Latest news with #NaveenMathur
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Commodity Radar: Crude Oil caught between war winds and OPEC's supply surge. 3 things charts suggest
Crude oil prices traded steady on Wednesday as concerns over higher output from OPEC+ groups were partially offset by supply pressures caused due to the Canadian wildfires along with economic uncertainties in the wake of global trade tensions. The June crude oil futures on the MCX were trading at Rs 5,473 per Bbl, gaining Rs 18 or 0.33% over the previous closing price. Domestic prices moved in tandem with the international prices. On the COMEX, the US WTI contracts were trading at $63.71 around 4 PM India time, up by $0.30 or 0.47% while the Brent Oil futures were hovering around $65.93, also gaining by $0.30 or 0.46%. Commenting on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the rebound in crude oil prices has been due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of strong summer travel demand. 'While the bias remains positive, OPEC's aggressive supply hikes and bearish market sentiment driven by trade war concerns and surplus fears are likely to limit sharp gains,' he said. Crude oil prices rebounded last month from near $55 per barrel levels and are once again caught in a narrow range of $60–$65, as markets continue to reflect a disconnect between sentiment and reality. 'Trader sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to tariff war fears and OPEC's aggressive unwinding of supply cuts, raising expectations that global oil balances may shift into surplus. On a year-to-date basis, crude oil is down approximately 12%,' Mathur said. In his view, the demand for oil remains strong ahead of the travel season even as global inventories remain tighter than usual. So far, the trade war has not shown any major impact on oil demand, he opined. Recently, OPEC+ announced it would increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive month of sizable supply hikes. This has led to some disappointment in the Street's mood, though the impact has been largely capped as the prices have traded in a range. Mathur said that there are doubts whether the additional oil will actually reach the global market. The geopolitical risks are also supporting prices and the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war despite the ongoing negotiations in Turkey. The Anand Rathi analyst also attributed the stalling of nuclear talks between US and Iran, to be supporting the oil prices. A deal would sanctions against Iran, bringing Iranian oil into the market. Now that appears unlikely, Mathur said. Outlook 'In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain supported. With steady demand, tight inventories, and heightened geopolitical risks, the bias is tilted upward. However, any significant upside remains capped due to OPEC's continued unwinding of supply cuts,' Mathur said. Tech view: Mathur decodes the tech set-up and here's what he said: 1) Moving averages: MCX Crude Oil maintains a bullish bias, holding firmly above its 21-Day Moving Average at 5,262, which serves as a key support level. 2) Key levels: The price action is confined to a consolidation range of 5,250–5,450, with immediate resistance at 5,460. A breakout above the psychological level of 5,500 could pave the way for an upside rally toward 5,685, signalling strength in the bullish momentum. 3) MACD: Technical indicators support this outlook, with the MACD trading above the zero line, reflecting sustained positive momentum. The price structure indicates a bullish bias, with key support near 5,250 and resistance around 5,460. A breakout above 5,500 could signal stronger upward momentum, potentially opening the path toward higher levels like 5685-5945.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: Crude Oil caught between war winds and OPEC's supply surge. 3 things charts suggest
Crude oil prices traded steady on Wednesday as concerns over higher output from OPEC+ groups were partially offset by supply pressures caused due to the Canadian wildfires along with economic uncertainties in the wake of global trade tensions. ADVERTISEMENT The June crude oil futures on the MCX were trading at Rs 5,473 per Bbl, gaining Rs 18 or 0.33% over the previous closing price. Domestic prices moved in tandem with the international prices. On the COMEX, the US WTI contracts were trading at $63.71 around 4 PM India time, up by $0.30 or 0.47% while the Brent Oil futures were hovering around $65.93, also gaining by $0.30 or 0.46%. Commenting on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the rebound in crude oil prices has been due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of strong summer travel demand. 'While the bias remains positive, OPEC's aggressive supply hikes and bearish market sentiment driven by trade war concerns and surplus fears are likely to limit sharp gains,' he oil prices rebounded last month from near $55 per barrel levels and are once again caught in a narrow range of $60–$65, as markets continue to reflect a disconnect between sentiment and reality. ADVERTISEMENT 'Trader sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to tariff war fears and OPEC's aggressive unwinding of supply cuts, raising expectations that global oil balances may shift into surplus. On a year-to-date basis, crude oil is down approximately 12%,' Mathur his view, the demand for oil remains strong ahead of the travel season even as global inventories remain tighter than usual. So far, the trade war has not shown any major impact on oil demand, he opined. ADVERTISEMENT Recently, OPEC+ announced it would increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive month of sizable supply hikes. This has led to some disappointment in the Street's mood, though the impact has been largely capped as the prices have traded in a range. Mathur said that there are doubts whether the additional oil will actually reach the global market. ADVERTISEMENT The geopolitical risks are also supporting prices and the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war despite the ongoing negotiations in Turkey. The Anand Rathi analyst also attributed the stalling of nuclear talks between US and Iran, to be supporting the oil prices. ADVERTISEMENT A deal would sanctions against Iran, bringing Iranian oil into the market. Now that appears unlikely, Mathur said.'In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain supported. With steady demand, tight inventories, and heightened geopolitical risks, the bias is tilted upward. However, any significant upside remains capped due to OPEC's continued unwinding of supply cuts,' Mathur said. 1) Moving averages: MCX Crude Oil maintains a bullish bias, holding firmly above its 21-Day Moving Average at 5,262, which serves as a key support level. 2) Key levels: The price action is confined to a consolidation range of 5,250–5,450, with immediate resistance at 5,460. A breakout above the psychological level of 5,500 could pave the way for an upside rally toward 5,685, signalling strength in the bullish momentum. 3) MACD: Technical indicators support this outlook, with the MACD trading above the zero line, reflecting sustained positive momentum. The price structure indicates a bullish bias, with key support near 5,250 and resistance around 5,460. A breakout above 5,500 could signal stronger upward momentum, potentially opening the path toward higher levels like 5685-5945. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold prices hit Rs 1 lakh! What's the outlook for gold and should you buy or sell the yellow metal? Explained
