Latest news with #NSSL
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
How Warn-on-Forecast system's data saved lives in Missouri
ST. LOUIS – Warning the public about life-threatening storms is the most important thing we do as meteorologists. The night of March 14 is one that few in this area will soon forget, as multiple tornadoes touched down that night, leaving swaths of massive destruction in both Missouri and Illinois. As terrible as that was, it could have been even worse, had it not been for experimental data generated by researchers at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma. That data is part of a new system under development called Warn-on-Forecast. 'This technology is an ensemble of models. That ensemble is put together in a way that for each individual thunderstorm that's being forecast out to three to six hours in advance, there are probabilities that are computed,' Dr. Pam Heinselman, the NSSL's deputy director of science, said. For each individual thunderstorm, probabilities are generated for damaging winds, large hail, and even the potential for significant tornadoes, sometimes several hours in advance. 'Something that is unique about this ensemble is we are bringing in new data every 15 minutes,' Heinselman said. 'So, we are cycling into the model the most recent weather radar data, satellite data, other forms of data; re-running the model every half-hour, producing fresh, new forecasts. 'Warn-on-Forecast is a tool in the toolbox that helps to provide heads up to the forecaster.' The Warn-on-Forecast data is designed to bridge the gap between when the initial watch comes out and the first warnings are issued; a period that can be hours long, with little in the way of information for those who need it most. '…Somebody who is in charge of an arena, or a concert venue, or a hospital, schools, mobile home parks where somebody has to go somewhere else for safety,' Heinselman said. 'This provides that information ahead of the storm so people can take actions they need.' And that's exactly what happened the night of March 14! The Warn-on-Forecast data indicated high probabilities for significant tornadoes, with storms tracking into Carter County. Forecasters shared that information with emergency managers, who passed along the warning to the community. 'So, this community had a heads-up two hours ahead of time (that) there was a high probability for a tornado, and that enabled 120 individuals to take shelter in the community shelter,' Heinselman said. 'Not long after, an EF-3 tornado impacted that area.' Dr. Heinselman said there is still testing to be done on the system as it works through the demonstration phase of development. But with success stories like March 14, she has high hopes for it to go operational in the future. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
NZ Herald
15-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Rocket Lab's Sir Peter Beck not giving up on Mars despite Trump ‘killing' Nasa mission
'If anything goes to Mars … Chances are it will have a Rocket Lab logo on it.' Rocket Lab announced a slight slip in quarterly earnings this month, as it continued to make progress on its medium-lift Neutron rocket, set to launch for the first time later this year. The company that designed, built and launched rockets and spacecraft from launch sites in New Zealand and the United States was experiencing increased demand from the US military, including Neutron becoming eligible for the US$5.6 billion ($9.5b) National Space Security Launch (NSSL) programme. 'Our national security projects and our national security division continue to grow and grow and grow,' Beck said. 'Also, everybody understands we live in a much more unstable world right now, and national security conversations are dinner-time conversations.' Watch Sir Peter Beck discuss its defence applications, including hypersonic rockets, and see a part of the Neutron rocket up close in today's episode of Markets with Madison above. Get investment insights from executives and experts on Markets with Madison every Friday here on the NZ Herald, on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Sponsored by CMC Markets. Disclaimer: The information provided in this programme is of a general nature, and is not intended to be personalised financial advice. We encourage you to seek appropriate advice from a qualified professional to suit your individual circumstances. Madison Malone (nee Reidy) is host and executive producer of the NZ Herald 's investment show Markets with Madison. She joined the Herald in 2022 after working in investment, and has covered business and economics for television and radio broadcasters.
