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Yahoo
27-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
As peace efforts falter, Russia eyes major summer push in Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian military officials and defense analysts warn that Russia is preparing for a major offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast this summer, aiming to seize the territory it has failed to fully control since 2022. Some analysts interviewed by the Washington Post say the offensive has already begun, coinciding with stalled U.S.-brokered peace efforts and Moscow's rejection of repeated Western ceasefire calls. U.S. experts believe President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that a military victory is still possible, although continued sanctions and battlefield losses have strained Russia's capabilities. Putin has long prioritized control over the entire Donetsk region, especially after failing to capture Kyiv early in the war. In September 2022, he declared Donetsk and three other partially occupied Ukrainian oblasts as part of the Russian Federation. While Russia claims to seek peace, it insists that talks must address what it calls the "root causes" of the war. After direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16, both sides agreed to draft a memorandum outlining principles for a future settlement. Read also: Russia pushes forward in Donetsk Oblast, threatening Ukrainian pocket around Toretsk Analysts say that while the main offensive will focus on Donetsk—particularly the towns of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka—Russia is also preparing smaller operations in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. Mykola Bielieskov of Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies told the Washington Post that Kostiantynivka remains a key target as it is a "promising" prospect for the Russian forces at present, he said, given Russia's ability to attack it from three directions. Despite past predictions that these towns would fall by late 2023, Ukrainian forces have continued to hold them through significant effort. Ukraine, however, remains under strain due to recruitment shortfalls and limited firepower, while Russia has exceeded its military recruitment goals. Still, with around 125,000 troops on the Sumy and Kharkiv borders, Russia lacks the manpower for full-scale offensives in both regions, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. Instead, Russia may attempt to seize small territories to create "buffer zones," as described by Russian officials. Russian forces have already taken four villages in northeastern Sumy Oblast and aim to pressure regional centers like Sumy city. Ukraine continues to focus on defense, aiming to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces rather than reclaim territory. This strategy hinges on sustained foreign weapons supplies, especially from the U.S., which are not guaranteed. Europe has signaled increased support, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons. Russia has seized on this move as proof that Europe opposes peace. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism of Russian airstrikes by saying Trump's frustration is directed at European leaders for allegedly undermining his peace efforts. Read also: Bracing for more Russian attacks, an anxious Ukraine waits for Trump to do… something We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
‘There we go again' — For war-weary Europe, Trump-Putin call yet another signal to ‘wake up'
After a two-hour call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia reiterated its refusal for a full ceasefire in the war in Ukraine while the U.S. once again failed to respond with any significant pressure. For observers across Europe, watching the way the negotiations have been unfolding was an unpleasant reminder that the U.S. can no longer be relied on as a partner — but it was not a surprising revelation. "Chewing the same gum which has lost its taste is not the best experience," Mykola Bielieskov, Research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Kyiv Independent. Frederic Petit, a French National Assembly deputy, was similarly underwhelmed by the information shared about the call. "It gives nothing, because of all the contradicting signals that are coming from the Kremlin and also a few of them are coming from the Trump administration," he told the Kyiv Independent. "For example, about the business deal that (they) could do together — does it mean, Mr. President, that you will shift the sanctions or not?" The phone call, which took place on May 19 after a conversation between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky, was followed by another call between Trump and other European leaders, including the Ukrainian president. According to Zelensky, during his phone call with Trump, he advocated for a ceasefire, for the opportunity to express views on a potential memorandum that will be negotiated between the U.S. and Russia, and for decisions about Ukraine not to be made without his country's inclusion. But Russia did not back down from its maximalist demands during the call, according to statements from officials. It has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine hand over more territory than Russia currently controls — a non-starter for Ukraine and a condition that has been a roadblock in negotiations. Throughout the peace process that began when Trump took office in January, Trump has repeatedly put heavy pressure on Ukraine to make concessions to Russia, while refusing to apply