Latest news with #NickGerli
Newsweek
4 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Over 1 Million Homes for Sale Across US as Inventory Piles Up
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. The number of homes for sale in the U.S. market has just passed the 1 million mark, according to data from and Reventure App, as inventory continues piling up in the market without finding enough willing buyers. Why It Matters Before the pandemic, in May 2019, there were 1,180,934 active listings on the U.S. market, according to and Reventure App data. During the pandemic homebuying frenzy, spurred by historically low mortgage rates and the rise of remote work, U.S. housing inventory plunged to 447,670 in May 2021—a shortage that brought up prices for the few homes available on the market. Since then, inventory crawled back up slowly, but it has never been as high as it is now: last month was the first May since 2019 when active listings were above the 1 million mark. At 1,036,101, however, they are still below pre-pandemic levels. This surge in the number of homes for sale is putting significant downward pressure on home prices, which some experts now expect to fall by the end of the year. A home is seen for sale on April 24, 2025, in Austin, Texas. A home is seen for sale on April 24, 2025, in Austin, To Know A chronic lack of inventory, partially due to the fact that homebuilders in the U.S. significantly underbuilt in the years following the 2008 crash, contributed to bringing U.S. home prices through the roof in recent years. Over the past five years, U.S. home values have surged by on average 8 to 9 percent per year, on average, according to Zillow data. The pace of this vertiginous home price growth, however, has started slowing down this year thanks to rising inventory. Active listings have been growing over the past few months in part because of the new homes landing on the market, and in part because existing homeowners who were waiting for mortgage rates to come down to sell their homes have resigned to the fact that it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Many of these sellers, especially those who bought their properties during the pandemic, are hoping to sell their homes at the same price they purchased them during the homebuying frenzy of 2020-2022. But the market is not the same: buyers are being kept to the sidelines by historically high prices and elevated mortgage rates, while growing economic uncertainty is making them question whether this is a good time for such a big purchase at all. The result is that "excess inventory is piling up," Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of Reventure App, wrote on X. "Relative to buyer demand, we now have the highest inventory in close to a decade, which is causing home prices to drop in over half the U.S." According to Reventure App, more than 60 percent of all U.S. counties reported month-over-month price drops in May. Meanwhile, Redfin reported that sellers currently outnumber buyers in the U.S. housing market by about 500,000. This imbalance is forcing sellers to slash prices to attract cautious buyers, readjusting their price expectations significantly in an effort to get their properties off the market. According to Reventure App, the number of sellers cutting their original listed price was up by 24.6 percent in May compared to a year earlier. "That's the highest level of price reductions for the month of May on record, going back to 2017," he said. Despite the dynamics at play, home prices are still historically high compared to pre-pandemic levels—but they are starting to come down. In late May, reported the first year-over-year drop in the price of a typical U.S. home since mid-March, down by 1.1 percent. What People Are Saying Gerli wrote on X of rising inventory levels: "This is important because it signals that sellers are now facing stiff competition to sell their homes. A marked reversal from the pandemic boom, and a signal that gains in affordability are coming for buyers." economist Jake Krimmel said in a recent press release: "The momentum that began earlier this spring remains strong, signaling a vibrant market as we head into late spring and early summer. With more fresh inventory hitting the market, buyers have better opportunities to find a home that fits their needs." Matt Purdy, a Redfin Premier agent in Denver, Colorado, said in a recent press release: "A huge pop of listings hit the market at the start of spring, and there weren't enough buyers to go around. House hunters are only buying if they absolutely have to, and even serious buyers are backing out of contracts more than they used to. Buyers have a window to get a deal; there's still a surplus of inventory on the market, with sellers facing reality and willing to negotiate prices down." What Happens Next Homebuyers might be struggling to notice that the U.S. housing market has turned in their favor. Mortgage rates are still historically high, hovering near the 7 percent mark, and home prices are still thousands of dollars higher than they were in 2019. Additionally, despite recent efforts to ramp up construction, especially in Florida and Texas, there is still a housing gap of 3.8 million homes in the country, according to estimates. At the pace of construction experienced in 2024, it would take 7.5 years to close this gap. The existing housing shortage is a lot more acute in the Northeast than in the South, which is likely to see less significant price changes than areas which are seeing a bigger growth in inventory. Redfin currently expects home prices to fall by an average 1 percent at the national level by the end of 2025.
Newsweek
7 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Florida's Housing Market 'Turning Down Fast'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Florida housing market is "turning down fast," according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, as sellers are increasingly offering reluctant buyers dramatic price cuts to convince them to close a purchase. Gerli, founder and CEO of real-estate platform Reventure, shared on X, formerly Twitter, late last month, a Zillow listing of a home in Saint Petersburg, Florida, which was bought by an investor in 2022—the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic homebuying frenzy—for a staggering $550,000 and sold again in late March for a much more reasonable $391,000. "Twenty-eight percent loss in three years," Gerli wrote in his post. Why It Matters The Sunshine State's housing market exploded during the pandemic, when the rise of remote work enabled many out-of-state movers to relocate to more affordable parts of the country offering a better quality of life than the country's busiest metropolises. The newcomers rapidly increased demand as well as prices across Florida, investors flocked to the state chasing what at the time seemed like sure-fire opportunities, and builders received authorization for building thousands of new homes to keep up with buyers. But Florida's once red-hot housing market started showing signs of a significant cooldown over the past year, as domestic migration shrank compared to the pandemic boom, housing costs rose sharply, and the threat of more frequent, more severe natural disasters and higher home insurance premiums swayed some buyers away from the state. The result is that prices have started to drop across much of the state, as historically high mortgage rates are still putting a significant damper on demand, despite growing inventory giving buyers more options. The median sale price of a home in Florida in April, according to Redfin, was $409,900, down 3.2 percent from a year earlier. Home sales were down 8.8 percent from April 2024, at 33,667. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty What To Know Gerli pointed at a home listing in Saint Petersburg as a glaring example of the dynamics unfolding in the state. The property, a three-bedroom home built in 1960 and sitting on 1,703 square feet of land, is estimated by Zillow to be worth about $386,800, having risen in value by 157 percent in the past 10 years. According to the property's price history, the home was sold in July 1999 for $93,000 and then again in December 2021 for $255,000. At the peak of the pandemic homebuying frenzy, in March 2022, it was listed for sale for $499,900, but the listing was later removed. The property was listed and sold again in April 2022 for an even higher price tag—$550,000—to a Blackstone-owned entity, according to Gerli. The new owner then listed it for sale again in February 2024 for a lower price, $529,000 and then offered four different price cuts in the following months. The listing was removed and reposted several times, until the home was sold on March 21, 2025 for $391,000—a drop of nearly $160,000 from the amount it fetched in 2022. "The house sat on the market for a year, and they incrementally lowered the price until finally it sold," Gerli said. According to the analyst, there was no clear issue with the property. "This does not appear to be a hurricane-damaged property, as they had already cut the price down to $431K (22-percent loss from purchase) before the hurricanes hit," he wrote on X. "After the hurricane hit, the price went down another $40K (7 percent)." For Gerli, the fate of this home in Saint Petersburg shows what can happen when investors get involved in a market, contributing to its overheating and then its downturn. "Investors had a huge impact in driving the Florida real estate bubble during the pandemic boom years of 2020 and 2021," he told Newsweek. Gerli added: "In markets like Jacksonville and Orlando, investor purchases nearly doubled from the pre-pandemic norm. Since then, they have collapsed by 50-60 percent from peak, leaving a gaping hole in the market. Many investors are now also electing to sell, particularly big Wall Street Investors, because the economics of owning real estate in Florida no longer make sense due to stagnating rents and skyrocketing insurance costs." On X, he wrote: "Imagine being a neighbor on this street, and getting excited about how much the value of your neighborhood was increasing. Only to now look at the new sales comp, and realize that the marginal buyer is now paying 28 percent less than three years ago. This is what investors do. Make the boom bigger on the way up, but the crash bigger on the way down." According to Gerli, investors are backing out of Florida for three main reasons—including high interest rates, rising housing costs and falling rents. "Higher interest rates significantly increased the cost of capital for investors, who almost always use debt to finance their acquisitions. Higher debt costs mean it's difficult to earn cash flow, making owning real estate a less attractive option," he said. "Second are the costs of holding real estate in Florida. Both property tax and insurance rates have skyrocketed in Florida over the last three years, further hurting investor margins and lowering the incentive to buy," he added. Gerli continued: "Third is the rental market. Rents in many areas of Florida are now dropping on a year-over-year basis, which makes the whole thesis of owning cash-flow driven real estate hard to justify, especially in market that is in a bubble like Florida. Many investors see this as their last chance to sell out before the prices and rents drop further." What Happens Next According to Gerli and most housing experts who talked with Newsweek, what is happening in Florida is the natural correction that you would expect to follow years of overheating. Many locals in the Sunshine State have been priced out of the market in recent years, and without investors buying up properties, demand has naturally come down. Investors backing off the market could exacerbate these dynamics, accelerating downward pressure on prices and forcing other sellers to slash prices to sell their homes. "Investors rushing to the exits is already destabilizing the market in Florida and making the downturn worse," Gerli told Newsweek. "In some neighborhoods around Tampa and St. Petersburg, there are examples of investors selling houses at 20-25 percent losses from their purchase price in 2022. These sales are now entering the comps and significantly lowering the values of homes in the surrounding area."