Business Wire
08-05-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Rocket Lab Announces First Quarter 2025 Financial Results, Posting Quarterly Revenue of $123m Representing 32% Year-on-Year Growth
LONG BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (Nasdaq: RKLB) ('Rocket Lab,' 'the Company,' 'we,' 'us,' or 'our'), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today shared the financial results for fiscal first quarter ended March 31, 2025. Rocket Lab founder and CEO Sir Peter Beck said: 'Rocket Lab has delivered a strong first quarter performance, with wins across our launch and space systems divisions reflected in our near-record $123 million revenue – at the top end of our guidance and a 32% increase year-on-year compared to Q1 2024. We also remain confident in our ability to execute and deliver on what's set to be another strong quarter, with our Q2 2025 revenue guidance in the $130m-$140 million range – which would reflect the underlying strength of our increasingly diverse business within the current geopolitical climate, showing the resilience of our vertically integrated end-to-end space company business model. 'We've also significantly reshaped Rocket Lab these past few years as we've completed multiple acquisitions, announced our intention to expand into Europe, and entered new markets. To better align our legal entities with our business objectives and our U.S. Government security requirements for our expanding national security focus, we plan to implement a new holding company structure. This new structure will enable more efficient management and growth of Rocket Lab, while better managing our risks and liabilities. It's a positive change that supports our further growth across the commercial, civil, and national defense space industries.' Business Highlights for the First Quarter 2025, plus updates since March 31, 2025. Launch: Successfully on-ramped the Neutron rocket to the Department of Defense's $5.6 billion National Security Space Launch ('NSSL') Phase 3 Lane 1 program. Rocket Lab is now one of only five launch providers and the only publicly-traded company selected by the U.S. Space Force as eligible to launch the nation's highest priority national security missions. As part of the on-ramp to the NSSL program, Rocket Lab received a $5 million task order to perform a capabilities assessment demonstrating the Company's approach to mission assurance for NSSL launches. Signed a Neutron launch contract with the U.S. Air Force to launch a rocket-based point-to-point transportation system experiment. The mission is scheduled for a return-to-Earth launch on Neutron no earlier than 2026. Successfully launched five Electron missions for three separate commercial satellite constellation operators in Q1 2025. As of today, Electron remains the world's most frequently launched small orbital rocket, the United States' second most-frequently launched rocket annually, and one of only two commercial U.S. rockets to have deployed payloads to orbit multiple times in 2025. Awarded a new HASTE launch contract by Kratos for the Department of Defense's MACH-TB 2.0 program. The mission will launch from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2 in Virginia no earlier than Q1 2026 and is the first full-scale flight test awarded by Kratos under the $1.45 billion MACH-TB 2.0 program. Selected for two multi-billion dollar United States and United Kingdom government programs that make Rocket Lab's HASTE launch vehicle eligible to compete for hypersonic flight tests. The two programs are the U.S. Air Force's Enterprise-Wide Agile Acquisition Contract ('EWAAC'), a $46 billion program to develop new military capabilities; and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence's ('UK MOD') Hypersonic Technologies & Capability Development Framework ('HTCDF'), a ~$1.3 billion (£1 billion) framework to rapidly develop advanced hypersonic capabilities for the allied nation. Selection to the UK MOD's program marks the first time Rocket Lab's HASTE launch services are now available to the United Kingdom. Space Systems: Announced intention to acquire Mynaric, a leading provider of laser optical communications terminals for air, space, and mobile applications. This transaction, if completed, would represent Rocket Lab expansion into Europe, with the intention of scaling the production of Mynaric's optical terminals to serve a growing list of government and commercial single satellites and large constellations, as well as integrate the products within Rocket Lab's own future satellite constellation. Expanded Rocket Lab's space systems line-up to include standardized and highly-scalable products across space-grade solar power and satellite radios. These include the STARRAY family of customizable, next-generation solar arrays to meet the power requirements of small satellite missions; the expanded suite of Frontier radios for reliable command and control of satellite missions in Earth orbit and deep space; and next-generation space software for satellite constellation management. Second Quarter 2025 Guidance For the second quarter of 2025, Rocket Lab expects: Revenue between $130 million and $140 million. GAAP Gross Margins between 30% and 32%. Non-GAAP Gross Margins between 34% and 36%. GAAP Operating Expenses between $96 million and $98 million. Non-GAAP Operating Expenses between $82 million and $84 million. Expected Interest Expense (Income), net $3.