Latest news with #NaturalHazardsCommission
Scoop
15-07-2025
- Science
- Scoop
Volcanic Clouds In Auckland May Travel Twice As Far As Previously Thought, New Research Shows
Press Release – Natural Hazards Commission A volcanic eruption in Auckland could result in clouds of hot, fast-moving gas and debris, known as base surges, travelling much farther than previously thought,and scientists are now working to revise estimates to better plan for future events. Base surges are one of Auckland's most deadly volcanic hazards. They form when magma mixes with groundwater creating a low-lying cloud of volcanic gas, ash, and rock that can move at tens of metres per second. 'Based on international research, we think current estimates of how far base surges could travel in Auckland are far too conservative,' says Gemechu Teferi, who is leading the research as part of his PhD with DEVORA (DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland), a multi-disciplinary programme co-funded by Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC) and Auckland Council. Research into Ubehebe Craters in California's Death Valley, a volcanic zone similar to the one found beneath Auckland, found evidence of base surges 10 to 15 km from volcanic vents. 'This is at least two times farther than previous estimates of how far surges can travel, and we want to know if such distances are also possible in the Auckland Volcanic Field,' says Teferi. The arid environment in Death Valley is excellent at preserving geological evidence that would otherwise be eroded by weather, vegetation, and urban development in places like Auckland. Auckland Emergency Management's response plan for a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field has been updated to include the longer surge run out distances, but studies are needed to test whether these can be realistically expected in Auckland. NHC's Chief Resilience Officer Dr Jo Horrocks says, 'This research has implications for how we plan for future eruptions, as, if confirmed, it means the impacts of a volcanic eruption in Auckland would be potentially far greater than we previously thought.' At least 42 of Auckland's 53 volcanoes show evidence of phreatomagmatic eruptions which are known to involve base surges. Teferi recently visited over 30 of these sites and selected nine which showed the best geologic evidence of base surges for further investigation. In the coming months, Teferi's team will analyse rocks from the selected sites using a technique known as AMS (Anisotropy Magnetic Susceptibility) which can pick up microscopic evidence of flow behaviour of past base surges. Teferi will feed the geological evidence and AMS analysis into a computer model that will estimate the true distance the base surge travelled. He will then simulate possible future base surge scenarios. The information will support councils, emergency responders, and loss modellers with planning for the impact of future eruptions. Horrocks says, 'Although unlikely, the impact of a volcanic eruption on Auckland is huge and base surges will be one of the biggest hazards. A more accurate estimate of how far these deadly clouds will travel can help councils with evacuation planning and insurers with estimating potential loses.'
Scoop
14-07-2025
- Science
- Scoop
Volcanic Clouds In Auckland May Travel Twice As Far As Previously Thought, New Research Shows
Press Release – Natural Hazards Commission The arid environment in Death Valley is excellent at preserving geological evidence that would otherwise be eroded by weather, vegetation, and urban development in places like Auckland. A volcanic eruption in Auckland could result in clouds of hot, fast-moving gas and debris, known as base surges, travelling much farther than previously thought, and scientists are now working to revise estimates to better plan for future events. Base surges are one of Auckland's most deadly volcanic hazards. They form when magma mixes with groundwater creating a low-lying cloud of volcanic gas, ash, and rock that can move at tens of metres per second. 'Based on international research, we think current estimates of how far base surges could travel in Auckland are far too conservative,' says Gemechu Teferi, who is leading the research as part of his PhD with DEVORA (DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland), a multi-disciplinary programme co-funded by Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC) and Auckland Council. Research into Ubehebe Craters in California's Death Valley, a volcanic zone similar to the one found beneath Auckland, found evidence of base surges 10 to 15 km from volcanic vents. 'This is at least two times farther than previous estimates of how far surges can travel, and we want to know if such distances are also possible in the Auckland Volcanic Field,' says Teferi. The arid environment in Death Valley is excellent at preserving geological evidence that would otherwise be eroded by weather, vegetation, and urban development in places like Auckland. Auckland Emergency Management's response plan for a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field has been updated to include the longer surge run out distances, but studies are needed to test whether these can be realistically expected in Auckland. NHC's Chief Resilience Officer Dr Jo Horrocks says, 'This research has implications for how we plan for future eruptions, as, if confirmed, it means the impacts of a volcanic eruption in Auckland would be potentially far greater than we previously thought.' At least 42 of Auckland's 53 volcanoes show evidence of phreatomagmatic eruptions which are known to involve base surges. Teferi recently visited over 30 of these sites and selected nine which showed the best geologic evidence of base surges for further investigation. In the coming months, Teferi's team will analyse rocks from the selected sites using a technique known as AMS (Anisotropy Magnetic Susceptibility) which can pick up microscopic evidence of flow behaviour of past base surges. Teferi will feed the geological evidence and AMS analysis into a computer model that will estimate the true distance the base surge travelled. He will then simulate possible future base surge scenarios. The information will support councils, emergency responders, and loss modellers with planning for the impact of future eruptions. Horrocks says, 'Although unlikely, the impact of a volcanic eruption on Auckland is huge and base surges will be one of the biggest hazards. A more accurate estimate of how far these deadly clouds will travel can help councils with evacuation planning and insurers with estimating potential loses.'
