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Forbes
6 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
How Weather Impacts Operation And Dependence On Renewable Energy
As the demand for renewable energy increases, so do risks for weather impacts and grid stability. ... More Weather impact arbitrage is a strategy to reduce these risks. When 55 million people suddenly lost power in Spain and Portugal in late April, many instinctively assumed the outage must have been caused by the weather. It made sense. Extreme weather events can significantly disrupt renewable energy infrastructures – and the Iberian peninsula's grid is 80% powered by renewables. Turns out the weather wasn't the culprit this time. Conditions were pristine on April 28 – balmy temperatures, no precipitation – and the Iberian grid was back up and running by the next morning. In fact, some groups are saying the nice weather contributed to an overabundance of renewable energy causing line congestion and ultimately system instability. A month later, people are still debating the cause of the worst European outage in recent memory. A joint expert panel established by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity has launched an investigation into the root cause. Here in the U.S., solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower and other renewable sources are becoming important parts of more energy conversations. Taken all together, these sources accounted for about 90% of the U.S.'s new installed capacity in 2024, according to a report by the World Resources Institute. The same report notes that renewables make up 30% of the country's large-scale power generating capacity and supply nearly 25% of all electricity. Given renewables' prospects, operators are taking more interest in how weather will affect the energy sources' future. Renewables, of course, depend on weather to physically generate power. Their performance also depends heavily on operators' ability to protect energy sources from all kinds of weather. For example, hydroelectric plants are affected by intense droughts that reduce water availability or heavy rainfall can overwhelm systems. Heavy gusts of wind can damage wind turbine blades and put mechanical stress on turbine systems and severe weather make up 80% of solar farm insurance claims. Even small weather events can progressively reduce solar output by 1% annually according to a 2024 National Renewable Energy Laboratory on weather and solar system performance. But rather than viewing weather fluctuations solely as operational risks to be mitigated, sophisticated operators can use advanced weather intelligence to leverage weather impact arbitrage. Arbitrage in the traditional sense is a trading strategy where investors take advantage of price discrepancies for the same asset in different markets. Cross-regional energy trading exemplifies this approach, as operators with superior weather intelligence can anticipate production surges or deficits across different regions before they're reflected in market prices. My position for weather impact arbitrage involves capitalizing on discrepancies but in broader terms. It is leveraging energy assets and operations to capitalize on weather patterns across different geographies and timeframes. By understanding weather variations with greater precision, energy operators can make more informed profitable decisions about when to generate, store or consume energy, and optimize operations for time, financial or efficiency savings. Here are a few of many examples of how weather impact arbitrage would benefit the energy industry. Consider strategic maintenance scheduling that moves beyond simply avoiding severe weather to identifying periods when the revenue opportunity cost is lowest based on long-term weather pattern analysis. Or routine work that is delayed or rescheduled based on weather intelligence. For example, using wildfire forecasting to plan or revise work in an area with a high probability of ignition could help prevent catastrophic physical and financial outcomes. Energy scheduling using weather intelligence can optimize output. For example, through high-resolution forecasts of solar irradiance, operators can anticipate fluctuations in sunlight caused by cloud cover, storms, or atmospheric haze. With granular forecasting, they can protect assets during a severe weather event in a specific area of the field for the necessary time to maximize energy generation. This foresight allows them to better manage energy storage systems and optimize production. Excess renewable energy, such as wind and solar, can cause grid congestion. This is one of the causes considered for the Spain and Portugal outage. When this happens, transmission operators will enact dispatch down or curtailment measures. Dispatch down events can cause energy prices to plummet during extreme oversupply conditions. Grid operators must also pay the renewable energy provider a downward dispatch fee that can cost thousands of dollars per megawatt per hour. Energy operators who use a combination of seasonal forecasts, predictive and real-time forecasts have better insights and can strategically plan for dispatch down probabilities. Dynamic line rating for grid balancing in increasingly becoming a global strategy for grid stability. In the U.S. the upcoming regulation FERC 881 addresses the continuing influence of weather on transmission line capacity for better dynamic and responsive line capacity management. Current calculations without DLR are based on conservative estimates of worst-case weather conditions and do not adjust in real-time to actual weather conditions. Conversely, hot conditions limit the ability to dissipate heat, increasing the risk of overheating, sagging, and