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ABC News
2 days ago
- Climate
- ABC News
More snow, drought relief, cold winds ahead, so what happened to predicted warm winter?
Most of central and eastern Australia has shivered through the coldest first fortnight of winter in at least three years, and for pockets of the Murray Basin and north-west Queensland, the coldest in decades. This includes Canberra's chilliest start to winter in 25 years, and Mount Isa's coldest in 51 years. And the bleak conditions are set to continue, including further snow for the Alps, wintry showers for drought-affected southern states, along with frosty nights in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, and Queensland. However, weather modelling is also in strong agreement on another forecast — the cold won't last, and this winter should still be one of the warmest on record. The cold snap this week extended well north with frosty temperatures observed as far north as Julia Creek at a tropical latitude of 20 south. Numerous daily extremes were recorded as overnight lows dipped 10 degrees Celsius below the June average, including Winton's coldest June night in 48 years (0.0C), and Mount Isa's coldest in 44 years (-0.7C). For southern Queensland, NSW and the ACT multiple locations dropped below -5C this week, including Oakey, Cooma, Glen Innes, Goulburn, and Canberra. Milder regions near the coast also shivered — Brisbane's Friday morning low of 5.2C was the city's coldest night in seven years. So what happened to the warm winter promised by weather models and the Bureau Of Meteorology (BoM)? The current situation closely resembles last year. After a forecast for a warm winter, eastern Australia was notably frosty for a few weeks in June and July. The headlines then asserted the BoM's modelling was wrong, however a week or two doesn't make a season, and both June and July still finished warmer than normal when averaging minimums and maximums across the entire country. A record warm August then followed, leading to Australia's mean for the entire season ranking as the second warmest on record when comparing all winters since 1910. And that's exactly what's likely to occur this year, by winter's end it's highly probable the mean temperature will be well above average — and quite possibly one of the highest on record. The BoM's seasonal outlooks are updated every week to utilise the latest observations, basically if the modelling doesn't have a clear picture of the current state of the atmosphere it has little hope in accurately forecasting the future state. And the latest long-range forecast, despite the cold air currently analysed over Australia, is still showing a strong swing to favour well above average minimums and maximums through the remainder of winter. And the wait for warmer weather won't be long. After frosty nights this weekend as far north as central Queensland, the country as a whole can expect higher temperatures from about mid-week By next weekend, a northerly airstream may even lift maximums as high as 20C as far south as northern Victoria. The cold fronts and polar air responsible for the wintry weather is also bringing much needed rain. While falls are well short of what is required to break the drought, this June is on track to become the wettest month in one to two years for much of southern South Australia and western Victoria. Warrnambool hit its June average rain of 79 millimetres just 11 days into the month, while Adelaide's total of 42mm is already the city's wettest month since last winter. And thankfully there's more rain ahead as a pair of cold fronts sweep overhead during the coming days. The first front clipped south-west Western Australia on Friday and brought up to 20mm around Bunbury and has now reached the SA coast. This system will generate from 1 to 10mm in areas south of about Port Augusta during the next 24 hours, including north-west Victoria and south-west NSW. A second stronger front will then follow through Monday and Tuesday and bring an average fall of 5 to 10mm, on this occasion to southern SA and south-west Victoria. For coastal areas of SA, including Adelaide, more than 20mm is possible by mid next week. WA can also look forward to further rain as a series of cold fronts from Tuesday to Saturday drops more than 50mm on the lower west coast, including around Perth. Winter rain is essential for western farmers, and this week could produce more than 20mm across parts of the wheat belt. Last weekend's storm resulted in the deepest mid-June snow cover across the Australian Alps in three years. But 2022 aside, it's been one of the best starts to a ski season in decades — the natural snow depth reported by Mount Hotham is currently the second highest at this point in the season in 25 years. The upcoming fronts also promise to deliver a fresh top-up, although the first system reaching the Alps on Sunday night will only bring a light dusting. The second front has a higher snow potential and could bring 10 to 20 centimetres to Victorian resorts, and if everything lines up suitably, 10cm is also possible in NSW. For non-alpine regions, the post frontal air won't be cold enough for snow with the likely freezing level not dropping below about 1,400 metres.