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss of $28 million and $30 million. Basic Weighted Average Common Shares Outstanding of 514 million, including approximately 51 million of Series A Convertible Participating Preferred Stock. See 'Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures' below for an explanation of our use of Non-GAAP financial measures, and the reconciliation of historical Non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures in the tables attached to this press release. We have not provided a reconciliation for the forward-looking Non-GAAP Gross Margin, Non-GAAP Operating Expenses or Adjusted EBITDA expectations for Q2 2025 described above because, without unreasonable efforts, we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty the amount and timing of adjustments that are used to calculate these non-GAAP financial measures, particularly related to stock-based compensation and its related tax effects. Stock-based compensation is currently expected to range from $13 million to $14 million in Q2 2025. Plan to reorganize corporate legal structure Rocket Lab today announced it intends to establish a holding company structure. The new parent company, named Rocket Lab Corporation, will replace Rocket Lab USA, Inc. as the public company listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange and will retain the 'RKLB' ticker symbol. Existing shares of Rocket Lab will automatically convert on a one-for-one basis into shares of common stock of Rocket Lab Corporation. Trading is expected to continue uninterrupted on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The transaction will be accomplished pursuant to Section 251(g) of the Delaware General Corporation Law and no action will be required by Rocket Lab stockholders. Rocket Lab's Board of Directors and its executive officers, including founder and CEO Sir Peter Beck, will continue in their same roles at Rocket Lab Corporation. Rocket Lab USA, Inc. will become a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Rocket Lab Corporation and continue to hold its existing subsidiaries and assets across the United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. The new company structure is expected to be in effect by June 1, 2025. As a result of the timing of the planned holding company reorganization, the company will hold its annual meeting of stockholders later this year, and intends to provide an update to investors on the anticipated timing of the 2025 annual meeting of stockholders following completion of the holding company reorganization transaction. Conference Call Information Rocket Lab will host a conference call for investors at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET) today to discuss these business highlights and financial results for our first quarter, to provide our outlook for the second quarter, and other updates. The live webcast and a replay of the webcast will be available on Rocket Lab's Investor Relations website: About Rocket Lab Founded in 2006, Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company with an established track record of mission success. We deliver reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft components, and on-orbit management solutions that make it faster, easier, and more affordable to access space. Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab designs and manufactures the Electron small orbital launch vehicle, a family of flight-proven spacecraft, and the Company is developing the large Neutron launch vehicle for constellation deployment. Since its first orbital launch in January 2018, Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle has become the second most frequently launched U.S. rocket annually and has delivered more than 200 satellites to orbit for private and public sector organizations, enabling operations in national security, scientific research, space debris mitigation, Earth observation, climate monitoring, and communications. Rocket Lab's Photon spacecraft platform has been selected to support NASA missions to the Moon and Mars, as well as the first private commercial mission to Venus. Rocket Lab has three launch pads at two launch sites, including two launch pads at a private orbital launch site located in New Zealand and a third launch pad in Virginia. To learn more, visit Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the 'Securities Act') and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the 'Exchange Act'). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our expectations of financial results for the first quarter of 2025, launch and space systems operations, launch schedule and window, safe and repeatable access to space, Neutron development and anticipated timeline to launch, operational expansion and business strategy are forward-looking statements. The words 'believe,' 'may,' 'will,' 'estimate,' 'potential,' 'continue,' 'anticipate,' 'intend,' 'expect,' 'strategy,' 'future,' 'could,' 'would,' 'project,' 'plan,' 'target,' and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the factors, risks and uncertainties included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the 'SEC'), accessible on the SEC's website at and the Investor Relations section of our website at which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of the date of this press release. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change. + Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures We supplement the reporting of our financial information determined under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States of America ('GAAP') with certain non-GAAP financial information. The non-GAAP financial information presented excludes certain significant items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, results from our ongoing business operations. We believe that these non-GAAP measures provide investors with additional insight into the company's ongoing business performance. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP measures, and other companies may define such measures differently. We encourage investors to review our financial statements and publicly filed reports in their entirety and not to rely on any single financial measure. Reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial information to the corresponding GAAP measures for the historical periods disclosed are included at the end of the tables in this press release. We have not provided a reconciliation for forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures because, without unreasonable efforts, we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty the amount and timing of adjustments that are used to calculate these non-GAAP financial measures, particularly related to stock-based compensation and its related tax effects. The following definitions are provided: + Adjusted EBITDA EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA further excludes items of income or loss that we characterize as unrepresentative of our ongoing operations. Such items are excluded from net income or loss to determine Adjusted EBITDA. Management believes this measure provides investors meaningful insight into results from ongoing operations. + Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures Non-GAAP gross profit, gross margin, research and development, net, selling, general and administrative, operating expenses, operating loss and total other income (expense), net, further excludes items of income or loss that we characterize as unrepresentative of our ongoing operations. Such items are excluded from the applicable GAAP financial measure. Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors meaningful insight into results from ongoing operations. Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 2024 Revenues: Product revenues $ 80,804 $ 54,146 Service revenues 41,765 38,621 Total revenues 122,569 92,767 Cost of revenues: Cost of product revenues 53,869 40,827 Cost of service revenues 33,453 27,766 Total cost of revenues 87,322 68,593 Gross profit 35,247 24,174 Operating expenses: Research and development, net 55,109 38,504 Selling, general and administrative 39,326 28,749 Total operating expenses 94,435 67,253 Operating loss (59,188 ) (43,079 ) Other income (expense): Interest expense, net (2,586 ) (898 ) (Loss) gain on foreign exchange (134 ) 311 Other income (expense), net 479 (589 ) Total other expense, net (2,241 ) (1,176 ) Loss before income taxes (61,429 ) (44,255 ) Benefit (provision) for income taxes 813 (5 ) Net loss $ (60,616 ) $ (44,260 ) Net loss per share attributable to Rocket Lab USA, Inc.: Basic and diluted $ (0.12 ) $ (0.09 ) Weighted-average common shares outstanding: Basic and diluted 505,614,185 489,994,709 Expand ROCKET LAB USA, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS AS OF MARCH 31, 2025 AND DECEMBER 31, 2024 (unaudited; in thousands, except share and per share data) (unaudited) December 31, 2024 