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Daily Maverick
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
From consultation to action: The critical role of the National Dalogue in SA's future
Dialogue cannot be effective without first properly assessing what's wrong and how it can be fixed. The National Dialogue announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa two weeks ago aims to foster unity in South Africa and find collective solutions to the country's multifaceted challenges. The initiative, which has been under discussion for years, will involve a wide range of societal sectors. It starts with a National Convention on 15 August 2025, which will set the agenda for the broader dialogue. The aim is to forge a social compact to drive a new 30-year National Development Plan (NDP). A National Dialogue Preparatory Task Team has begun mobilising civil society, establishing various working committees. A second National Convention, planned for early 2026, will consolidate proposals from the various engagements into a national vision and implementation programme. Consultation is essential but insufficient to develop a common understanding of our poor growth trajectory. We may think we know why South Africa is not growing inclusively and rapidly, but an authoritative assessment is needed to determine what is wrong. Collective discussions of these challenges can then shape a plan of action. South Africans want action, and are well aware of the pressing issues Ramaphosa listed, such as poor social services, high unemployment, widespread crime, corruption, food inflation and economic stagnation. What they do not see is a plan to carry the country forward. It is naive to think that such a plan will emerge from broad consultation without preparatory work by issue-level experts, which is then made available for public critique. This needn't be a lengthy process. This logical route was used to develop the current National Development Plan (NDP 2030). Each phase in its drafting allowed room for consultation and engagement, providing an excellent example to emulate. Key challenges identified The process started with establishing the National Planning Commission (NPC) in May 2010 by then president Jacob Zuma. Led by Trevor Manuel, the NPC spent the first year developing its impressive Diagnostic Overview, which identified key challenges. The current National Dialogue process should start with a similar analysis. The subsequent development of NDP 2030 involved wide-ranging consultations, with the overarching goals of eliminating poverty and reducing inequality by 2030. A first draft for comment was released in 2011, and the Cabinet adopted the final plan in August 2012. But because the purpose of the exercise was primarily to ensure a political offramp for Manual — a political challenger and irritant to Zuma — subsequent attention was limited, and the plan was essentially shelved. The National Dialogue should develop a follow-on NDP to 2043 or 2053, aligning with the third and fourth 10-year implementation plans of the African Union's (AU) Agenda 2063. South Africa has rhetorically supported Agenda 2063 and hosts the AU Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa's Development secretariat, which oversees Agenda 2063. It would send an important message to other African countries if South Africa aligns its follow-on NDP with Agenda 2063's successive 10-year action plans, as other African states are now doing. The Institute for Security Studies work on long-term futures across Africa uses 2043. Our experience is that a long horizon (e.g. to 2050 and beyond) is easily ignored by governments fixated on electoral cycles. Politics will inevitably encroach on the process. By March 2026, when the dialogue is set to conclude with the adoption of a programme of action, Ramaphosa will have little more than a year left of his presidency. The African National Congress (ANC) selects a new leader in December 2027, with Deputy President Paul Mashatile the most likely contender to lead the party into the 2029 general elections. ANC's downward trajectory Irrespective of its choice of president, these polls will probably see the ANC continue on its downward trajectory, emerging at best as the largest party in a coalition government. Recent polling even suggests the ANC will be ousted to the opposition benches. It is important to ensure that any plan emanating from the National Dialogue survives beyond 2029. Practically, that means the Eminent Persons Group (the more than 30 people appointed to guide the dialogue) and the Steering Committee must be isolated from politics and serve as the incoming planning commission. Alternatively, the group should be endorsed by the parties comprising the current Government of National Unity, given their commitment to shared governance. The location, mandate and composition of the dialogue's Task Team and Steering Committee are therefore vital. At first glance, locating the day-to-day operations of the secretariat in the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac) appears attractive. Nedlac provides a platform for dialogue between the government, business, labour and community organisations to address economic, labour and development issues. But the council has not engendered much confidence, and a forum for dialogue is not an appropriate place for national planning, monitoring and vision. The logical location remains within the Presidency, given the importance of proximity to power when translating good intent into impact. Developing the follow-on plan The current 27 National Planning Commission commissioners' terms end in 2026. It makes sense — since they have already been appointed and announced — to formally align the dialogue's Eminent Persons Group with the commission, allowing them to assume responsibility for developing the follow-on plan, serving as commissioners. Finally, South Africa is cash-strapped. When he tabled the 2025/26 national Budget, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana included the dialogue as one of six unfunded spending priorities. The preparatory committee has apparently mentioned R700-million to finance the process — enraging many South Africans. It is a stretch to argue that such a costly dialogue is more important than the other unfunded items Godongwana listed — all of which are pressing and would make a practical difference to growth. These include the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa's rolling stock fleet renewal, replacing the gap left by the United States' withdrawal of Pepfar (Aids relief) funds, and funding for the Chief Justice and Statistics SA. It appears that the Task Team, comprising more than 50 organisations representing foundations, non-governmental organisations, community-based groups and the Presidency, has yet to present a budget to the Treasury. The National Dialogue is crucial to confronting South Africa's deep-seated problems and fostering a unified approach to building a better future. But it must be grounded with appropriate analysis and consultation, driven from the Presidency, reviewed regularly and must assume a time horizon aligned with Agenda 2063. DM
