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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Climate
- Business Standard
Earth's average temperature for 2025-29 may exceed 1.5 deg C limit: WMO
There is a 70 per cent chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new report published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Wednesday. It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record. Besides being the hottest on record, 2024 was the first calendar year with a global mean temperature of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline, the period before human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, began significantly impacting the climate. The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period. Countries are required to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or national climate plans for the 2031-2035 period to the UN climate change office this year. The collective aim of these climate plans is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The WMO report said that the average global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is expected to be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than it was between 1850 and 1900. There is an 86 per cent chance that for at least one year during this period, the temperature will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average. The report also said there is a 70 per cent chance that the average temperature for the entire five-year period will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average. "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. "Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt," she said. The WMO said that in South Asia, recent years have been wetter than usual (except 2023) and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be dry. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years. The IMD has predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall this year. The WMO said the Arctic is expected to warm much faster than the rest of the world over the next five winters (November to March), by about 2.4 degrees Celsius, more than three and a half times the global average. Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. From May to September during 2025-2029, some places like the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia are expected to have more rain than usual, while the Amazon is likely to be drier than normal, the WMO said.
Indian Express
3 days ago
- Climate
- Indian Express
Earth's average temperature for 2025-29 likely to exceed 1.5 deg C limit
There is a 70 per cent chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new report published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Wednesday. It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record. Besides being the hottest on record, 2024 was the first calendar year with a global mean temperature of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline, the period before human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, began significantly impacting the climate. The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period. Countries are required to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or national climate plans for the 2031-2035 period to the UN climate change office this year. The collective aim of these climate plans is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The WMO report said that the average global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is expected to be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than it was between 1850 and 1900. There is an 86 per cent chance that for at least one year during this period, the temperature will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average. The report also said there is a 70 per cent chance that the average temperature for the entire five-year period will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average. 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. 'Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,' she said. The WMO said that in South Asia, recent years have been wetter than usual (except 2023) and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be dry. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years. The IMD has predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall this year. The WMO said the Arctic is expected to warm much faster than the rest of the world over the next five winters (November to March), by about 2.4 degrees Celsius, more than three and a half times the global average. Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. From May to September during 2025-2029, some places like the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia are expected to have more rain than usual, while the Amazon is likely to be drier than normal, the WMO said.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Science
- Time of India
Earth's average temperature for 2025-29 likely to exceed 1.5 deg C limit: WMO
A new WMO report warns of a high probability that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029. There's also a significant chance that one of those years will be the warmest on record, surpassing 2024. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads There is a 70 per cent chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new report published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Wednesday. It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on being the hottest on record, 2024 was the first calendar year with a global mean temperature of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline, the period before human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, began significantly impacting the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year are required to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or national climate plans for the 2031-2035 period to the UN climate change office this year. The collective aim of these climate plans is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees WMO report said that the average global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is expected to be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than it was between 1850 and is an 86 per cent chance that for at least one year during this period, the temperature will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 report also said there is a 70 per cent chance that the average temperature for the entire five-year period will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average."We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett."Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt," she WMO said that in South Asia, recent years have been wetter than usual (except 2023) and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five IMD has predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall this WMO said the Arctic is expected to warm much faster than the rest of the world over the next five winters (November to March), by about 2.4 degrees Celsius, more than three and a half times the global ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of May to September during 2025-2029, some places like the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia are expected to have more rain than usual, while the Amazon is likely to be drier than normal, the WMO said.
