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Business Recorder
18 hours ago
- Politics
- Business Recorder
Nuclear weapons plan remains ‘sole guarantor of peace in SA': Adviser
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme remains the 'sole guarantor of peace and stability in South Asia,' said Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (retired), Adviser to the National Command Authority, on Friday. He made these remarks at a seminar hosted by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) to mark the 27th anniversary of Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests, widely commemorated as Youm-e-Takbeer. This year's observance assumed added significance in the aftermath of heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Indian military actions, including Operation Sindoor, were widely criticised by speakers at the event as reckless provocations designed to test Pakistan's thresholds in a nuclearised environment. Pakistan responded with a series of precise retaliatory measures under Operation Bunyan un Marsoos, part of the broader Marka-e-Haq campaign. Experts at the seminar said the response reasserted deterrence, restored strategic balance, and marked what they described as a 'decisive paradigm shift' in the regional balance. 'It showcased Pakistan's credible nuclear capability and reaffirmed that this deterrent —operationalised through Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) — serves as the cornerstone of peace and strategic stability in South Asia,' said one speaker, adding that the mini-war underscored the deterrent's enduring role in preserving peace. The seminar featured senior officials and strategic thinkers, including Ambassador SohailMahmood, Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI); Muhammad Naeem, former Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC); Dr Adil Sultan, Dean of Air University; and Brig Dr Zahirul Haider Kazmi (retired), Adviser on Arms Control at the Strategic Plans Division (SPD). Speakers observed a pattern in India's behaviour — using false flag operations as a casus belli to justify limited strikes against Pakistan while disregarding the prevailing nuclear environment. They warned that such actions risk dangerous miscalculations. They emphasised that Pakistan's nuclear capability is a strategic necessity that has effectively deterred full-scale war, even as threats have evolved in complexity and domain. The panel stressed that Pakistan now possesses a comprehensive toolkit of both kinetic and non-kinetic options to respond to any future Indian provocations, and that its response will follow a Quid Pro Quo Plus (QPQ+) approach — swift, proportionate, and precise — designed to neutralize aggression and compel de-escalation. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Bloomberg
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
The India-Pakistan Conflict Is Testing the Threshold for Nuclear War
For several hours on Saturday, May 3, it looked like the India-Pakistan conflict risked spiraling into nuclear war. Pakistani security sources leaked to a range of media organizations that the country's innocuously named National Command Authority, which is responsible for handling nuclear weapons, would hold an urgent meeting. Although the government denied the reports a few hours later, the implicit threat had its intended effect: The US and other nations raced to calm things down, eventually producing a ceasefire that is still holding roughly two weeks later.
Time of India
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Pak a rogue nation with nukes, must be under IAEA scanner: Rajnath Singh
NEW DELHI: Calling Pakistan a rogue nation with nukes, defence minister said Thursday its nuclear arsenal should be placed under the watch of International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ), and stressed that Islamabad's nuclear blackmail failed to deter India's response to terrorism under . Tired of too many ads? go ad free now 'PM Modi has redefined India's policy against terrorism which now says that any attack on Indian soil will be considered as an act of war,' said Singh, addressing troops at Badami Bagh Cantonment in Srinagar on his first visit to J&K since Op Sindoor was launched May 7. Singh's comments come soon after the PM drew a new red line, stressing that Pakistan's nuclear blackmail will no longer work and India would continue to give cross-border kinetic responses to terror attacks. Pak's been deceiving India for long: Rajnath India has a clearly stated 'no first-use' nuclear weapons policy but Pakistan has deliberately left it ambiguous and often indulges in nuclear sabre-rattling. It brandishes, for instance, its short-range Nasr (Hatf-IX) and other missiles as a counter to India's conventional military superiority. Pakistan, of course, has steadily built up its nuclear arsenal due to its well-documented proliferation nexus with China and North Korea. This nuclear option as a leverage against India came to the fore even last week when Islamabad first announced a meeting of its nuclear National Command Authority but then subsequently backed down amid global concern. At Srinagar, noting that the world has witnessed how irresponsibly Islamabad has issued nuclear threats to New Delhi several times, Singh said, 'I raise this question before the world: Are nuclear weapons safe in the hands of such an irresponsible and rogue nation? Pakistan's nuclear weapons should be taken under the supervision of the IAEA.' Tired of too many ads? go ad free now The defence minister called Operation Sindoor the 'biggest action' taken by India against terrorism in history, and a testament to the nation's commitment to go to any extent to eliminate the menace. 'Our forces have shown to the world that their aim is precise and pinpointed, and the task of counting (the body bags) is left to the enemies,' he said. Terrorists targeted tourists in Pahalgam based on their 'dharma' (religion), but the Indian forces killed terrorists based on their 'karma' (deeds) in the long-range strikes conducted in Pakistan and PoK on May 7, Rajnath said. 'It was the dream of every soldier that we will reach terrorist hideouts and destroy them. It was our dharma to eliminate the terrorists.' Addressing the troops, chief minister Omar Abdullah and Army chief Gen Upendra Dwivedi, Singh said India has always prioritised peace and never supported war but when its sovereignty is attacked, it is necessary to respond. 'If Pakistan continues to support terrorism, it will pay a heavier price,' he said. Recalling Pakistan's declaration about 21 years ago in front of then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee that terrorism will no longer be exported from its land, Singh said Pakistan has been 'deceiving India' for long. Pakistan must stop sheltering anti-India terrorist organisations and not allow its land to be used against India, he said. Pakistan has reached an abysmal state where it seeks loans from the IMF, while India falls in the category of those countries which provide funds to the IMF so that they can help poor countries, he added.