Assets Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 303,149 $ 271,042 Marketable securities, current 125,247 147,948 Accounts receivable, net 39,413 36,440 Contract assets 60,943 63,108 Inventories 125,588 119,074 Prepaids and other current assets 70,510 55,009 Total current assets 724,850 692,621 Non-current assets: Property, plant and equipment, net 213,990 194,838 Intangible assets, net 56,181 58,637 Goodwill 71,020 71,020 Right-of-use assets - operating leases 52,137 53,664 Right-of-use assets - finance leases 14,272 14,396 Marketable securities, non-current 83,947 60,686 Restricted cash 5,102 4,260 Deferred income tax assets, net 3,765 3,010 Other non-current assets 29,709 31,210 Total assets $ 1,254,973 $ 1,184,342 Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity Current liabilities: Trade payables $ 70,203 $ 53,059 Accrued expenses 12,141 19,460 Employee benefits payable 21,959 20,847 Contract liabilities 206,867 216,160 Current installments of long-term borrowings 20,490 12,045 Other current liabilities 16,456 17,954 Total current liabilities 348,116 339,525 Non-current liabilities: Convertible senior notes, net 345,926 345,392 Long-term borrowings, net, excluding current installments 57,728 44,049 Non-current operating lease liabilities 50,643 51,965 Non-current finance lease liabilities 14,897 14,970 Deferred tax liabilities 1,027 891 Other non-current liabilities 5,342 5,097 Total liabilities 823,679 801,889 COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES Stockholders' equity: Preferred stock, $0.0001 par value; authorized shares: 100,000,000; issued and outstanding shares: 50,951,250 and 0 at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively 5 — Common stock, $0.0001 par value; authorized shares: 2,500,000,000; issued shares: 511,492,231 and 504,453,785 at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively; outstanding shares: 460,540,981 and 504,453,785 at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively 46 50 Treasury stock, at cost; shares: 50,951,250 and 0 at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively — — Additional paid-in capital 1,307,930 1,198,909 Accumulated deficit (874,317 ) (813,701 ) Accumulated other comprehensive loss (2,370 ) (2,805 ) Total stockholders' equity 431,294 382,453 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 1,254,973 $ 1,184,342 Expand ROCKET LAB USA, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31, 2025 AND 2024 (unaudited; in thousands) For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 2024 CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES: Net loss $ (60,616 ) $ (44,260 ) Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash used in operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 8,707 8,313 Stock-based compensation expense 19,234 13,093 Loss on disposal of assets 13 3 Loss on extinguishment of long-term debt — 1,330 Amortization of debt issuance costs and discount 831 639 Noncash lease expense 1,519 1,491 Change in the fair value of contingent consideration — (271 ) Accretion of marketable securities purchased at a discount (561 ) (842 ) Deferred income taxes (585 ) 78 Changes in operating assets and liabilities: Accounts receivable, net (2,974 ) 3,939 Contract assets 2,165 (1,944 ) Inventories (6,308 ) 7,509 Prepaids and other current assets (9,617 ) (5,303 ) Other non-current assets 1,571 (4,266 ) Trade payables 9,779 (1,673 ) Accrued expenses (2,712 ) 3,200 Employee benefits payables (253 ) (622 ) Contract liabilities (9,294 ) 11,205 Other current liabilities (3,699 ) 6,729 Non-current lease liabilities (1,670 ) (1,425 ) Other non-current liabilities 245 489 Net cash used in operating activities (54,225 ) (2,588 ) CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES: Purchases of property, equipment and software (28,677 ) (19,177 ) Proceeds on disposal of assets, net 16 — Purchases of marketable securities (84,639 ) (79,359 ) Maturities of marketable securities 84,699 46,280 Net cash used in investing activities (28,601 ) (52,256 ) CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES: Proceeds from ATM Equity Offering 92,806 — Issuance costs related to ATM Equity Offering (2,088 ) — Proceeds from the exercise of stock options 48 943 Proceeds from Employee Stock Purchase Plan 2,237 507 Proceeds from sale of employees restricted stock units to cover taxes 17,310 5,119 Minimum tax withholding paid on behalf of employees for restricted stock units (16,577 ) (5,163 ) Purchase of capped calls related to issuance of convertible senior notes — (43,168 ) Proceeds from issuance of convertible senior notes — 355,000 Proceeds from secured term loan 25,000 — Repayments on secured term loan (2,894 ) (43,215 ) Payment of debt issuance costs (278 ) (11,226 ) Finance lease principal payments (61 ) (90 ) Net cash provided by financing activities 115,503 258,707 Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 272 (519 ) Net increase in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash 32,949 203,344 Cash and cash equivalents, and restricted cash, beginning of period 275,302 166,434 Cash and cash equivalents, and restricted cash, end of period $ 308,251 $ 369,778 Expand ROCKET LAB USA, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31, 2025 AND 2024 (unaudited; in thousands) The tables provided below reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA, Non-GAAP gross profit, Non-GAAP research and development, net, Non-GAAP selling, general and administrative, Non-GAAP operating expenses, Non-GAAP operating loss and Non-GAAP total other income (expense), net with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. See above for additional information on the use of these non-GAAP financial measures. Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 2024 NET LOSS $ (60,616 ) $ (44,260 ) Depreciation 5,689 4,924 Amortization 3,018 3,389 Stock-based compensation expense 19,234 13,093 Transaction costs 1,378 372 Interest expense, net 2,586 898 Change in fair value of contingent consideration — (271 ) (Benefit) provision for income taxes (813 ) 5 Loss (gain) on foreign exchange 134 (311 ) Accretion of marketable securities and cash equivalents purchased at a discount (585 ) (842 ) Loss on disposal of assets 13 3 Loss on extinguishment of debt — 1,330 ADJUSTED EBITDA $ (29,962 ) $ (21,670 ) Expand Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 2024 GAAP Gross profit $ 35,247 $ 24,174 Stock-based compensation 3,920 3,503 Amortization of purchased intangibles and favorable lease 1,823 1,743 Non-GAAP Gross profit $ 40,990 $ 29,420 Non-GAAP Gross margin 33.4 % 31.7 % GAAP Research and development, net $ 55,109 $ 38,504 Stock-based compensation (4,894 ) (3,985 ) Amortization of purchased intangibles and favorable lease (165 ) (229 ) Non-GAAP Research and development, net $ 50,050 $ 34,290 GAAP Selling, general and administrative $ 39,326 $ 28,749 Stock-based compensation (10,420 ) (5,605 ) Amortization of purchased intangibles and favorable lease (776 ) (932 ) Transaction costs (1,378 ) (372 ) Change in fair value of contingent consideration — 271 Non-GAAP Selling, general and administrative $ 26,752 $ 22,111 GAAP Operating expenses $ 94,435 $ 67,253 Stock-based compensation (15,314 ) (9,590 ) Amortization of purchased intangibles and favorable lease (941 ) (1,161 ) Transaction costs (1,378 ) (372 ) Change in fair value of contingent consideration — 271 Non-GAAP Operating expenses $ 76,802 $ 56,401 GAAP Operating loss $ (59,188 ) $ (43,079 ) Total non-GAAP adjustments 23,376 16,098 Non-GAAP Operating loss $ (35,812 ) $ (26,981 ) GAAP Total other expense, net $ (2,241 ) $ (1,176 ) Loss (gain) on foreign exchange 134 (311 ) Loss on disposal of assets 13 3 Loss on extinguishment of debt — 1,330 Non-GAAP Total other expense, net $ (2,094 ) $ (154 ) Expand
Forbes
07-05-2025
- Climate
- Forbes
2 Hour Lead Time For Tornadoes Is Possible But Do We Want It?
302085 01: The Funnel Of A Tornado Touches Down May 12, 1997 In Miami, Fl. Five People Were Injured ... More And Approximately Twenty Thousand Residents Lost Power When The Storm Struck Downtown Miami. (Photo By) Getty Images We are in the peak of the U.S. severe weather season, and tornadic storms have been particularly prevalent this season. During my tenure in the meteorological field, one of the 'holy grail' research challenges has been to improve tornado warning lead times. A NOAA research program has demonstrated that we may be able to give up to two hours of advance warning of a tornado. Here's how it is possible as well as some thoughts on whether we want it. Two Hours of Lead Time Is Now Possible Of course, we want to give as much lead time as possibly for tornadoes, but it is complicated. Tornadoes can be life-altering events that affect families, businesses, and communities for years. I will explore, however, some of the caveats with additional lead time a bit later, but let's explore the Warn-on-Forecast System developed by NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory. The NOAA Warn on Forecast System has evolved from years of research. NOAA NSSL According to a NOAA website, the system, 'Seeks to equip forecasters with critical information between watches and warnings to allow them to offer longer lead times in the face of severe weather and tornadoes.' In March, a long-track, strong tornado hit Carter County, Missouri. This storm caused significant damage as the tornado tracked along the ground for more than 50 miles. According to NOAA, 'The emergency manager immediately shared information from the 7:40 p.m. phone call with other safety officials