Latest news with #NicholasGodec
Yahoo
31-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Home Values Are Now Falling Annually in These 4 Major Cities
Home values are now falling in four major metro areas in the South and the West, highlighting regional weakness in those housing markets in comparison with the Midwest and North. Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, and Tampa all registered annual declines in sales prices for single-family homes in May, according to data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday. Nationally, home values rose 2.3% in May compared with a year ago, the slowest annual growth pace since July 2023. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities tracked by the index, with a 7.4% increase in May. Chicago and Detroit followed with annual increases of 6.1% and 4.9%, respectively. 'With affordability still stretched and inventory constrained, national home prices are holding steady, but barely,' says Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. 'Seasonal momentum is proving weaker than usual, and the slowdown is now more than just a story of higher mortgage rates.' Home prices reflect growing regional divergence The latest Case-Shiller home price data reflects a growing regional divergence in the U.S. housing market, with the Midwest and Northeast still booming, and the South and West increasingly soft. Los Angeles barely registered an annual price gain at 1.1%, while former COVID-19 boomtowns of Phoenix, Miami, and San Diego all registered growth of less than 1%. Denver and San Francisco both registered their first annual declines in home values in nearly two years, while Dallas deepened its losses after turning negative in April. Tampa again recorded the biggest annual price decline among the 20 cities tracked, falling 2.4% and marking the city's seventh straight month of negative year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, the top five metro areas for price growth in May were all located in the Northeast and Midwest, where the supply of homes for sale remains below pre-pandemic levels. 'National inventory levels are increasing, with the latest figure showing a 28.9% year-over-year increase,' says senior economist Anthony Smith. 'At the same time, regional housing dynamics are diverging: Inventory remains tight in the Northeast and Midwest, helping to support prices, while markets across the South and West are seeing more listings, slower sales, and softer pricing conditions.' The May price data reflects another historically weak spring housing season, which put the country on track for a 30-year low in home transaction volume, according to estimates from the economic research team. 'The spring market lifted prices modestly, but not enough to suggest sustained acceleration,' says Godec. 'May's data continued the year's slow unwind of price momentum, with annual gains narrowing for a fourth consecutive month.' He adds that the national slowdown in price growth 'reflects a market recalibrating around tighter financial conditions, subdued transaction volumes, and increasingly local dynamics.' The Case-Shiller index reports on a two-month delay and reflects a three-month moving average. Homes usually go under contract a month or two before they close, so the May data reflects purchase decisions made earlier in the year. Although the index's price data is delayed by several months, it is considered one of the best available measures of changing home values, because it is based on repeat transactions on the same properties. Related Articles Olivia Dunne Begins NYC Apartment Hunt Again—After Her $1.6 Million All-Cash Offer on Babe Ruth's Apartment Was Rejected Shaquille O'Neal Says Retiring in The Villages Is a 'Dream Scenario'—and He Wants To Find Out if the Wild Rumors Are True Bethenny Frankel Ditches the Hamptons as She Reveals She Has Fully Moved Into Her 'Exquisite' Florida Home Solve the daily Crossword
Newsweek
30-07-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Map Shows Where House Prices Are Rising and Falling Fastest
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Despite dwindling sales, home prices continue to climb in much of the country and especially in the Northeast, where New York reported the highest year-over-year gain in May at 7.4 percent, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. But even as prices continue inching up, they are doing so at a slower pace than ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The index found that all nine U.S. census divisions reported an overall annual price gain of 2.3 percent in May, down from 2.7 percent in April. The 10-city composite index reported an annual increase of 3.4 percent, down from 4.1 percent a month earlier, while the 20-city composite posted a 2.8 percent year-over-year gain, down from 3.4 percent in April. "May's data continued the years' slow unwind of price momentum, with annual gains narrowing for a fourth consecutive month," Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a press release shared with Newsweek. "Seasonal momentum is proving weaker than usual, and the slowdown is now more than just a story of higher mortgage rates. It reflects a market recalibrating around tighter financial conditions, subdued transaction volumes, and increasingly local dynamics. With affordability still stretched and inventory constrained, national home prices are holding steady, but barely." Where Home Prices Are Rising—And Where They Are Falling The Northeast and the Midwest, where the shortage of homes remains most acute, experienced the highest price growth in May, according to the index. After New York, Chicago reported the second-biggest annual home price gain in May of all major U.S. metros analyzed by S&P and CoreLogic, up 6.1 percent. It was followed by Detroit with a year-over-year increase of 4.9 percent. At the other end of the spectrum there's the South, where metros in states like Florida and Texas, which have gone through a significant construction boom over the past few years, are reporting annual price drops. Tampa reported the steepest year-over-year price decline in May, at -2.42 percent. It was followed by Dallas and San Francisco both at -0.64 percent, and Denver at -0.01 percent. What Does The Index Tell Us About The State Of The Housing Market While prices are still rising at the national level, it is significant how much slower the pace of their growth has gotten in the past few months. This is happening mostly because the U.S. housing market has reached a breaking point in terms of affordability: even as demand remains high and millions of Americans dream of homeownership, many just cannot afford it at the moment. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still hovering near the 7 percent mark, and experts do not expect rates to get lower than 6 percent any time soon. Property taxes are much higher than they used to be five years ago, and home insurance premiums are rising as the threat of natural disasters grows with climate change. Buyers' reluctance to engage in the market, which has been exacerbated by recent fears over the direction taken by the U.S. economy under the helm of President Donald Trump, has caused a pileup of unsold homes across the country—especially in areas where developers have built more new homes. This shrinking of demand is likely to lead to a normalization of the U.S. market after years of overheating, experts say—but low inventory across the country has been keeping prices up so far. Things may change as a result of a bipartisan housing package just moving through the legislature right now. Under the ROAD to Housing Act, lawmakers on both sides of the political spectrum are trying to boost the country's home supply and improve affordability.
NBC News
24-06-2025
- Business
- NBC News
Home price hikes are slowing more than expected
Rising supply and slowing demand in the housing market are finally causing prices to cool off, and the weakness is accelerating. Home prices nationally rose just 2.7% in April compared with the previous year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday. That is down from a 3.4% annual increase in March and is the smallest gain in nearly two years. The report is slightly backdated, as it is a three-month running average of prices ended in April. Other more current readings of the market, such as one from Parcl Labs, shows prices nationally are now flat compared with a year ago. S&P Case-Shiller found the deceleration in prices was taking hold across the 10- and 20-city composites its index measures. Both are now substantially below their recent peaks. In addition, much of the annual increase in the April reading occurred in just the past six months, meaning prices got a boost from the spring market rather than showing up throughout the year. 'What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor,' said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. New York saw the biggest increase in prices, with a 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 6% and Detroit at 5.5%. This is a shift from the first years of the pandemic, when the Sun Belt was seeing huge demand and big price gains. Prices in those previously hot markets are now falling. Both Tampa, Florida, and Dallas turned negative, down 2.2% and 0.2%, respectively. San Francisco prices were basically flat, and both Phoenix and Miami eked out gains of just over 1%. Higher mortgage rates, which shot over 7% in April and have settled back just under that mark since then, are keeping potential monthly payments near generational highs and pricing out significant pools of buyers, especially first-timers. That share dropped to just 30% of May sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers historically make up 40% of the market. The supply of homes for sale is rising sharply, but is still below pre-pandemic levels. Just 6% of sellers are at risk of selling at a loss, according to a new report from Redfin. That is slightly higher than a year ago, but still historically low. While prices are certainly weakening, they are nowhere close to being at risk of the major declines last seen following the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession over a decade ago. 'Housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared,' said Godec.
CNBC
24-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Home price hikes are slowing more than expected
Rising supply and slowing demand in the housing market are finally causing prices to cool off, and the weakness is accelerating. Home prices nationally rose just 2.7% in April compared with the previous year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday. That is down from a 3.4% annual increase in March and is the smallest gain in nearly two years. The report is slightly back-dated, as it is a three-month running average of prices ending in April. Other more current readings of the market, such as one from Parcl Labs, shows prices nationally are now flat compared with a year ago. S&P Case-Shiller found the deceleration in prices was taking hold across the 10- and 20-city composites its index measures. Both are now substantially below their recent peaks. In addition, much of the annual increase in the April reading occurred in just the past six months, meaning prices got a boost from the spring market rather than showing up throughout the year. "What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor," said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. New York saw the biggest increase in prices, with a 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 6% and Detroit at 5.5%. This is a shift from the first years of the pandemic, when the Sun Belt was seeing huge demand and big price gains. Prices in those previously hot markets are now falling. Both Tampa and Dallas turned negative, down 2.2% and 0.2% respectively. San Francisco prices were basically flat, and both Phoenix and Miami eked out gains of just over 1%. Higher mortgage rates, which shot over 7% in April and have settled back just under that mark since then, are keeping potential monthly payments near generational highs and pricing out significant pools of buyers, especially first-timers. That share dropped to just 30% of May sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers historically make up 40% of the market. The supply of homes for sale is rising sharply, but is still below pre-pandemic levels. Just 6% of sellers are at risk of selling at a loss, according to a new report from Redfin. That is slightly higher than a year ago, but still historically low. While prices are certainly weakening, they are nowhere close to being at risk of the major declines last seen following the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession over a decade ago. "Housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared," said Godec.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX RECORDS 2.7% ANNUAL GAIN IN APRIL 2025
NEW YORK, June 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the April 2025 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 2.7% annual gain in April 2025, a slight decrease from the previous reading in March 2025. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.7% annual return for April, down from a 3.4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.8% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, down from a 4.1% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.9% increase in April, followed by Chicago and Detroit with annual increases of 6.0% and 5.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%. MONTH-OVER-MONTH The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw slight upward trends in April, posting gains of 0.6%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices both reported gains of 0.7%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.4%. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices saw a -0.3% decrease. ANALYSIS "The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their most modest pace in nearly two years," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor. "The National Composite Index posted a 2.7% annual gain in April, marking its slowest year-over-year appreciation since mid-2023. This deceleration was broad-based, with the 20-City Composite advancing 3.4% and the 10-City Composite up 4.1%—both substantially below their recent peaks. The composition of these gains tells an important story: Approximately 1.7 percentage points of April's annual increase occurred over the past six months, indicating that price momentum has been concentrated in the recent spring selling season rather than sustained throughout the year. "Regional performance revealed a dramatic shift from pandemic-era patterns. New York led all metros with a robust 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago (6.0%) and Detroit (5.5%)—a lineup that would have been unthinkable during the height of the Sun Belt surge. Meanwhile, former leaders stumbled: Tampa fell 2.2% year-over-year and Dallas turned negative at -0.2%, becoming the only two metros to post annual declines. San Francisco managed just 0.2% growth, while Phoenix (+1.3%) and Miami (+1.4%) barely registered gains. This geographic rotation reflects the fundamental economics now driving the market: Affordability constraints have hit previously overheated markets hardest, while traditionally stable markets with more reasonable price levels are attracting renewed interest. "April's monthly performance showed continued seasonal strength but with notable cooling from March's peak. Eighteen metros posted positive monthly gains before seasonal adjustment, led by Detroit (+1.5%), Boston (+1.5%), and New York (+1.2%). However, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index actually declined 0.4%, suggesting that April's 0.6% raw gain was weaker than typical spring patterns would predict. This divergence between raw and seasonally adjusted figures hints that the market's seasonal rhythms may be dampening as affordability pressures intensify. "The underlying market dynamics remain challenging but not dire. Mortgage rates sustained their mid-6% range throughout April, keeping monthly payment burdens near generational highs and effectively pricing out significant segments of potential buyers. Yet housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared. "We're witnessing a housing market in transition," Godec concluded. "The era of broad-based, rapid price appreciation appears over, replaced by a more selective environment where local fundamentals matter more than national trends. For investors and policymakers alike, this shift toward geographic divergence and moderate growth may actually represent a healthier, more sustainable trajectory than the unsustainable boom we experienced just a few years ago." SUPPORTING DATA Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current Index Level Date Level Date From Peak (%) Level From Trough (%) From Peak (%) National 184.61 Jul-06 133.99 Feb-12 -27.4 % 329.61 146.0 % 78.5 % 20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1 % 341.48 154.7 % 65.3 % 10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3 % 361.38 146.8 % 59.7 % Table 2 below summarizes the results for April 2025. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source 2025 April/March March/February 1-Year Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%) Atlanta 250.71 0.7 % 0.9 % 2.1 % Boston 348.64 1.5 % 0.7 % 3.9 % Charlotte 283.96 1.0 % 0.7 % 2.4 % Chicago 217.55 1.2 % 1.1 % 6.0 % Cleveland 198.71 1.0 % 1.8 % 5.2 % Dallas 297.98 0.8 % 0.5 % -0.2 % Denver 322.08 0.7 % 1.1 % 0.7 % Detroit 195.37 1.5 % 1.1 % 5.5 % Las Vegas 304.60 0.6 % 0.7 % 4.1 % Los Angeles 450.90 -0.1 % 1.4 % 2.5 % Miami 442.86 0.5 % -0.2 % 1.4 % Minneapolis 244.15 0.9 % 1.1 % 2.4 % New York 330.24 1.2 % 1.6 % 7.9 % Phoenix 330.69 0.0 % 0.2 % 1.3 % Portland 333.28 0.4 % 0.8 % 0.8 % San Diego 447.78 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.0 % San Francisco 363.50 0.5 % 1.1 % 0.2 % Seattle 402.33 1.0 % 1.8 % 3.0 % Tampa 375.94 0.7 % -0.3 % -2.2 % Washington 339.65 0.9 % 1.4 % 4.3 % Composite-10 361.38 0.7 % 1.2 % 4.1 % Composite-20 341.48 0.7 % 1.1 % 3.4 % U.S. National 329.61 0.6 % 0.8 % 2.7 % Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through April 2025Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are Change (%) March/February Change (%) Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA Atlanta 0.7 % -0.1 % 0.9 % 0.0 % Boston 1.5 % -0.4 % 0.7 % -0.6 % Charlotte 1.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 % -0.2 % Chicago 1.2 % 0.3 % 1.1 % 0.3 % Cleveland 1.0 % 0.3 % 1.8 % 0.7 % Dallas 0.8 % -0.6 % 0.5 % -0.8 % Denver 0.7 % -0.8 % 1.1 % -0.8 % Detroit 1.5 % 0.1 % 1.1 % 0.2 % Las Vegas 0.6 % -0.2 % 0.7 % -0.1 % Los Angeles -0.1 % -1.1 % 1.4 % -0.1 % Miami 0.5 % -0.2 % -0.2 % -0.7 % Minneapolis 0.9 % -0.4 % 1.1 % -0.1 % New York 1.2 % 0.6 % 1.6 % 1.0 % Phoenix 0.0 % -0.9 % 0.2 % -0.6 % Portland 0.4 % -0.8 % 0.8 % -0.7 % San Diego 0.7 % -0.6 % 1.0 % -0.9 % San Francisco 0.5 % -1.2 % 1.1 % -1.5 % Seattle 1.0 % -0.9 % 1.8 % -0.7 % Tampa 0.7 % 0.0 % -0.3 % -1.1 % Washington 0.9 % -0.1 % 1.4 % 0.0 % Composite-10 0.7 % -0.3 % 1.2 % 0.0 % Composite-20 0.7 % -0.3 % 1.1 % -0.2 % U.S. National 0.6 % -0.4 % 0.8 % -0.3 % Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through April 2025For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing indices across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets. S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit FOR MORE INFORMATION: Alyssa AugustynCommunications ManagerNew York, USA+1 S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market. These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic. Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. View original content: SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