have been skyrocketing and how! have breached the Rs 1 lakh mark, a historic first for the yellow metal. Gold has always been seen as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. Concerns over global economic growth, escalating China-US trade war are driving the rise in gold prices, with a weaker dollar having added to the momentum. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Experts believe that fundamentally markets are pricing in increased geopolitical risks, fuelled by US President Donald Trump's trade policy tensions and stagflation concerns which could continue to drive further gains for the yellow metal. Central banks around the world have been on a gold buying spree for several quarters and have shored up their gold reserves to new highs. Incidentally, RBI has not only been buying gold, it has also been shifting significant quantities back to India. Central banks on gold buying spree But with the precious metal crossing the Rs 1 lakh mark - the important question in the minds of investors is - is the gold rally sustainable? How much steam is left in this rally? Also, should you be buying gold at such high levels, or is it time to book profits? We ask experts: Rise of Gold Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers points out that gold has seen exceptional performance since the start of the year. It has risen over 21% till date, touching new record highs more than 20 times this year. According to a PTI report, 20 years ago in April 2005, gold was trading at Rs 6,267 per 10 grams on MCX. It has risen steadily through various global economic rises such as the 2008 financial meltdown, COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict. In April 2025, gold hit its all-time high level of Rs 1,00,000 for the August month delivery, which is a 41% surge in just 12 months. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Gold Price Also Read | India in a good spot, China in big trouble: Mark Mobius warns market likely to get even shakier on Trump's tariff moves Gold price outlook : Where are gold prices headed? Abhilash Koikara, Head Forex & Commodity, Nuvama Professional Clients Group has a target for gold prices at $3,930 levels in dollar terms. According to Koikara, on MCX gold prices can test Rs 1,12,000 levels by December 2025. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity at Ventura sees gold continuing to be an attractive investment bet under the current global conditions. Price predictions for gold are being made on these premises and can fluctuate based on subsequent changes in the market conditions. Factors like inflation, central bank demand, and economic uncertainty will continue to influence gold prices, he said. 'We believe that the prices in this euphoria may rise sharply this year to $3700 an ounce but the target by December 2025 should be around $3200 - $3300. In rupee terms the target for December 2025 should be close to Rs 92,000 – Rs 93,000 per 10 grams (due to expected rupee appreciation) with USDINR expected to be in the range of 83.50 – 84.50 by December 2025,' he told TOI. After the year end 2025 corrections, with the impact of tariffs and economic slowdown across the globe, we could witness the safe haven demand for gold to surge in the year 2026 wherein we expect gold prices to surpass $4000 an ounce (Ranging between $3800 - $4200) an ounce, he added. Naveen Mathur of Anand Rathi still sees room for a 10-15% rise in gold prices from current levels. $3800 – 3850 per oz in spot translating to levels of Rs 1,05,000 – 1,08,000 per 10 gm in the domestic markets, still looks possible till December 2025 end, he says. MCX Gold VS BSE Sensex According to Mathur, the current rally has been too fast as the rise from Rs 90,000 to Rs 1 lakh was seen only under the last 12 trading days while the run from Rs 80,000 to Rs 90,000 took about 77 days. 'This indicates price corrections of up to 5-10 % which could be seen in the coming weeks,' he told TOI. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd believes gold could inch towards $3350-3500 and consolidate near the same. 'However, looking at the momentum, a rally towards $3700 over the long term can also not be ruled out. Assuming USDINR at 85, on the domestic front, immediate range is near Rs 96500- 1,00,000. From a longer term perspective, Rs 1,06,000 could be possible,' he says. Also Read | Gold @ Rs 1 lakh: Should you buy or sell? Abhilash Koikara of Nuvama Professional Clients Group advocates buying gold on dips. 'We may witness shallow corrections in the coming days till $3,380 (approximately Rs 96,800)- $3,300 (approximately Rs 94,800) and such corrections must be used as a buying opportunity for medium/long term horizon for the specified targets,' he tells TOI. NS Ramaswamy of Ventura says that with gold touching Rs 1 lakh, investors could either hold their long position or book profits to initiate a buy position in the range of Rs 92,500 – Rs 94,000 levels. Asset Class Comparison 'Fresh buying at the present levels of Rs 98,000 to Rs 1,00,000 lakh is not recommended. Bottom fishing could be done at Rs 92,500 to Rs 94,000 levels,' he says. Manav Modi of Motilal Oswal also advocates the same strategy for gold investors. 'If you are a new investor in gold, then a buy on dips strategy is the best way forward. Investors should definitely not sell, because the long term outlook is strong. For existing gold investors, partial profit booking and then re-entry at dips may be the right strategy,' he tells TOI. Anand Rathi's Naveen Mathur says gold remains a long term buying opportunity for investors. 'We suggest investors continue to buy gold at regular intervals considering it as a portfolio diversifier against other asset classes from a long term perspective,' he concludes. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
