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Gulf Insider
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Gulf Insider
Bangladesh's Increasing Alignment With China And Pakistan Could Imperil India's Great Power plans
Bangladeshi Major General (retired) A.L.M. Fazlur Rahman, who serves as chair of the National Independent Commission of Inquiry investigating the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles massacre, posted on Facebook that Bangladesh should occupy India's Northeastern States if India goes to war with Pakistan. He later explained that preparing for this scenario might deter India, which could in turn prevent Pakistan's possible defeat, thus averting the existential threat that India would then pose to Bangladesh. The incumbent government, which came to power after last summer's US-backed regime change, distanced itself from his post but the damage to bilateral trust was done. Rahman's words followed interim Bangladeshi leader Muhammad Yunus' scandalous comments about India's Northeastern States during a trip to China earlier this year. They were analyzed here at the time as a veiled threat to once again host Indian-designated terrorist-separatist groups if India doesn't make concessions to Bangladesh. This year's two territorial controversies thus far were preceded by Yunus' special assistant Mahfuj Alam sharing a provocative map on X in late December that made claims to surrounding Indian states, with these sequential developments altogether ringing alarm bells in Delhi about Dhaka's intentions. Although each were 'plausibly deniable' in that no official territorial claims were made, the trend is unmistakable, and it's that the new Bangladeshi authorities are weaponizing fears of this scenario. From their ultra-nationalist perspective, this is a pragmatic means to rebalance what they consider to be Bangladesh's lopsided relations with much larger India, but it risks backfiring by heightening Delhi's threat perceptions with all that entails. In the current context of India signaling that it might launch at least one surgical strike against Pakistan in retaliation for last month's Pahalgam terrorist attack, Indian military planners can't confidently rule out that Pakistan might coordinate its response with Bangladesh. To make matters worse, Rahman also wrote in his two posts that Bangladesh 'needs to start discussing a joint military system with China', which lays claim to India's Northeastern State of Arunachal Pradesh. Seeing as how there's always the possibility that another Indo-Pak war could lead to China intervening on Pakistan's side, which Indian military planners call the two-front war scenario, this latest twist could lead to a three-front war as the incumbent Bangladeshi government aligns closer with both against India. India already felt that it was becoming encircled by China over the past decade, but this might soon evolve into a siege mentality if ties with Bangladesh continue to worsen due to its officials' rhetoric. The new regional security system that's taking shape as Bangladesh de facto incorporates itself into the Sino-Pak nexus could decisively shift the balance of power against India. In response, India might intensify the military dimension of its strategic partnership with the US, albeit more on the US' terms than before. India cherishes its strategic autonomy, which is why it's thus far declined to participate in the US' multilateral containment of China, but that could change if the US informally makes more military-strategic support of India depend on this. Amidst its increasing encirclement that might soon evolve into a siege mentality as explained, India might feel that it has no choice but to concede to this so as to avoid being coerced into concessions by China, either scenario of which could imperil its Great Power plans.
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First Post
01-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Bangladesh should occupy NE states if India attacks Pakistan': Yunus aide on Pahalgam
In a Facebook post, Major General (retired) ALM Fazlur Rahman has said that Bangladesh should occupy India's seven northeast states if it attacks Pakistan in response to Phalagam terror attack read more A senior official appointed by the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government has said that Bangladesh should occupy India's seven northeast states if it attacks Pakistan in response to Phalagam terror attack. The remark made by Major General (retired) ALM Fazlur Rahman — the chairperson of the National Independent Commission of Inquiry probing the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) massacre — on Facebook comes at a time when Dhaka's ties with New Delhi has seen a downturn after ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August last year. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'If India attacks Pakistan, Bangladesh should occupy seven states of North East India. In this regard, I think it is necessary to start a discussion on a joint military system with China,' Rahman said in a Facebook post in Bengali on Tuesday. The post received a 'like' from fellow commission member Shahnawaz Khan Chandan, a former member of the Islamist student organization Islami Chhatra Shibir. According to a report by The Print, Chandan, currently an assistant professor at Jagannath University in Dhaka, is reportedly someone whom Yunus is said to have placed 'complete trust' in. The timing of the post is significant, coming amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions following the Pahalgam terror attack. In a series of retaliatory measures, India has suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, shut down the Attari post, and downgraded diplomatic ties. Meanwhile, Bangladesh has moved closer to Pakistan following Sheikh Hasina's exit. The two countries held their first foreign secretary-level talks in nearly 15 years this month in Dhaka, focusing on bilateral and historical issues. The dialogue follows quiet diplomatic overtures, including relaxed visa norms and discussions on 1971-related grievances. A visit by Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar is expected but remains on hold amid rising regional tensions. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Who is Fazlur Rahman? Fazlur Rahman, a retired army officer, led the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) during the 2001 border clashes with India, in which 16 BSF personnel were killed. Now elevated to a position equivalent to a Supreme Court appellate division judge, Rahman has pledged to expose the 'foreign conspiracy' behind the 2009 Pilkhana massacre. Claiming the original probe into the BDR mutiny concealed critical truths, Rahman has said, 'We aim to determine whether any foreign entity was involved in the carnage,' hinting at alleged Indian involvement. His latest remarks are likely to add to growing friction with New Delhi. They come shortly after Yunus, declared in a meeting with Chinese officials that Bangladesh — not India — is the true gateway to South Asia. 'The eastern part of India, known as the Seven Sisters, is landlocked. They have no access to the ocean. We are the only guardians of the ocean in this region. This opens up huge possibilities,' Yunus said in a video of the meeting that has since gone viral. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD He also added that Bangladesh could act as 'an extension of the Chinese economy—building, producing, and marketing goods for China and the world.' With inputs from agencies
The Print
01-05-2025
- Politics
- The Print
Retd Bangladeshi major general calls for ‘occupation' of India's Northeast if it attacks Pakistan
'If India attacks Pakistan, Bangladesh should occupy seven states of North East India. In this regard, I think it is necessary to start a discussion on a joint military system with China,' Rahman posted Tuesday in Bengali on Facebook. The remark of Major General (retired) A.L.M. Fazlur Rahman, the chairperson of the National Independent Commission of Inquiry probing the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) massacre, comes at a time when Dhaka's ties with New Delhi has seen a downturn after ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August last year. New Delhi: Bangladesh should occupy India's seven northeast states if the neighbouring country attacks Pakistan, a senior official appointed by the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government has said. The post was endorsed with a 'like' by fellow commission member Shahnawaz Khan Chandan, who is a former member of the Islamist student group Islami Chhatra Shibir. Chandan, an assistant professor in Dhaka's Jagannath University, is someone whom Yunus is said to have 'placed complete trust' with. The timing of the post can hardly be missed as it comes amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan post the Pahalgam terror attack. In a slew of sweeping punitive actions, India has kept the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, closed the Integrated Check Post at Attari, and downgraded diplomatic ties. In contrast, Bangladesh has warmed up to Pakistan amid diplomatic chill with India post Hasina's ouster. The two countries held their first foreign secretary-level talks in nearly 15 years this month in Dhaka, aiming to address bilateral and historical issues. The talks follow quiet diplomatic overtures, including eased visa rules and renewed engagement on 1971-related grievances. A visit by Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar is also expected later, currently on hold amid growing tensions. Also Read: 'Focus on protecting own minorities'—India to Bangladesh after Yunus govt condemns Murshidabad violence Who is Fazlur Rahman Rahman headed the BDR when the paramilitary force killed 16 personnel of the Border Security Force (BSF) in the 2001 Bangladesh-India border clashes. Now elevated to a status equal to a Supreme Court appellate division judge, the retired army officer has vowed to uncover the 'foreign conspiracy' behind the 2009 Pilkhana killings. Rahman has maintained that the original mutiny probe covered up a deeper conspiracy. 'We aim to determine whether any foreign entity was involved in the carnage,' he previously said, alluding to alleged Indian interference. Rahman's latest remark is likely to cause further strain in ties with India, as it comes after Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus last month asserted that Bangladesh—not India—is the only true gateway to South Asia, in a meeting with Chinese officials. 'The eastern part of India, known as the Seven Sisters, is landlocked. They have no access to the ocean. We are the only guardians of the ocean in this region. This opens up huge possibilities,' Yunus said in a video of the meeting that has gone viral on social media. He added that Bangladesh could serve as 'an extension of the Chinese economy—building, producing, and marketing goods for China and the world.' What is the independent commission The National Independent Commission of Inquiry was set up in December 2024 to re-investigate the failed 2009 paramilitary mutiny and its aftermath, including the claims of foreign involvement. During the uprising, BDR soldiers went on a violent rampage at their Dhaka headquarters, stealing thousands of weapons and killing their commanding officers. The mutiny quickly spread nationwide before it was crushed by the army. Seventy-four people, including 57 army officers, were killed in the carnage. Since Hasina's ouster in August 2024, families of officers killed in the mutiny have pushed for the case to be reopened, accusing her of undermining the military to consolidate power. The original trials, conducted under her government, led to mass convictions via special courts—criticised by the United Nations for lacking due process. Amid renewed investigation, local media outlet Amar Desh Patrika also revived claims that Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) orchestrated the 2009 massacre, allegedly bringing in trained assassins disguised as athletes and patients who later fled on a delayed flight. The report said former home minister Sahara Khatun's Hotel Imperial in Farmgate was allegedly used as a safehouse, while CCTV footage from the scene was reportedly destroyed by then BDR chief Moinul Islam. Despite being summoned, many key suspects in the Hasina administration allegedly evaded questioning. (Edited by Tony Rai) Also Read: 1971 or 2024? A political battle in Bangladesh over when the nation found true liberation
