Latest news with #NickLai
Bangkok Post
5 days ago
- Automotive
- Bangkok Post
Chinese carmakers reduce discounts after Beijing's warning, but no end in sight to price war
Chinese carmakers have refrained from offering steep discounts to align with Beijing's efforts to protect a vital industry, but an end to the prolonged price war remains elusive, as the sector grapples with overcapacity and weak consumer demand for high-ticket items. The average discount offered by mainland Chinese electric vehicle (EV) and petrol car manufacturers fell to 16.7% last month from an unprecedented 17.4% in June, according to a recent JPMorgan report. "This is encouraging, as intense competition - especially after the Shanghai Auto Show in April - sent industry-wide discounts to a record high of over 17% in May, June and early July, the highest since we started tracking pricing trends in China in 2017," said Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan. "However, the root cause of the challenging price environment is overcapacity. We may need to be patient to see a sustainable [and] better price environment in the long term." JPMorgan's data covered 40 foreign and Chinese car brands across 1,000 variants, including imports. In late May, the Chinese government intervened in the automotive market over concerns that fierce price competition could jeopardise the EV sector, where mainland companies lead globally, according to analysts. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned that carmakers initiating price cuts would face penalties, although it did not mention specific measures. Since July, many carmakers have begun to reduce their discounts in response to Beijing's directives, but they remain watchful and may cut prices again to maintain market share, according to car dealers. "Every carmaker wants to stay ahead because the overall market demand is stagnant," said Zhao Zhen, a sales director at Shanghai dealer Wan Zhuo Auto. "Unless the government takes strong actions to prevent price reductions, a new round of discount wars cannot be ruled out." Among the mainland's 50 or so EV manufacturers, only BYD, the world's largest player; Li Auto, Tesla's closest competitor in China; and Aito, backed by telecommunications equipment giant Huawei Technologies, are profitable. Lai said the net profit margin for Chinese carmakers averaged around 4%, compared with 7% to 8% for leading international brands. Fewer than 10% of EV brands in China were expected to turn a profit in the next five years, as their margins faced further pressure from discount wars and chronic overcapacity, global consultancy AlixPartners said last month. Stephen Dyer, Greater China co-leader and head of Asia automotive practice at AlixPartners, said mainland EV manufacturers selling fewer than 1,000 units per month were likely to be pushed out of the market soon. Only half of the nation's EV production capacity - about 20 million units - was used last year, according to Goldman Sachs. "A grim reality is that Chinese consumers are cautious about making large purchases," said Ding Haifeng, a consultant at Shanghai-based financial advisory firm Integrity. "They are inclined to buy cheaper cars, and big discounts appeal to them." He added that EVs priced below 100,000 yuan (450,000 baht) and featuring basic self-driving systems and digital cockpits typically sold well because consumers believed they offered value for money. Still, the market was expected to benefit from buyers seeking to take advantage of tax breaks on new-energy vehicle purchases, which would be phased out by year's end, according to a Fitch Ratings report last week. Currently, mainland buyers are exempt from sales tax on EV purchases. However, starting in January, consumers will be subject to a 5% tax until the end of 2027, after which the tax will increase to 10%.
South China Morning Post
5 days ago
- Automotive
- South China Morning Post
Chinese carmakers reduce discounts after Beijing's warning, but no end in sight to price war
Chinese carmakers have refrained from offering steep discounts to align with Beijing's efforts to protect a vital industry, but an end to the prolonged price war remains elusive, as the sector grapples with overcapacity and weak consumer demand for high-ticket items. The average discount offered by mainland Chinese electric vehicle (EV) and petrol car manufacturers fell to 16.7 per cent last month from an unprecedented 17.4 per cent in June, according to a recent JPMorgan report. 'This is encouraging, as intense competition – especially after the Shanghai Auto Show in April – sent industry-wide discounts to a record high of over 17 per cent in May, June and early July, the highest since we started tracking pricing trends in China in 2017,' said Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan. 'However, the root cause of the challenging price environment is overcapacity. We may need to be patient to see a sustainable [and] better price environment in the long term.' JPMorgan's data covered 40 foreign and Chinese car brands across 1,000 variants, including imports. BYD electric vehicles seen at a car show in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo: Reuters In late May, the Chinese government intervened in the automotive market over concerns that fierce price competition could jeopardise the EV sector, where mainland companies lead globally, according to analysts.
