Latest news with #NatureCommunicationsEarthandEnvironment
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Cost estimates rising for permafrost-related damage to Alaska roads and buildings
An abandoned house, seen on Aug. 2, 2022, teeters on the edge of a cliff that has eroded away because of permafrost thaw. (Photo by Yereth Rosen/Alaska Beacon) Permafrost thaw is expected to impose costs of $37 billion to $51 billion to Alaska roads and buildings through the middle of the century, according to a newly published study. The calculated toll, detailed in a study published in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment, is higher than previous estimates of thaw costs to Alaska permafrost. That is because of a more complete inventory of roads, buildings and structures like storage tanks, made possible by improved satellite imagery and other technology, said lead author Elias Manos of the University of Connecticut. Past studies have estimated several billion dollars in estimated costs. A 2023 study of thaw damages to infrastructure across the Arctic, for example, estimated costs to Alaska transportation facilities at between $14 billion and $24.5 billion by midcentury, with another $3 billion in costs from damages expected to buildings. As information about existing infrastructure increases, estimates of costs are likely to do so as well, said Manos, who is pursuing the research as he works toward a doctoral degree. Better permafrost modeling could also help refine cost estimates, he said. An important aspect of the study is that thaw damages analyzed are already ongoing, Manos said. This number is what has already occurred or what is occurring in the moment, as opposed to what's happening or going to happen the future,' he said. The study compares expected costs under two climate scenarios, one with lower carbon emissions that eventually level off, creating less dramatic global warming, and the other with carbon emissions continuing at about their current rate, resulting in higher levels of warming. It also compares effects in different parts of the state. Measured by dollars, the Fairbanks North Star Borough stands to bear the highest costs, at over $7.4 billion for buildings and over $6 billion for roads through the 2060s, under the higher warming scenario. That reflects the concentration of infrastructure in that relatively high-population area, Manos said. Measured per capita in the higher-warming scenario, the Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area has the highest anticipated costs of permafrost-thaw damages to buildings and houses, the study found. Even a more southern part of the state, where permafrost exists only in sporadic pockets, is vulnerable to damages, the study found. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough expected to have approximately $1 billion in permafrost-related costs through the 2060s, almost entirely from damage to roads, according to the study. While enhanced information about infrastructure has enabled a more refined estimate for thaw-related costs, the infrastructure tally in the new study is incomplete. It does not include the North Slope oil fields, oil pipelines, the Red Dog Mine or other large industrial sites. Manos said he has analyzed those and plans to include them in future studies. This study is more focused on communities 'where people actually live,' he said. Those communities are also where much of the cost of permafrost thaw is borne, sometimes without much assistance, said study co-author Anna Liljedahl of the Massachusetts-based Woodwell Climate Research Center. Homeowners can buy flood insurance, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency provides aid to cover damage caused by various weather and climate events, Liljedahl noted. 'But when it comes to permafrost, it's not part of the language at the federal level,' she said. The federal Stafford Act, under which FEMA provides disaster aid, addresses acute events like storms, not ongoing and more gradual events like permafrost thaw. Thaw can be expensive to homeowners, nonetheless, she said. She cited cases in Fairbanks where people bought property without understanding the permafrost below. 'Suddenly, there are sinkholes appearing, and their foundation is sinking in,' she said. The analysis of thaw-related costs to infrastructure is continuing. The Alaska-focused study is part of a more comprehensive circumpolar mapping project by Manos that also includes Canada and Russia. Up to now, lack of data about infrastructure has posed a challenge, especially in Russia, he said. That is why satellite imagery is valuable. 'That's kind of the beauty of satellite-based Earth observation, or as people call it, remote sensing,' he said. There is now commercial satellite imagery spanning the Arctic, he added. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Hindustan Times
01-05-2025
- Science
- Hindustan Times
Potential presence of primitive lunar mantle materials on Chandrayaan-3 landing site: Study
A new study by the Physical Research Laboratory (PRL), Ahmedabad, has found the potential presence of primitive lunar mantle materials, which is likely to have been formed during the formation of the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin 4.3 billion years ago, at the Chandrayaan-3 landing site. SPA basin is one of the Moon's largest and oldest impact features in the solar system. The Chandrayaan-3 landing site is located 350kms from the basin. Researchers said the findings, published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment on Wednesday, could aid in the study of the early evolution of the Moon. Analysing the concentrations of volatiles (chemical elements and compounds) measured by the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS), an instrument on-board the Pragyan rover at Shiv Shakti statio near the South Polar Region, the 12-member team found high levels of sulphur at the Chandrayaan-3 highland landing site in the range of 900-1400 ppm, which was 300-500 ppm (parts per million) higher than in soil samples from lunar highlands from in Apollo 16 and Luna 20 missions. However, the levels of sodium and potassium from the Chandrayaan-3 landing site was found to be much lower at 700-2800ppm and 300-400 ppm respectively as compared to the earlier missions. The APXS experiment was designed and developed by PRL, a unit of the department of space. Researchers said the differences in the concentrations of these volatile elements as compared to those found in Apollo 16 and Luna 20 missions make it important to investigate the probable source that led to their enrichment or depletion at the Chandrayaan-3 landing site. Explaining how the team arrived at the present conclusion, Rishitosh K Sinha, lead author of the study said that on the Moon, around 400-1000 ppm of sulphur can come from Type I carbonaceous chondrite (CC) meteorites crashing on the lunar surface. 