Latest news with #MrigankDhaniwala
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
India bond yields flat, traders await central bank guidance for directional triggers
MUMBAI, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields were unmoved in early deals on Wednesday ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, with market participants betting on a dovish tilt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was at 6.3311% as of 9:40 a.m. IST, after closing at 6.3321% on Tuesday. The central bank will announce its decision on 10:00 a.m. IST. A majority of economists expect the authority to keep rates unchanged, according to a Reuters poll. However, a growing number of market participants have been laying bets on a rate cut, as June retail inflation dropped to a more than six-year low and July inflation is expected to hit a record low. "We could see a move of around 5 basis points on the benchmark yield on either side as a hawkish policy will see 6.38%, while a dovish tone could lead to test of 6.28% levels," a trader with a state-run bank said. A dovish commentary and downward revision to economic forecasts by the central bank could drive a fall in government bond yields and overnight index swap rates, even without an actual rate cut, market participants said. RBI's commentary on liquidity management will be closely watched. Traders expect the RBI to release its new liquidity management framework this week. In June, the central bank changed its stance to "neutral" while cutting the benchmark rate by 50 basis points. Nuvama expects the rate-setting committee to keep policy rates unchanged, while retaining the "neutral" stance given the evolving global and domestic macroeconomic backdrop. India's overnight index swap rates were little changed as traders waited for policy decision and commentary from RBI officials. The one-year OIS rate was at 5.44%, and the two-year OIS rate was at 5.40%. The liquid five-year OIS rate was at 5.64%. (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
Mint
03-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
India bond traders eye US data, RBI liquidity operation for cues
MUMBAI, July 3 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields were largely unchanged in early deals on Thursday, as market participants awaited crucial U.S. jobs data after market hours and measures from the local central bank in response to a widening banking liquidity surplus. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was at 6.2830% as of 9:45 a.m. IST, after closing at 6.2892% in the previous session. The five-year 6.75% 2029 bond was at 5.9492% after ending at 5.9522% on Wednesday. "It is just a wait-and-watch game for today, before an eventful Friday," a trader with a primary dealership said. The U.S. nonfarm payroll data for June is due later in the day, and a weaker reading would boost chances of a faster pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Currently, there is a 27% probability that the Fed will reduce rates at the end of this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool, while the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut in September. The odds of a rate cut in July increased after U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell in June. Traders remain focused on the Reserve Bank of India's liquidity management policy, after it withdrew 850 billion rupees from the banking system through an operation that is due to mature on Friday. A follow-up announcement is expected after market hours, with the spotlight on whether the RBI chooses to increase the quantum of withdrawal amid a rising liquidity surplus and a plunge in overnight rates. New Delhi will sell 320 billion rupees ($3.7 billion) of bonds on Friday, with the supply of longer-term notes likely to challenge investor appetite. RATES India's overnight index swap rates were barely changed, with shallow trading volumes. The one-year and two-year OIS rates were not yet traded, while the liquid five-year was marginally lower at 5.65%. ($1 = 85.6840 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
Mint
25-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
India bond yields may rise as RBI announces liquidity withdrawal operation
MUMBAI, June 25 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields are likely to witness an uptick on Wednesday, with shorter-duration papers leading the rise, after the Reserve Bank of India said it will hold a reverse repo auction this week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is expected to move between 6.26% and 6.29%, a trader at a private bank said, after closing at 6.2504% in the previous session. The five-year 6.75% 2029 bond ended at 5.9870%. The RBI infuses liquidity through repo and withdraws it through reverse repo operations. "Though the move was expected, the timing has spoiled market mood, and shorter end should see a selloff, while treasury bill yields could see an adjustment of as much as 10 basis points," the trader said. The RBI will conduct a seven-day variable rate reverse repo auction worth one trillion rupees ($11.6 billion) on June 27. India's banking system liquidity surplus has averaged 2.76 trillion rupees per day in June, comfortably above 1% of bank deposits. Earlier this month, Reuters had reported that the RBI could start conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to withdraw surplus liquidity as and when required. Even as shorter-duration bonds are set to face a larger impact of the move, long-duration notes may remain supported as oil prices stayed lower and as U.S. Treasury yields extended losses. The 10-year U.S. bond yield was at 4.30%, after hitting a seven-week low on Tuesday, as a weaker than anticipated reading of consumer confidence bolstered hopes of a near-term rate cut. Brent crude was below $70 per barrel after Iran and Israel accepted a ceasefire. RATES India's shorter-duration overnight index swap rates are expected to see paying pressure, while the long-end could remain steady. The one-year OIS rate was at 5.49%, while the two-year OIS rate was at 5.47%. The liquid five-year ended at 5.6725%. KEY INDICATORS: ** Brent crude futures rose 1.4% to $68.10 per barrel after easing 6% in previous session ** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.3023%; two-year yield at 3.7971% ** The RBI will auction treasury bills worth 190 billion rupees ($1 = 85.9320 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
Zawya
24-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Virgin Australia to resume Doha flights after Qatar reopens airspace
Virgin Australia's scheduled services to Doha, which are operated by Qatar Airways, are expected to operate on Tuesday with delays following the reopening of Qatar airspace, a spokesperson for the company said in a statement. "With over 25,000 impacted passengers currently in Doha, the immediate priority is clearing the significant backlog of those passengers and flying them to their final destination," the spokesperson said. (Reporting by Himanshi Akhand in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
Mint
23-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Rupee volatility, forwards unruffled by Middle East flare up
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Expectations of rupee volatility and the cost of hedging against the currency's decline had a muted reaction to worries over a deepening of the conflict in the Middle East after the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend. The reaction across global markets was relatively muted as investors kept their attention on potential retaliation by Iran. The Indian rupee declined 0.2% on the day to 86.8025 per U.S. dollar, tracking weakness in Asian peers. The currency's 1-month implied volatility, a gauge of future expectations, nudged slightly higher but was hovering near its average over the last two months, signalling that market participants were not yet pricing in the risk of outsized swings. Markets are wagering that "risk of further escalation seems low", a trader at a large private bank said, pointing out to the quick cooling of crude oil prices after an initial jump. Brent crude oil futures rose to a peak of $81.4 per barrel but pared gains to quote up 1.7% at $78.3 per barrel. Dollar-rupee forward premiums, too, reflected limited concern about a sharp depreciation of the rupee. The 1-month forward premium was nearly flat at 11.25 paisa. Far forward premiums also showed a contained reaction. However, as a large oil-importing nation, India remains vulnerable to risks from sharp spikes in oil prices, MUFG said in a note. "We would likely revise our USD/INR forecast profile higher if geopolitical risks remain elevated moving forward. Nonetheless, given the weakness already seen in INR, the balance of risks for the currency could be more two-sided." Dampened risk appetite also weighed on Asian currencies and equities across the board. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty, fell about 0.8% each. The Korean won led losses among Asia FX with a 0.9% decline. (Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