Hindustan Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Impact of US exit from Article 6.4 on global carbon markets
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), represents a historic effort to combat the climate crisis through collective global action. Its central objective lies in limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C" above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. The agreement, ratified by 196 parties, relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which outline each country's climate action plans and commitments. To facilitate cost-effective emissions reductions, the Paris Agreement incorporates market-based mechanisms under Article 6. These mechanisms are designed to promote international cooperation and investment in sustainable projects by allowing countries to trade carbon credits. Article 6.2 enables bilateral trading through Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), while Article 6.4 establishes a UN-regulated global carbon market, fostering private and public sector participation in emissions reduction initiatives. These frameworks are crucial for ensuring transparency, preventing double-counting, and driving investments in low-carbon technologies. However, the effectiveness of these mechanisms has been repeatedly tested by political shifts, particularly in the US. The country's decisions to enter, exit, rejoin, and now re-exit the Paris Agreement have created significant uncertainty for global carbon markets. As the world's largest economy and a major emitter, US engagement plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of international climate policy. The latest withdrawal under the newly elected Trump administration raises fresh concerns about the stability of global carbon trading systems and the broader fight against the climate crisis. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which imposed binding targets on developed nations, the Paris Agreement requires voluntary commitments from all countries. Each signatory submits an NDC detailing its emissions reduction strategy, with a commitment to increasing ambition over time. Provisions for five-yearly reviews ensure continued global cooperation. A crucial element of the Paris Agreement is the use of market-based mechanisms to achieve emissions reductions more efficiently. Article 6 provides a framework for international collaboration, allowing nations to trade carbon credits, thereby reducing emissions at a lower cost. This includes two key components: Article 6.2, which enables countries to transfer emission reductions through ITMOs, and Article 6.4, which establishes a global carbon market under UN oversight. This market incentivises emission reduction projects, such as renewable energy and reforestation, by allowing credits to be bought and sold internationally. The US's engagement with the Paris Agreement has been inconsistent, influenced by shifting political priorities. President Obama led the country into the agreement, marking a significant commitment to global climate action. However, President Trump withdrew in 2017, arguing that the agreement placed unfair economic burdens on American industries, particularly fossil fuel sectors. This withdrawal created uncertainty about the US's role in international climate policy and weakened global momentum. Upon taking office, President Biden re-entered the Paris Agreement in 2021, reaffirming US commitment to emissions reduction. He set an ambitious target of reducing emissions by 50-52% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. However, most recently, the newly-elected Trump administration has once again withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement, dealing another blow to global climate cooperation. This inconsistency in US policy has raised concerns about the reliability of its commitments and the stability of global climate action efforts. The withdrawal and re-entry cycles have made it difficult for other nations and businesses to plan long-term investments in emissions reduction projects. The US's exit from Article 6.4 specifically has had notable consequences for carbon markets. As one of the largest economies, the US plays a crucial role in shaping global demand for carbon credits. Uncertainty over its participation has undermined confidence in carbon trading schemes and deterred investment in emissions reduction projects. Trump's withdrawal slowed the development of global carbon trading markets, while Biden's re-entry provided a temporary boost, yet this latest exit further disrupts carbon markets, creating new uncertainties for international efforts to curb emissions and meet global climate targets. The instability of US climate policy has broader repercussions for global carbon markets. Article 6.4, designed to create a robust and transparent international carbon market, relies on major economies' participation to function effectively. The absence of the US disrupts market dynamics, reducing liquidity and weakening investor confidence. The fluctuation in US engagement also affects carbon credit pricing, making it harder for developing nations to attract funding for emission reduction projects. Beyond market implications, the US's wavering stance impacts international climate diplomacy. The Paris Agreement was built on a foundation of collective ambition, and the unpredictability of US participation challenges that cohesion. Other major emitters, such as China and even India, may hesitate to make more ambitious commitments if they perceive the US as an unreliable partner. Developing nations, which depend on financial and technological support from developed economies, face uncertainty in securing resources for their climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Looking forward, a stable and sustained US commitment to the Paris Agreement and Article 6.4 is essential for fostering trust and driving investment in global carbon markets. Policy certainty from major economies encourages businesses and governments to participate in emissions trading, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of carbon markets as a climate solution. If the US continues its pattern of policy reversals, it risks undermining international efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The US's shifting stance on the Paris Agreement, particularly regarding Article 6.4, highlights the challenges of achieving cohesive global climate action. As a major economy, its participation significantly influences carbon markets, investment flows, and international climate cooperation. While Biden's administration attempted to restore US leadership in climate policy, the return of the Trump administration and the subsequent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement once again cast doubt on global efforts. For the Paris Agreement to remain effective, long-term commitment from all major economies, especially the US, is crucial. The success of carbon markets hinges on policy stability, investor confidence, and international collaboration. Without a consistent and engaged approach, the world risks losing critical time in the fight against climate change. As nations continue to strengthen their climate commitments, the US's role will be pivotal in ensuring carbon markets function as a reliable mechanism for reducing global emissions. Unfortunately, the current US dispensation considers it a waste of time and a waste of money — as if there is another Planet B. However, this also presents an opportunity for India and like-minded countries to keep the fight against the climate crisis alive. This article is authored by Anil Trigunayat, former ambassador and currently distinguished fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation and Kaviraj Singh, CEO & director, Earthood.