Japan Forward
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Forward
Why the India- Pakistan Ceasefire Must Hold
このページを 日本語 で読む India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire, brokered by the United States. It halts the fighting that has been ongoing since a late May terrorist attack in the Kashmir region. The Kashmir region is a perennial powder keg, where the two countries have repeatedly clashed or waged war. Both nations claim sovereignty over the entire region. Even though both countries are nuclear powers with comparable numbers of warheads in their respective arsenals, they continue to face off against each other. It is a tense situation, which could have escalated in unimaginable ways. Washington's mediation efforts nevertheless managed to achieve a ceasefire through short-term negotiations and are deserving of praise. However, both sides continue to claim that the other side is violating the ceasefire. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the situation will truly normalize. To ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, both countries should exercise maximum restraint and abide by the ceasefire agreement. We hope that the United States will continue to encourage communication and de-escalation of tensions between the two countries. Security officials inspect a Pakistani drone attack on a house in Indian-administered Kashmir on May 10. (©AP via Kyodo News) An April 22 terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir triggered the current military conflict. Twenty-six civilians were killed in the attack. The Indian government accused Pakistan of involvement and retaliated with a missile attack on May 7. Pakistan's government, in turn, condemned the Indian attack as an "act of war" and retaliated with missiles and drones. Then, on May 10, Pakistan attacked an Indian air force base. It claimed that this was in response to an Indian attack on one of its own air force bases near the capital of Islamabad. The situation became even more tense after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reportedly called a meeting of the National Command Authority. NCA is the country's decision-making authority on nuclear weapons. This and other disturbing developments prompted Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US officials to move to arrange a ceasefire. President Donald Trump was eager to announce on social media that "India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE." That was likely due to his desire to highlight his diplomatic achievements amid the difficulties of the Ukraine peace talks. As both India and Pakistan were keen to avoid a prolonged conflict, they welcomed the US mediation. Quad country foreign ministers. From left to right, Takeshi Iwaya, Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Marco Rubio and Penny Wong. (©Kyodo) The Indian subcontinent achieved independence in August 1947. Ever since, India and Pakistan have been fighting over the ownership of the Kashmir region. They each possess around 170 nuclear warheads in their faceoff. At the same time, domestic extremist groups continuously stoke the fires of conflict. China also claims parts of the region and continues to be engaged in a border dispute with India. The international community must remain vigilant to prevent this complex, seemingly irreconcilable quarrel from developing into a chain of regional conflicts. Japan, which maintains friendly relations with both India and Pakistan, should also step up its efforts to ensure that the ceasefire agreement is respected. Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun このページを 日本語 で読む
Indian Express
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
Op Sindoor shows India's success in carving out space for conventional conflict below nuclear threshold
Written by Arun Sahgal and Ambuj Sahu After three days of intense, technology-driven conflict — marked by missile strikes, drone incursions, air combat, and artillery exchanges — the kinetic phase of the India-Pakistan standoff has wound down to a temporary pause following a declared ceasefire. It is now time to take a preliminary call on both the causes and the dynamics of the crisis and situate its implications on the nuclear equation between both countries. First, the crisis demonstrated India's technological and tactical prowess: The capability to execute precision strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on both terrorist bases and deep-set targets of air bases and air infrastructure, along with the robustness of indigenous air defence systems. Yet, despite these operational gains, the most consequential outcome of Operation Sindoor lies elsewhere. The principal takeaway is India's success in carving out space for conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold — taking the battle to the Pakistani mainland, inflicting substantial damage on military assets, while simultaneously averting nuclear escalation. For years, New Delhi has grappled with the challenge of responding to cross-border terrorism under the shadow of Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, which absurdly narrowed the threshold for conflict and effectively neutralised India's punitive options. This time was different. As the Prime Minister asserted in his address to the nation, India, in the future, will fiercely retaliate against all acts of terror and not capitulate