Daily Maverick
29-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Maverick
New report reveals cost-of-living crisis deepening for South Africa's poor
From 2011 to 2023 the cost of living in South Africa has nearly doubled. This was revealed in the Trend in the Cost of Living in South Africa report, released on Friday, 16 May 2025. Electricity increases and food inflation are shown to be hitting poor and working-class households the hardest. A new report by the National Planning Commission (NPC) and Unicef (United Nations Children's Fund) reveals a troubling trend: while cumulative headline inflation rose by 94.6% between 2011 and 2023, the cost of essentials surged at a much faster rate. Electricity prices tripled, education costs more than doubled, and food prices climbed by 136.1%, far outpacing the growth in wages for poorer households. 'This report is not just about graphs and figures, it's not only about the cost of living. It is about the cost of being human — the cost of being a mother, a child, or a worker,' said Professor Julian May, a commissioner from the University of the Western Cape. May presented the findings to a room filled with officials from various government departments and civil society organisations on Friday, 16 May, highlighting both the improvements and challenges in addressing South Africa's cost-of-living crisis. The report aims to inform policies created through the National Development Plan (NDP). The NDP 2030, drafted in 2012 by the National Planning Commission, sets out to eliminate poverty and reduce unemployment by 2030. With the deadline for this long-term strategic plan approaching, the commission partnered with Unicef to update and deepen the analysis. 'This report is important for planning purposes and for informing policy with evidence,' said Professor Phakama Ntshongwana, a commissioner at the National Planning Commission. 'The different domains researched in this report are critical because they affect millions and millions of people in the country.' Cost of living essentials outpace everything else The report reveals that while general inflation nearly doubled prices over 12 years, essential goods and services increased far more sharply. Meanwhile, real wages — what people take home after adjusting for inflation — fell by 3.4%. In other words, the average South African worker could buy less in 2023 than in 2011. Electricity saw the most dramatic increase, rising by 230% over the 12-year period. With persistent load shedding and above-inflation tariff hikes, many poor households were forced to spend a disproportionate share of their income just to keep the lights on and cook meals. Food inflation hit the poorest the hardest. Staples like maize meal and cooking oil experienced steep price increases, with overall food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation at 136.1%. These are not luxury goods but the backbone of sustenance for South Africa's poor. As a consequence, households were forced to cut back on food spending. May said some even went as far as skipping meals or relying on cheap, nutrient-poor alternatives to survive. Transport costs also rose sharply, especially for those reliant on minibus taxis or buses. With public transport inflation estimated at about 130%, and private transport closer to 165%, commuting to work or school became unaffordable for many. While education is often hailed as a pathway out of poverty, it has become less accessible over the past 12 years. Education costs increased by 138% overall, and primary and secondary school fees rose even faster. The report shows that it is no longer just about access, but affordability. The soaring cost of essentials was only exacerbated by the fact that real wages declined by 3.4% between 2011 and 2023. For many low-income workers, each year brought less purchasing power. Despite the introduction of a national minimum wage, wage growth lagged far behind inflation in essentials, squeezing household budgets even tighter. Challenges to Achieving NDP Goals Ntshongwana noted that while there have been pockets of improvement, the report highlights significant challenges to the National Planning Commission's goal of meeting key objectives in the National Development Plan. 'We are not much closer to the goals of the NDP. There are pockets of improvement, but much remains to be done regarding policy delivery and improving quality of life for children, women, and society as a whole,' he said. She also pointed to South Africa's spatial patterns — a legacy of apartheid spatial planning where non-white people were removed from urban areas and placed in townships on the periphery — as a strong impediment to improving the quality of life for the poorest communities. 'With low-income people living far away from economic hubs where they can access jobs, there comes the question of their job-seeking patterns, with transport costs playing a huge role in their ability to access employment,' Ntshongwana said. The value of social grants The report highlights that social grants have become a critical lifeline for a large portion of South Africa's population amid rising living costs and economic challenges. In 2023, Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity released a statement revealing that about 93% of grant money is spent on food, underscoring the grant's role in mitigating the impact of soaring prices on poor households. The Trends in the Cost of Living report found that between 2011 and 2023, social assistance in South Africa expanded, with the number of grants paid out by the government in the same period. However, the report found that the real value of grants declined over the assessment period when compared to the headline CPI, particularly for the old age grant, war veterans grant, disability grant, and care dependency grant Despite their importance, the report argues that social grants alone are insufficient to fully offset the rising costs of essentials, leaving many people vulnerable to ongoing economic pressures. However, Mervyn Abrahams, a programme coordinator at Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity, said his organisation was working on a research project advocating for social grants to be set above the upper-bound poverty line to adequately address the cost of living crisis. 'If you set it below, it will only be used to sustain life — to pay for food, transport, and the like. But if it's set above, it allows some level of decision-making as to what the grant beneficiary will do with the extra R200 or R300. They can then start to question how they can invest the extra money to create some kind of income stream for themselves,' Abrahams said. He added that the two-year research project found that 67 of the 100 grant beneficiaries involved used the money to develop alternative income streams, such as growing extra food and selling it, thus alleviating some of the pressures of the cost-of-living crisis. DM