and on social media, he sounded the sirens well before any warnings were issued, and ultimately credits the advanced messaging, derived from WoFS, as having saved lives.' People had nearly two hours of lead time before the EF-3 tornado touched down in the county at 9:51 pm. Even prior to that issuance, the NWS issued a Special Weather Statement at 8:34 pm that, 'A significant and long-track tornado was likely in the area.' This was all based on the WoFS output. According to NOAA, forecasters spoke highly of the coordinated guidance provided by the NSSL scientists as the event unfolded. Timeline of warnings and tornado activity in Carter County, Missouri (March, 2025). NOAA NSSL What is WoFS According to the NOAA webpage, NSSL developed the system. They noted that it is, 'A rapidly updating, high-resolution computer model designed to predict the probability and location of severe weather like tornadoes.' That night the system predicted two hours in advance that supercell storms would cross Carter County. As a meteorologist myself, we often see guidance in the model that suggests tornadic storms. However, what strikes me is the confidence forecasters had to 'act' on the information so early. Given the path of destruction with this tornado, those early phone calls and Special Weather Statements likely saved lives. Are There Down Sides Of Too Much Lead Time? NOAA reported that in this example, 'The two-hour lead time given by the NWS Paducah Weather Forecast Office was invaluable…. Carter County emergency manager reported the number of people checked into a designated shelter in Van Buren rose from four to 125 well before the tornado arrived.' However, some studies have found mixed messages when it comes to lead time. A 2008 study published in the scientific journal Weather and Forecasting found that up to 15 minutes lead time led to a reduction in fatalities, but beyond that time threshold, there was an increase in fatalities compared to the absence of a warning. JOPLIN, MO - MAY 24: Damage is seen one day after a tornado tore through Joplin killing at least ... More 122 people on May 24, 2011 in Joplin, Missouri. The tornado that ripped through the town of about 50,000 people May 22, is being called the deadliest single tornado in the U.S. in 60 years. (Photo by) Getty Images In 1999, legendary severe weather expert Chuck Doswell wrote in Weatherzine , 'It's hard to imagine any real need for warnings with lead times longer than 32 minutes! In fact, it's possible that longer lead times would be less effective because they might not convey a strong enough sense of urgency.' The first tornado of the day, according to studies tends to have the lowest lead time, and it increases for subsequent tornadoes. Average lead time is around 13 to 15 minutes. In a 2002 study of schools and assisted living facilities, the response to the question, 'What is the ideal lead time?' ranged from a median of 15 minutes (schools) to 30 minutes (assisted living). A 2011 study found that the public ideally wanted about 34 minutes of lead time, which is less than the one to two hours now possible with the WoFS system. Why It All Matters That 2011 study suggested that too much lead time may lead to a reduced sense of urgency. I can see scenarios in which people said, 'Oh, I still have time to pick up groceries or the dry cleaning.' There is complexity and nuance to this discussion. There are likely many factors including the type of population, time of day, perceived vulnerability, and so forth. NOAA made the point that, 'Outdoor events, hospitals, schools, and people with no access to a tornado shelter need much more time to evacuate or find safe shelter.' Overall, the Missouri story is important because WoFS did not appear overnight. It evolved from years of research, development, and evaluation. Steven Thur is NOAA's Assistant Administrator for Research. In a social media post on LinkedIn accompanying the NOAA press release, he said, 'This new system will save lives. In 2024, NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration confirmed 1,796 tornados, the 2nd highest total since record-keeping began in 1950. Those storms killed 54 individuals across 17 states. So far in 2025, there have already been 35 fatalities across 16 states.' Henryville Elementary School staff greet returning students Wednesday, March 21, as they disembark ... More from school buses at temporary classrooms the school district is renting from Graceland Baptist Church in New Albany, Ind. Wednesday was the kindergarten through sixth grade students' first day back at school since a tornado heavily damaged Henryville, Ind.'s three-school campus. That March 2 storm was part of a wave of tornadoes that killed 13 Indiana residents. (AP Photo/Rick Callahan) Copyright 2012 AP. All rights reserved.