to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail. This carries profound implications for any future India-Pakistan crisis. Pakistan has long employed its so-called doctrine of Full Spectrum Deterrence to paralyse India's strategic calculus by asserting escalation dominance across every rung of the conflict ladder. Lt General Khalid Kidwai, former Director General of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division (SPD) and now an advisor to Pakistan's National Command Authority (NCA), articulated four thresholds for deterrence failure: Spatial (loss of territory), military (destruction of key assets and air bases), economic (threats to the national economy), and political (internal destabilisation). Under this doctrinal umbrella, Pakistan pursued cross-border terrorism with impunity, leveraging the threat of nuclear retaliation to prevent Indian military responses. This posture rested on two flawed assumptions: First, that Pakistan had both the capability and confidence to respond to any calibrated Indian retaliation; second, after the initial responses, India would face a dilemma — either escalate dangerously close to the nuclear threshold or seek an off-ramp. Any premature de-escalation by India, in this calculus, would deliver a propaganda victory to Pakistan and place India on the back foot. Pakistan believed India would be forced into higher-magnitude escalation to preserve its doctrine of punitive response. It would ultimately risk the breakdown of conventional deterrence and enable Pakistan to threaten the use of low-yield nuclear weapons under its Full Spectrum Deterrence. This framework, to a considerable extent, succeeded in drawing international attention each time India contemplated higher-order military action. Operation Sindoor shattered this self-serving narrative. On May 7, India executed precision strikes against nine terror camps located within Pakistan and PoK. In retaliation, Pakistan launched a barrage of drone, missile, and artillery strikes against both civilian and military infrastructure. India's air defence systems — refined since the standoff with China four years ago — held firm, achieving a 99 per cent kill rate by successfully intercepting and neutralising most incoming threats. At the second rung, on the morning of May 9, India destroyed Pakistan's Chinese-origin HQ-9B air defence system stationed in Lahore. Pakistan escalated its drone and missile attacks, targeting 26 sites and cities along the western border. India's counter-response was immediate and overwhelming: Massive retaliatory strikes were launched across both the International Border and the Line of Control. By the morning of May 10, the Indian Air Force had decimated major Pakistani air bases, including high-value targets such as Nur Khan (just 10 kilometres from Islamabad) and Sargodha (reportedly housing nuclear-capable F-16s). India had thus shifted its posture from a proportionate to a clearly disproportionate response, effectively dismantling Pakistan's nuclear doctrine. Furthermore, a reported strike near the Kirna Hills — suspected of housing Pakistan's nuclear assets in underground silos — caused panic within the NCA, revealing the vulnerability of its command-and-control infrastructure. The sudden announcement of an NCA meeting (later denied) and possible orders for nuclear weapon deployment (unverified) were acts of brinkmanship, aimed at signalling proximity to the nuclear threshold. What stands out starkly is India's determination to deal a decisive blow to terror infrastructure and convey unequivocally that such acts will be met with overwhelming force — that no terrorist or their handler will find sanctuary. Subsequent strikes on Pakistan's air defences, air bases, and critical infrastructure across its territory showcased India's intent to degrade military capabilities while exposing the hollowness of Pakistan's 'First Use' doctrine. The Balakot strike of 2019 had already exposed the cracks in Pakistan's nuclear bluff; Operation Sindoor has now widened that breach and tested its strategic boundaries. In summary, there are four takeaways. One, India called out Pakistan's nuclear doctrine effectively, ascending multiple rungs on the escalation ladder without provoking nuclear retaliation. Two, it established a doctrine of deterrence by punishment, that any future terrorist attack will exact severe costs. Three, India has drawn a new red line — acts of terrorism will now be treated as acts of war. This framing may enhance deterrence by denial. Four, the non-military thresholds of full spectrum doctrine are breached. Not only do the Indus Waters Treaty and other economic levers exercised after the Pahalgam attack remain untouched after the ceasefire, but India has also left the door ajar for testing economic and political thresholds in future crises. Pakistan had leveraged nuclear brinkmanship to establish a perceived parity with India on the global stage. But the world must now acknowledge Pakistan as a haven for transnational terrorist groups and recognise its reckless nuclear posturing for what it is: A threat to regional and global stability. An effective Indian deterrent now rests on communicating one clear message: Nuclear threats will no longer serve as a shield for state-sponsored terrorism. Arun Sahgal is former founder-director, Net Assessment, HQ Integrated Defence Staff. Ambuj Sahu is a PhD Candidate at Indiana University Bloomington