similar tactics to Russia. As information about the discussions reached experts across Europe, it was yet another of many reminders since Trump's election that Europe will need to be more self-reliant. "Russia is prepared for a prolonged war and is currently not thinking about peace," Eitvydas Bajarunas, ambassador at Lithuania's Foreign Ministry and visiting fellow at the Center for Europe Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent. "Clearly, Russia would prefer a short pause to catch its breath, and ideally, to see some sanctions lifted. At the same time, Putin doesn't want to discourage Trump, so he will continue to respond positively to Trump's requests to consider ending hostilities — though only by imitating negotiations." Bajarunas also noted that negotiations for peace in Ukraine have fallen in priority for Washington. Having failed to deliver on a campaign promise to end the war within 100 days, Trump again threatened on May 19 to abandon efforts to end the war if progress was not made towards a peace deal. "Europe can do more, but is choosing to hope for either Putin or Trump changing their minds." "In this context, I see only one solution. Europe must take responsibility and lead the way — impose sanctions on Russia, supply weapons to Ukraine, and offer a concrete peace plan," Bajarunas said. "Time to wake up. It's now or never," he added. The subsequent phone call with European leaders was one positive sign, said Yohann Michel, a senior research fellow at the defense research institute IESD in Lyon. "This time, he's calling the Europeans and we might actually have the Europeans at the table," Michel said. "Instead of having bilateral or trilateral talks somewhere where we are out of the room and out of the situation, we might actually be able to participate directly." Yet Michel also added that Trump's stance has shifted frequently and previous positive signals have been sometimes short-lived. "My first reaction was to think, okay, there we go again. Trump had a different conversation with someone else. Therefore, he will now completely change his representation and understanding of the issue." Europe has repeatedly called for ramped-up support to Ukraine as the new U.S. administration has signaled its unwillingness to continue providing aid to Kyiv. "While discussions about European-led peacekeeping or security assistance are still in early stages — and would be complicated without U.S. backing — the UK and its allies are beginning to think seriously about what a more self-reliant European response might look like," said Ievgeniia Kopytsia, a legal expert and visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford. The day after Trump and Putin spoke, the EU approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, including measures against Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, which the country uses to break embargoes and sustain its economy. "More sanctions on Russia are in the works," top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas said on X, announcing the package. But for many, Europe's measures fall short of the moment. "Trump is constantly surprising everyone by how he manages to help Putin justify continuing his aggression. And everyone (Ukrainians and Europeans) is playing their part in this charade," Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister, told the Kyiv Independent. "Europe can do more, but is choosing to hope for either Putin or Trump to change their minds." One step Europe could take would be to quickly unfreeze Russian assets that have been seized and transfer the money to Ukraine, Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute, told the Kyiv Independent. "They can ramp up their production of drones. That's not the only thing they need, of course. They need training. Europeans could come in and train again, especially if more air defense is provided." "But there is not a sufficient sense of urgency," she said. "It's bad enough that the United States doesn't understand that we're on war footing. But the fact that the Europeans don't understand that is really distressing." Dementiy Bilyi, a 56-year-old political scientist and local historian, has watched Europe's response from Kherson, a city which remained under Russian occupation for 256 days from February to November 2022 before it was liberated during the Kherson counteroffensive. Bilyi is trying to keep in touch with people on the Russian-occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, who keep him informed about the information space in the area, which the Kremlin dominates. "Many Russian Telegram channels are created in the occupied part of the Kherson region. They often try to spread the narrative that Russia will come back here," he said. "People are tired; they need support. They need to hear words of support from our European partners and allies. This helps them not to lose hope." Read also: 'Trump doesn't know how to deal with gangsters' — US lets Ukraine down, once again We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Telegraph
04-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
How Ukraine plans to survive when the US steps back
