Latest news with #NaveenThukral
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Weak Chinese demand leaves Australia with too much wheat
By Peter Hobson and Naveen Thukral CANBERRA/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Australian wheat inventories will likely be much higher than last year at the end of the season, pressuring prices, because of a drop in Chinese imports and competition from ample supplies out of rival exporter Russia, analysts and traders said. A fire sale of stored grain may be necessary to clear space before the new wheat harvest in the last quarter of the year, which would weigh on benchmark Chicago futures already trading near their lowest since 2020 because of abundant global supply. [GRA/] Australia sent just 546,000 metric tons of wheat to China during the October to March period, the first six months of its marketing season, down from 2.9 million tons in the first six months of the 2023/24 season and 4.4 million tons in the same period in 2022/23, Australian customs data show. Shipments from Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, have also remained strong despite the second quarter typically being its pre-harvest lean export season. The next Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest, including Russia's, will ramp up in coming weeks, pouring cheap grain onto the market and limiting Australia's export prospects, said Vitor Pistoia, an analyst at Rabobank in Sydney. "If the current pace of Australian exports continues, we're going to have 5-6 million tons of carryover from last season's crop," he said. "We are building up a massive problem. It's not like the global market is short of supply," he said, adding that it may lead to mass selling of grain that could push prices towards A$300 ($194) a ton from between A$325 to A$350 now. Total carryover including grain from past seasons could be as high as 8 million tons, said a source at an international grain trader based in Australia. "If the new season crops look good, it can become a storage capacity issue. It forces people to sell cheaper into the export market to clear space," the source said. Australia's end-of-season wheat stocks have averaged 3.3 million tons in the last five years, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "Four million tons is comfortable," the source said. "More than 6 is getting difficult." Analysts expect Australia to produce 28 million-34 million tons of wheat this year. That would be down from last year's 34.1 million tons but well above the ten-year average of 27.6 million tons, according to government data. Chinese buyers booked four or five 55,000-ton shipments of Australian wheat around the start of May, but these are the only new Chinese purchases this calendar year and have not been followed up with more. China, which was experiencing hot and dry in key growing regions, is likely to see rainfall in those areas through next Tuesday which could further reduce demand for imported wheat. Russia, meanwhile, has continued to ship grain at competitive prices even during its off season, said a grain trader in Singapore. "We were hoping more Australian wheat cargoes would reach destinations in the Middle East and Africa," they said. "There were expectations that Russia would have less to export." ($1 = 1.5530 Australian dollars)
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's April soybean imports hit decade-low as customs delays disrupt trade
By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China's soybean imports plunged to a 10-year low in April as prolonged customs clearance delays and late Brazilian shipments caused by harvest slowdowns and logistics issues disrupted the usual flow of cargoes, traders and analysts say. Total imports for the month reached 6.08 million metric tons, down 29.1% from the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2015, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs. The customs delays have severely strained China's oilseed processing sector from April through early May, tightening soymeal supplies for its vast livestock industry. Soybean cargoes now take 20-25 days to move from ports to crushing plants, up from the usual 7-10 days, according to four traders, who were granted anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue in China. "Crushing operations have taken a hit," said one source. By early May, several crushing plants in northern and northeastern China had to cut output or halt operations due to backlogs, a trader and analyst said, adding that some feed mills ran out of stock and turned to costly spot cargoes. There has been no official acknowledgement of delays, which come amid the trade war between China and its second-largest soybean supplier. China's customs did not immediately respond to faxed questions about the delay. China's benchmark Dalian soymeal futures briefly rallied in late April but have since retreated, with expectations of incoming Brazilian shipments putting pressure on prices. While crushing activity is gradually recovering, market participants remain cautious about potential port congestion if delays persist. From January to April, soybean arrivals totalled 23.19 million tons, reflecting a 14.6% decline from the 27.15 million tons recorded in the same period last year. Soybean imports are expected to rebound sharply in May and June with some Chinese analysts and traders expecting monthly numbers around 11 million tons. However, Brazil's grain exporters association, Anec, said on Wednesday that total soybean exports could fall to 12.6 million tons in May, potentially limiting how much could be shipped to China. U.S. SOYBEAN PURCHASES DECLINE While Friday's data does not distinguish imports by country of origin, purchases from the U.S. have continued to decline, said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong-based Sublime China Information. As of the week ending May 1, net soybean sales to China for the 2024/25 marketing year were zero, weekly United States Department of Agriculture data showed. Beijing's 125% retaliatory tariff would virtually halt U.S. soybean imports if no agreement is reached before the marketing season later this year. All eyes are on the upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials in Switzerland, where U.S. President Donald Trump expects progress on trade and the potential reduction of the 145% U.S. tariff on China. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's April soybean imports hit decade-low as customs delays disrupt trade
