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UK twice as likely to have hot summer this year, says Met Office
UK twice as likely to have hot summer this year, says Met Office

The Guardian

time3 days ago

  • Climate
  • The Guardian

UK twice as likely to have hot summer this year, says Met Office

The UK is twice as likely as usual to have a hot summer this year, the Met Office has predicted, warning that there is also an increased risk of heatwaves. The predictions follow the country's sunniest spring on record, with the UK clocking up 630 hours of sunshine since the start of March, in what has also been the driest spring for more than a century. Temperatures soared to 8C above the average for the time of year on Saturday – the last day of meteorological spring – before a potentially hot summer season. Heathrow, in west London, experienced the hottest weather on Saturday, at 26.7C, while levels of grass pollen were very high in the south-east of England. The Met Office said: 'While the current three-month outlook shows an increased chance of a hot summer, the temperature signals for this summer are similar to those for recent years and consistent with our warming climate.' The predictions come from the Met Office's three-month outlook for June, July and August, which provides risk assessments for unusual temperatures, rainfall and wind for government contingency planners and businesses. It is based on an assessment of broad weather patterns across the whole of the UK and factors in recent global weather trends. Nicola Maxey, a spokesperson for the Met Office, said: 'It's not produced as a public forecast for people to look at and work out whether we can have a barbecue in August or a garden party in July. 'At this time of year, global signals influencing UK weather are typically weak,' she added. 'However, consistent with our warming climate and as we have seen over recent years, the current outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures this summer. This is not a guarantee of prolonged hot weather or heatwaves; while we could see more hot days and warm nights than usual, we could also see a mix of cooler days and less extreme warmth.' The outlook shows it is 2.3 times more likely than normal that the UK will be hot over meteorological summer, which begins on 1 June and ends on 31 August. The average temperatures across the UK over those months range from 10-17C, with the south-east of England experiencing the higher averages of 16-17C. This would be in line with a recent trend of unusually hot summers. The last time the UK experienced a 'cool' summer was in 2015. The ongoing extreme marine heatwave in north-west European waters – sea surface temperatures around UK coastlines are 1.5-2.5C warmer than average – may further boost temperatures, although the added warmth and moisture in the air could potentially lead to more intense summer storms. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion The latest outlook also shows the levels of rainfall and wind speed for the next three months are likely to be near average. Many water companies will be hoping for a wet summer to help avoid the need for water usage restrictions. This week, the Environment Agency declared drought status for the north-west of England following the driest start to spring in 69 years, with many reservoirs in the region at historic low levels for the time of year. Summers in the UK have become warmer, wetter and sunnier in recent decades due to climate change, according to the Met Office's State of the UK Climate report. Observations show that extremes of temperature in the UK have been affected much more than average temperature. The number of 'hot' days (28C) more than doubled and 'very hot' days (30C) more than tripled for 2014-23 compared with 1961-90. Extreme weather events such as the 2022 heatwave, when temperatures in England surpassed 40C for the first time, were made more likely by climate change and are expected to become more common in future.

UK weather: Mercury to hit 30C earlier in 2025 than ever before in history says Met Office
UK weather: Mercury to hit 30C earlier in 2025 than ever before in history says Met Office

Daily Mirror

time29-04-2025

  • Climate
  • Daily Mirror

UK weather: Mercury to hit 30C earlier in 2025 than ever before in history says Met Office

