Latest news with #NationalTruckloadIndex
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What SONAR Is Telling Us This Week
If you've been hauling freight over the last few years, you already know—this market hasn't been kind to small carriers. Rates have been stuck low. Fuel hasn't offered much relief. And too many loads are posted without the pay to back them up. But this week, the data is showing signs that the market might be starting to shift. Not in a drastic way—but enough that smart carriers can get ahead of it if they understand what's happening. The data we're pulling from is called SONAR. It's FreightWaves' industry platform that shows real-time freight activity—spot rates, shipment volumes, rejection rates, and more. But we're not going to throw a bunch of graphs at you and expect you to know what it means. We're going to break it down in plain language so you can make better decisions with your truck and your time. This chart shows the National Truckload Index (NTI). That's the average linehaul rate per mile for dry van freight on the spot market. This week, that number ticked up to $2.31 per mile. That's not a huge jump, but it's meaningful. Two weeks ago, we were seeing spot rates hovering around $2.20. So this recent climb—about 5%—is the first clear sign of upward movement in a while. What this means for you:Rates are starting to inch up going into Memorial Day, which lines up with what typically happens seasonally. Retail freight, grilling supplies, beverage distribution—these all see a bump before the holiday. So if you're running spot market, now's a time to start dialing in to where those loads are popping. But here's the catch: don't just chase posted numbers. Spot rates might be improving overall, but that doesn't mean every broker's going to offer it up freely. You've still got to negotiate like it's your business, because it is. This chart shows the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI). That's just a fancy way of saying how many shipments shippers are offering out to the market each day. The higher the number, the more freight is available to move. This week's number sits at 10,448. That's slightly up from last week, and what's more important—it's stable. In a market that's been shrinking or flat-lining, a consistent climb is a positive indicator. What this means for you:Shippers are putting more freight into the system. That means opportunities are starting to show up again. If you've been running the same lanes and seeing nothing but cheap or partial loads, it's time to start exploring lanes where the volume is climbing. Because when freight gets tight, so does pricing—and that's when you can take advantage. This map shows where spot market rates are rising or falling by region. Blue means rates are going up. Red means they're dropping. What we're seeing this week is a whole lot of light to dark blue across the Midwest, Southeast, and parts of Texas. That tells us one thing—carriers in those areas are getting better rates over the last few days. What this means for you: If you're based in or near: Ohio, Indiana, or Kentucky Georgia or the Carolinas Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston …you're likely going to see stronger offers this week. That doesn't mean chasing freight just because it pays slightly more—but if you're already running those lanes, now's the time to hold your ground on price and not settle for garbage just to stay moving. This last map is all about where the most outbound freight is coming from. Darker blue means more volume, which means more opportunities. White or light areas are slow. What stands out right now: California is heating up again (especially Southern California) Houston and Atlanta are consistently staying active Midwest markets like Chicago and Indianapolis are climbing back up What this means for you: You want to position your truck in zones where loads are abundant—because that's where brokers have to compete more to get trucks. And when they're competing, you get better rates. Think of it like this: in blue areas, you're the one holding the leverage. In white zones, you're just trying to stay loaded. Diesel costs remain elevated, especially in California and the Northeast. Make sure your lane strategy includes fuel-efficient planning—not just chasing gross revenue. Some carriers are running tighter this week, with roadcheck week just behind us. That means capacity is a little thinner than usual—and you might get a better rate if you're available and reliable. Imports are rising on the West Coast, which means those port-adjacent markets like LA, Long Beach, and even Phoenix are going to be flooded with inbound loads needing redistribution soon. This is not a full rebound. Not yet. But this is the kind of early movement that smart carriers can benefit from—if you know where to look and how to act. Here's what you should be doing right now: Get your breakeven dialed in and stop taking anything below it unless you absolutely have to Run lanes where the volume and rate maps align—blue to blue Use the holiday week to stack multiple short runs in good markets Push back on bad rates and get back to real negotiation The market doesn't owe you anything—but right now, it's starting to give you options. If you know how to read SONAR, it doesn't just give you information—it gives you a strategy. And in this game, strategy always beats hustle. The post What SONAR Is Telling Us This Week appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Roadcheck effects persist as truckload market still tightening
The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's (CVSA) annual International Roadcheck inspection blitz has come and gone, but its effects on the trucking industry are proving more persistent than in recent years, revealing a market that may be more vulnerable to disruption than previously thought. The three-day enforcement initiative, which took place last Tuesday through Thursday, saw inspectors across North America conducting comprehensive examinations of both driver credentials and vehicle conditions. While Roadcheck week traditionally causes temporary market tightening as drivers opt to sideline their trucks, this year's aftermath suggests deeper structural issues in the freight market. During the inspection period itself, truckload capacity tightened noticeably, with the Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) increasing by over half a percentage point in just a few days. National tender rejection rates jumped from 5.21% on May 11 to 6.48% by Sunday. Simultaneously, the National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks aggregated dry van spot rates, rose approximately 4.5% – from $2.19 a mile to $2.29 a mile – over the same period. What