Globe and Mail
29-05-2025
- Automotive
- Globe and Mail
Li Auto (LI) Is About to Report Q1 Earnings. Here's What to Expect
Chinese EV (electric vehicle) maker Li Auto (LI) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of 2025 on Thursday, May 29, 2025. Li Auto stock has risen 20.5% year-to-date, driven by the company's resilient performance despite intense competition and macro challenges in China. Analysts expect Li Auto's Q1 EPS to fall to RMB 0.64 from RMB 1.21 in the prior-year quarter. Further, revenue is expected to decline by 1.5% year over year. While price wars and growth investments are expected to weigh on the company's results over the short term, many analysts are optimistic about Li Auto due to its strong supercharging network, continued innovation, and solid fundamentals. Confident Investing Starts Here: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Ahead of the Q1 results, there have been reports that Li Auto recently cut its 2025 delivery target to 640,000 vehicles from the previous target of 700,000 units amid intense competition and lower-than-anticipated demand for the revamped L6 crossover. While Li Auto's Q1 deliveries increased by 15.5% year-over-year to 92,864 units, the chart below from Main Street Data indicates a slowdown in the growth rate compared to 20.4% in Q4 2024. Analysts' Views Ahead of Li Auto's Q1 Earnings In a preview note on Q1 results of Chinese EV makers, JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai stated that earlier this year, he upgraded Li Auto stock to Buy on the belief that its new models, i8 (July), i6 (around the Guangzhou Auto Show time in November) and i7 (JPMorgan estimates launch in first half of 2026), will drive a turnaround in sales in the BEV (battery electric vehicle) segment, a view which the 4-star analyst said is unchanged. Lai noted that year-to-date, Li Auto stock has moved largely in line with the HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index). That said, given rising competition in the large-SUV space at the Shanghai auto show from players like Huawei, Changan Auto, Lynk, and BYD (BYDDF) and the need to invest in research & development, Lai lowered his 'previously more bullish' forecasts for 2025/26 by about 20-30%. He believes that Q1 2025 will mark the bottom for Li's financial performance this year. Lai reiterated a Buy rating on Li Auto stock but lowered the price target to $33 from $40. Options Traders Anticipate a Notable Move on Li Auto's Q1 Earnings Using TipRanks' Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don't worry, the Options tool does this for you. Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 10% move in either direction in LI stock in reaction to Q1 results. Is Li Auto Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold? Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Li Auto stock based on six Buys and four Holds. The average LI stock price target of $33 implies about 14.2% upside potential. See more LI analyst ratings
Miami Herald
25-05-2025
- Automotive
- Miami Herald
EV Discounts in China Reach Record High With Profits Limited to 3 Automakers
China has recently gained a reputation for offering significant electric vehicle (EV) subsidies, and new figures from April show that the country's discounts reached a record high of 16.8%, up 0.3% from March. While EV discounts are welcomed among drivers, the offers don't appear sustainable, given that few of China's EV makers are profitable. There are around 50 active EV makers in China, the most out of any nation globally. However, only three Chinese EV makers are currently profitable: BYD, Seres, and Li Auto. BYD is the world's largest automaker, Li Auto is Tesla's closest rival on the mainland, and Seres builds AITO-brand intelligent vehicles. AITO vehicles are all-electric and hybrid vehicles with advanced driver assist systems leveraging technology such as LiDAR, HD cameras, ultrasonic radars, and more. Last year, the difference between an EV's selling price and an automaker's production cost dropped from around 20% four years ago to 10%, Carscoops reports. Phate Zhang from CnEVPost said: "Nearly all of them were the victims of price competition. But if any of them chooses to exit the price war, their sales will decline and make it more difficult to post a net income," according to the South China Morning Post. The China Passenger Car Association reported China's average EV discount in 2024 as 8.3%. "Price reflects the balance between supply and demand. Price competition has turned fiercer this year. Unfortunately, we have not seen a jump in [EV] demand so far," Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan, said, according to the South China Morning Post. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) also saw a 10% price cut in December. Additionally, expensive development and marketing costs weigh down many up-and-coming EV brands in China. Lai highlighted strong exports as increasing Chinese EV makers' profits since their vehicles experience bigger margins overseas. During the first four months of 2025, Chinese EVs represented 33% of the country's total auto exports-up around 8% from the last two years, the South China Morning Post reports. In April, BEVs and hybrids were 33% of China's mainland vehicle exports. BYD has differentiated itself in Australia, one of Chinese EV makers' most competitive export destinations, by promoting low-rate finance alongside price cuts, especially for its plug-in hybrid (PHEV) lineup. Domestically, EVs were 43% of China's car sales between January and April, up 2% year-over-year. JPMorgan's financial report forecasts that Chinese EVs will represent 80% of the mainland's auto market by 2030. According to the South China Morning Post, analysts predict that more minor players in China's booming EV market will be acquired by larger rivals over the next two years or forced out altogether. Claire Yuan, director of corporate ratings for China Autos at S&P Global Ratings, said: "With persistent oversupply, the price war will prolong. Carmakers are introducing more low-price models to grab share in the mass market," Nikkei Asia reports. April's top-selling all-electric vehicle in China was the Star Wish sedan from Geely's Galaxy EV brand. A base Star Wish has a range of about 192 miles and is priced at $9,500. Comparatively, Tesla's Model 3 starts at about $32,688 in China. Copyright 2025 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
South China Morning Post
19-05-2025
- Automotive
- South China Morning Post
China's EV price war threatens Nio and Xpeng's plans to stem losses: JPMorgan
The earnings outlook for Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers remains cloudy, as their profit margins further decline amid fierce price competition in the world's largest auto market, according to JPMorgan Chase Advertisement Mainland China's automotive assemblers offered a record high 16.8 per cent average discount last month to sustain their sales growth, compared with 16.3 per cent in March, according to a recent report by the US investment bank. It has been tracking the country's biweekly EV price-change information since 2017. The average discount in 2024 was 8.3 per cent, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That finding exacerbates bearish sentiment about Chinese carmakers' financial performance this year, as most of the EV assemblers have yet to post a profit. 'Price reflects the balance between supply and demand,' said Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan. 'Price competition has turned fiercer this year. Unfortunately, we have not seen a jump in [EV] demand so far.' Data from the JPMorgan report showed that an end to the brutal discount war in China's auto market was not in sight, despite growing calls by Beijing and industry officials to turn away from vicious competition. Advertisement The vehicles tracked by JPMorgan comprise both petrol-driven and electric-powered vehicles.