potential damage to the lines. Both scenarios affect market prices, grid stability and optimizing renewable integration. Battery storage operators can develop algorithms that charge and discharge based not just on price signals but on proprietary weather forecasts that predict price movements before they occur. Large energy consumers with flexible loads could time their consumption based on weather forecasts, reducing usage during weather-induced supply constraints and increasing it during weather-driven production surges. Weather Impact arbitrage depends on utilizing weather intelligence including hyperlocal weather forecasting capabilities with greater accuracy and longer lead times than traditional models. This also requires the integration of weather intelligence directly into existing systems with other data sources, such as pricing, asset locations, service areas and operations. Ensemble forecasts informed by advanced algorithms such as AI and machine learning further leverage weather arbitrage strategies. It is time to stop viewing the weather only as a risk. Weather impact arbitrage could fundamentally transform renewable energy economics by positioning weather intelligence not as a defensive tool but as a source of competitive advantage and value creation in an increasingly weather-dependent energy landscape.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
An uncertain time for solar, thanks to politics: Q&A with All Energy Solar CEO Michael Allen
President Donald Trump's budget request, released on May 2, 2025, proposes slashing $21 billion in unspent funds from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law for renewable energy, electric vehicle charging infrastructure and other efforts to cut climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions. Shown are solar panels and wind turbines. (Photo by Marga Buschbell-Steeger/Getty Images) If you live in Minnesota, you may have already had an inkling, but a quick glance at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's U.S. solar resource map confirms: Minnesota is among the least sunny states in the Lower 48. Yet Minnesota gets a surprising amount of its electricity from the sun. It's in the top 20 for installed solar capacity overall and boasts the country's fourth-largest community solar program, thanks in part to a trailblazing 2014 law allowing customers to purchase shares in the smallish arrays that now dot warehouse roofs and farmland across the state. More recently, residential solar has taken off in Minnesota as more utility customers — mostly but not exclusively in the Twin Cities metro — look to lessen their reliance on the electric grid. Few local enterprises have done more for those folks than St. Paul-based All Energy Solar, which helped kickstart the market in 2009 and now does business across the United States. Solar power was still a novelty for most Minnesotans back then, but not for All Energy Solar co-founder and CEO Michael Allen. Allen became fascinated with the technology in junior high school, wrote the business plan for his company-to-be in college at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and then spent several years in the 2000s learning the ropes as a California-based employee in BP's nascent solar division. (His brother and fellow All Energy Solar cofounder Brian Allen was one of the first employees of SolarCity, now a Tesla subsidiary.) Today, solar power is the world's fastest-growing source of electricity. Deployments of large lithium-ion batteries to store excess power are rising quickly too. All Energy Solar installs both for a customer base that Michael Allen says is around 70% residential and 30% commercial. But the U.S. solar industry also faces tremendous uncertainty thanks in part to stiff tariffs imposed by President Trump and instability around the future of generous federal tax incentives for clean energy equipment. SunPower, once one of the country's biggest solar installers, declared bankruptcy last summer; another, Sunnova, is in serious trouble. The Reformer spoke with Michael Allen last month about the state of the solar energy industry, the state and federal legislation he's watching closely this year, and his not-sales pitch to solar-curious customers. We actively say we don't have a sales pitch, to be clear. Most people come to us because they're interested in learning about solar. We listen to them and try to position ourselves as consultants who can help them solve their energy challenges. A lot of that is education, focused on the basics of how the technology works, how it helps customers produce their own energy and pay less for electricity, and getting past some of the myths and misconceptions. No, you don't need a giant battery to make it work. That said, it's still surprising when people ask us, 'Is this stuff for real?' Yes, solar energy is a multibillion-dollar industry. We're not doing it just for fun! The Minnesota Senate's energy omnibus bill has some provisions that could harm the industry. The proposal to do away with Xcel Energy's Solar*Rewards program, the primary funding mechanism for Xcel customers who want to go solar. There are also provisions to kill net metering for customers of municipal utilities and electric cooperatives [reducing how much they get paid for excess electricity] and to discontinue the community solar program. Less talked about are the unfair solar access fees charged by some Minnesota cooperatives, which I brought up in Senate testimony earlier this year. They're some of the highest in the country. We see solar access fees as potentially even more detrimental for rural solar customers than the proposed net metering changes. In effect, solar customers are charged an additional fee even if they