29-01-2025
NASA spots asteroid as wide as 747 with 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth
Scientists have spotted an asteroid as wide as a Boeing 747's wingspan that has a one-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth. 2024 YR4 is heading towards the Earth and will arrive in December 2032.
The asteroid is 60meters wide and is currently 27million miles away. It will arrive on December 22 and will make a 'very close approach' - passing somewhere within 66,000 miles of the planet, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS).
Factoring in orbital uncertainties, there is a 1 in 83 chance of a collision - creating an airburst or a crater. 2024 YR4 has now been placed at the top of the European Space Agency's Near Earth Object Impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table.
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Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was found by NASA's ATLAS project using the Rio Hurtado telescope in Chile. Rankin told "People should absolutely not worry about this yet. Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us."
Scientists are waiting for 2028, when they will get a closer look at the asteroid as it swings past Earth at about 5 million miles. They will then be able to take better measurements of its size, orbit and speed as well as composition.
The asteroid is about the same size as the Tunguska meteor. In 1908, a meteor exploded over the Russian Tunguska River with a detonation that may have been as large as 50 megatons. It flattened an area of 80 million trees across 830 square miles.
The Tunguska event is the largest impact event on Earth in recorded history. Rankin said: "If [asteroid 2024 YT4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground. If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater."