Newsweek
29-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Housing Market Expert Sees 'Alarming' Trend
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A real estate analyst has sounded the alarm about a new trend that could weaken housing markets across the United States. "The collapse in investor demand in the U.S. Housing Market is alarming," Nick Gerli, the CEO of the Reventure app, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "In a market like Atlanta, investors are buying 65% fewer homes than they did at the peak of the pandemic." In the markets affected by fewer investor purchases, housing inventory and supply are skyrocketing. This can cause home values to drop in many of the markets on a month-to-month basis, Gerli said. Why It Matters Monthly home values have already dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year, according to Zillow. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California, and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger shift in the housing market. Investor buying could play a significant role in determining home prices, depending on the market, and sellers may soon find themselves in a challenging situation. What To Know Beyond Atlanta, Gerli said investors are abandoning other markets, including Jacksonville, Phoenix, Charlotte, Nashville, Miami and Denver. While Jacksonville saw investors buying down by 63 percent, Charlotte experienced a 61 percent decline, and Nashville saw a similar 59 percent decline. "The issue with investors in the housing market is that they tend to 'amplify' whatever the current market trends are," Gerli said. "If there is a bubble, investors will make the bubble bigger, bringing in external capital into a local housing market that should be dependent on local buyers. "Meanwhile, in a crash or downturn, investors tend to make the situation worse. Leaving the market in droves before the crash gets worse." A real estate sign in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. A real estate sign in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, has seen this trend in his market region of Fort Worth, Texas. "There were multiple homes purchased during the new build process by an investment group, and they have been left vacant for months," Thompson told Newsweek. "We are starting to see renters come back in as of now, but those places were vacant for at least six months which can be a large cash outlay for those companies. They were even trying to sell the properties outright, yet the market is just so tight at the moment." What People Are Saying Nick Gerli, the CEO of the Reventure app, wrote on X: "Home values in many of these markets boomed during the pandemic, as a result of the huge spike in investor demand. So what happens to home values when this demand goes away, and when these investors sell? I believe we're starting to see the answer." Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "While lower demand from investors in some housing markets may be seen as a worrying sign, it actually could be a good thing for potential buyers in the coming months and years. Less demand for housing from the portfolios of some investors will equate to more availability, particularly in markets like Atlanta, Jacksonville, and others that have seen a substantial decline." Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of told Newsweek: "When I see headlines calling this 'alarming,' I'm for who exactly? For the investment firms that got caught holding overpriced assets when the music stopped? Or for my oldest son, who might finally be able to afford a home? "It's not a crisis, it's a housing market correction that's been a long time coming. And frankly, it can't happen fast enough." What Happens Next While a lack or reduction in investor demand may be a key factor in a potential housing crash, homebuyers are likely to benefit from the trend in the coming months, Beene said. "While in the past less investor demand has assisted in housing crashes going deeper, pricing remains strong, as most sellers and builders are offering smaller discounts instead of dramatically dropping prices," Beene said.
Newsweek
20-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Map Shows Home Values Dropping in Half the Country as Housing Market Shifts
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Home values shot down in half the country as the housing market faces a nationwide downturn. According to Zillow, monthly home values dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger housing market shift. Why It Matters The low inventory in the U.S. housing market has pushed prices upward in recent years. But as markets across the country now note an uptick in inventory, home values are coming down. Still, many potential homebuyers have been priced out of the market due to historically high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. What To Know The Zillow data revealed that real estate prices were shifting downward in more than just a few markets. While the post-pandemic era brought lower prices to Texas and Florida markets due to higher inventory and lower demand, home values across the country reflect a shifting market. Behind Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state, which saw the most notable decreases in value this past year, were Arizona, Louisiana, West Virginia, Texas and Georgia. These states saw as much as 0.37 percent decreases in home values, while Florida saw the worst value loss at 0.55 percent. "The broadening of this housing decline suggests there's a shift occurring in the U.S. Housing Market right now," Nick Gerli, founder and CEO of the real estate Reventure app, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday. "Inventory is starting to rise in most parts of the country, and sellers are beginning to wake up to the fact that prices are overvalued, and they need to cut." Even states like California, where home prices have historically been some of the highest and demand continues to surge, experienced some course correction in home values. While values are up 1.3 percent over the last year, California home prices dropped 0.42 percent in the last month alone. "I think this data holds key implications for housing market analysts, homebuyers, and investors in 2025," Gerli said. "The question isn't becoming 'if' prices will drop. But rather: where the drops are occurring. And by how much." A "For Sale" sign is displayed in front of a home on February 22, 2023, in Miami. A "For Sale" sign is displayed in front of a home on February 22, 2023, in People Are Saying Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: "Housing prices have declined due to their rapid rise after the pandemic. The economic shift from migration out of the West to now, a slowing of that same migration and overbuilding in places like Austin, TX, is now seeing an equilibrium shift downward. The median cost of homes rose sharply coming out of the pandemic, and that rise was unsustainable." Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst with told Newsweek: "This summer's housing market is expected to display familiar seasonal patterns, such as increased home sales and rising prices, but overall activity may remain subdued as buyers contend with elevated housing costs and lingering economic uncertainty. In regions like the South, where inventory is more abundant, these conditions could entice some buyers to enter the market." "Still, persistently high mortgage rates mean affordability remains top of mind, and many shoppers will be looking for more bang for their buck. Builders have pivoted toward offering smaller, more affordable homes and a range of incentives to entice buyers, but this strategy may be tested if the cost of construction inputs continues to rise." Michael Ryan, finance expert and founder of told Newsweek: "It's fascinating how we've gone from "your home is worth what?!" to "reality check" territory now. The housing market isn't crashing dramatically, more like it's finally coming back down to earth from a sugar high." Nationwide title and escrow expert Alan Chang told Newsweek: "For the last few years, I have been saying that property values have been at an unsustainable growth trajectory. It appears that portions of the market have started to correct themselves. I also believe that sellers are starting to ask a more realistic sales price as they see time on market being longer than what was seen a year or two ago. I don't see this as a housing crash like some have, but more of a normalization of the market." Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "Over the past two years, we've seen a major shift in the housing markets of certain cities and states that enjoyed a significant increase in purchases during the pandemic. As people have relocated due to "back to office" decisions, we've seen an exodus from some of those locations. Subsequently, the high prices and interest rates of homes are keeping many potential buyers out of the marketplace. It's a bad combination of factors that are causing housing values to trend downward, even if we have yet to see that impact in home sale values and declining interest rates." What Happens Next While many analysts believe interest rates are the housing market's main problem today, Thompson said prices of homes play a larger role in improving the market. "It is the cost of the homes that remains the issue and prices need to correct to make it more affordable for new buyers. I expect prices to continue to fall while rates remain higher, reaching a level where buyers and sellers can come to a good price in the future," Thompson said. "The timing of that is still up in the air, but it will definitely happen as all markets tend to correct where demand and supply meet." Some markets will continue seeing price drops while others are still growing, Ryan said. "It's not a one-size-fits-all story anymore," Ryan said. "Here in most of Florida, Texas, and Arizona are seeing bigger corrections while places like Charlotte, Denver, and even Miami are still posting gains." Still, on a larger scale, buyers will likely have more choices and "less frantic competition," Ryan said. "And for sellers? Gone are the days when you could slap any old price on your house and expect a bidding war," Ryan said. "Pricing right from the start is crucial now. Overpriced listings are just sitting there collecting dust."
Daily Mail
19-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Panic as major US city's housing boom collapses: Owners rush to sell... prices plummet... and experts warn 'unprecedented' crisis is spreading
It was once at the heart of America's real estate boom - but the city's housing market now faces a complete collapse as residents attempt to flee. The number of homes for sale in Denver has soared to a decade-high, with inventory now 99.6 percent above the long-term average, according to analyst Nick Gerli.