never sell electricity back to the grid. It's like charging someone who installs LED light bulbs. My biggest concern is that we continue this approach of imposing fees instead of trying to come up with better rules. In general, we need to get away from emotional thinking on energy policy. Policymakers and state energy regulators should take into account the countless data-driven studies showing the long-term value of customer-owned energy production. Right now, utility companies seem to be dominating the conversation and winning these battles, which in turn is stifling our ability to innovate toward a better energy system. We should be considering more ideas and working with utilities to test them. We've worked with 400 or 500 different utilities across the country and Xcel is right up there with the most difficult, which is frustrating. Fighting each other on everything is not going to get us anywhere. Our solution literally gives power back to the people, which not only makes customers more resilient but increases the grid's resilience as well. In turn, that avoids the need to build as much new infrastructure, like substations and power plants. The problem is that investor-owned utilities make more money when they build new infrastructure. So they continue the traditional model of building big, centralized power plants. The technology [wind and solar power] might be newer and cleaner, but the model is the same. Customers end up paying for this. We need to find a healthy balance before we get a snowball effect where more folks say 'I'm done,' and cut the cord, which increases costs for the remaining customers and ultimately hurts the people who can least afford to pay their bills. That's where we're headed if we continue to have an adversarial relationship with utilities. We can. The solar industry is learning that we need to compromise, that we can't just have our cake and eat it too. We can't see ourselves as the only solution because we're just one of many. The reality is, we build thousands of projects in Xcel's territory every year, which shows that we can work together. They — and we — are willing to come to the table. We can do more, though. We would like utilities to be partners in allowing new solutions, like placing more customer-owned batteries on the grid to capture and store power for times when it's needed most. That's a powerful solution that utilities should value appropriately. We also believe utilities should value the non-energy benefits of customer-owned resources, like jobs and economic activity. Yeah, it's concerning to hear [government officials] speaking out of both sides of their mouths. You can't say you want a manufacturing renaissance in the United States and then eliminate incentives for people to buy the products you want to make here. [Editor's note: To pay for tax cuts expected to cost $4.5 trillion over 10 years, congressional Republicans are considering repealing or sunsetting tax incentives for buyers and manufacturers of clean energy products, including solar panels and grid-connected batteries. They're also mulling deep cuts to Medicaid.] So if the tax credits are reduced or eliminated, we'll see a reduction in American manufacturing activity. That said, we believe that solar will continue to make sense regardless and that innovation could actually accelerate out of necessity in the absence of incentives. We'll see added pressure to make these products better and cheaper. From a global perspective, the industry will continue to grow. Just look at China. While I'm disheartened by some of the proposals under consideration in the state Legislature right now, I know that we have really intelligent, thoughtful lawmakers who are willing to fight for common sense. The House energy bill has none of the cuts proposed in the Senate, for example. And I don't think the Senate wants to kill everything either. They want to make programmatic adjustments because they want a smart, cost-effective electric grid. They're just going about it differently. That's policy. From a technology standpoint, I'm encouraged by the ongoing adoption of batteries for energy storage. It's happening fast, it's already making the grid stronger, and it's going to continue. We just need to push for a wider adoption of customer-owned and sited solutions so power continues to be put back into the people's hands. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
The Hill
06-05-2025
- Business
- The Hill
More than 100 fired from National Renewable Energy Lab
More than 100 staff members have been fired from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, spokespeople for the lab confirmed on Tuesday. A National Renewable Energy Lab spokesperson cited 'stop work orders from federal agencies, new federal directives, and budgetary shifts' in its reason for the firings. 'As a result, NREL has experienced workforce impacts affecting 114 employees across the laboratory, including staff from both research and operations, who were involuntarily separated today,' the spokesperson said. However, spokespeople for the lab declined to elaborate on what orders it had received. The National Renewable Energy Lab had nearly 3,700 employees as of 2023, and it is the Energy Department's primary energy systems lab. The lab has campuses in Colorado, Alaska and Washington, D.C. The job cuts come as the Trump administration has sought to cut staffing across the board — but has also demonstrated a particular distaste for renewable energy. While even under his last administration, Republicans called for an 'all of the above' energy strategy, this time around the Trump administration has excluded renewables from its energy emergency declaration and sought to stop or even claw back approvals for wind projects.