By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China's soybean imports plunged to a 10-year low in April as prolonged customs clearance delays and late Brazilian shipments caused by harvest slowdowns and logistics issues disrupted the usual flow of cargoes, traders and analysts say. Total imports for the month reached 6.08 million metric tons, down 29.1% from the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2015, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs. The customs delays have severely strained China's oilseed processing sector from April through early May, tightening soymeal supplies for its vast livestock industry. Soybean cargoes now take 20-25 days to move from ports to crushing plants, up from the usual 7-10 days, according to four traders, who were granted anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue in China. "Crushing operations have taken a hit," said one source. By early May, several crushing plants in northern and northeastern China had to cut output or halt operations due to backlogs, a trader and analyst said, adding that some feed mills ran out of stock and turned to costly spot cargoes. There has been no official acknowledgement of delays, which come amid the trade war between China and its second-largest soybean supplier. China's customs did not immediately respond to faxed questions about the delay. China's benchmark Dalian soymeal futures briefly rallied in late April but have since retreated, with expectations of incoming Brazilian shipments putting pressure on prices. While crushing activity is gradually recovering, market participants remain cautious about potential port congestion if delays persist. From January to April, soybean arrivals totalled 23.19 million tons, reflecting a 14.6% decline from the 27.15 million tons recorded in the same period last year. Soybean imports are expected to rebound sharply in May and June with some Chinese analysts and traders expecting monthly numbers around 11 million tons. However, Brazil's grain exporters association, Anec, said on Wednesday that total soybean exports could fall to 12.6 million tons in May, potentially limiting how much could be shipped to China. U.S. SOYBEAN PURCHASES DECLINE While Friday's data does not distinguish imports by country of origin, purchases from the U.S. have continued to decline, said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong-based Sublime China Information. As of the week ending May 1, net soybean sales to China for the 2024/25 marketing year were zero, weekly United States Department of Agriculture data showed. Beijing's 125% retaliatory tariff would virtually halt U.S. soybean imports if no agreement is reached before the marketing season later this year. All eyes are on the upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials in Switzerland, where U.S. President Donald Trump expects progress on trade and the potential reduction of the 145% U.S. tariff on China. Sign in to access your portfolio
Zawya
30-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Chicago wheat rises after losses, improved US weather caps gains
SINGAPORE/PARIS: Chicago wheat futures rose for the first time in three sessions on Wednesday, with bargain-hunting supporting prices, although much needed rain in the U.S. crop belt kept a lid on prices. Corn and soybeans slid, with both markets facing pressure from rapidly advancing U.S. planting and the Washington-Beijing trade war. The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.2% at $5.26-3/4 a bushel as of 1042 GMT, after dropping around 2.5% on Tuesday. Soybeans fell 0.9% to $10.43-3/4 a bushel, while corn declined 0.1% to $4.69-3/4 a bushel. " The significant improvement in U.S. winter wheat conditions (...) is weighing heavily on this market. This pressure is further reinforced by the expectation of beneficial rainfall in the southern Great Plains," Argus' consultancy Agritel said in a note. U.S. farmers had planted 24% of the corn crop as of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report released on Monday, one percentage point behind analysts' estimate but ahead of the five-year average of 22%. The agency said the soybean crop was 18% planted, ahead of the five-year average of 12% and analysts' estimate of 17%. The China-U.S. trade war is continuing to cloud U.S. soybean export prospects. China aims to cut grain use in livestock feed to around 60% and slash soymeal content to about 10%, the agriculture ministry said. However, this may prove difficult as China's soybean imports were at a record high last year, raising questions about the implementation of feed reformulation efforts. Corn and soybean markets were also pressured by favourable crop weather in South America. Recent showers have eased drought conditions that threatened Brazil's safrinha corn crop, while a dry spell in Argentina is set to help corn and soybean harvesting after heavy rains. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, wheat and soyoil futures contracts on Tuesday, but were net buyers of soymeal futures, traders said. (Reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singqpore and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris; Editing by Sumana Nandy, Sonia Cheema and Chizu Nomiyama ) Reuters
Mint
28-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Grains and soybeans fall on U.S.-China trade talks confusion
Grains, soybeans down on U.S.-China trade talks uncertainty Welcome rain forecast in U.S. also weakens wheat By Naveen Thukral and Michael Hogan SINGORE/HAMBURG, - Chicago soybeans, wheat and corn fell on Monday as confusion about the status of talks to end the U.S.-China trade war weighed. Forecasts of welcome rain in U.S. grain belts also weakened wheat. "There is no clarity on U.S.-China trade talks," said one trader in Singapore. "As of now, soybeans coming from the U.S. to China will attract tariffs." Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans fell 0.4% to $10.54-1/4 a bushel, at 1106 GMT. Corn fell 0.9% to $4.80-1/4 a bushel, wheat fell 1.5% to $5.36-3/4 a bushel. "It does not look like a quick breakthrough in the U.S./China trade dispute is on the cards," one German trader said. "There are conflicting statements at the top level." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he has not discussed tariffs with Chinese officials and doesn't know if President Donald Trump had talked to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Last week, Trump said talks on tariffs were taking place with China and that he and Xi have spoken. Beijing has denied that trade talks are occurring. News last week that China has exempted some U.S. goods from its tariffs sparked hopes for a de-escalation. However, U.S. soybean and grain exports to China look like they will be stopped by Chinese tariffs for the foreseeable future, traders say. "Forecasts are showing rain in the U.S. Plains in the next week, which will be good for wheat," the German trader said. "Meanwhile, Russian wheat exports are picking up despite cheap U.S. prices, this competition is not welcome for U.S. and west European exporters." Meanwhile, U.S. soybean and corn plantings are also believed to be making good progress with rain not enough to disrupt work, traders said. Russia's April wheat exports will reach 2.2 million metric tons, up from 1.9 million tons in March. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text. First Published: 28 Apr 2025, 05:08 PM IST