Yahoo
27-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
SpaceX Trounces Boeing and Lockheed as Space Force Hands Out $13 Billion in Launch Contracts
Don't look now, but space is about to get a whole lot more crowded. From 2022 through 2027, the second phase of Space Force's National Security Space Launch program (NSSL-2) initially included 25 planned space launch missions and about $5.5 billion in contracts, split roughly 60-40 between United Launch Alliance, or ULA, a joint venture between Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), and SpaceX, Elon Musk's privately held space company. (Although both the number and the value has since grown.) Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » With still two years left to go before NSSL-2 wraps up, however, earlier this month the Space Force announced the winners of a new series of contracts for the third phase of NSSL, NSSL-3, which will run from 2027 through 2032. Despite being the same duration as NSSL-2, however, NSSL-3 is going to involve even more space launches -- and a whole lot more money. Over the five years running from 2027 through 2032, Space Force intends to launch 84 times in NSSL-3, and a series of defense contract announcements released earlier this month implies that the total money spent on space launch will roughly double to $13.7 billion in total. That's a big increase, and a lot of money on offer. What's truly surprising about NSSL-3, however, is how the money's getting distributed. For the first time ever, SpaceX will win a larger share of the Space Force's business than does its archrival ULA. According to the Department of Defense, $5.9 billion of the NSSL-3 awards will go to SpaceX as a "Lane 2" proven launch provider using already certified rockets. That's about 43% of total funds on offer -- an increase from SpaceX's percentage win in NSSL-2. The DOD further clarifies that these funds will pay for not only launch services, but also other "mission unique services, mission acceleration, quick reaction/anomaly resolution, special studies, launch service support, fleet surveillance, and early integration studies/mission analysis." In contrast, ULA will receive less than $5.6 billion for its share of NSSL-3 Lane 2 contracts (NSSL3.2), or less than 40% of total NSSL-3 funds. Bringing up the rear, Jeff Bezos' private space company, Blue Origin, will receive $2.4 billion in NSSL3.2 funds. That's less than 18% of the total, but this is the first time Blue Origin will be winning any NSSL funds, so from that perspective, the increase from 0% to 18% makes Blue Origin the biggest winner on this contract. No other space companies won NSSL3.2 contracts. However, as noted last week, two other companies bidding as-yet uncertified rockets, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) and privately held Stoke Space, were awarded contracts under the NSSL-3 Lane 1 (or NSSL3.1, covering launch missions using experimental rockets) program. Alongside SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin, these companies will split $5.6 billion in awards under the Lane 1 program. This latest space news is therefore pretty great news for all sorts of space companies. SpaceX is the most obvious winner as it's getting the biggest pot of money. Blue Origin is presumably happy just to be nominated for a change, as are Rocket Lab and Stoke. But what about ULA? What about Boeing and Lockheed, which at the present time, after all, represent two-thirds of the publicly traded space stocks participating in the NSSL program that investors can actually invest in? I'm afraid the news is worse for these two stocks, and arguably even worse than it seems. Not only do Boeing and Lockheed have to split the proceeds of only 40% of the money on offer from NSSL3.2, instead of the 60% share they received last time around, but they could also, potentially, get even less than that. According to a report from SpaceNews, you see, Space Systems Command has already begun handing out "task orders" awarded under the NSSL3.2 umbrella contract, naming SpaceX to conduct seven specific launch missions in fiscal 2025, but ULA only two. Originally, the split was supposed to be much closer, and much more resembling a total split in funding under NSSL3.2, with SpaceX running five missions, and ULA four. Delays in the construction of new West Coast launch facilities for ULA's Vulcan rocket, however, convinced Space Force to shift a couple of missions originally earmarked for ULA to SpaceX instead. (Delays in ULA winning certification for Vulcan may have also contributed to Space Force's decision.) With Vulcan finally certified, investors in Boeing and Lockheed can hope that over time, the task order awards will get smoothed out, and that ULA won't lose too much business to its rocky start. But whether that hope will be fulfilled remains to be seen. One thing's for certain: The longer ULA takes to ramp up its launch cadence, the more likely it is to lose market share to not only SpaceX, but to new space company rivals Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and Stoke Space, too. Before you buy stock in Boeing, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Boeing wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $594,046!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $680,390!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 872% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 160% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025 Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin and Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. SpaceX Trounces Boeing and Lockheed as Space Force Hands Out $13 Billion in Launch Contracts was originally published by The Motley Fool
