Latest news with #NationalInstituteforStrategicStudies
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
How Trump and trade wars pushed Russia and Ukraine into the cold
In heady times — and with trade wars dominating the news agenda — it's easy to forget that Russia and Ukraine's soldiers continue to fight for every inch of frontline territory in Ukraine. Conflict in Gaza, ongoing economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe and the shifting geopolitical landscape with strengthening, and opposing, 'axes of power' are also at the fore of global policymakers' minds, pushing more than three-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine down the agenda. It seems increasingly that both Russia and Ukraine are being left out in the cold, with even this week's talks in Istanbul, involving negotiating teams from both sides, barely getting a mention in the media. As things stand, there's an uneasy air when it comes to the direction of the war and prospects for peace. Trump appeared to lose his patience when he stated on July 14 that Ukraine could receive more U.S.-made weapons — as long as NATO allies paid for them — and gave Russia a 50-day deadline to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. If it did not, he said, Russia would face "very severe" sanctions and "secondary" tariffs of up to 100%. Those could hit Russia hard, as well as its remaining trading partners, including India and China, who buy Russian oil and gas, among other commodities. As things stand, Russia has until Sept 2 to show it's serious about a ceasefire and peace plan — on which little progress has been made, despite some agreements over prisoner swaps. Analysts are skeptical that the threat of more sanctions will move Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table in good faith, let alone talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. There is a stretch between Trump's demand for a peace deal and any further sanctions, Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, said. "The Kremlin is generally banking on the fact that the United States under Trump is incapable of a systematic policy of supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia," Bielieskov told NBC News earlier in July. "Serious secondary sanctions require a willingness to quarrel with China and India, which buy raw materials from Russia," he noted. "Similarly, when it comes to weapons, the speed and volume of supplies here and now matter. Therefore, there are many known unknowns. And I think Russia may believe that the U.S. will not dare to impose secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners," he added. Ukraine, at the mercy of U.S. and European largesse when it comes to weapons supplies, has shown more willingness to negotiate in recent months, calling, along with Trump, for a ceasefire with Russia that has gone unanswered. It has also shown a willingness to compromise even when it comes to ceding Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to Moscow if it was granted something of a 'holy grail' for the country: NATO membership. But there has been little sign that Russia, making small but incremental gains on the battlefield due to its sheer force of conscripted manpower and intense drone warfare, would be willing to accept Western-pledged security guarantees for Ukraine, in any form. Making matters worse for Kyiv is growing unrest at a domestic level, with misgivings over ongoing martial law, the lack of elections and the wartime leadership of Zelenskyy. Protests erupted in Kyiv last week amid a backlash against government moves to limit the independence of two anti-corruption agencies. Top EU politicians expressed consternation at the move to outlet Politico, saying it showed a lack of commitment to pursuing European democratic values. Combatting what has been endemic corruption in Ukraine is seen as a prerequisite for EU membership, which Kyiv covets. A government reshuffle in mid-July also fueled accusations that Zelenskyy was concentrating power among loyalists, which could also ignite concerns among Ukraine's international backers and benefactors. Ukraine is entering "a critical phase of internal consolidation amid growing external uncertainty," according to Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the founder of political analysis firm, R. Politik. "The latest battlefield developments coincide with a new American posture: Donald Trump has opted for tactical delay over decisive engagement, stepping back operationally while transferring financial and political responsibilities to Europe," she said in emailed comments this week. "Kyiv, meanwhile, is using this interlude to recalibrate internally. The recent government reshuffle ... underscores the Zelenskyy administration's intent to reinforce political control and preserve cohesion in the face of mounting pessimism, institutional inertia, and an intensifying labour crisis," she added. Despite increasing Western unease regarding Ukraine's domestic trajectory, Stanovaya noted, "international support is becoming more transactional, geared primarily towards sustaining the front line rather than advancing democratic reform."