'However, this is still less by 200-400 ppm than what APXS measured at the landing site. Moreover, the surface temperatures at the landing site, which is located at 70 degrees south in the Southern Polar region, is much higher for sulphur to condense in the plume as compared to if the site was closer (85-90 degrees) to the South Pole,' said Sinha. Closer to the South Pole, where surface temperatures are lower, sulphur can condense into solid form. Therefore, said Sinha, there had to be another source of sulphur that increased its concentration at the landing site. 'The other possible source for excess sulphur therefore would be the primitive lunar mantle material that would have thrown up during the SPA basin formation.' He further explained that the low levels of sodium and potassium at the Chandrayaan-3 landing site as opposed to the Apollo 16 and Luna 20 missions suggests that potassium, rare earth elements, and phosphorus (called KREEP) might not have existed at the place and time of SPA basin formation. 'This new finding therefore makes the Chandrayaan-3 landing site a promising site to access primitive mantle samples, which is otherwise lacking in the existing lunar collections,' said Sinha. Sinha said during the end of the lunar magma ocean (LMO) crystallisation stages, when the Moon's initial molten state solidified, the residual molten layer became enriched in a mineral called Troilite (FeS). 'We have proposed that the SPA basin impact event excavated this FeS from the sulphur-enriched primitive lunar mantle, while the KREEP layer was still in the process of formation. The subsequent impacts on the SPA basin ejecta stirred things up, mixing sulfur-rich materials from the SPA basin with the nearby material at the landing site,' he said. On August 23, 2023, the Chandrayaan-3 mission made the first successful landing in the South Polar region of the Moon following which APXS directly measured the elemental composition of the Moon's surface at Shiv Shakti statio, an unexplored location, in the southern high-latitude highlands of the nearside of the Moon. Last year, a study published in Nature by the same group had found evidence of high magnesium in the soil at the same landing site that could have originated from the deeper layers of the Moon. It provided clues for the presence of lower crust and/or upper mantle materials at the landing site. 'High magnesium also comes from the mantle. With evidence of high concentrations of sulphur now, the present study becomes robust since it complements the previous study.' Anil Bhardwaj, Director PRL, also a co-author in this study, said that finding primitive mantle material is important because Apollo and Luna missions only comprised collections of lunar samples. 'We really don't have samples from the lunar mantle. These samples are crucial to understand how the Moon was formed, what connection does it have with the Earth, presence and proportion of volatile elements in the lunar interior and how it evolved over time,' said Bhardwaj. Commenting on the significance of the study, Rajesh VJ, professor, department of earth and space sciences at the Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, who was not involved with the study, said, the primitive mantle material from any planetary bodies is significant, as it provides vital information about the chemical composition of the early materials (rocks/minerals) present towards the deeper part (especially the mantle), before it underwent any sort of petrological modifications. Hence, these materials are used by geoscientists to understand the origin and early evolution of a planetary body. 'The discovery of sulphur-rich primitive mantle materials provides a rare opportunity for planetary scientists to conduct detailed investigations of the early evolution of the Moon. It provides the scientific community with more vital information about the composition of the lunar interior and its volatile contents,' he said.
Indian Express
30-04-2025
- Science
- Indian Express
Potential presence of primitive lunar mantle material at landing site: Study
The Shiv Shakti point, where the world's first lunar landing was facilitated by India's Chandrayaan 3 in 2023, could hold a promising potential site for scientists to study the most primitive mantle samples on the lunar surface. The Shiv Shakti point is located at the southern high-latitude highlands of the nearside of the Moon. Scientists from Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) used data gathered by Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer onboard the Pragyan rover. They compared metal remnants and elemental concentrations of sulfur, potassium, sodium among others at the Shiv Shakti point where Chandra-yaan 3 landed on August 23, 2023. Sulfur, potassium and sodium can give insights into the mantle composition and chemistry. 'There is an anomalous depletion in sodium and potassium at the site, whereas there is an enrichment in sulfur found in the soils at the highland landing site,' said the study published in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment. Detailing its significance and the plausible reasons for both depletion and abundance of certain metals, the researchers said, 'There is a potential presence of primitive lunar mantle materials at the landing site, which was excavated during formation of the South Pole-Aitken basin, around 4.3 Ga (billion years) ago and may have got redistributed by subsequent impacts on the SPA basin ejecta. While the primitive mantle contributed to the excess sulfur, it later got mixed up with the materials at the landing site,' the paper noted. The South Pole-Aitken basin is one of the largest known impact craters on the lunar surface. The low levels of sodium and potassium at the Shiv Shakti point, the researchers said, could suggest that these elements may not have originally existed at the place and time of the very formation of the SPA basin. The variations in the elemental concentrations revealed by Chandrayaan 3 data has overturned findings made by previous lunar missions — the Apollo 16 and Luna 20 by the US and the Soviets, respectively. According to the PRL team, Chandrayaan 3 data noted the concentration of sulfur to be 300-500 parts per million higher than in soils gathered by the above missions. The Indian team is studying this anomalous difference in the concentrations and trace the causes at the landing site.
