11-07-2025
Karnataka's greenhouse gas emissions could exceed 400 MT by 2050: Report
Karnataka's greenhouse gas emissions could exceed 400 million tonnes (MT) by 2050, states a new report by not-for-profit research organisation CSTEP.
Though the emissions could exceed 400 MT by 2050, emissions can be cut to 50 MT, mainly through electrification, renewable energy, and demand-side interventions, the report, titled 'Namma SAFARI: Low-Carbon Development Pathways for Karnataka,' said.
Six key factors
Namma SAFARI is Karnataka's first integrated system dynamics model, mapping long-term interactions across six key sectors — energy, transport, industry, buildings, agriculture, and land use — till 2050. Developed by CSTEP, the model supports evidence-based planning for a low-carbon, sustainable future.
'The model projects Karnataka's population will cross 75 million by 2050, with its Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) rising to ₹128 lakh crore (2011 constant prices). Under a business-as-usual path, greenhouse gas emissions could exceed 400 MT by 2050. However, a low-carbon scenario, informed by expert consultations, shows emissions can be cut to ~50 MT, mainly through electrification, renewable energy, and demand-side interventions,' CSTEP said.
The report also highlighted that in the buildings sector, electricity demand could reach 40% of total use by 2050. 'The low-carbon path reduces this by 25% through passive cooling, green construction, and rooftop solar. Enforcing energy codes such as Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) and Eco Niwas Samhita (ENS) is key,' it added.
Role of industry
It further stated that industry is the largest contributor to electricity demand and emissions. 'To guarantee demand and drive economies of scale, a mandate for a minimum share (~25%) of public infrastructure projects to use certified green cement or steel, along with preferential pricing for compliance, would boost investment in low-carbon production. Decarbonising these industries also has other co-benefits,' it said.
The other highlights of the report are in agriculture, which currently uses ~30% of the State's electricity; demand drops to zero in the low-carbon case through off-grid solar irrigation. 'Scaling up minimum support price coverage for crops such as millets, pulses, and oilseeds (currently just 8%) will support this shift,' CSTEP said.
'For transport, shifting 33% of freight to rail by 2030 could save 50 crore litres of diesel annually. Electrification doubles power demand to ~54.5 TWh by 2050. Incentives for rail, improved logistics, and electric vehicle (EV) expansion are needed,' it further added.