makes this year's Roadcheck response particularly notable is that these elevated rejection rates have persisted beyond the inspection period itself. The sustained tightening indicates this is potentially the most vulnerable the truckload market has been in years, despite broader economic historical context highlights just how unusual this year's reaction has been. In 2021, Roadcheck had minimal market impact as spot rates were already climbing 1%-2% weekly, creating strong financial incentives for drivers to remain operational despite inspection risks. The 2022 event was similarly muted, despite a collapsing demand environment, due to the sheer volume of carriers still on the road during that transitional market phase. Last year marked a more significant response to Roadcheck than previous years, though still relatively marginal and complicated by the Memorial Day holiday. This year's more dramatic and sustained market reaction suggests a fundamental shift in the balance between supply and demand. The current market conditions help explain this heightened sensitivity. Spot rates had declined by 8% over the previous three months, reflecting broader stagnation across the economy and freight sector. In this challenging environment, many carriers are operating with minimal financial cushion, simply trying to cover basic operational costs. A key insight from the SONAR data is that the surge in rejections wasn't driven by increased demand. The National Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) showed stable tender volumes from shippers to carriers throughout the period, confirming that the tightening stemmed exclusively from the supply side of the year also introduced a variable that likely contributed to the market dynamics: the enforcement of an existing rule requiring drivers to speak and read English. While it's unclear if this was a focal point in this year's inspections, it potentially contributed to an increased number of drivers choosing not to operate, further constraining available capacity. For freight brokers and carriers, the lingering effects of Roadcheck could signal challenging conditions ahead. If this summer follows typical seasonal patterns, shippers will likely have an increasingly difficult time securing capacity, especially considering that current rejection rates are already approaching last year's summer peak levels. In 2023, rejections climbed from Roadcheck levels to 6.59% by early July, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Looking ahead, while Roadcheck week alone won't fundamentally alter the difficult conditions facing the industry, its magnified impact this year serves as an important indicator of underlying market fragility. Additional potential disruptions loom on the horizon, including a recent surge in import bookings following the Trump administration's softening stance on tariffs with China. This could trigger a wave of inbound freight and contribute to a summer uptick in demand. The transportation industry may be approaching the catalyst it has been anticipating. While the immediate effects of Roadcheck will fade, the combination of evolving trade conditions, potentially low inventory levels and the demonstrated sensitivity to capacity disruptions suggests the market may be at an inflection point. The post Roadcheck effects persist as truckload market still tightening appeared first on FreightWaves.
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
International Roadcheck tests trucking market
Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Reject Index, National Truckload Index – USA SONAR: Truckload capacity tightened noticeably during the annual CVSA International Roadcheck inspection period, with tender rejection rates (OTRI) increasing by over half a percentage point in just a few days. The National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks aggregated dry van spot rates, rose approximately 1.8% over a three-day span. While the full impact of the safety blitz on capacity will take several more days to become clear, early indicators suggest this is the most vulnerable the truckload market has been in years. The market has not experienced sustained tightening capable of driving consistent upward pressure on transportation rates since 2022. Although there are signs that supply and demand are moving closer to equilibrium, the environment remains challenging, and carrier exits continue at elevated levels. Roadcheck week provides a unique, short-term pulse check on market conditions. Many drivers and owner-operators opt to take time off during this period, as the risk of being placed out of service or cited for violations outweighs the revenue potential of hauling freight. A stronger reaction to the inspection period typically signals a softer, more fragile market vulnerable to the Roadcheck period is brief, it functions as a quick stress test for underlying market weakness. In 2021, Roadcheck had a limited effect on the market, as spot rates were increasing at a pace of 1%-2% per week. This created strong financial incentives for drivers to stay on the road despite the inspections. In 2022, despite a collapsing demand environment, the sheer number of carriers on the road — due to the market being in a transitional phase — muted the impact of Roadcheck. In 2023, the response was more noticeable, though still marginal and complicated by Memorial Day. Last year marked the most significant reaction to Roadcheck in several rates have declined by 8% over the past three months, reflecting broader stagnation across the economy and freight sector. In this environment, the primary financial incentive for carriers is simply to stay operational and cover basic costs. Large fleets are typically less concerned about inspections but may be unexpectedly called upon to cover freight normally handled by smaller operators, who often step back during Roadcheck week. This dynamic puts additional strain on large carriers' networks and drives up rejection rates. This year introduces a new variable: The Trump administration has authorized states to enforce an existing rule requiring drivers to speak and read English. While it's unclear if this was a focal point in this year's inspections, it likely contributed to an increased number of drivers choosing not to operate, further tightening capacity. Importantly, the surge in rejections wasn't driven by demand. The National Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) showed stable tender volumes from shippers to carriers, suggesting the tightening stemmed from the supply side. Although impactful, Roadcheck week alone will have limited long-term impact on the difficult conditions facing brokers and carriers. The inspection period lasts only three days, and demand is expected to face continued headwinds in the coming weeks. However, potential disruptions loom. Import bookings surged this past week following the administration's softening stance on tariffs with China. This could trigger a wave of inbound freight and a summer uptick in demand. While the impact of Roadcheck will fade, evolving trade conditions and possibly low inventory levels could become the catalyst the transportation industry has been anticipating. The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on for future reference. SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience. To request a SONAR demo, click here. The post International Roadcheck tests trucking market appeared first on FreightWaves. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What the Latest Rate Dip Means for Small Carriers Part 2