On a sunny afternoon near the eastern front, a Ukrainian artillery crew show off their stockpile for a D-30 howitzer. The ammunition is 152mm, Soviet-calibre, but the manufacturers are not. The shells are brand new. When US deliveries froze and the front lines wavered in winter 2024, Ukraine had already been producing, purchasing and sourcing weapons – sometimes on its own, sometimes with the backing of its allies – preparing a back-up plan for the day that vital American military aid stopped flowing. With the last US packages signed off by Joe Biden expected to expire before summer, that eventuality is on the horizon. Many see the long-delayed minerals deal signed this week between Kyiv and Washington as a potential route to unlock fresh US weapons. But the agreement offered no American security or aid guarantees. And although the Trump administration informed Congress of its intention to approve arms exports worth at least $50 million (£37 million) to Ukraine on Wednesday, Ukraine and its European allies know that American assistance will not last forever. Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Telegraph: 'I guess there's one thing people miss when discussing US blackmail over aid right now. 'In all plausible scenarios, assistance will eventually end – even if Ukraine accepts the US peace framework. So what would be the point of agreeing to such a deal if there would be no aid left?' If the American weapons don't start flowing again, Ukraine will face serious challenges. Exactly how severe remains the great unknown. It is a complex equation that Volodymyr Zelensky and his aides have been working to solve since 2023. Following its failed summer counter-offensive and Russia's push from Avdiivka, Kyiv made a decision: to bet on itself. It laid the first foundations of a strategy built for survival. Unlike its Western partners, Ukraine set its sights on the long game. A glimpse of future warfare 'The battlefield evolves every six months – that's what makes this war different from others,' says Oleksandr Yarmak, a sergeant in the Ukrainian army's unmanned systems forces. 'That speed of innovation gives us the edge over the enemy.' Simple and complex at the same time: the very same factors that make victory difficult also prevent defeat. The American guns and the shells remain vital, but no longer dictate the fight. Drones have taken much of their place. Last year, Ukraine produced more than two million FPVs and thousands more designed to strike high-value targets – including ammunition stockpiles and oil depots – at distances of up to 1,700km (1,050 miles), roughly the span between London and Warsaw. Using its new arsenal of unmanned vehicles, Ukraine is building a nine-mile wide kill zone along the front line, crippling Russian logistics and slowing their advance. It is one of the reasons why Vladimir Putin 's assault troops have recently stalled in eastern Ukraine. It is a glimpse of future warfare. The growing robot army operates on the ground, in the sea and air, is able to strike, mine, evacuate, supply and even be used as a simple repeater to extend other machines' range. Units like the 13th Brigade of the National Guard have carried out drone-only assaults on the northern border with Russia. Money, money, money Kyiv's second great dilemma is how to keep funding its war effort. In 2024, around 30 per cent of Ukraine's defence production was funded by the United States, another 30 per cent by Europe, and the remainder by Ukraine itself, according to Mr Zelensky. With the White House proving increasingly unpredictable, Kyiv and its allies need to step up. Brussels is prioritising the search for Patriot launchers and missiles. Yet, the Trump administration is obstructing military purchases, an EU official told The Telegraph. The alternatives are French and Italian systems that need better radar to protect cities and critical infrastructure from Russian attacks. But air defences alone will not be enough to win the war. For the first time since the full-scale invasion began, Ukraine is facing a situation of overfunding – with more money available than real opportunities to buy. Allied countries decided to solve the problem through the 'Danish model': directly financing Ukraine's domestic defence production. One of the latest announcements came in early April, when £850 million from the profits of frozen Russian assets was earmarked to keep Ukraine's defence sector running. Cheaper, faster and free of intermediaries, the model allows Kyiv to scale up domestic production at a speed no Western supplier could match. And the impact is already being felt. At least 18 of the 154 Bohdana howitzers produced last year were funded by Copenhagen under this scheme. Recent data suggest Kyiv is now producing 36 a month, three times more. Eighty-five per cent of their components are already manufactured in Ukraine. The third pillar of Ukraine's strategy is to bring foreign defence firms directly into the country, turning the battlefield into a workshop. Britain's BAE Systems is already repairing armoured vehicles and howitzers on the ground. Germany's Rheinmetall, which produces globally more 155mm shells than the entire United States, also plans to open new facilities in Ukraine to maintain Leopard tanks and German artillery systems. Andrii Koropatva, the chief executive of Ancestor, a defence start-up developing swarm drone software, said: 'If you're not in Ukraine, you don't exist.' Similar deals are being signed almost weekly in Kyiv. Building the arsenal of the free world Yet these steps often slip beneath the radar, overshadowed by Donald Trump 's moves. They are part of a coherent strategy Ukraine has been building since 2023: to become 'the arsenal of the free world'. But critical vulnerabilities remain. The lack of US aid would hit Ukraine hardest in two key areas: intelligence sharing and air defence. 'There is no Ukrainian substitute for either. Europe cannot fully compensate, but it could take the risk of using up more of its stocks,' says Mr Bielieskov.