With the Met Office predicting highs of 29C on Thursday, Brits could see the temperature reaching 30C at the earliest point in the year since the forecaster's temperature records began back in 1860 As Brits embrace warm and sunny spring weather, temperatures could hit 30C at the earliest point since Met Office records began, the forecaster has said. Currently, highs of 29C are forecast for Thursday at the peak of the warm spell, but warm temperatures on Wednesday could see the 76-year record for the highest April temperature broken. The last record was set in 1949 when temperatures in Camden Square, London, peaked at 19.4C on April 16. Much of southern and central England and Wales are forecast highs of 24C to 26C on Thursday, with the Met Office predicting that highs of 29C could be possible. ‌ ‌ If temperatures exceed this and reach 30C, which the forecaster has said could happen, then it would be the earliest point in the year that the mercury has reached 30C since Met Office temperature records began in 1860. If temperatures exceed 32C then the record for the highest May temperature will be broken on the first of the month - with the existing record standing at 32.8C on May 22, 1922, in Camden Square. Met Office chief meteorologist Paul Gundersen said: "It is not particularly unusual to see warm and sunny periods in April where temperatures reach the mid-20s. This has occurred as recently as 2018 and 2019, for example. "However, it is more unusual to see temperatures reach the high-20s, and if we see 30C this week, it will be the earliest point in the year in which we have achieved that threshold." Nicola Maxey, Met Office press officer, said: "As high temperature continues to dominate the UK weather we will see the temperatures building day on day through the week with Thursday seeing the peak of the heat with 29C or even a chance we could see 30C. Friday temperatures will start to dip across much of the UK as the high pressure starts to pull away." The latest weather maps show temperatures peaking at 26C in London and the south east of England on Thursday, with warm weather spread across much of England and Wales. Brits from Southampton up as far north as Newcastle will enjoy warm sunshine on Thursday as temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid-20s and predictions of 29C from the Met Office. ‌ But one region is set to miss out on the best of the weather before things start to cool down again. Those in the south west of the country, mainly Cornwall but also parts of Devon, will see highs of just 16C on Thursday at 3pm, while areas in the Pennines and Scottish borders are set for just 14C. Chief Meterologist Jason Kelly said: "Thursday looks set to be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures climbing notably above the seasonal average. Overnight temperatures will also be very high in places. ‌ "It's possible national and station records for daytime and overnight temperatures may be broken, but it's unclear at this point whether heatwave criteria will be reached; if this happens, it is most likely in some of the lower category areas which require temperatures to reach 25C or above for three consecutive days. The far north will always see cooler conditions, with these more seasonal temperatures likely spreading erratically south later in the week.' The current Met Office forecast for Thursday to Saturday, marking the start of May, reads: "A very warm and sunny day on Thursday. An increased risk of some heavy showers or thunderstorms from Friday, otherwise dry and bright for most. Turning cooler by the weekend." In a tweet, the Met Office explained the unseasonably warm weather, saying: "A broad area of high pressure is currently positioned over the UK, leading to sinking air that warms as it descends. Combined with prolonged sunshine, this is expected to push temperatures up to 29C in southern areas by Thursday."

Britain bakes in a heatwave: Temperatures could hit record 30C as maps reveal where will be hotter than parts of Greece and Spain
Britain bakes in a heatwave: Temperatures could hit record 30C as maps reveal where will be hotter than parts of Greece and Spain

Daily Mail​

time29-04-2025

  • Climate
  • Daily Mail​

Britain bakes in a heatwave: Temperatures could hit record 30C as maps reveal where will be hotter than parts of Greece and Spain