ABC News
21-05-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
High hopes New South Wales deluge will bring drought relief to inland farmers
There is high confidence the soaking along the NSW north coast will shift south in coming days and bring drought relief to parts of the Murray Basin. However while inland farmers rejoice, flooding will become more widespread across the Hunter and Mid North Coast as another 48 hours of heavy rain flows into already swollen rivers. And while South Australia and western Victoria will miss out on the initial rainband, a vigorous cold front will bring widespread showers to Australia's southern coastline from Sunday to Tuesday — along with a burst of ferocious winds likely to trigger multiple severe weather warnings. Record May rain has already fallen on several locations in New South Wales, between Port Macquarie and Dungog, this week. For Taree, 279 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday was a May record, and less than 25mm off an all-time record. The rain around Taree was so intense overnight, the Manning River rose upstream as much as 12 metres in just over 12 hours, prompting a major flood warning. The Hastings River was also placed under a major flood warning after Port Macquarie was drenched by 239mm in 24 hours — also a May record, and the city's heaviest rain in any month since 1974. Rain continued to tumble down through Tuesday afternoon across the Upper Hunter and Mid North Coast, also triggering major flood warnings for the Paterson, Williams and Gloucester rivers. Modelling indicates heavy rain will persist all through Wednesday from about Yamba to the Central Coast as an onshore airstream off the Tasman Sea feeds moisture into a near stationary trough. For the waterlogged Mid North Coast and Upper Hunter, totals could again easily exceed 100mm in the next 24 hours. The rainband should then edge slowly south on Thursday with heavy falls extending from the Mid North Coast to possibly Sydney and the Illawarra, but again it is the already flooded regions in the north which are likely to face the most intense downpours — possibly a fourth consecutive day with over 100mm. The rainband will then accelerate south on Friday and bring moderate falls to the South Coast of NSW, while sunshine reappears over the sodden catchments further north. As the deluge continues on the coast today, a new weather system will enter the frame and interrupt the stagnant pattern. A low-pressure system above the surface will drift over the south-east inland, and since winds blow clockwise around a low, its presence is what will drag the coastal rain south over the coming days. Critically, the upper low's position is far enough west to also pull moisture over the ranges, setting up the right conditions for rain over parts of the Murray Basin. The first showers should arrive over the Central West and Riverina later today, before expanding across much of western NSW on Thursday east of about Ivanhoe. Showers should then continue on Friday across southern NSW, while also spreading to central and eastern Victoria. How much rain will fall? This event is quite complex, and has numerous moving parts — hence the sudden upgrade from possible showers to a more solid rain event. In general, between today and Saturday, modelling is indicating falls between about 10mm and 40mm across most of the NSW Central West, Southwest Slopes, and Riverina, along with the North East district of Victoria. For areas fortunate enough to receive totals near the higher end of this range, the event will constitute the long-awaited autumn break and should be the heaviest soaking in at least a few months. However, with nine-month rain deficits in the range of 75mm to 300mm across much of the southern Murray Basin, this one event will require several follow-up falls before drought severity is considered to have eased. Further south, totals over Victoria's Northern Country and Central North regions are likely to display even greater variability ranging from zero to 20mm. The moisture and rain along the eastern seaboard this week will not reach SA or far western Victoria, however a powerful cold front due to arrive on Sunday and Monday offers some hope of relief. The best rain from cold fronts, particularly for inland regions, occurs when they link with a stream of tropical moisture and are preceded by a continental scale cloudband. Unfortunately the much-desired pre-frontal rain will be absent ahead of the front, however the system should be strong enough to deliver moderate falls to the coast and adjacent ranges. For areas of the coast exposed to westerly winds from the bottom of Eyre Peninsula to Wilsons Promontory, at least 20mm should fall — and that includes around Kangaroo Island, Mount Gambier, Warrnambool and Wonthaggi. Totals will then drop off over the ranges and at this stage the Riverlands, Murraylands, Wimmera and Mallee are unlikely to see anything more than a millimetre or two. The front will also lead to at least 48 hours of strong winds, and warnings are likely for damaging gusts over a broad swathe of southern Australia with peak speeds easily exceeding 100 kph in multiple regions.