Yahoo
19-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Zelensky: Russia is already breaching ‘Easter truce'
Credit: Kremlin Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Moscow of failing to uphold an 'Easter truce' announced by Vladimir Putin. Ukraine's president said his forces would abide by the ceasefire if the Kremlin did the same, but said Russian artillery fire had not stopped and its attempt to seize territory continued. 'Russian assault operations continue on several front-line sectors, and Russian artillery fire has not subsided,' Mr Zelensky wrote on social media an hour and a half after the truce was meant to begin. 'Therefore, there is no trust in words coming from Moscow.' The temporary ceasefire, Putin said in a televised meeting with his commander-in-chief, would last from 6pm Moscow time (4pm BST) yesterday until midnight (10pm BST) tonight. But Ukrainian politicians and soldiers said Russia's president was not to be trusted, with Mr Zelensky saying that shelling had continued past the 6pm start time. 'If a complete ceasefire truly takes hold, Ukraine proposes extending it beyond the Easter day of April 20,' Mr Zelensky said. 'If Russia is now suddenly ready to truly engage in a format of full and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act accordingly – mirroring Russia's actions,' he added. Putin's proposal was seen by critics as a naked attempt to curry favour with Donald Trump, the US president, who threatened on Friday to walk out of peace talks unless a ceasefire agreement was reached soon. Mr Zelensky had earlier labelled the proposed truce as nothing more than Putin trying to 'play with human lives'. Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine's foreign minister, said Ukraine had endured a 'long history' of Putin's deceptions and that the dictator's words 'cannot be trusted'. He added that Kyiv stood by its original agreement with the US in March to abide by a 30-day cease fire. 'Unfortunately, we have had a long history of his statements not matching his actions,' Mr Sybiha said. 'We know his words cannot be trusted and we will look at actions, not words. Russia can agree at any time to the proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, which has been on the table since March.' A senior Ukrainian military officer reportedly received orders to stop firing on Russian positions minutes after the truce was due to start, suggesting that Kyiv had given the order to observe it. Captain Oleksandr Shyrshyn, battalion commander in the 47th Mechanized Brigade, told The Sunday Telegraph that Ukraine had 'encountered similar situations in the past when Russia made statements about a truce or a ceasefire'. Russians 'consistently disregarded the statements [and tried] to blame us. I don't trust Russians, and I believe they will fabricate scenarios', he added. Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies, said he saw the Russian president's proposal as 'classic Putin who wants to manipulate Donald Trump's perception and drive a wedge between Ukraine and the US'. 'Ukraine should remind everyone about the comprehensive, unconditional ceasefire that Russia rejected,' he added. Yesterday also saw 277 Ukrainian soldiers being returned from captivity in the largest exchange of PoWs in the conflict's history. Footage showed hundreds of the former prisoners hugging one another with the blue and yellow flag draped over their shoulders. Russia's Ministry of Defence said 246 of its service members were returned from territory controlled by Kyiv, and that 'as a gesture of goodwill' 31 wounded Ukrainian PoWs were transferred in exchange for 15 wounded Russian soldiers. The Ministry said its troops had been instructed about the ceasefire and would adhere to it, provided it was 'mutually respected' by Ukraine. Putin told Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of Russia's General Staff, during the televised address to have his forces ready to 'repel possible violations of the truce'. Russia on Friday had abandoned a moratorium on striking Ukrainian energy targets after each side accused the other of breaking a supposed deal without any formal agreement in place. The latest truce proposal will show 'how sincere is the Kyiv's regime's readiness, its desire and ability to observe agreements and participate in a process of peace talks,' Putin said. Previous attempts at holding ceasefires for Easter in April 2022 and Orthodox Christmas in Jan 2023 collapsed after both sides failed to agree on them. The proposal comes after months of Mr Trump pushing both Moscow and Kyiv to agree to a truce. He has so far failed to extract any major concessions from the Kremlin. Richard Kemp, a former British Army officer, said the truce would allow Putin to falsely paint Mr Zelensky to Mr Trump as the aggressor if the fighting continued. He said: 'He is likely attempting to seize the narrative to appease Trump and allow him to declare some kind of negotiating victory. 