Britons basked in more warm weather today amid forecasts that UK temperatures could hit 30C at the earliest point in the year on record this Thursday. Sunbathers enjoyed the beautiful conditions in parks, beaches and riversides today, with parts of southern and central England expected to get up to 26C (79F). The Met Office said warm weather will continue tomorrow, with highs of 27C (81F) in London - before temperatures could rise to 30C (86F) in some places on Thursday. In comparison, Greece will see 26C (77F) in Corfu, 22C (72F) in Athens and 17C (63F) in Crete; while Spain will get to 22C (72F) in Barcelona and 19C (66F) in Ibiza. It will even be warmer than the Canary Islands, with 25C (77F) in Lanzarote and Tenerife. Forecasters said the period could officially be deemed a 'heatwave' if the mercury reaches 25C (77F) today, tomorrow and on Thursday in certain parts of the UK. Conditions are far warmer than normal for this time of year, with late April average temperatures around 12C (54F) for Scotland and 16C (61F) for southern England. Yesterday was also the UK's hottest day of the year so far with 24.5C (76.1F) recorded at St James's Park in London – although that record could be broken again today. If 27C (81F) is reached by tomorrow, it would be the hottest April weather since 2018. Unseasonably mild nights are also ahead for parts of the UK, with minimum temperatures not expected to fall below 14C (57F) in the South West tonight. Last night, several areas of northern Scotland recorded their highest April minimum temperatures on record – including Kinloss in the Highlands at 12.6C (54.7F). Met Office chief meteorologist Paul Gundersen said: 'It is not particularly unusual to see warm and sunny periods in April where temperatures reach the mid-20s. 'This has occurred as recently as 2018 and 2019, for example. However, it is more unusual to see temperatures reach the high-20s, and if we see 30C (86F) this week, it will be the earliest point in the year in which we have achieved that threshold.' Nicola Maxey, press officer at the Met Office, said: 'As high pressure continues to dominate the UK weather we will see the temperatures building day on day through the week with Thursday seeing the peak of the heat with 29C (84F) or even a chance we could see 30C (86F). 'Friday temperatures will start to dip across much of the UK as the high pressure starts to pull away.' The highest recorded April temperature was in 1949, when Camden Square in London recorded 29.4C (84.9F). For May, the highest temperature recorded was 32.8C (91.0F) on May 22, 1922, also in Camden Square. There is a possibility the UK could see heatwave conditions this week, if temperatures reached 25C (77F) today, tomorrow and on Thursday, the forecaster said. According to the Met Office, the definition of a heatwave is three consecutive days of temperatures exceeding the 'heatwave threshold', which varies across the country. The threshold is 25C (77F) for most of the UK, with slightly higher numbers for the South and East, and rising to 28C (84F) in London. Warnings were also issued by the weather service over high levels of pollen and ultraviolet (UV) rays. Prolonged exposure to UV rays, emitted by the sun, can lead to sunburn and an increased risk of skin cancer. People can protect themselves by wearing at least factor 30 sunscreen, spending regular time in the shade and wearing suitable clothing, according to NHS guidance. Those who suffer from pollen allergies should try to keep the particles out of their eyes, face and hair by staying indoors if they can, or by wearing a mask and hat when outside, medical charity Allergy UK said. Will UK technically see a 'heatwave' this week? The Met Office definition of a heatwave is three consecutive days of temperatures exceeding the 'heatwave threshold', which varies across the country. The threshold is 25C (77F) for most of the UK, with slightly higher numbers for the South and East, and rising to 28C (84F) in London. There is a therefore possibility the UK could see heatwave conditions this week, if temperatures reached 25C (77F) today, tomorrow and on Thursday. They are also advised to shower and wash their hair regularly, and to remove the top layer of clothing when coming indoors. The London Fire Brigade (LFB) urged caution around open-water swimming after last month saw a 32 per cent increase in water-related incidents compared with the same period last year. Craig Carter, LFB assistant commissioner for prevention and protection, said: 'Even when the sun is shining, water temperatures can be dangerously cold. Cold water shock can affect anyone, no matter how fit or experienced they are. 'It can lead to water inhalation and, in the worst cases, drowning. Be particularly careful near the water's edge, it's easy to slip and fall unexpectedly. 'And think twice before jumping into open water.' In the first quarter of 2025, LFB crews responded to 160 water-related incidents, averaging more than 13 per week compared with fewer than 11 a week in 2024, the LFB said. There may also be an increased risk of wildfires as the warm temperatures follow a spell of dry weather in April and March, the Met Office warned. Gareth Morrison, Head of Water Safety for the RNLI said: 'With the warm weather forecast this week, we want to remind everyone to stay safe when visiting the coast. 'Whilst the air temperature will be high, water temperature remain dangerously cold. If possible, choose a lifeguarded beach and swim between the red and yellow flags. A paddleboarder enjoys the morning sunshine on the sea at Dover in Kent today 'If you get into trouble in the water, Float to Live; tilt your head back with ears submerged and try to relax and control your breathing. 'Use your hands to help you stay afloat and then call for help or swim to safety if you can. It's OK if your legs sink, we all float differently. In any coastal emergency, call 999 and ask for the Coastguard.' Pet owners were also urged to think about their animals in the hot weather. Dr Elizabeth Mullineaux, president of the British Veterinary Association, said: 'Like us, animals also struggle when temperatures soar. Each year, vets see pets suffering from heat-related problems and illnesses, such as heatstroke, breathing problems, burnt paw pads and sunburn. 'Remember, be sure your animals have access to fresh drinking water, good ventilation and shade from direct sunlight at all times in the summer.' Two people enjoy the morning sunshine on the beach at Dover in Kent today A paddleboarder enjoys the morning sunshine on the sea at Dover in Kent today A paddleboarder enjoys the morning sunshine on the sea at Dover in Kent today Temperatures will start to fall from Friday with 25C (77F) being a likely maximum, although the Met Office said the South East may remain warmer than this for a time. Mike Childs, Friends Of The Earth head of policy, warned that heatwaves will become 'far more frequent and more intense as climate change takes hold'. 'The UK also needs to go further and faster to cut its emissions,' he said. 'A new climate action plan is due in October, and ministers must seize the enormous opportunities this will bring. 'As well as getting UK climate targets back on track, it will also cut bills, create new jobs, insulate our heat-leaking homes - and put the UK at the forefront of helping to fix our broken planet.'

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