Roadcheck effects persist as truckload market still tightening
The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's (CVSA) annual International Roadcheck inspection blitz has come and gone, but its effects on the trucking industry are proving more persistent than in recent years, revealing a market that may be more vulnerable to disruption than previously thought.
The three-day enforcement initiative, which took place last Tuesday through Thursday, saw inspectors across North America conducting comprehensive examinations of both driver credentials and vehicle conditions. While Roadcheck week traditionally causes temporary market tightening as drivers opt to sideline their trucks, this year's aftermath suggests deeper structural issues in the freight market.
During the inspection period itself, truckload capacity tightened noticeably, with the Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) increasing by over half a percentage point in just a few days. National tender rejection rates jumped from 5.21% on May 11 to 6.48% by Sunday. Simultaneously, the National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks aggregated dry van spot rates, rose approximately 4.5% – from $2.19 a mile to $2.29 a mile – over the same period.
What makes this year's Roadcheck response particularly notable is that these elevated rejection rates have persisted beyond the inspection period itself. The sustained tightening indicates this is potentially the most vulnerable the truckload market has been in years, despite broader economic concerns.The historical context highlights just how unusual this year's reaction has been. In 2021, Roadcheck had minimal market impact as spot rates were already climbing 1%-2% weekly, creating strong financial incentives for drivers to remain operational despite inspection risks. The 2022 event was similarly muted, despite a collapsing demand environment, due to the sheer volume of carriers still on the road during that transitional market phase.
Last year marked a more significant response to Roadcheck than previous years, though still relatively marginal and complicated by the Memorial Day holiday. This year's more dramatic and sustained market reaction suggests a fundamental shift in the balance between supply and demand.
The current market conditions help explain this heightened sensitivity. Spot rates had declined by 8% over the previous three months, reflecting broader stagnation across the economy and freight sector. In this challenging environment, many carriers are operating with minimal financial cushion, simply trying to cover basic operational costs.
A key insight from the SONAR data is that the surge in rejections wasn't driven by increased demand. The National Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) showed stable tender volumes from shippers to carriers throughout the period, confirming that the tightening stemmed exclusively from the supply side of the equation.This year also introduced a variable that likely contributed to the market dynamics: the enforcement of an existing rule requiring drivers to speak and read English. While it's unclear if this was a focal point in this year's inspections, it potentially contributed to an increased number of drivers choosing not to operate, further constraining available capacity.
For freight brokers and carriers, the lingering effects of Roadcheck could signal challenging conditions ahead. If this summer follows typical seasonal patterns, shippers will likely have an increasingly difficult time securing capacity, especially considering that current rejection rates are already approaching last year's summer peak levels. In 2023, rejections climbed from Roadcheck levels to 6.59% by early July, ahead of the Independence Day holiday.
Looking ahead, while Roadcheck week alone won't fundamentally alter the difficult conditions facing the industry, its magnified impact this year serves as an important indicator of underlying market fragility. Additional potential disruptions loom on the horizon, including a recent surge in import bookings following the Trump administration's softening stance on tariffs with China. This could trigger a wave of inbound freight and contribute to a summer uptick in demand.
The transportation industry may be approaching the catalyst it has been anticipating. While the immediate effects of Roadcheck will fade, the combination of evolving trade conditions, potentially low inventory levels and the demonstrated sensitivity to capacity disruptions suggests the market may be at an inflection point.
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Truckload's path to equilibrium
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The exodus of carriers was driven by significant cost pressures. Publicly traded freight brokerage RXO noted in its quarterly market report that 'the average cost to operate a truck is 34% higher over the past decade but absolute spot rates are largely the same as they were in 2014.' This economic reality made it increasingly difficult for carriers to maintain profitability, particularly smaller operators without the scale or financial resources to weather prolonged market weakness. According to RXO, the truckload market 'has remained relatively calm' with spot rates continuing to step higher despite disruption from rapidly changing tariff policies. The market has followed a trend – largely in place since 2023 – of soft freight demand, reductions in carrier capacity and gradually stabilizing situation created what RXO described as 'a difficult landscape for carriers,' with many 'running with unsustainable unit economics.' This harsh operating environment accelerated the pace of carrier exits, despite 'a couple of atypical months of operating authority growth in March and April.' By mid-2025, the prolonged exodus of carriers finally brought the market closer to equilibrium. As RXO observed in its quarterly forecast, 'We're as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we've been in over two years.' The broker noted that 'relatively speaking, the capacity situation is much more fragile than at this time last year.' This newfound balance began manifesting in key market indicators. The national average Outbound Tender Rejection Index, which measures the percentage of tendered loads rejected by carriers, climbed to 6.67% by June 2025 – reaching the threshold where rejections start putting inflationary pressure on spot rates. Most enterprise shippers prefer to maintain tender acceptance percentages in the upper 90s, meaning many were already experiencing problematic service levels. The data showed significant improvement in rate trends as well. TL spot rates (excluding fuel) were up 9.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, following an 11.6% growth rate during the fourth quarter of 2024. Contractual rates also increased 1.4% year over year in the first quarter – the first annual increase since the end of 2022.A notable development in the recovering market has been the emergence of significant regional disparities. By June 2025, tender rejection rates for truckload shipments originating in the Southeast surpassed 10% – marking the first time in nearly three years they reached that level. In contrast, rejection rates for freight departing the West Coast remained well below the national average and were the lowest among the seven major U.S. regions. This contrast was particularly striking given the focus on imports and Southern California ports that handle the bulk of U.S. container traffic. While tender volumes out of the Southeast were down 6% year over year, West Coast volumes declined 14% annually, suggesting that demand alone wasn't driving the regional disparity. Part of the explanation lies in intermodal transportation patterns. Much of the long-haul freight demand from the West shifted to rail, with intermodal capturing a large share from the truckload sector. Loaded container volumes moving by rail out of Los Angeles remained up year over year, even as they dipped alongside declining import levels. Meanwhile, long-haul tender volumes out of Los Angeles dropped 26% annually. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index measures the percentage of truckload tenders rejected by carriers and serves as an indicator of the relative balance of supply and demand in the truckload market. (Chart: SONAR. To learn more about SONAR, click here.) By June 2025, the 'interior' markets of Atlanta, Chicago and Dallas showed the tightest capacity conditions among major freight centers. Atlanta's outbound tender rejection rate reached 8.89%, continuing an upward trend that began in late February. Chicago's rejection rate stood at 7.07%, while Dallas reported 6.86% – all above the national average. The market trajectory for truckload rates remains 'inflationary,' according to RXO, though trade policy presents a significant wild card. The 3PL classified the early part of 2025 as 'still primarily a shippers' market' but noted that 'with a continued difficult landscape for carriers, and (in many cases) decreasing 2025 contract rates setting in, it could set the stage for volatility later in 2025.' The broader trend for 2025 calls for more carrier exits and high operating costs to keep upward pressure on rates. 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New week sees ocean container rates soar
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