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Business Standard
29-05-2025
- Business Standard
NSO to launch first-ever National Household Travel Survey in July: Mospi
The statistics ministry is slated to launch the first ever National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) in July at the behest of the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi) said in a statement on Thursday. The one-year survey, being conducted as part of the National Sample Surveys (NSS) 80th round, will collect information on day-to-day travel within the country and will provide a picture of the travel patterns and choices of people across all demographics. 'The survey is aimed at collecting information on how, where, and for what purpose people travel within India, which is critical for making informed decisions on infrastructure projects and public transportation systems,' the statement released by the Mospi on Thursday said. Addressing the two-day training workshop on the NHTS, NSO Director General Geeta Rathore emphasised the crucial role of the surveys in evidence-based policy making and stressed the need for high-quality, timely data. 'The critical data collected in this survey will aid in policy development and infrastructure planning,' the statement by MoSPI said. In addition, the NSO will also conduct the Domestic Tourism Expenditure Survey (DTES), which aims to collect detailed data on expenditure made by households on domestic overnight trips. Both surveys will cover the entire Indian Union, except for villages in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands which remain difficult to access throughout the year.
Mint
15-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
India's unemployment rate at 5.1% in April; labour force participation at 55.6%
New Delhi: India's unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above stood at 5.1% in April 2025 , according to the latest data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) on Thursday. The unemployment rate was 5.2% among males and 5% among females. The data, based on the current weekly status (CWS) approach, showed India's labour force participation rate (LFPR) was 55.6% in April. Typically, the CWS captures a person's employment status over the seven days preceding the survey, while the usual status reflects their activity over a 365-day reference period. LFPR is the percentage of people who are either working or actively seeking work. During April, rural areas saw a higher LFPR of 58%, compared to 50.7% in urban areas, while male participation remained significantly higher than female participation. LFPR for males stood at 79% in rural areas and 75.3% in urban areas, while female LFPR was 38.2% in rural areas during the month. Mint reported on Wednesday that key indicators from the periodic labour force survey (PLFS) — the LFPR, worker population ratio (WPR), and unemployment rate (UR) — would now be released monthly, rather than quarterly, starting with the April 2025 bulletin that's published in May. India's WPR, which measures the percentage of people who are employed, was 52.8% in April for people aged 15 and above. It was 55.4% in rural areas and 47.4% in urban areas. Notably, the WPR for women was considerably lower than that for men. In rural areas, only 36.8% of women aged 15 and above were working, while in urban areas the figure dropped to just 23.5%. The overall female WPR stood at 32.5% in April. The latest data highlights persistent gender and rural-urban gaps in labour market indicators, even as headline unemployment figures remain stable. On Wednesday, the ministry said the PLFS sampling design had been revamped from January 2025 to provide high-frequency labour market indicators with expanded coverage as part of strengthening the National Sample Survey (NSS) system. A monthly rotational panel scheme has been introduced across rural and urban areas, with each selected household now surveyed four times over four consecutive months, it added. Key changes implemented by the ministry include a revised multistage stratified sampling method, updated definitions of sampling units and strata, and an increase in surveyed households per unit from 8 to 12. The Schedule of Inquiry has also been modified. The ministry also advised users to account for the latest changes when comparing post-January 2025 data with previous PLFS estimates. The revamped PLFS aims to deliver monthly CWS-based labour market indicators at the national level, extend quarterly estimates to rural areas, and provide annual indicators in both usual status and CWS for rural and urban areas, it added.
