29-07-2025
After the Bell: SA-US trade tariff negotiations and the 10-year game
I suddenly realised that what we said and did during the Covid pandemic was only going to be judged over a 10-year period. I think the same might apply to how our government responds to what seems to be the demands of the Trump administration.
There was a terrible moment during the Covid pandemic when I felt that every time I went to sleep, I would wake up to check my WhatsApp and find out that someone I knew, had spoken to or interviewed had passed away.
My memories of that time, a time we hardly speak about in public any more, are incredibly intense. Just thinking of it now, in a room surrounded by people I know at the Kgalema Motlanthe Foundation Winter Dialogue, still makes me feel quite alone — chilled almost.
This peaked at the same time as the arguments about vaccines. Time and again I found myself arguing with people about science, about double-blind trial studies, and warning time and again that you should not trust what you see on YouTube.
Early one morning in 2021, after putting aside my WhatsApp with a sigh, I had a minor epiphany.
It was very important, no matter what I did, that what I said still made sense 10 years from that point. I suddenly realised that what we said and did during the pandemic was only going to be judged over a 10-year period.
I think the same might apply to how our government responds to what seems to be the demands of the Trump administration.
Many well-meaning and impressive people, people I have deep respect for, are suggesting we drop Black Economic Empowerment (BEE), urgently appoint an ambassador to the US, or just do 'something'.
Crescendo
This is going to reach some kind of crescendo on Friday, 1 August 2025, when President Donald Trump announces what we think will be new 'final' tariffs.
But actually, I think this is impossible.
Mcebisi Jonas, President Cyril Ramaphosa's envoy to North America, made an important point at the Motlanthe Dialogue this morning when he said that, as South Africa, we have to stand for something.
When I asked him about it, he made a further point: that if we agree on standing for something, it can be used to build unity.
I agree with him.
Now, if you were to give the Trump administration what they want, just because you are so worried about trade and about jobs (no matter how legitimate those concerns are), you might look very silly 10 years from now.
For example, it seems to me that one can both be utterly horrified about the Hamas attacks on Israel and believe that what is happening in Gaza now is simply indefensible.
I cannot understand what Israel is doing. I think Israel in 10 years' time will be judged very harshly for what it has done. In part, it's doing this because of how it feels about what happened on 7 October 2023.
And yet these actions might well sow the seeds of its own destruction. Certainly, its public image has been destroyed.
That means to withdraw the International Court of Justice case now would look incredibly craven 10 years from now.
I think the same applies to BEE. You can't just drop it because another country demands it.
While BEE has huge problems, and there might be better models, I can think of no quicker way to get MK or a party like it into power than by dropping legislated transformation.
As Professor Michael Sachs told the Motlanthe Dialogue, we cannot continue on our current economic path. It will simply create populist governments.
But you can't just allow or enable the rich to get richer. You have to do a lot more than that. And things seem to be moving very quickly; the playing field is changing beneath us.
Trump himself did something that has never happened before in human history when he forced President Cyril Ramaphosa to watch the famous video about the non-existent 'white genocide' in the Oval Office.
Geopolitical adversaries
Now that entire issue seems to have just disappeared. Instead, Republicans in the US are now focused on what they claim is the ANC's decision to support their geopolitical adversaries.
And while Trump has attacked our membership of BRICS, that has not been an issue in trade talks with India and Brazil. Of course, it is also in the nature of trade talks that none of this can really happen in public.
As the Department of International Relations and Cooperation Director-General Zane Dangor explained at the Motlanthe Dialogue, we are 'under a non-disclosure agreement with the US'. In other words, there is clearly a negotiation under way.
This is hugely positive.
But there are many, many problems ahead.
I think in this environment, it would be foolish to appoint a new ambassador to Washington. Anyone who could represent a government led by an ANC president would almost certainly be rejected by the Trump administration.
They may well be looking for a provocation, literally just looking for any move by us to respond to.
I have no idea what will be announced in Washington on Friday.
