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Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market may stay range-bound amid rich valuations and global uncertainty, warns Kotak
The Indian stock market has been trading in a consolidation range for the past few weeks, and this range-bound movement is expected to persist in the coming months. According to domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities, rich valuations, ongoing weakness in domestic consumption and investment demand, along with global geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, may keep the Indian stock market range-bound over the next few months. The brokerage notes that expensive valuations across sectors and stocks, domestic growth headwinds across consumption, investment, and outsourcing sectors, and global growth and inflation challenges are likely to act as headwinds for the Indian stock market. Kotak finds that valuations have remained elevated across several sectors and stocks despite meaningful earnings downgrades. This, as per the brokerage, suggests that the market does not care about valuations and/or the market does not care about earnings. "In our view, this nonchalant attitude perhaps reflects the market's confidence in retail investors sustaining their hitherto price-agnostic purchases of stocks through mutual funds and FPIs staying positive on Indian equities based on a 'narrative' of a lack of alternatives in EMs," said the brokerage. At a broader level, Kotak's analysis shows that valuations are higher than pre-pandemic levels despite significantly elevated risks to global growth and inflation, higher global interest rates and bond yields, domestic growth and profitability challenges for most sectors in the short term, and significantly higher medium-term disruption risks arising from increased competition and structural changes. Kotak sees a few positives for the Indian economy in the form of lower interest rates and low commodity prices, which could support higher government and/or household savings. Nonetheless, it ruled out a strong economic recovery due to ongoing challenges to consumption demand from inadequate creation of good-quality jobs, a slowdown in investment demand (likely flat government capex, weaker residential real estate sales, and no signs of recovery in private capex), and headwinds to exports/outsourcing from an uncertain global environment and slowing global growth. According to the brokerage, the net income of the Nifty-50 Index in the March quarter grew 3.7%, which was 3.8% above its expectation. Net income of its coverage universe grew 8.2%, compared to its expectation of a 0.8% increase. Kotak identified that the beat was led by banks (notably SBI), downstream oil marketing companies (due to unexpectedly high gross refining margins), and higher-than-expected other income. The EBITDA of the Nifty-50 Index during the quarter improved by 9.2%, compared to its expectation of 10.2%, while EBITDA of its coverage universe grew 11.2%, versus an expected 8.3% increase. For FY2025, net income and EBITDA of the Nifty-50 Index grew by 6.4% and 4.5%, respectively. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Stock market today: Trade setup for Nifty 50 to global markets; Eight stocks to buy or sell on Friday — 30 May 2025
Stock Market Today: The benchmark Nifty-50 Index manaed to end a volatile trading session on Thursday with gains of 0.33% at 24,833.60. The Bank Nifty also ended 0.23% higher at 55,546.05 as most other sectors led by Realty, Metal and Healthcare gained. The broader indices also ended with almost half a per cent gains. For Nifty-50 Index 24,700 and 24,650 would act as key support zones and if the market sustains above these levels, the chances of hitting 25,000 -25,100 would become brighter. However, a break below 24,650 could change the sentiment, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities: For Bank Nifty, the support is placed near 54,900 and as long as the index remains above this level, a relief rally towards 56,000 cannot be ruled out, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. Looking ahead, we expect the market to remain range-bound, with sector rotation and stock-specific movements driven by the final set of Q4 results on Friday, macro-economic indicators, and developments on the US tariff front., said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, has recommended two stock picks for today. Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, suggested three stocks, while Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager — Technical Research, at Prabhudas Lilladher has given three stock picks Jindal Steel & Power Ltd- Bagadia recommends buying Jindal Steel & Power or INDALSTEL at Around ₹ 971 keeping Stoploss at around ₹ 937 for a target price of ₹ 1040 JINDALSTEL is currently trading around ₹ 971, showing a strong recovery from recent lows and indicating a potential reversal in trend. The stock is on the verge of breaking its recent lower-high structure, supported by a significant surge in trading volumes—highlighting increased market participation and renewed buying interest. A sustained move above the ₹ 986 level would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for an upside move toward the short-term target of ₹ 1040. 2. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd- Bagadia recommends buying Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders or MAZDOCK at around ₹ 3751.20 keeing Stoploss at ₹ 3619 for a target price of ₹ 4014 MAZDOCK is currently trading at ₹ 3751.20, maintaining a strong uptrend marked by the formation of consistent higher highs and higher lows—an indication of sustained bullish momentum. The stock recently reached an all-time high of ₹ 3775, with a critical resistance level identified near ₹ 3800. A decisive breakout above this level could attract further buying interest and drive the stock toward its next potential target of ₹ 4017 3. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd - Dongre recommends buying Glenmark Pharmaceuticals or GLENMARK at around ₹ 1410 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 1370 for a target price of ₹ 1450 In the latest short-term technical analysis, stock has shown a strong and consistent bullish trend, indicating the potential for an extended upward move. The stock is currently trading at ₹ 1410 and holding above a key support level at ₹ 1370. This support zone serves as a critical point for risk management. Given the bullish momentum, traders are advised to consider a buying opportunity with a stop-loss placed strategically at ₹ 1370 to manage downside risk. The target for this trade is set at ₹ 1450, suggesting a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and a continuation of the prevailing upward trend. 4. Bharat Electronics Ltd- Dongre recommends buying Bharat Electronics or BEL at ₹ 386 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 375 for a target price of ₹ 405 Stock has exhibited a strong notable continue bullish pattern, offering another promising opportunity for short-term traders. The stock is currently priced at ₹ 386 and maintaining a strong support at ₹ 375. The technical setup indicates the potential for a price retracement towards the ₹ 405 level. With the stock reversing from a support base and showing signs of renewed strength, entering at the current market price with a stop-loss at ₹ 375 offers a prudent approach to capturing the anticipated upside. 5. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd or TCS- Dongre recommends buying TCS at around ₹ 3500 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 3450 for a target price of ₹ 3600. Stock is currently trading at ₹ 3500 and appears to be in bullish zone for short term. A bullish reversal pattern has emerged on the daily chart, indicating a potential upmove. The critical support level lies at ₹ 3450, which also acts as a key stop-loss point for this trade. With bullish cues signaling a possible retracement towards the ₹ 3600 target, this setup provides a favorable entry opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a technical rebound. 6. Ideaforge Technology Ltd - Koothupalakkal' recommends buying Ideaforge Technology or IDEA FORGE at around ₹ 539.80 for a target price of ₹ 570 keeping Stop loss at ₹ 528 The stock maintained with a strong bullish trend has once again witnessed a significant revival after a short period of correction taking support near the ₹ 501 zone to improve the bias and anticipate for another fresh round of upward move in the coming sessions. The RSI after correcting from the highly overbought zone is well positioned and has indicated a positive trend reversal to signal a buy and has much upside potential to carry on with the positive move further ahead. With the chart technically looking good, 7. Graphite India Ltd -Koothupalakkal' recommends buying Graphite India or GRAPHITE INDIA at around ₹ 553 for a target price of ₹ 585 keeping Stop loss at ₹ 542 The stock after having a strong steep rise recently has corrected to some extent forming a flag pattern on the daily chart and currently has indicated a breakout to improve the bias and anticipate for fresh upward move in the coming days. The RSI has indicated strength and once again with a positive trend reversal indication has signaled a buy with upside potential visible. With the chart technically well positioned, we suggest buying the stock for an upside target of ₹ 585 level keeping the stop loss of ₹ 542 level. 8. Nava Ltd - Koothupalakkal' recommends buying NAVA at around ₹ 473.90 for a target price of ₹ 500 keeping Stop loss at Around ₹ 462 The stock has indicated a bullish candle formation on the daily chart after a short period of consolidation to come out of the narrow range bound zone and has improved the bias to anticipate for further rise. The RSI is well positioned indicating a trend reversal to signal a buy and has much upside potential to carry on with the positive move further ahead. With the chart technically looking attractive, we suggest buying the stock for an upside target of ₹ 500 level keeping the stop loss of ₹ 462 level. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
29-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Stock market today: Trade setup for Nifty 50 to global markets; Eight stocks to buy or sell on Thursday — 29 May 2025
Stock Market Today: The benchmark Nifty-50 Index ended another volatile session with a negative bias on Wednesday, down 0.3% at 24,752.45. The Bank Nifty, however, gained 0.12%, helped by gains in PSU Banks, though most other sectors, led by FMCG, Healthcare, ended Lower. In the broader indices, while the mid-cap index was flat, the small-cap index ended slightly higher. For the day of monthly expiry, 24600 is likely to act as a strong support where the 20-day EMA is placed. On the upside, the 24900-25000 band would continue to offer resistance in the Nifty, said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President, HDFC Securities. On the upside, Bank Nifty is still facing resistance near the 56,000–56,100 zone, while the support is placed near 54,830. as per Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. The domestic indices remained rangebound with a negative bias, primarily due to the lack of support from FIIs and prevailing premium valuations. A lingering concern over India-US trade relations following the end of the 90-day pause period continues to pose an external risk. On the domestic front, key economic indicators such as an improved monsoon forecast, a benign inflation outlook, and expectations of a stronger Q4 GDP may help cushion downside risks. However, earnings visibility needs to improve in tandem with the macros, which is vital for stability in the direction, as per Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, has recommended two stock picks for today. Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, suggested three stocks, while Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager — Technical Research, at Prabhudas Lilladher has given three stock picks. These include Force Motors Ltd , Astra Microwave Products Ltd, SRF Ltd, Cummins India Ltd, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd, TD Power Systems Ltd , Tanla Platforms Ltd and Indraprastha Gas Ltd. Motors Ltd - Bagadia recommends buying Force Motors or FORCEMOT at around ₹ 11764 keeping Stoploss at around ₹ 11350 for a target price of ₹ 12550. FORCEMOT, is currently trading at 11764, exhibits a strong uptrend and bullish breakout on the daily chart, supported by its consistent position above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). Recent price action indicates a consolidation phase following a notable rally, with the stock maintaining levels near the 20-Day EMA. The reclaim of the 20-day EMA is especially noteworthy, as it often signifies a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. 2. Astra Microwave Products Ltd - Bagadia recommends buying Astra Microwave Products or ASTRAMICRO at around ₹ 1163.7 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 1122 for a target price of ₹ 1240. ASTRAMICRO has delivered an impressive up move, currently trading at all-time high of 1184.9 levels. This surge in the stock continue to delivered a strong bullish momentum supported by steadily rising volumes and improving technical structure. The recent breakout above the crucial resistance at 1100 levels is a significant technical development. The stock closing near the day's high and the breakthrough suggests above the psychologically important ₹ 1100 mark, suggests the continuation of this momentum. 3. SRF Ltd - Dongre recommends buying SRF at around ₹ 2900 keeping Stop Loss at around ₹ 2840 for a target price of ₹ 3100. In the recent short-term trend analysis of the stock, a notable bullish reversal pattern has emerged. This technical pattern suggests the possibility of a temporary retracement in the stock's price, potentially reaching around Rs. 3100. At present, the stock is maintaining a crucial support level at Rs.2840. Given the current market price of Rs.2900, a buying opportunity is emerging. This suggests that investors might consider purchasing the stock at its current price, anticipating a rise towards the identified target of Rs. 3100. 4. Cummins India Ltd- Dongre recommends buying Cummins India or CUMMINSIND at around ₹ 2975 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 2935 for a target price of ₹ 3100 We have seen a major support in this stock around Rs. 2935 So, at the current juncture, the stock has again seen a reversal price action formation at the Rs.2975 price level, which may continue its rally till its next resistance level of Rs. 3100 so traders can buy and hold this stock with a stop loss of Rs. 2935 for the target price of Rs.3100 in the upcoming weeks. 5. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd - Dongre recommends buying ICICI Prudential Life or ICICIPRULI at around ₹ 658 keeping Stoploss at ₹ 640 for a target price of ₹ 695 In the recent short-term trend analysis of the stock, a notable bullish reversal pattern has emerged. This technical pattern suggests that there could be a temporary retracement in the stock's price, possibly to around Rs. 695 Currently, the stock is holding a crucial support level at Rs.640. Given this scenario, there is potential for the stock to rebound towards the Rs. 695 level in the near future. Traders are advised to consider taking a long position, with a strategic stop loss set at Rs.640 to manage risk effectively. The target price for this trade is Rs. 695, reflecting the anticipated upward movement based on the identified technical analysis. 6. TD Power Systems Ltd- recommends buying TD Power Systems or TD POWER SYSTEM at around ₹ 489 for a target price of ₹ 520 keeping Stop loss at around ₹ 480 The stock has indicated a higher bottom formation pattern on the daily chart taking support near ₹ 470 zone and currently has indicated a positive candle formation to improve the bias and anticipate for further rise in the coming sessions. The RSI is well positioned having corrected from the highly overbought zone and has indicated a positive trend reversal to signal a buy with much upside potential visible. 7. Tanla Platforms Ltd - recommends buying Tanla Platforms or TANLA at around ₹ 609 for a target price of ₹ 640 keeping Stop loss at ₹ 595 The stock has indicated another fresh breakout after the consolidation period with a series of strong bullish candle to strengthen the trend anticipating for further rise. The RSI is maintained strong and can carry on with the positive move further ahead. With the chart technically looking good, we suggest buying the stock for an upside target of ₹ 640 level keeping the stop loss of ₹ 595 level. 8. Indraprastha Gas Ltd- recommends buying Indraprastha Gas Ltd or IGL at around ₹ 213 for a Target price of ₹ 224 keeping Stop loss at around ₹ 208 The stock currently indicating a bullish candle formation on the daily chart has come out of the consolidation period to improve the bias and further rise is anticipated in the coming sessions. The RSI has indicated a positive trend reversal to signal a buy and has much upside potential to carry on with the positive move further ahead. With the chart technically well positioned, we suggest buying the stock for an upside target of ₹ 224 level keeping the stop loss of ₹ 208 level. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Automotive
- Economic Times
Sensex soars 10,000 points from April lows. But India Inc's Q4 numbers expose cracks in market rally
Live Events Still, risk looms large. (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The Sensex has stormed back with a stunning 10,000-point plus surge since April lows, but Nifty 's Q4 earnings growth is clocking in at under 6% year-on-year, a number that's raising eyebrows among analysts. Even as the market brushes off the disappointment, the current valuations, already hovering at 21-22x forward price-to-earnings, demand a far more compelling earnings story."Q4 earning season is turning out to be muted yet again in absolute terms, with 5-10% earnings growth depending on sectors," Atul Bhole, EVP & Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told ET market, ever the forward-looking beast, appears to be banking on a robust FY26, driven by a low FY25 base and macro tailwinds like tax breaks, improving wage growth, capex uptick, and a favorable monsoon. But Bhole warned, "India appears to be in a better situation as of now, but larger economic blocks like China & Europe can start attracting large amounts of capital depending on tariff negotiations & changing fiscal / monetary policies given relative valuations advantage. US fiscal position & dollar valuation would also impact flows & hence asset prices.'March quarter numbers, however, didn't leave the Street overtly disappointed as expectations were already lowered post 3 quarters of continuous low-growth and weak corporate commentaries.'It was a kind of mixed bag across sectors,' said Sunny Agrawal of SBI Securities. He pointed to strong showings by ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Kotak, with Axis Bank missing expectations. Cement and metal sectors showed sequential improvement, driven by easing input costs and better realizations. Autos were a mixed lot, with M&M and TVS Motors performing well, while Hero MotoCorp consumer staples, volume growth was tepid, though Marico stood out with 6% volume growth. Jewelry and value retail players reported solid SSG growth, and QSRs held up despite a seasonal and smallcaps emerged as outperformers. "We are finding that the growth momentum may continue for the next two years, especially from midcap and smallcap companies," Agrawal added, noting that markets are rewarding bottom-line strength over sentiment.'Our FY26E/27E net profits of the Nifty-50 Index have seen cuts since the start of CY25,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. With Nifty trading at ~22x/19x for FY26E/FY27E, he warns that continued EPS downgrades could threaten target levels. "If that continues then there is a risk to our [Nifty 26,000] target."According to Elara Securities, Nifty50's rebound from March lows has been more price-driven than earnings-led, with PE multiples rising from 21x to 23x. Only a few top contributors like ICICI Bank and HDFC Life saw both earnings growth and rerating, while Reliance Industries and Adani Ports surged on sentiment more than in Nifty MidCap 150, the 17% rebound was mostly earnings-led, especially in names like BSE, HPCL, Polycab, and MRF, where price moves outpaced PE rerating, a positive sign of fundamentals driving midcap Lilladher noted a similar trend. With 80% of Nifty 50 earnings declared, Q4 has shown sales growth of 4.8%, EBIDTA up 7.4%, and PBT growth at 14%, with margins expanding YoY and QoQ. 'We don't expect a significant change in trend,' they Mittal of LIC Mutual Fund remains cautiously optimistic. "Q4 season has been better than expectations... the downgrade cycle appears to be behind us," he said. With falling bond yields and ample liquidity, 'downside is capped, and upside will depend on the earnings trajectory.'Q4 earnings, therefore, haven't fallen off a cliff, but they also haven't provided the rocket fuel needed to justify valuations near all-time highs. With the global macro environment turning fragile and earnings growth still playing catch-up, the market's next move hinges on whether corporate India can deliver — and deliver fast.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Sensex soars 10,000 points from April lows. But India Inc's Q4 numbers expose cracks in market rally
Despite the Sensex's impressive 10,000-point surge, Q4 earnings growth for Nifty companies is a modest under 6%, raising concerns about market valuations. While the market anticipates a strong FY26, analysts caution about global economic uncertainties and potential EPS downgrades. Midcaps and smallcaps outperformed, but overall, earnings need to catch up to justify current market highs. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Still, risk looms large. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Sensex has stormed back with a stunning 10,000-point plus surge since April lows, but Nifty 's Q4 earnings growth is clocking in at under 6% year-on-year, a number that's raising eyebrows among analysts. Even as the market brushes off the disappointment, the current valuations, already hovering at 21-22x forward price-to-earnings, demand a far more compelling earnings story."Q4 earning season is turning out to be muted yet again in absolute terms, with 5-10% earnings growth depending on sectors," Atul Bhole, EVP & Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told ET market, ever the forward-looking beast, appears to be banking on a robust FY26, driven by a low FY25 base and macro tailwinds like tax breaks, improving wage growth, capex uptick, and a favorable monsoon. But Bhole warned, "India appears to be in a better situation as of now, but larger economic blocks like China & Europe can start attracting large amounts of capital depending on tariff negotiations & changing fiscal / monetary policies given relative valuations advantage. US fiscal position & dollar valuation would also impact flows & hence asset prices.'March quarter numbers, however, didn't leave the Street overtly disappointed as expectations were already lowered post 3 quarters of continuous low-growth and weak corporate commentaries.'It was a kind of mixed bag across sectors,' said Sunny Agrawal of SBI Securities. He pointed to strong showings by ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Kotak, with Axis Bank missing expectations. Cement and metal sectors showed sequential improvement, driven by easing input costs and better realizations. Autos were a mixed lot, with M&M and TVS Motors performing well, while Hero MotoCorp consumer staples, volume growth was tepid, though Marico stood out with 6% volume growth. Jewelry and value retail players reported solid SSG growth, and QSRs held up despite a seasonal and smallcaps emerged as outperformers. "We are finding that the growth momentum may continue for the next two years, especially from midcap and smallcap companies," Agrawal added, noting that markets are rewarding bottom-line strength over sentiment.'Our FY26E/27E net profits of the Nifty-50 Index have seen cuts since the start of CY25,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. With Nifty trading at ~22x/19x for FY26E/FY27E, he warns that continued EPS downgrades could threaten target levels. "If that continues then there is a risk to our [Nifty 26,000] target."According to Elara Securities, Nifty50's rebound from March lows has been more price-driven than earnings-led, with PE multiples rising from 21x to 23x. Only a few top contributors like ICICI Bank and HDFC Life saw both earnings growth and rerating, while Reliance Industries and Adani Ports surged on sentiment more than in Nifty MidCap 150, the 17% rebound was mostly earnings-led, especially in names like BSE, HPCL, Polycab, and MRF, where price moves outpaced PE rerating, a positive sign of fundamentals driving midcap Lilladher noted a similar trend. With 80% of Nifty 50 earnings declared, Q4 has shown sales growth of 4.8%, EBIDTA up 7.4%, and PBT growth at 14%, with margins expanding YoY and QoQ. 'We don't expect a significant change in trend,' they Mittal of LIC Mutual Fund remains cautiously optimistic. "Q4 season has been better than expectations... the downgrade cycle appears to be behind us," he said. With falling bond yields and ample liquidity, 'downside is capped, and upside will depend on the earnings trajectory.'Q4 earnings, therefore, haven't fallen off a cliff, but they also haven't provided the rocket fuel needed to justify valuations near all-time highs. With the global macro environment turning fragile and earnings growth still playing catch-up, the market's next move hinges on whether corporate India can deliver — and deliver fast.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