It is May 2025, and if you have been paying any attention to your settlements over the last 30 days, you already know what we are about to talk about today. We are officially staring down another rate dip, one that is not just uncomfortable but potentially damaging if you are still operating without a plan. Spot rates have slid once again, tender rejections are falling like a rock, and the combination of softer volumes and rising global tariffs is stacking headwinds against small carriers. This is not the time for theories. This is the time for facts, strategy, and action. Because what we are seeing right now is not just a market cycle. It is a separation you need to be on the right side of it. Take a hard look at the SONAR charts. The National Truckload Index (NTI) is sitting at $2.20 per mile today. That is a continuous three-month slide from $2.29 in March and $2.25 in April. This is not an isolated blip. This is a trend. Van Spot Rate Per Mile has dropped nine cents in just 60 days. Van Contract Rate Per Mile is hovering at $2.27, near its 52-week low. Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) is down to 4.95%, a clear sign that carriers are accepting nearly every contracted load offered, with no pricing leverage. Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) remains soft, barely above 10,000 tendered loads nationally, showing no meaningful surge in demand even during typical spring shipping seasons. Translation for small carriers:The freight is out there—but not enough to support aggressive rate are ultimately taking what you can get in this market. As if the market dynamics were not enough, May also brings another pressure point—tariffs. The U.S. government recently expanded tariffs on multiple Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, solar components, and critical manufacturing inputs. The ripples from those decisions are starting to flow into the supply chain, and they are not helping freight volumes. What does that mean for you? Certain sectors like retail and consumer goods could tighten inventory orders Import-heavy markets like Los Angeles and Savannah might see softer inbound flows Pricing pressure will continue downstream, making cost control even more critical You are now playing in a freight market that is being squeezed from both sides—demand softness and cost inflation. That is why you have to move differently now. If you are a one-truck operator or a boutique fleet under ten trucks, here is the brutal truth. You cannot bank on rates improving anytime cannot depend on load boards to save cannot operate on emotion. As The 12 Week Year reminds us: 'Success is not based on intention. It is based on execution.' And execution in this market looks like controlling the controllables. Your break-even cost per mile is no longer just a nice number to know. It is your survival number. If you do not know exactly: Your fuel cost per mile Your maintenance cost per mile Your insurance cost per mile Your fixed expenses per week You are driving blind. This rate environment does not reward hustle. It rewards precision. Every penny saved on maintenance, every idle hour you eliminate, every tire you properly inflate—that is how you build margin in a $2.20 RPM world. Look at the spot rate map above. The pockets of rate strength are not national—they are regional. The Southeast and parts of Texas are showing some Midwest remains volatile but opportunistic if you play it West Coast? Soft, unless you are landing high-value produce or air freight. Chasing miles from coast to coast will bleed your profits dry. In this market, smart carriers shorten their lanes, tighten their operating radius, and build density around 1-2 core lanes. You need to operate like a sniper, not a shotgun. If you are still waiting for brokers to call you with good freight, you are already behind. The carriers who will survive this stretch are the ones proactively building direct shipper relationships now, not six months from now. That means: Picking up the phone every week Sending follow-up emails Building small lanes with local manufacturers and distributors Showing up professional, consistent, and reliable It is not glamorous. It is not quick. But it is how you get off the hamster wheel of the spot market. Remember from The 12 Week Year: 'Action is the bridge between where you are and where you want to be.' Shipper outreach is not optional anymore. It is necessary. If you are feeling the squeeze, you are not feeling it is not an excuse to freeze. Here are a few things every small carrier should be doing immediately: Review every controllable expense on your books Audit your route density and regional exposure Make five direct shipper outreach attempts per week minimum Double down on preventive maintenance to avoid breakdown premiums Track idle time, speed, and MPG weekly using your ELD data Reset your revenue goals based on realistic RPM assumptions (between $2.10–$2.30, not $2.70 dreams) The carriers who keep moving, who keep adjusting, and who keep executing daily rhythms will not just survive this rate dip—they will be the ones standing tall when the rebound comes. You cannot fake your way through this market. Every corner cut, every lazy load booked, every late delivery—those cracks are getting exposed faster than ever. And if you are serious about being here 12 months from now, you need to be serious about playing the long game starting today. Inside the Playbook Masterclass, we are not teaching are teaching that work whether the rate is $2.70 or $ that give you power when the rest of the market is losing control. Because just like The 12 Week Year says: 'When you choose execution, you choose freedom.' The question is—what are you choosing today? Because the clock is ticking, and the market is not waiting for anyone. The post What the Latest Rate Dip Means for Small Carriers Part 2 appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio
