a day ago
Europe's Gaza offensive
BERLIN – More than a century ago, Theodor Herzl – the founding father of Zionism – was among the star journalists at the Vienna daily Neue Freie Presse. Herzl's coverage of the Dreyfus affair in 1895 as the paper's Paris correspondent convinced him of the necessity of a Jewish state. Even though the Neue Freie Presse (re-established after the Second World War as Die Presse) refused to publish his Zionist treatises, it proudly honoured Herzl as 'one of our greats' when he died in 1904. Last week, however, the traditionally conservative, Israel-friendly paper ran an op-ed urging Vienna to join 11 other EU countries in recognising Palestinian statehood – a move the author argued could help bring Israel's nearly two-year war in Gaza to an end.
'If Austria's goal is to achieve peace in the Middle East, then it should set an important step by recognising a Palestinian state,' the column argued.
The surprising declaration from Herzl's journalistic home was perhaps the most poignant sign of a wider mood swing in recent weeks as even pro-Israeli Europeans have become uneasy about Israel's handling of the war in Gaza.
Public outrage in Europe over the rapes, murders and other atrocities committed against Israelis at the hands of Hamas terrorists on 7 October 2023 has faded. Amid a relentless barrage of reports of a rising death toll in Gaza and shocking photographs of starving Palestinians – including many children – politicians across Europe, especially those in countries with large Muslim populations, have come under intense pressure to act.
That shift could have profound implications for the Jewish state's long-term relationship with Europe as even politicians considered mainstream on the continent embrace once-fringe positions, such as halting all arms deliveries to Israel.
Marking what would be the first concrete European sanction of Israel since the start of the war, the EU Commission proposed on Monday to exclude Israeli entities from receiving funding via Horizon Europe, the EU's flagship research and innovation programme. That move comes as another pillar of Euro-Israeli cooperation – the EU-Israel Association Agreement – faces intense scrutiny. There have always been pockets of anti-Israel fervour in Europe, in places like Spain, Ireland and even tiny Slovenia. But this latest vibe shift is both broader and deeper, reflecting in part the dramatic demographic changes Europe has undergone in recent decades amid an acceleration of migration from the Muslim world.
In the UK, for example, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party faced heavy backlash from Muslim communities after its initial pro-Israel messaging – a reaction that senior party officials admitted may have cost the party decisive votes in two by-elections last year.
French President Emmanuel Macron moved from arguing that a Palestinian state should come at the end of a peace process to promising to unilaterally endorse one, and ultimately set a concrete date for that last week: the next UN General Assembly in September. France is also currently co-hosting a three-day UN conference on implementing a two-state solution.
Macron's move followed the publication of an international declaration endorsed by about 20 EU countries last week decrying the suffering of civilians in Gazans . The signatories core message: 'The war in Gaza must end now.'
The countries behind the initiative did not just include the usual suspects – Spain, Ireland, Belgium – known for their affinity for the Palestinian cause. Stalwart allies of Israel – including the Netherlands, Poland, and even Austria's conservative government joined their ranks. (Austria's defection was perhaps the most surprising considering that the governing centre-right People's Party began flying the Israeli flag from the roof of the chancellor's office as a sign of solidarity long before 7 October.) German angst Germany continues to refrain from such public displays of discord with the Israeli government. That doesn't mean Chancellor Friedrich Merz isn't feeling the pressure. Across Germany, which has one of Europe's largest Muslim populations, the crisis in Gaza is an explosive issue.
In a telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, Merz stressed his 'great concern over the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza', according to an official readout . Germany continues to regard recognition of Palestinian statehood as a final step towards a two-state solution, the government said – at least for now.
After a special meeting of the country's most senior ministers on Monday, the German chancellor no longer ruled out that Berlin could support sanctions against Israel.
According to YouGov's net favourability index, Germany remains the most pro-Israel country in Western Europe. Yet sentiment is shifting: net favourability towards Israel has dropped to –44% – the lowest level since records began. More Germans now report sympathising with Palestinians than with Israelis.
Even Germany's diplomatic corps is showing signs of dissent. German media reported last week that 130 diplomats in the foreign office had formed an internal network urging Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul to consider sanctions and adopt a firmer line towards Israel. Aid for trade Much of the current ire is directed at Israel's restrictions on humanitarian aid – and at reports of civilians being killed while waiting in line for food.
Israel largely shut down the UN's aid-distribution networks in Gaza in recent months due to concerns that much of the food was ending up in Hamas' hands. As the international backlash over its response to the crisis in Gaza reached fever pitch in recent days, Netanyahu's government agreed to a 'humanitarian pause' to allow more aid trucks to enter the area.
Europe's main leverage against Israel is trade. The EU is Israel's largest trading partner, accounting for about one third of its global trade. Notably, Germany alone also accounts for a third of its major weapons imports, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
So far, only five European countries have suspended at least some arms export licences.
Among the few exceptions is the UK. Starmer's government cancelled some licences and imposed sanctions on Israeli ministers. But trade data shows Britain continues to export thousands of military items to Israel despite the official suspension.
A number of other European countries, led by Spain, have been pushing for sanctions against Israel, arguing that it has violated the human rights commitments set out in the EU–Israel Association Agreement, a deal to deepen trade and political ties, signed in 2000.
Israel managed to avoid trade sanctions in recent weeks by committing to allow more aid into Gaza.
But the lack of substantial progress has renewed calls for suspension. The EU's chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, cast doubt on the deal's viability last week, warning that 'the killing of civilians seeking aid in Gaza is indefensible'. 'All options remain on the table if Israel doesn't deliver on its pledges,' she wrote on X.
*Laurent Geslin contributed reporting.
(mk)