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
114 people fired from National Renewable Energy Laboratory as federal cuts impact Colorado
DENVER (KDVR) — On Monday, 114 employees of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory were 'involuntarily separated' from the agency. The mass layoff was confirmed in an email from an NREL spokesperson, who said NREL is dealing with 'a complex financial and operational landscape shaped by the issuance of stop work orders from federal agencies, new federal directives, and budgetary shifts.' 'As a result, NREL has experienced workforce impacts affecting 114 employees across the laboratory, including staff from both research and operations, who were involuntarily separated today,' the statement read. 'We appreciate their meaningful contributions to the laboratory. NREL's mission continues to be critical to achieve an affordable and secure energy future. We are grateful for the dedication and commitment of our staff as we continue to advance the laboratory's work.' NREL is self-described on its website as 'the U.S. Department of Energy's primary national laboratory for energy systems research and development.' NREL said on its website that it employs over 3,600 employees with campuses in Arvada, Golden, Fairbanks and Washington, D.C. Answers demanded on DOGE lease cancellations of Colorado's federal agencies On May 2, the Office of the President sent a letter to the Committee on Appropriations recommending that billions in funds committed to renewable energy be canceled, calling it the 'Green New Scam.' However, NREL is not directly listed in any of those line items, but it does name $2.5 billion in cuts to the DOE's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy program, which the Trump Administration said funnels taxpayer dollars into 'unreliable energy and EVs to advance the destructive 'Green New Deal' agenda.' 'EERE is also responsible for outlandish regulations that drive up costs for American families, like banning gas stoves and incandescent light bulbs,' the White House information sheet argued. 'The Budget proposal refocuses spending on research and development, technologies improving baseload power, and bioenergy, while saving taxpayers over $2.5 billion.' The Trump administration has increased oil and gas drilling efforts with plans for expanded offshore drilling and more public land drilling and mining. The news of the NREL layoffs comes almost a month to the day after U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright traveled to the NREL campus in Golden to speak to staff as part of his tour of the Department of Energy's 17 national labs. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to FOX31 Denver.
Focus Malaysia
23-04-2025
- Business
- Focus Malaysia
Solar shake-up: US targets Asian imports, eyes local manufacturing growth
VIETNAM, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia are the US' top four sources of imported solar panels. Collectively, these four countries accounted for an estimated 82% of US solar panel imports in 2024. Vietnam and Thailand alone accounted for 35.5% and 23.7%, respectively, making up more than half of US module imports. In terms of solar cells, the four affected Southeast Asian countries account for close to 60% of US imports, with Malaysia accounting for the largest share of 32%. Based on an analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in December 2024, solar cells produced in the US using domestically sourced wafers and polysilicon would have a cost premium of USD0.135/watt over cells produced in Southeast Asia, or a 139% premium. The primary drivers behind the higher US costs are a less developed supply chain, higher cost of capital, higher labour cost and more rigorous environmental controls. 'However, considering that the tariffs slapped on the four Southeast Asian countries are much higher than this cost premium, we reckon the latest tariff is sufficiently high to have an impact on the volume of imported solar cells and modules from these exporting countries into the US,' said TA Securities (TA) in the recent Thematic Report. TA anticipate several potential outcomes from the latest development: (i) Supply chain shifts – manufacturers may shift production to countries not affected by the tariff such as India, Indonesia, Laos and South Korea leading to temporary disruption and adjustment in the global supply chain. (ii) Increased cost for US solar energy developers as the increased tariffs will temporarily increase the cost of solar panels in the US. (iii) Domestic substitution – eventually the tariffs may encourage more investment into US domestic solar cell/module production leading to increased capacity. In the short-term, TA reckons there could be some volatility in global solar module prices given potentially idled capacity within the four affected countries before US import substitution (whether domestically or from alternative import sources) kicks in. 'Nevertheless, we believe the impact may not be too significant considering that US panel imports accounts for just 5% of global panel manufacturing capacity, in our estimates,' said TA. In addition, given that manufacturers are now barely breaking even, TA believes global solar module prices may already be close to reaching a floor at current levels. Given that most of the local listed solar players operate within the downstream segment, mainly in the EPCC and asset ownership space, TA believes the latest solar cell/module tariff by the US would have a largely neutral impact on the sector, notwithstanding potential positive implications. TA remains overweight on the sector premised on: (i) Demand-supply tightness in the generation market (ii) Record-high RE rollout (iii) Expansion in grid capex to accommodate the energy transition. —Apr 23, 2025 Main image: buysolar