'The Kremlin's emphasis on bracing for Ukrainian 'provocations' indicates his intent to seize on or manufacture any such incidents to proclaim that Zelensky is not serious about peace and parry the ball back into Kyiv's court, so inciting further demands on Ukraine from the White House,' he added. Only a few kilometres from the front lines in the east, Ukrainian soldiers shared their leader's distrust of the proposed ceasefire. Dmitry, a 40-year-old soldier, said: 'I think this man [Putin] is evil, a murderer, but he can do it. He might do it to give some hope or to show his humanity. But either way, of course, we don't trust. These 30 hours will lead to nothing. The killings of our people, and theirs, will 100 per cent continue.' A spokesman for the Foreign Office said: 'Ukraine has committed to a full ceasefire. We urge Russia to do the same – not just a one-day pause. That will create space for talks on a just and lasting peace. We deplore the Kremlin's bombing of Ukrainian cities. Now is the moment for Putin to show he is serious about peace by ending his horrible invasion.' Cap Shyrshyn, of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, told The Sunday Telegraph: 'We have encountered similar situations in the past when Russia made statements about a truce or a ceasefire, yet they consistently disregarded the statements [and tried] to blame us. 'I don't trust Russians, and I believe they will fabricate scenarios, similar to the numerous instances where they have publicly expressed their desire to end the war, only to claim that Ukrainian officials fail to adhere to their agreements and threaten to respond by attacking civilians'. Thanks for following our live coverage of the war in Ukraine. We'll be back soon with more updates and analysis from the conflict. On the eve of Easter, President Volodymyr Zelensky has called Russia 'one of the biggest threats to Christian churches and believers'. Ukrainians will go to church on Sunday under the shadow of a ceasefire announced by Vladimir Putin which both sides have accused each other of violating. Easter falls on the same day this year for Orthodox and Western sects of Christianity, which is a rare occurrence. 'For millions of Ukrainians, Easter is one of the most important holidays. And millions of Ukrainians will go to church. Sadly, many will go to churches that are damaged or destroyed,' Mr Zelensky wrote in a post on X. Russia has destroyed over 600 religious sites in Ukraine throughout the three-year conflict and killed or tortured 67 priests, pastors and monks, Mr Zelensky said. Mr Zelensky said: 'Just like we're bringing back priests and pastors from Russian captivity, just like we're doing everything to protect Ukrainian towns and villages and the lives of people there – we are also bringing back the chance to believe, to believe that evil and destruction will not win.' The Ukrainian president in a further update said that 'fighting continues' in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Mr Zelensky, citing a report from his commander-in-chief, suggests that 'Easter statements by Putin did not extend to this territory'. 'Russian artillery can still be heard in certain directions of the front, regardless of the Russian leader's promise of silence,' he said but added that it 'has become quieter' in some areas. He said a proposal for a 30-day full and unconditional ceasefire 'remains on the table' and that Ukraine's actions are 'symmetrical' to Russia's. Residents of Moscow had a bleak outlook on the chances of peace after Putin's announcement of an Easter ceasefire. In the south of the Russian capital, people said it was unlikely the pause in fighting would provide a breakthrough that could end the three-year conflict because Ukraine 'could not be trusted'. 'The Easter truce will lead to nothing, because Ukraine will not honour these agreements,' said Svetlana, 61, who did not give her surname. Another resident, Maria Goranina, 85, told AFP that Ukraine will 'regroup after this truce and come at us again'. This is despite testimony by a Ukrainian soldier that Russia has already violated its own ceasefire with constant drone attacks and shelling. Critics of the invasion face harsh punishment in Russia under its censorship rules instituted shortly after the outbreak of war, with many people sentenced to lengthy prison terms. Svetlana also questioned Putin's decision to halt fighting. 'Three years have gone by, so many maimed, disabled, dead. And we've gone through some part of Ukraine, and that's it?' she said. 'I don't understand at all then, what it's all for.' Other residents were more hawkish and backed a more aggressive campaign over the ceasefire. 'I do not believe in Ukraine. There will be no such truce, there will be shelling and so on,' Yevgeny Pavlov, 58, told AFP. 'There is no need to give a respite. If we press, it means we should press to the end.' Ukraine said it would reciprocate any 'genuine' ceasefire efforts from Russia, but was wary of Putin's announcement of an Easter pause. Putin has not offered details as to how the 'humanitarian' ceasefire will be enforced and if it would only cover airstrikes or also ground battles. Russia said the ceasefire was supposed to begin at 6pm Moscow time on Saturday and would end at midnight after Easter Sunday, despite accusations from Ukraine that Russia has already violated its own agreement. Whether the ceasefire is upheld will 'reveal Russia's true intentions', President Volodymyr Zelensky said, proposing an extension of the truce beyond Easter. 'If a full ceasefire truly takes hold, Ukraine proposes extending it beyond Easter Day on April 20,' Mr Zelensky said in a post on Telegram. 'That will reveal Russia's true intentions, as 30 hours are enough for headlines, but not for genuine confidence-building measures.' Russia is 'constantly launching drones' and shelling despite Putin's announcement of an Easter ceasefire, a Ukrainian soldier told The Telegraph. Maksym, a drone pilot fighting between Kharkiv and Russia's Belgorod region, said: 'At the moment, they are constantly launching drones, not to mention shelling.' The truce is not sustainable or 'realistic – at least not for now', Maksym said, because Russia has violated other similar agreements. 'These things aren't arranged so quickly or easily. Besides, they've already shown they don't stick to such agreements,' he said. 'It is not realistic to stop hostilities at one moment.' Ukrainian soldiers released from captivity were shown reuniting with their families in new footage posted by President Volodymyr Zelensky. The soldiers, many of them draped in Ukrainian flags, hugged or called their family members as they wiped tears from their eyes. 'Today. Our people are home,' Mr Zelensky wrote on X. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 277 Ukrainian prisoners of war have been released. 'Our people are home – one of the best pieces of news that can be. Another 277 warriors have returned home from Russian captivity,' Mr Zelensky wrote in a post on X. 'I thank everyone who made this return of our people possible.' The release was part of the largest prisoner exchange in the three-year conflict, with over 500 troops on both sides involved. Soldiers who fought in Mariupol are among those who have been freed, along with troops who were captured in Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk. The United Arab Emirates mediated to secure the release of the soldiers, Mr Zelensky said. A total of 4,552 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been brought back from Russian captivity since Putin's invasion began in Feb 2022. President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged that Ukraine would abide by the ceasefire and suggested the truce be extended. 'If Russia is now suddenly ready to truly engage in a format of full and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act accordingly - mirroring Russia's actions,' he wrote on X. But at the same time, he said that Russia was continuing military action on several frontline sectors. Oleksandr Prokudin, governor of Ukraine's southern Kherson region, said there had been eight Russian drone attacks, setting fire to a high-rise block as well as hitting two villages. Air-raid sirens sounded in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Saturday evening, despite the start of Putin's 'Easter truce'. An alert message told Kyiv residents to proceed to shelters. AFP journalists heard sirens sound shortly before 10:00pm (local time) as the air force warned of a 'missile threat' in the surrounding Kyiv region. Captain Oleksandr Shyrshyn, battalion commander in the 47th Mechanized Brigade, says he does not trust Russia's 'Easter truce'. 'We have encountered similar situations in the past ... they consistently disregarded the statements made by them, trying to blame us. 'I don't trust Russians, and I believe they will fabricate scenarios ... where they have publicly expressed their desire to end the war, only to have Ukrainian officials fail to adhere to their agreements and threaten to respond by attacking civilians'. Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies said: 'I think it's a classic Putin who wants to manipulate Donald Trump perception and drive a wedge between UA and US making Trump think that's RU open to dialogue while Ukraine shall be squeezed by US to make concessions. 'Ukraine shall remind about comprehensive unconditional ceasefire in all domains of war Russia rejected.' Andriy Kovalenko, an official on Ukraine's national security and defence council, has claimed Russia is continuing its attacks. 'The Russians keep firing on all fronts — just like before,' he wrote on X. 'The heaviest shelling is in the East. So much for Putin's so-called 'ceasefire'. He never meant to keep it.' Vladimir Putin's announcement of an Easter ceasefire was greeted sceptically by Ukrainian soldiers. They did not trust the Russian president to keep his word and were doubtful that a pause in the fighting would lead to a prolonged end to the hostilities. 'Of course there's distrust,' said 40-year-old soldier, Dmitry, told AFP in the city of Kramatorsk, around 20 kilometres from the front in the eastern Donetsk region. 'I think this man (Putin) is evil, a murderer, but he can do it. He might do it to give some hope or to show his humanity. But either way, of course, we don't trust. These 30 hours will lead to nothing.' A Kyiv-based MP says air raid sirens sounded in the Ukrainian capital in the moments after Vladimir Putin announced an Easter truce. 'Drones were entering Kyiv,' Lisa Yasko said before suggesting that the city witnessed a 'one hour' attack. 'A ceasefire for one day, even if it happens, is like a joke,' she told the BBC. Ms Yasko suggested that the surprise announcement could be a manoeuvre by the Russian president to appease the United States. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that Kyiv had in March 'agreed unconditionally to the U.S. proposal of a full interim ceasefire for 30 days,' which Russia rejected. 'Putin has now made statements about his alleged readiness for a ceasefire. 30 hours instead of 30 days,' Mr Sybiha continued, writing on X. Unfortunately, we have had a long history of his statements not matching his actions. Putin's ceasefire announcement came after US President Donald Trump on Friday said negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are 'coming to a head' and insisted that neither side is 'playing' him in his push to end the grinding three-year war. Trump spoke shortly after Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the U.S. may 'move on' from trying to secure a Russia-Ukraine peace deal if there is no progress in the coming days, after months of efforts have failed to bring an end to the fighting. Previous attempts at holding ceasefires for Easter in April 2022 and Orthodox Christmas in January 2023 were not implemented after both sides failed to agree on them. Ukraine last month agreed to Trump's proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, only for Putin to reject it. Putin's administration has carried out lightning raids across Russia for several weeks in an 'overtly aggressive' attempt to enlist more fledgling recruits for the war in Ukraine. During an evening workout at Spirit Fitness in south-east Moscow, gym-goers were suddenly told to drop to the floor. According to witnesses, police divide those at the gym into citizens and non-citizens. Russians are taken to enlistment offices, where their military records are checked. Read more here from Kieran Kelly The Telegraph's Associate Defence Editor Dom Nicholls gives his analysis below. He's made an announcement about military activity that may or may not happen, hoping to curry favour with Trump and try and make make Ukraine look bad to Trump if they continue fighting. Ukraine agreed to Trump's 30-day unconditional ceasefire over a month ago, Russia did not, strangely without consequences. Putin shouldn't get any applause now for this stunt. Russia and Ukraine on Saturday held a large prisoner of war exchange, with each side handing back more than 240 prisoners, the Russian defence ministry said. 'On April 19... 246 Russian soldiers were returned from territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. In return 246 Ukrainian prisoners of war were handed over. 'Also as a good will gesture, 31 wounded prisoners of war were handed over in exchange for 15 wounded Russian prisoners of war needing urgent medical help,' the ministry said in a statement on social media.' The Russian Ministry of Defence has released a statement confirming that Russia will stop all military operations from 18:00 Moscow time (16:00 BST) today until midnight on 21 April (22:00 BST). The ministry says all military actions have been ordered to stop, adding that the decision was 'guided by humanitarian considerations'. They say they expect the Ukrainian side to do the same. 'At the same time, our troops must be ready to repel possible violations of the truce and provocations from the enemy, any of its aggressive actions,' the ministry says in a statement that has been translated. Ukraine's air force reported that Russia fired 87 exploding drones and decoys in the latest wave of attacks overnight into Saturday. Anti-air measures managed to intercept 33 of them. Another 36 were lost, likely having been electronically jammed. Russian attacks damaged farms in the Odesa region and sparked fires in the Sumy region overnight, Ukraine's State Emergency Service said Saturday. Fires were contained, and no casualties were reported. Russia has pushed Ukrainian forces from one of their last remaining footholds in Russia's Kursk region, officials said Saturday. According to Russia's Defence Ministry, its forces took control of the village of Oleshnya, on the border with Ukraine. 'Units of the 'North' military group have liberated the village of Oleshnya in the Kursk region during active offensive operations,' the ministry said in a statement. There was was no immediate response from Ukrainian officials. According to Russian state news agency TASS, Russia is still fighting to push Ukrainian forces out of the village of Gornal, some seven miles (11 kilometers) south of Oleshnya. 'The Russian military has yet to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Gornal ... in order to completely liberate the Kursk region. Fierce fighting is underway in the settlement,' the agency reported, citing Russia security agencies. Vladimir Putin has ordered his troops to stand ready for any 'violations of the truce' by Ukrainian forces. He said: 'With humanitarian considerations, today from 6pm, from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares the Easter truce. 'I order to stop all hostilities during this period. We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow our example. 'At the same time our troops must be ready to reflect possible violations of the truce and provocations by the enemy in any of its aggressive actions. 'We know that the Kyiv regime has violated the agreement not to strike at the energy infrastructure more than a hundred times, as you reported to me. 'Therefore, I ask you to be extremely attentive and focused to be ready for an immediate response in full.' 'Our decision on the Easter truce will show how sincere is the readiness of the Kyiv regime and its desire and ability to comply with the agreements, to participate int eh peace talks aimed at eliminating the primary cause of the Ukrainian crisis.' Vladimir Putin, speaking to Russian chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, said: 'Today from 1800 (1500 GMT) to midnight Sunday (2100 GMT Sunday), the Russian side announces an Easter truce.' 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NBC News
14-03-2025
- Politics
- NBC News
Why the Kremlin's ‘cautiously optimistic' response to Trump's Ukraine ceasefire hides Putin's dilemma
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday there were 'certainly reasons to be cautiously optimistic' about the prospect of peace in Ukraine after President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow. Peskov's comments echoed those of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said Thursday that he in theory accepted the ceasefire proposed by the United States and Ukraine — but only on terms tantamount to a victory over Ukraine. It was an emphatic 'yes, but.' 'We agree with the proposals to stop the hostilities,' Putin said in a speech Thursday. But only if it leads 'to long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of this crisis.' That term — 'root causes' — is a reference to long-held Russian grievances about what it sees as NATO's eastward expansion. Western officials and analysts reject this, saying Putin wants to subjugate Ukraine, drawing it into Russia's sphere of influence and away from its European tilt. Trump himself called Putin's remark 'a promising statement,' but many officials and experts across Ukraine and Europe are far less impressed. But, despite flirting with the Trump administration there is little evidence Putin has shifted from his core war goals: cementing his landgrabs in Ukraine and stopping it ever joining NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Putin's words 'manipulative' during his nightly address Thursday. "Putin often does this — he does not say 'no' directly, but he does it in such a way that practically everything only delays it and makes normal decisions impossible.' He added, 'Putin, of course, is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war, that he wants to kill Ukrainians.' Other observers believe Putin is in a tight spot and that his evasive response was an attempt to balance two competing realities. First, the Kremlin has no reason to accept a truce unless it delivers him a favorable outcome; and second, he wants to achieve a settlement with the White House while it is led by a president amenable to Moscow, said Jonathan Eyal, a director at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London. 'It's not in Putin's interest to get a ceasefire now," Eyal said Friday. "However, he cannot afford to annoy the American president, and expose and humiliate him with an outright rejection.' The deal on offer to Putin is not going to improve, Eyal said, adding that Putin has 'got an amazing opportunity to return to the global stage and [escape] from his isolation — with the help of the United States,' he added. So 'he's got to try to grab this deal without making too many concessions on Ukraine, and that's his dilemma.' Officials in Kyiv will be hoping to use Putin's 'evasive' response to 'help convince their American colleagues that the Kremlin dictator is not genuinely interested in ending the war,' wrote Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a Ukrainian think tank. While Putin may entertain a truce with terms favorable to Moscow, he will not accept an independent Ukrainian state on Russia's border, Bielieskov wrote for the Atlantic Council. 'This does not mean that current U.S.-led peace efforts are entirely futile, but it is vital to recognize that freezing the conflict along the current front lines will not be enough to end the war.'