The Star
07-07-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Facing battlefield setbacks, Ukraine withdraws from mine ban treaty
KYIV (Reuters) -Oleksiy, a 26-year-old Ukrainian soldier, is six months into a difficult recovery after losing most of his left leg to an anti-personnel mine. Despite his injuries, he says Ukraine is right to withdraw from a treaty banning such weapons. Facing challenges in securing new U.S. supplies of artillery and munitions, or to recruit enough new soldiers to hold frontline positions, Kyiv announced its withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on June 29. Military analysts and a Ukrainian unit commander said that doing so could help slow the Russian advances Kyiv is struggling to contain over three years after Moscow's full-scale invasion. "Russia does not adhere to any conventions - so why should we?" Oleksiy, who gave only his first name in line with Ukrainian military requirements, said at a rehabilitation centre for wounded service personnel in Kyiv. "We need to do this, because if we mine (our land) then there is then a chance that we won't give it up." Russia is not a party to the treaty, and military analysts, rights groups and Ukrainian soldiers say it has been using anti-personnel mines widely. Russia's Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has not confirmed it uses anti-personnel mines in Ukraine. Russian officials say Ukraine has already used such devices in the war. The United States approved the provision of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine in November, Reuters has previously reported. At the time, U.S. officials said Ukraine was expected to use the U.S. mines on its own territory although it committed to not using them in areas populated with civilians. Russia holds about a fifth of Ukraine including Crimea, which it seized in 2014. Ukraine's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment on whether it already deploys such munitions, their battlefield usefulness and criticism of the move. Ukraine widely uses anti-vehicle mines not covered by the treaty. About a quarter of Ukraine is contaminated by mines or unexploded ordnance, the Defence Ministry's demining unit says. Frontline areas and pockets of the Kursk region just inside Russia are thickly contaminated with the small devices which explode when triggered by contact, vibration or tripwires. Three military analysts said anti-personnel mines were a useful tool to counter Russia's emerging tactic of sending small assault squads, some riding on motorbikes, that are not stopped by other frontline fortifications. "When our side does not have much infantry on the front lines, creating a system of obstacles with these types of mines strengthens the defence - so that we do not rely solely on UAVs or artillery," said Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles, better known as drones. A bomb squad company commander from Ukraine's59thbrigade operating near the eastern city of Pokrovsk said a large rotary drone could be used to deploy up to 70 anti-personnel mines at a time. "They can effectively mine distant areas. And the enemy will take significant losses without even reachingourpositions," said the commander, who uses the call-sign Voron. He did not say whether Ukraine was already deploying anti-personnel mines. "COPYING RUSSIA" Anti-mine campaigners condemned Ukraine's decision to leave the Ottawa Convention, following the example of five other European nations bordering Russia. The move opens the way to Ukraine increasing the deployment of a munition that can maim civilians, including children, long after conflict subsides. Ukraine said in July 2024 that nearly 300 Ukrainian civilians had been killed and over 1,000 others wounded by Russian mines. Neither country releases casualty figures for its own soldiers. Tamar Gabelnick, director of the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, told Reuters that Kyiv's decision would put civilians at risk for years. "Why would Ukraine want to copy the abusive, horrible military tactics of their enemy? Why would they want to stoop down to that level?", she said. About 85% of mine deaths worldwide are civilian, she said. After signing a decree to quit the treaty, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that often the function performed by anti-personnel mines could not be performed by any other weapon. The decision to exit the treaty, which prohibits anti-personnel mines but not other types such as anti-vehicle mines, needs parliament's approval but is likely to be waved through. Lawmaker Fedir Venislavskiy said the armed forces would use the munitions responsibly and that Ukraine has regulations on use of anti-vehicle mines, including mapping their locations. "The maps of these minefields will allow them to be cleared quite quickly after hostilities end," he said. Ukraine has not said whether it plans to quickly deploy more mines. Venislavskiy said it would now be able to establish its own production. Ukraine destroyed some of its Soviet-era anti-personnel mine stocks after ratifying the convention in 2005 but Venislavskiy said it still has enough to cause Russia problems. Oleksiy set off a mine while defending a patch of forest in territory Ukraine held in Russia's Kursk region at the time. He did not say who set the mine. "I fell and saw that my leg was still there but twisted... it became so painful, I started to shout for help," he said. Oleksiy dragged himself to his comrades, he said, possibly saving their lives. His leg was later amputated but he said the potential reward of mines stopping Russian advances was worth the risks involved in deploying them. "We can demine it later - it's a long process, it can drag on for many years, but it's not giving up your land," he said. (Reporting by Max Hunder and Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey; Additional reporting by Taras Garanich and Alina Smutko, Editing by Frank Jack Daniel and Timothy Heritage)
