up from $760.8 billion, and Japanese investors also upped their lot too. There is a presumption that many Chinese holdings are held in proxy in Europe, most likely captured as Belgian holdings where the Euroclear clearing house is based. That said, Belgium-based holdings also rose by almost $20 billion in February too. So if China has offloaded Treasuries of late, we will have to wait for further hard data to find out. Today's events to watch * European Central Bank policy decision, with press conference from ECB President Christine Lagarde * U.S. March housing starts/permits, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Federal Reserve's April business survey * Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks * International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks ahead of IMF/World Bank Spring meeting * Japan Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meets U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington * US corporate earnings: Netflix, American Express, State Street, Blackstone, Charles Schwab, Snap-On, Fifth Third Bancorp, DR Horton, KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, Marsh & Mclennan, UnitedHealth, Truist Financial, Regions Financial etc * U.S. Treasury sells 5-year inflation protected securities Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan; Editing by Anna Szymanski) Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
17-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Morning Bid: ECB set to ease as Fed delivers hawkish twist
What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets As the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish turn in the face of another Wall Street swoon, the European Central Bank appears set to ease borrowing rates again - or at least that's what markets expect. In today's column, I get into all the details and explain why the bond market doesn't appear to be too worried about U.S. long-term inflation. The answer may not be all good news. I'll be off tomorrow, as the U.S. stock market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, and then I'm on holiday next week. But 'Morning Bid' will be back on Tuesday, with all the markets coverage you're looking for from my Reuters colleagues. Now onto the market news. Today's Market Minute * European shares were mixed on Thursday as investors parsed corporate earnings to gauge the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies, while awaiting the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day. * Japan is "deeply concerned" over global economic fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday in the government's strongest warning yet as the two nations began trade talks. * U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for a stronger yen against the dollar is almost certain to figure into trade negotiations with Japan, but analysts say any effort to shift the currencies is fraught with risks for both sides. * U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before changing interest rates, but cautioned that President Donald Trump's tariff policies risked pushing inflation and employment further from the central bank's goals. * Plans are afoot for an American-owned company seized by the Kremlin and placed under state control to be used to supply food to the Russian army, a document seen by Reuters showed, potentially threatening Moscow's warming relations with the U.S. ECB set to ease as Fed delivers hawkish twist The final trading day of a holiday-shortened week for U.S. markets is seeing stock futures reclaim some of Wednesday's steep tech-led losses. An earnings beat from Taiwan's TSMC ( opens new tab, and its unchanged revenue growth outlook, helped steady the chip ship, which had wobbled again yesterday as new licensing fees linked to the U.S.-China trade spat sank Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab stock by almost 7%. But if investors expected the Fed to bail the market out, Chair Jay Powell made it clear that's not happening any time soon. Speaking in Chicago late yesterday, Powell seemed to suggest that the central bank would be on hold for an extended period to tamp down inflation expectations. "Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation," he said. "The inflationary effects could also be more persistent." While Powell's resolve to hold the line did little to offset a 2%-plus drop in the S&P 500, Treasury yields did fall back as market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations remain anchored close to 2%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada also surprised some by resisting another rate cut on Wednesday, perhaps mindful of the upcoming Canadian election. With this North American rate stasis in the background, the ECB is now on deck. Money markets are priced for another quarter point ECB rate cut today to 2.25%, as the euro is close to a three-year high against the ailing dollar amid heightened trade war uncertainty and the euro's real effective exchange rate index is at a 10-year high. The euro ebbed a touch ahead of the decision, German bund yields nudged higher and euro stock benchmarks (.STOXXE), opens new tab were slightly in the red. A rare earnings miss from luxury brand Hermes ( opens new tab dampened the mood. Back on Wall Street, investors are awaiting another heavy release of housing and jobless data and earnings updates, including Netflix (NFLX.O), opens new tab, on Thursday. March retail and industry figures on Wednesday showed only slight misses on the most sensitive readings. On the trade war front, attention turns to Washington's negotiations with Japan's delegation. Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Meloni also meets President Donald Trump on Thursday. Finally, check out my column today, where I look at how the Fed's hard-nosed stance in the face of tariff uncertainty and market volatility appears to be winning the battle to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored. Chart of the day As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, everyone is watching China's holdings of U.S. government debt like a hawk, especially following a serious disturbance in Treasury markets last week. Treasury data on foreign holdings of U.S. debt securities released on Wednesday are only for February - before the tariff spiral truly kicked off. But the numbers showed holdings by Chinese entities actually ticked up during the month, though that's likely only part of the picture. China held $784.3 billion, up from $760.8 billion, and Japanese investors also upped their lot too. There is a presumption that many Chinese holdings are held in proxy in Europe, most likely captured as Belgian holdings where the Euroclear clearing house is based. That said, Belgium-based holdings, opens new tab also rose by almost $20 billion in February too. So if China has offloaded Treasuries of late, we will have to wait for further hard data to find out. Today's events to watch * European Central Bank policy decision, with press conference from ECB President Christine Lagarde * U.S. March housing starts/permits, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Federal Reserve's April business survey * Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks * International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks ahead of IMF/World Bank Spring meeting * Japan Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meets U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington * US corporate earnings: Netflix, American Express, State Street, Blackstone, Charles Schwab, Snap-On, Fifth Third Bancorp, DR Horton, KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, Marsh & Mclennan, UnitedHealth, Truist Financial, Regions Financial etc * U.S. Treasury sells 5-year inflation protected securities Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Reuters
26-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Wall Street bonuses jump 32% as total surges to record, NY comptroller says
NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street banker bonuses rose 31.5% to an average $244,700 last year as dealmaking rebounded, but the boom times may wane as economic uncertainty rises, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said on Wednesday. Deals have slowed this quarter as companies navigate changing policies from President Donald Trump's administration, including tariffs and personnel changes atop regulatory agencies. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. "This financial market strength is good news for New York's economy and our fiscal position, which relies on the tax revenue it generates," DiNapoli said in a statement. "However, increasing uncertainty in the economy amid significant federal policy changes may dampen the outlook." The changes come after a bumper year in which the bonus pool for employees in New York City's securities industry surged to a record $47.5 billion for 2024, the highest in records dating back to 1987, the estimates showed. As the world's top financial center, one in every 11 jobs in the city is either directly or indirectly associated with the securities industry, the comptroller estimated. Wall Street's biggest banks reported rising investment banking fees last year, fueled by more deals and corporate debt issuance. After profits rose 90% in 2024, the latest bonus data reflected the first major increase since banks reaped a windfall in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Employment in the securities industry in 2024 reached its highest level in at least three decades, to 201,500 employees, up from 198,400 a year earlier. The 2024 bonuses will generate $600 million more in state income tax revenue and $275 million more for the city compared with 2023, according to estimates from DiNapoli.
Reuters
25-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US consumer confidence deteriorates further in March
WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence dropped for a fourth straight month in March, with households the most pessimistic about the future in 12 years, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index plunged 7.2 points to 92.9 this month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index sliding to 94.0. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 3.6 points to 134.5. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. The Expectations Index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2 - the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Reuters
25-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Japan to impose tariffs on China's graphite electrodes from Saturday, NHK reports
TOKYO, March 25 (Reuters) - Japan's cabinet has decided to impose provisional four-month anti-dumping duties on China's graphite electrode exports, effective March 29, public broadcaster NHK reported on Tuesday. The measure comes after a Japanese government probe concluded in its interim report that China was exporting graphite electrodes, an industrial material used in electric arc furnace steelmaking, at unfairly low prices and causing damage to Japanese companies. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here.