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Business Standard
22-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India to exceed 2030 climate target with up to 57% cut in emissions: Report
India is on track to exceed its climate target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels, according to a new analysis. The emissions modelling analysis by Delhi-based think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE), an NGO, projected that India's energy sector emission intensity could decrease by 48-57 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels. However, achieving the 2070 net zero target (balancing emissions with removals) will require additional policy interventions, centred around carbon pricing, along with power pricing reforms, fiscal support for clean technologies, enhanced energy efficiency and behaviour change initiatives. The findings, published this week in the international journal Energy and Climate Change', suggest that India's 2035 NDC targets could include reducing emissions intensity of GDP between 55 and 66 per cent relative to 2005 (with most scenarios indicating a 56 per cent reduction) and increasing the non-fossil fuel share in installed power capacity to 60-68 per cent. As per its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) or national climate plans submitted to the UNFCCC in August 2022, India aims to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent from the 2005 level and achieve 50 per cent cumulative electric installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030. Countries are required to submit their next round of national climate plans for the 2031-2035 period this year. With most countries, including India, missing the February 10 deadline, UN climate change chief Simon Stiell has urged them to submit their plans by September at the latest. India has not yet finalised its new NDCs. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW, said, Since the Paris Agreement, India has demonstrated climate leadership on several fronts. It has also proven that growth and emissions reduction can happen together. This paper reaffirms that with decisive reforms -- across electricity pricing, industrial planning, nuclear electricity, lifestyle change and urban mobility -- India can significantly bend its emissions curve towards net zero." He said India's 2035 NDC must reflect not only enhanced ambition but also economic realism, supported by analytical assessments. A well-calibrated strategy should include an economy-wide emissions intensity target, sector-specific carbon budgets and a push for low-carbon technologies and clean manufacturing, Chaturvedi said. Satish Kumar, President and Executive Director, AEEE, said, By integrating key energy efficiency parameters as endogenous variables in the underlying climate model, our paper breaks new ground in capturing the real-world potential of demand-side interventions. This approach makes the model more robust and reflective of India's development realities. The CEEW-AEEE analysis found that a high-growth scenario aligned with the Viksit Bharat' vision would lead to 63 per cent higher absolute emissions by 2070, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. However, the emissions intensity of GDP would still fall by 3 per cent relative to BAU, due to greater adoption of efficient technologies and deeper integration of renewables in India's energy mix, it said. This reduction could be even higher if the Indian industries prioritise electricity-driven, low-emission manufacturing sectors, such as semiconductors. Behavioural and lifestyle changes -- such as reduced private vehicle use, adoption of energy-efficient appliances and optimised residential energy use (modelled under India's Mission LiFE framework) -- could deliver up to 10 per cent emissions reductions by 2050 relative to BAU, as well as reduce the pressure on land resources. Policies that mandate energy-efficient products and prioritise their procurement could deliver substantial gains at relatively low costs. The CEEW-AEEE analysis also found that lower tariffs for industrial and commercial users could accelerate electrification and boost clean energy uptake. Higher residential tariffs, on the other hand, could make rooftop solar more attractive, provided low-income households continue receiving targeted support.