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
As peace efforts falter, Russia eyes major summer push in Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian military officials and defense analysts warn that Russia is preparing for a major offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast this summer, aiming to seize the territory it has failed to fully control since 2022. Some analysts interviewed by the Washington Post say the offensive has already begun, coinciding with stalled U.S.-brokered peace efforts and Moscow's rejection of repeated Western ceasefire calls. U.S. experts believe President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that a military victory is still possible, although continued sanctions and battlefield losses have strained Russia's capabilities. Putin has long prioritized control over the entire Donetsk region, especially after failing to capture Kyiv early in the war. In September 2022, he declared Donetsk and three other partially occupied Ukrainian oblasts as part of the Russian Federation. While Russia claims to seek peace, it insists that talks must address what it calls the "root causes" of the war. After direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16, both sides agreed to draft a memorandum outlining principles for a future settlement. Read also: Russia pushes forward in Donetsk Oblast, threatening Ukrainian pocket around Toretsk Analysts say that while the main offensive will focus on Donetsk—particularly the towns of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka—Russia is also preparing smaller operations in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. Mykola Bielieskov of Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies told the Washington Post that Kostiantynivka remains a key target as it is a "promising" prospect for the Russian forces at present, he said, given Russia's ability to attack it from three directions. Despite past predictions that these towns would fall by late 2023, Ukrainian forces have continued to hold them through significant effort. Ukraine, however, remains under strain due to recruitment shortfalls and limited firepower, while Russia has exceeded its military recruitment goals. Still, with around 125,000 troops on the Sumy and Kharkiv borders, Russia lacks the manpower for full-scale offensives in both regions, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. Instead, Russia may attempt to seize small territories to create "buffer zones," as described by Russian officials. Russian forces have already taken four villages in northeastern Sumy Oblast and aim to pressure regional centers like Sumy city. Ukraine continues to focus on defense, aiming to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces rather than reclaim territory. This strategy hinges on sustained foreign weapons supplies, especially from the U.S., which are not guaranteed. Europe has signaled increased support, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons. Russia has seized on this move as proof that Europe opposes peace. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism of Russian airstrikes by saying Trump's frustration is directed at European leaders for allegedly undermining his peace efforts. Read also: Bracing for more Russian attacks, an anxious Ukraine waits for Trump to do… something We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
‘There we go again' — For war-weary Europe, Trump-Putin call yet another signal to ‘wake up'
After a two-hour call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia reiterated its refusal for a full ceasefire in the war in Ukraine while the U.S. once again failed to respond with any significant pressure. For observers across Europe, watching the way the negotiations have been unfolding was an unpleasant reminder that the U.S. can no longer be relied on as a partner — but it was not a surprising revelation. "Chewing the same gum which has lost its taste is not the best experience," Mykola Bielieskov, Research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Kyiv Independent. Frederic Petit, a French National Assembly deputy, was similarly underwhelmed by the information shared about the call. "It gives nothing, because of all the contradicting signals that are coming from the Kremlin and also a few of them are coming from the Trump administration," he told the Kyiv Independent. "For example, about the business deal that (they) could do together — does it mean, Mr. President, that you will shift the sanctions or not?" The phone call, which took place on May 19 after a conversation between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky, was followed by another call between Trump and other European leaders, including the Ukrainian president. According to Zelensky, during his phone call with Trump, he advocated for a ceasefire, for the opportunity to express views on a potential memorandum that will be negotiated between the U.S. and Russia, and for decisions about Ukraine not to be made without his country's inclusion. But Russia did not back down from its maximalist demands during the call, according to statements from officials. It has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine hand over more territory than Russia currently controls — a non-starter for Ukraine and a condition that has been a roadblock in negotiations. Throughout the peace