Otago Daily Times
20-05-2025
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Tower posts improved profit, plans to expand risk-based pricing
Insurance group Tower has posted an improved profit on the back of increased premium income, lower costs and reduced claims. Key numbers for the six months ended March compared with a year ago: Net profit $49.7m vs $36m Underlying profit $61.7m vs $36.6m Gross premium $297m vs $269m Forecast underlying profit $70-80m Interim dividend 8 cents per share The New Zealand insurer said better weather led to a lower level of ordinary claims, - so-called business as usual claims - while premium income rose as it attracted new business and it kept a lid on its costs. "These positive first-half results reflect Tower's commitment to delivering sustainable, profitable growth by upholding core insurance fundamentals: robust risk selection and pricing, and claims management," interim chief executive Paul Johnston said. The company said it had improved risk selection, with 91 percent of new policies sold in the first half rated low or very low flood risk, compared with 86 percent the year before. However, reduced-risk policies and greater market competition limited revenue growth, and there was a fall in vehicle insurance premiums because of rate reductions and a tightening in its risk appetite. Johnston said it would extend its risk based approach. "This year we will expand risk-based pricing to include sea surge and landslide risks, helping our customers better understand their risks and how these factors impact their insurance pricing." Tower said it was still paying for continuing customer remediation-related costs and an increase in Canterbury earthquake cost estimates, as it received more claims than expected from the Natural Hazards Commission. It had large event claims of $3m from the Dunedin floods in October last year, and expected that it would be paying out around $4m for claims from Cyclone Tam, which would be included in the second half report. Tower had $50m set aside for major event claims for the full year.
Scoop
05-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
2024 General Insurance Stress Test Results Published Today
Press Release – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Capital injections from their parent companies and ongoing availability of reinsurance were identified as critical to enabling insurers to continue to offer cover following such an event. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published the results from the 2024 General Insurance Industry Stress Test. The exercise assessed insurers' responses to a major earthquake and severe but plausible cyber-risk incidents. The seismic scenario was based on a magnitude 8.7 earthquake along the Hikurangi Subduction Zone off the east coast of the North Island. The scenario was designed to simulate an event well beyond our solvency requirements to enable testing of insurers' preparedness and recovery plans. This scenario would result in widespread damage and a sharp decline in GDP. Participating insurers modelled property losses of $62 billion, which rose to around $100bn if extrapolated out to cover the whole market. 'Despite the severity of the scenario, policyholder claims would have been met,' said Kerry Watt, Director of Financial Stability Assessment and Strategy. 'This is a sign of the resilience that's been built into the system since the Canterbury earthquakes, including strengthening of solvency requirements, increased coverage by the Natural Hazards Commission and improved loss estimation modelling.' The severity of the test did mean substantial mitigating actions were required to return insurers to required solvency positions. Capital injections from their parent companies and ongoing availability of reinsurance were identified as critical to enabling insurers to continue to offer cover following such an event. The exercise provided valuable insights to feed into our review of solvency standards and our recovery planning. The stress test noted the significant impacts beyond the insurance industry. This includes costs to the Crown through funding of the Natural Hazards Commission and meeting recovery costs for damage to uninsured assets and any economic support programmes. This highlights the importance of the government maintaining sufficient fiscal buffers to manage such shocks. 'The exercise was challenging and required a significant collaborative effort across industry and government. Ultimately, the scenario highlights the importance of all stakeholders, individually and collectively, understanding the risks and preparing for these types of severe events,' said Mr Watt. The stress test also included a number of cyber scenarios, including a major data breach, a critical cloud services outage, and a ransomware attack. Insurers demonstrated resilience to claims arising from large cyber events, though these could have a significant impact on profitability. 'Cyber risks are growing and evolving quickly. This exercise helped insurers identify where they are most exposed, and where more work is needed to understand and model these risks. We encourage the industry to build on these insights to improve resilience in this rapidly changing space,' Mr Watt said. The Reserve Bank will continue to work closely with insurers and relevant government agencies to support New Zealand's preparedness for seismic and cyber risks.
Scoop
05-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
2024 General Insurance Stress Test Results Published Today
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published the results from the 2024 General Insurance Industry Stress Test. The exercise assessed insurers' responses to a major earthquake and severe but plausible cyber-risk incidents. The seismic scenario was based on a magnitude 8.7 earthquake along the Hikurangi Subduction Zone off the east coast of the North Island. The scenario was designed to simulate an event well beyond our solvency requirements to enable testing of insurers' preparedness and recovery plans. This scenario would result in widespread damage and a sharp decline in GDP. Participating insurers modelled property losses of $62 billion, which rose to around $100bn if extrapolated out to cover the whole market. "Despite the severity of the scenario, policyholder claims would have been met,' said Kerry Watt, Director of Financial Stability Assessment and Strategy. 'This is a sign of the resilience that's been built into the system since the Canterbury earthquakes, including strengthening of solvency requirements, increased coverage by the Natural Hazards Commission and improved loss estimation modelling.' The severity of the test did mean substantial mitigating actions were required to return insurers to required solvency positions. Capital injections from their parent companies and ongoing availability of reinsurance were identified as critical to enabling insurers to continue to offer cover following such an event. The exercise provided valuable insights to feed into our review of solvency standards and our recovery planning. The stress test noted the significant impacts beyond the insurance industry. This includes costs to the Crown through funding of the Natural Hazards Commission and meeting recovery costs for damage to uninsured assets and any economic support programmes. This highlights the importance of the government maintaining sufficient fiscal buffers to manage such shocks. 'The exercise was challenging and required a significant collaborative effort across industry and government. Ultimately, the scenario highlights the importance of all stakeholders, individually and collectively, understanding the risks and preparing for these types of severe events,' said Mr Watt. The stress test also included a number of cyber scenarios, including a major data breach, a critical cloud services outage, and a ransomware attack. Insurers demonstrated resilience to claims arising from large cyber events, though these could have a significant impact on profitability. 'Cyber risks are growing and evolving quickly. This exercise helped insurers identify where they are most exposed, and where more work is needed to understand and model these risks. We encourage the industry to build on these insights to improve resilience in this rapidly changing space,' Mr Watt said. The Reserve Bank will continue to work closely with insurers and relevant government agencies to support New Zealand's preparedness for seismic and cyber risks.
