Latest news with #NatixisCorporateandInvestmentBank
RTHK
02-05-2025
- Business
- RTHK
Q1 GDP posts better-than-expected growth
Q1 GDP posts better-than-expected growth The Hong Kong economy grew by 3.1 percent in the first three months of the year, higher than a 2.5 percent increase in the October-to-December period. Photo: RTHK The Hong Kong economy grew by 3.1 percent in the first quarter – its best performance in five quarters – as surging exports helped boost growth. That compared with a 2.5 percent year-on-year increase in the final three months of 2024. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the economy grew by 2 percent in the first quarter. The 3.1 percent growth was partly driven by higher exports, which climbed 8.7 percent from a year ago, up from a 1.3 percent increase in the fourth quarter, as exporters rushed to send shipments out after US President Donald Trump announced higher tariffs. Imports also saw strong growth, posting a 7.4 percent jump, compared with a 0.4 percent increase in the previous three months. Exports of services rose further, while imports saw a smaller increase. Commenting on the latest data, Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, struck a cautious note, saying the city's economy may be at "a more challenging position than it looks on the surface". "There is the wider trade surplus as companies rushed to send their orders to the US before all the tariffs are implemented," he told RTHK. "But when you really look at the core part of the economy, which is household spending, there is a wider year-over-year decline. So I think this is why Hong Kong's economy will likely face continuing pressure, simply because domestic consumption is not showing any significant signs of a rebound for now." The government has projected a full-year GDP growth of 2 percent to 3 percent. Meanwhile, latest government figures showed the city's retail sales fell by 3.5 percent in March year on year to HK$30.1 billion. That's the 13th consecutive month retail sales have dropped. But it was a smaller decline compared with a 7.8 percent decrease in January and February. A government spokesman said the sustained steady growth of the mainland economy and efforts by the SAR to promote tourism will boost the retail sector. But he also cited challenges posed by uncertainty in the global economic outlook and the impact of changing consumption patterns.
South China Morning Post
09-04-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
US inflation? China is more worried the trade war will make goods too cheap
While US President Donald Trump's tariff hikes stoke fears of inflation in America, China is likely to face the opposite problem: deepening deflation that compounds a long-running economic headache for Beijing. Advertisement But China's push to boost domestic demand amid an escalating global trade war could help cushion the downward pressure on prices, analysts said. Now, Washington's tariff hikes threaten to exacerbate those issues, with another 50 per cent increase in US duties on Chinese goods taking effect at noon on Wednesday. 'China's problem is … more related to demand, as it has overcapacity,' said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank. 'Losing overseas markets can pressure China's corporate profit margins and fuel competition domestically.' Advertisement
South China Morning Post
09-04-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Gold slumps as Trump tariffs roil markets, but it remains a safe-haven choice: analysts
The price of gold has tumbled amid shock waves from the tariff war between the United States and China, but the precious metal remains the safe-haven asset of choice in times of volatility, analysts said. Advertisement The spot price of gold climbed 40 per cent in a year to hit an all-time high of US$3,167.77 an ounce on April 3, but US President Donald Trump's announcement of his long-promised 'reciprocal tariffs' then saw the price fall by about 5.1 per cent to US$3004.57 as of 11am on Wednesday. Analysts attributed the drop to short-term sell-offs by traders needing to cover losses from other asset classes. Alex Chiu, senior exchange-traded fund (ETF) strategist at asset management firm Value Partners, said gold could be used to mitigate losses when the wider market was experiencing 'abnormal volatility'. 'During market downturns … brokers may initiate a margin call that sells off gold to cover losses in other positions,' he said, adding that gold was an easily liquidated asset. Advertisement Trump's tariff onslaught has triggered a steep downturn in the world's financial markets. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 13.2 per cent on Monday, wiping out HK$194 billion (US$25 billion) in value in its biggest decline since October 1997. Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, said the sell-off in gold was likely to be a short-term phenomenon.
South China Morning Post
05-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Beijing's counter-tariffs on US goods to have ‘limited impact' on Hong Kong prices
Beijing's new counter-tariffs on certain US goods are expected to have a limited impact on the prices of American products in Hong Kong, economists have said, but one industry head has warned that local business could still suffer from weaker investment sentiment as the trade war erupted between the superpowers. Advertisement The latest round of Beijing's retaliatory measures against the United States included imposing additional import tariffs of 15 per cent on poultry and agricultural products, and 10 per cent on soybean, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy, sparking questions about a potential spillover on Hong Kong. Economists highlighted the city's status as a free port and separate customs territory from mainland China, meaning the special administrative region does not automatically implement Beijing's tariffs on US products. 'The trade Hong Kong intermediates between the US and China is mainly electronics. [The tariffs] can still affect some food-related shipments, but the scale is relatively small and other sources may fill the gap in China's imports,' Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, said on Tuesday. 'Compared to the US tariffs on 'de minimis' imports, China's retaliation will have a limited impact on Hong Kong.' Advertisement The 'de minimis value' is a threshold that exempts imports from duty.
South China Morning Post
25-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Don't expect quick fixes from Hong Kong's budget, economists say
Hong Kong's finance chief will deliver his 'most challenging' budget yet on Wednesday morning, analysts have said, pointing to the need for tempering wide-ranging expectations while cautioning the public against counting on quick fixes to the city's economic woes. Advertisement While the predicted deficit of nearly HK$100 billion (US$12.86 billion) has made headlines in recent weeks, the observers said on Tuesday all eyes should be on measures to balance the books over the coming years rather than expecting overnight solutions. The bigger task was to ensure the deficit did not become a structural problem, they indicated. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po should focus on the bigger picture and boost public confidence in the economy for the medium and long-term, they added. Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, described this year's budget as Chan's 'most challenging' one. 'Policies should be about restoring the government's financial health and the best way to do it would be to ensure Hong Kong's growing momentum, so income tax [and other sources of revenue] would return,' he said. Advertisement He cautioned it would take years to see the benefits of some measures such as a review of the civil service establishment.