process that began when Trump took office in January, Trump has repeatedly put heavy pressure on Ukraine to make concessions to Russia, while refusing to apply similar tactics to Russia. As information about the discussions reached experts across Europe, it was yet another of many reminders since Trump's election that Europe will need to be more self-reliant. "Russia is prepared for a prolonged war and is currently not thinking about peace," Eitvydas Bajarunas, ambassador at Lithuania's Foreign Ministry and visiting fellow at the Center for Europe Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent. "Clearly, Russia would prefer a short pause to catch its breath, and ideally, to see some sanctions lifted. At the same time, Putin doesn't want to discourage Trump, so he will continue to respond positively to Trump's requests to consider ending hostilities — though only by imitating negotiations." Bajarunas also noted that negotiations for peace in Ukraine have fallen in priority for Washington. Having failed to deliver on a campaign promise to end the war within 100 days, Trump again threatened on May 19 to abandon efforts to end the war if progress was not made towards a peace deal. "Europe can do more, but is choosing to hope for either Putin or Trump changing their minds." "In this context, I see only one solution. Europe must take responsibility and lead the way — impose sanctions on Russia, supply weapons to Ukraine, and offer a concrete peace plan," Bajarunas said. "Time to wake up. It's now or never," he added. The subsequent phone call with European leaders was one positive sign, said Yohann Michel, a senior research fellow at the defense research institute IESD in Lyon. "This time, he's calling the Europeans and we might actually have the Europeans at the table," Michel said. "Instead of having bilateral or trilateral talks somewhere where we are out of the room and out of the situation, we might actually be able to participate directly." Yet Michel also added that Trump's stance has shifted frequently and previous positive signals have been sometimes short-lived. "My first reaction was to think, okay, there we go again. Trump had a different conversation with someone else. Therefore, he will now completely change his representation and understanding of the issue." Europe has repeatedly called for ramped-up support to Ukraine as the new U.S. administration has signaled its unwillingness to continue providing aid to Kyiv. "While discussions about European-led peacekeeping or security assistance are still in early stages — and would be complicated without U.S. backing — the UK and its allies are beginning to think seriously about what a more self-reliant European response might look like," said Ievgeniia Kopytsia, a legal expert and visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford. The day after Trump and Putin spoke, the EU approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, including measures against Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, which the country uses to break embargoes and sustain its economy. "More sanctions on Russia are in the works," top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas said on X, announcing the package. But for many, Europe's measures fall short of the moment. "Trump is constantly surprising everyone by how he manages to help Putin justify continuing his aggression. And everyone (Ukrainians and Europeans) is playing their part in this charade," Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister, told the Kyiv Independent. "Europe can do more, but is choosing to hope for either Putin or Trump to change their minds." One step Europe could take would be to quickly unfreeze Russian assets that have been seized and transfer the money to Ukraine, Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute, told the Kyiv Independent. "They can ramp up their production of drones. That's not the only thing they need, of course. They need training. Europeans could come in and train again, especially if more air defense is provided." "But there is not a sufficient sense of urgency," she said. "It's bad enough that the United States doesn't understand that we're on war footing. But the fact that the Europeans don't understand that is really distressing." Dementiy Bilyi, a 56-year-old political scientist and local historian, has watched Europe's response from Kherson, a city which remained under Russian occupation for 256 days from February to November 2022 before it was liberated during the Kherson counteroffensive. Bilyi is trying to keep in touch with people on the Russian-occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, who keep him informed about the information space in the area, which the Kremlin dominates. "Many Russian Telegram channels are created in the occupied part of the Kherson region. They often try to spread the narrative that Russia will come back here," he said. "People are tired; they need support. They need to hear words of support from our European partners and allies. This helps them not to lose hope." Read also: 'Trump doesn't know how to deal with gangsters' — US lets Ukraine down, once again We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Telegraph
04-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
How Ukraine plans to survive when the US steps back