Mint
14-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
It's time to lay the great Indian GDP controversy to rest
The proposed revamp of India's national accounts series has raised hopes that it will bring an end to the long-running controversy around India's gross domestic product (GDP) numbers. The initial signs are promising. Over the past year, the Union ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) has released pending surveys, and also engaged data users through a series of public seminars. At a recent seminar held at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR) in Mumbai, Mospi's national accounts division provided a broad overview of the changes we could expect to see in the new national accounts series. The most important change in the new series may be the manner in which informal sector growth is estimated. Also Read: Statistical dust-up: The great Indian GDP controversy needn't have arisen The use of formal sector proxies to estimate informal sector growth has been a longstanding complaint about the national accounts series. In the new series, data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) may be used to estimate the informal sector's output. Mospi's attempts to inform data users about the forthcoming changes are indeed commendable. However, it needs to do more. There are three key steps it can take to bolster the credibility of the new national accounts series. The first step would be to release all the underlying data, metadata and documentation in an accessible format. Survey data-sets used in national accounts are already publicly available. Administrative data-sets integrated into the national accounts database should now be opened up to public scrutiny. Such data-sets will help expand our collective understanding of the Indian economy and allay concerns about the GDP-estimation process. Linking factors to construct a back-series should be provided at the time of the new series' launch, not with a lag. It is also important to publish the detailed 'sources and methods' document without delay. This document should be used to educate data users about variations in the availability and quality of data across different sectors of the economy. Also Read: India's GDP growth revisions shouldn't raise eyebrows: They're routine For some sub-sectors, such as banking, national accountants may have access to regular data flows. For other sub-sectors, such as real estate, they may have to depend on patchy data and the use of educated guesses. The last time national accountants made an effort to communicate these differences was in the 'sources and methods' document for the 1970-71 series. It showed that 95% of value added in the banking and insurance sectors was computed on the basis of current data. But for the transport sector, the same share was just 33%. Sharing such details fosters trust in the country's statistical system and builds an informed community of data users. The second step would be to provide error margins for each sectoral estimate. Given that the quality of inputs used in the estimation process vary widely, the accuracy of estimates also varies across sectors. In the interest of transparency, data producers should provide error margins for each sector during each release: be it quarterly, advance or revised estimates. Information on current data availability and sector-wise error margins would allow data users to gauge the reliability of each sectoral estimate. It would also help them predict the likely extent of revisions in the numbers. Also Read: The state of India's economy is not as bright as GDP data may suggest In the early days of national accounting, the pioneers in this field—from Simon Kuznets to V.K.R.V. Rao—would regularly publish error margins along with their national account estimates. Sadly, that practice appears to have gone out of fashion. National accountants would gain enormous credibility if they revived that practice. The third key step to regain credibility would be to set up a research unit within the national accounts division. For a country of India's size and complexity, it is not enough to review and revise national accounting methods and databases once in ten years, or even once in five years. The national accounts research unit should continually probe weak links in the national accounting system and collaborate with experts from diverse fields to come up with better tools of economic measurement. When doubts are raised on the basis of divergences between national accounts and other data-sets, the research team could try to answer such questions based on careful research. When data users find that the Indian statistical system is offering thoughtful responses to their questions rather than knee-jerk reactions, their trust in the system will go up. Also Read: IMF outlook: The good, the bad and the unsaid The research unit could also help states improve the quality of regional estimates. When states find more responsive partners at Mospi, they might be willing to invest more in their own statistical products and processes. Better data from states would in turn ease the path for future national accountants. The task of re-establishing the credibility of India's foremost economic indicator, GDP, has begun. But we must bear in mind that a long and challenging road lies ahead. The coming months will tell us how far Mospi is willing to travel along that path. This is the second of a two-part series on India's GDP revision process. Read the first part here. The author is a Chennai-based journalist.
Mint
30-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Statistical dust-up: The great Indian GDP controversy needn't have arisen
Ten years after India's last gross domestic product (GDP) series was released, the Union ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) has announced the release of a revamped series next year. The new series will replace one of the most contentious national accounts series in the country's history. This is perhaps a good time to understand how and why India's current GDP series became so controversial. Immediately after the GDP series was released in early 2015 (with 2011-12 as its base year), economists and policymakers began questioning the accuracy of the numbers, as it seemed to contradict other economic indicators. The controversy took a sharper turn when one of the experts involved in the revision exercise (the economist R. Nagaraj) said that he was not consulted during the finalization of the methodology and published a critique of it in the Economic and Political Weekly . Mospi officials responded to that critique. But questions about the new series persisted, with data users raising doubts about other changes in the new series. As the technical debate progressed, the issue also acquired a political hue. Since the new series was launched soon after a new government led by Narendra Modi had taken charge in mid-2014, some commentators smelt something amiss. Pressure from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) may have led Mospi to overestimate GDP growth rates , these critics feared. The reality was quite different. In the early days of the new GDP series, the PMO was not entirely unsympathetic to apprehensions about its integrity. In April 2015, the PMO forwarded a note to Mospi that raised questions about the potential 'over-estimation" of GDP and asked the ministry's officials to take 'appropriate" action. This letter was part of records obtained under the Right to Information (RTI) Act by this writer. The note prepared by two former finance ministry officials (R. Gopalan and M.C. Singhi) was originally sent to Nripendra Misra, then principal secretary at the PMO. At that time, the finance ministry's chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian and Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan had both expressed doubts over the new series. These criticisms were not considered politically unpalatable, since they pertained to years when the opposition was in power. But the government's tolerance of such criticism ebbed as the years progressed and its own growth record came under scrutiny. Subramanian's efforts to raise this issue in the 2017-18 Economic Survey were foiled by the PMO, former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg claimed in his book We Also Make Policy . Around this time, the Niti Aayog got involved in reviewing the GDP methodology and in the preparation of a back-cast series. The government think-tank was keen to deflate the growth record of the previous government, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. When the back series was released by the Niti Aayog chief in 2018, it 'corrected" the growth rate of the previous regime, contradicting an 'experimental" back-series published earlier in a National Statistical Commission report. The Aayog's involvement in a technical exercise cast severe doubts on the back-series. If the Aayog had aimed to burnish the ruling regime's economic record, it only ended up denting its credibility. A weak statistical system did not help matters. By the time the GDP numbers were revised in fiscal year 2014-15, India's statistical system was already in a fragile shape, as I have argued earlier (see 'India's Statistical System: Past, Present, Future,' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Working Paper, June 2023). National accountants had to bridge the gaps in existing databases using heroic assumptions. These assumptions did not go unnoticed. In particular, questions were raised about the use of formal sector proxies to estimate informal sector growth; the method of deflation used to compute the real (inflation-adjusted) growth rates; the manner in which an untested database of company filings (MCA-21) had been plugged into the national accounts; and the assumptions used to derive the sectoral and regional shares of national output. The questions came from a diverse crowd of data users, from financial analysts and academic economists to policymakers and state government statisticians. The unconvincing answers of Mospi officials to these questions only muddied the waters further. Much of the controversy could have been avoided if Mospi had initiated an independent audit of the national accounting system. Even if the MCA-21 database had been released in a machine-readable format, it would have helped allay some concerns. But Mospi's leadership, unfortunately, chose to eschew that path, and instead offered lame excuses for why the raw data couldn't be published. Even the 'Sources and Methods' document that typically follows each GDP base-year revision wasn't released. The silver lining in all of this is that the government seems to have learnt its lesson from that episode. Mospi's current leadership is keen to avoid mistakes of the past. It seems invested not just in fixing the gaps in India's current statistical edifice, but also in making the country's statistical system more transparent. This is the first of a two-part series on India's GDP revision process. The author is a Chennai-based journalist.
New Indian Express
28-04-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
Industrial production in March rises at higher pace of 3%
Industrial output in March grew at a higher pace of 3% in March compared to 2.7% in February driven mainly by higher electricity production. However, year-on-year, the industrial production slowed down during the month compared to 5.5% growth in the same month previous year. For the full year, industrial production grew at 4% in FY25 compared to 5.9% in the previous year, according to the Industrial Production Index numbers released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi) on Monday. The IIP numbers for March were released on 28th April, two weeks ahead of time. The ministry in a statement said that from April 2025 onwards, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) will be released on 28th of every month -- within 28 days from the reference month. For a particular month, IIP will be released as quick estimates followed by a final estimate. During March, mining output growth slowed down to 0.4% compared to 1.6% in February and 1.3% a year ago. Manufacturing output registered a minor improvement at 3% during March compared to 2.8% in February and 5.9% in March 2024. Sector-wise, consumer durables output grew at 6.6% in March compared with 3.7% in February, while construction goods output grew at 8.8% in March compared to 6.8% in February. Consumer non-durables production registered a decline of 4.7% during the month. Commenting on the IIP numbers, DK Joshi, chief economist of Crisil Ltd says that the impact of tariff hikes, uncertainty on such changes and slowing global growth is likely to weigh on manufacturing activity in the coming months. He says exports and investment demand are likely to be affected the most but domestic policy is likely to support growth as the income tax cuts come in force this fiscal and Reserve Bank of India continues with rate cuts.