On a sunny afternoon near the eastern front, a Ukrainian artillery crew show off their stockpile for a D-30 howitzer. The ammunition is 152mm, Soviet-calibre, but the manufacturers are not. The shells are brand new. When US deliveries froze and the front lines wavered in winter 2024, Ukraine had already been producing, purchasing and sourcing weapons – sometimes on its own, sometimes with the backing of its allies – preparing a back-up plan for the day that vital American military aid stopped flowing. With the last US packages signed off by Joe Biden expected to expire before summer, that eventuality is on the horizon. Many see the long-delayed minerals deal signed this week between Kyiv and Washington as a potential route to unlock fresh US weapons. But the agreement offered no American security or aid guarantees. And although the Trump administration informed Congress of its intention to approve arms exports worth at least $50 million (£37 million) to Ukraine on Wednesday, Ukraine and its European allies know that American assistance will not last forever. Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Telegraph: 'I guess there's one thing people miss when discussing US blackmail over aid right now. 'In all plausible scenarios, assistance will eventually end – even if Ukraine accepts the US peace framework. So what would be the point of agreeing to such a deal if there would be no aid left?' If the American weapons don't start flowing again, Ukraine will face serious challenges. Exactly how severe remains the great unknown. It is a complex equation that Volodymyr Zelensky and his aides have been working to solve since 2023. Following its failed summer counter-offensive and Russia's push from Avdiivka, Kyiv made a decision: to bet on itself. It laid the first foundations of a strategy built for survival. Unlike its Western partners, Ukraine set its sights on the long game. A glimpse of future warfare 'The battlefield evolves every six months – that's what makes this war different from others,' says Oleksandr Yarmak, a sergeant in the Ukrainian army's unmanned systems forces. 'That speed of innovation gives us the edge over the enemy.' Simple and complex at the same time: the very same factors that make victory difficult also prevent defeat. The American guns and the shells remain vital, but no longer dictate the fight. Drones have taken much of their place. Last year, Ukraine produced more than two million FPVs and thousands more designed to strike high-value targets – including ammunition stockpiles and oil depots – at distances of up to 1,700km (1,050 miles), roughly the span between London and Warsaw. Using its new arsenal of unmanned vehicles, Ukraine is building a nine-mile wide kill zone along the front line, crippling Russian logistics and slowing their advance. It is one of the reasons why Vladimir Putin 's assault troops have recently stalled in eastern Ukraine. It is a glimpse of future warfare. The growing robot army operates on the ground, in the sea and air, is able to strike, mine, evacuate, supply and even be used as a simple repeater to extend other machines' range. Units like the 13th Brigade of the National Guard have carried out drone-only assaults on the northern border with Russia. Money, money, money Kyiv's second great dilemma is how to keep funding its war effort. In 2024, around 30 per cent of Ukraine's defence production was funded by the United States, another 30 per cent by Europe, and the remainder by Ukraine itself, according to Mr Zelensky. With the White House proving increasingly unpredictable, Kyiv and its allies need to step up. Brussels is prioritising the search for Patriot launchers and missiles. Yet, the Trump administration is obstructing military purchases, an EU official told The Telegraph. The alternatives are French and Italian systems that need better radar to protect cities and critical infrastructure from Russian attacks. But air defences alone will not be enough to win the war. For the first time since the full-scale invasion began, Ukraine is facing a situation of overfunding – with more money available than real opportunities to buy. Allied countries decided to solve the problem through the 'Danish model': directly financing Ukraine's domestic defence production. One of the latest announcements came in early April, when £850 million from the profits of frozen Russian assets was earmarked to keep Ukraine's defence sector running. Cheaper, faster and free of intermediaries, the model allows Kyiv to scale up domestic production at a speed no Western supplier could match. And the impact is already being felt. At least 18 of the 154 Bohdana howitzers produced last year were funded by Copenhagen under this scheme. Recent data suggest Kyiv is now producing 36 a month, three times more. Eighty-five per cent of their components are already manufactured in Ukraine. The third pillar of Ukraine's strategy is to bring foreign defence firms directly into the country, turning the battlefield into a workshop. Britain's BAE Systems is already repairing armoured vehicles and howitzers on the ground. Germany's Rheinmetall, which produces globally more 155mm shells than the entire United States, also plans to open new facilities in Ukraine to maintain Leopard tanks and German artillery systems. Andrii Koropatva, the chief executive of Ancestor, a defence start-up developing swarm drone software, said: 'If you're not in Ukraine, you don't exist.' Similar deals are being signed almost weekly in Kyiv. Building the arsenal of the free world Yet these steps often slip beneath the radar, overshadowed by Donald Trump 's moves. They are part of a coherent strategy Ukraine has been building since 2023: to become 'the arsenal of the free world'. But critical vulnerabilities remain. The lack of US aid would hit Ukraine hardest in two key areas: intelligence sharing and air defence. 'There is no Ukrainian substitute for either. Europe cannot fully compensate, but it could take the risk of using up more of its stocks,' says Mr Bielieskov.
