Latest news with #NikitaVashisht
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Markets stuck between rich valuation, tepid growth; SMIDs at risk: Report
Stock Market Outlook: The valuations of the Indian market and of most sectors and stocks are quite rich and well above fair values, cautioned Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Institutional Equities Nikita Vashisht New Delhi Market outlook: The consolidation in the Indian stock markets may continue for the next few months as rich valuations, weak domestic consumption and investment, along with global uncertainty cap any meaningful upside, believe analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities. In a report titled 'Indian Markets: All dressed up and nowhere to go'', Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak IE pointed out that the stock market (primarily the benchmark indices) is ignoring risks from a sluggish domestic outlook and a challenged global macroenvironment underscored by a likely low growth and possibly high inflation. "In this context, the valuations of the Indian market and of most sectors and stocks are quite rich and well above fair values. This suggests that investors, both institutional and retail, are yet to reconcile with the new reality," Prasad said in a co-authored report with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa. On the bourses, the stock markets were highly volatile in trade today, swinging between gains and losses. The BSE Sensex index tumbled 1,199 points from the day's high to hit a low of 80,575 level in the intraday trade. The NSE Nifty50, on the other hand, crashed 343 points from the day's high to hit a low of 24,502. The market has been moving sideways since May 12, 2025. Stock market outlook: Key risks According to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities, there is a disconnect between the valuations of the Indian stock markets and the fundamentals of the domestic and global economic growth. On the domestic front, Prasad anticipates a slowdown in the Indian economy on the back of lower growth in investment, which would overshadow any potential recovery in consumption. "While there could be a gradual recovery in the domestic consumption demand, any major upside to demand recovery is ruled out due to muted growth in income of low-income and middle-income households and a possible slowdown in consumption demand of high-income households," it said. Additionally, the brokerage projects moderation in central government capex, coupled with a modest pickup in state capex, despite a significant increase in state budgets for FY2026, likely slowdown in residential real estate demand, and no meaningful pickup in private capex, to curtail demand growth. Globally, Kotak analysts said the flip-flop policies of the US administration on the tariff issue have created a great deal of uncertainties with respect to global growth and inflation. While the markets, global and Indian, have already priced in the best-case scenario of the US and its major trade partners concluding trade agreements before the July 9 deadline, leading to moderate import tariffs and subsequent uptick in inflation, the reality is that only one trade deal (with the UK) has been signed for far. "In a realistic scenario of dragged-out trade negotiations, the market could be volatile based on news (good, bad or ugly) but struggle to break out of a certain range," it said. Stock market valuations In this backdrop, the brokerage believes valuations of the Indian stock market have stayed at high levels in several sectors and stocks despite meaningful earnings downgrades. This, it said, highlights a scenario where either the market does not care about valuations and/or the market does not care about earnings. "In our view, this nonchalant attitude perhaps reflects the market's confidence in retail investors sustaining their hitherto price-agnostic purchase of stocks through mutual funds, and FPIs staying positive on Indian equities based on a 'narrative' of a lack of alternatives in emerging markets," it said. Data, however, points out that retail investors have been reducing new investments into mutual funds. FPIs, on the other hand, are "value-sensitive" investors. As the Indian market has not performed in the recent global rally, investors should acknowledge that "Indian exceptionalism" may not be enough. Largecap vs mid, smallcaps: Where to invest? Kotak Institutional Equities believes the large-cap indices may find some support from continued optimism among investors about India's long-term growth prospects and lower interest rates, but the small and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have a long way to correct to their fair values. According to the brokerage most large-cap and mid-cap consumption stocks (FMCG and durables), capital goods and EMS stocks, and outsourcing stocks (information technology) are trading at expensive valuations.
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Business Standard
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Where to invest as markets look past trade, India-Pak war, Q4 earnings?
Stock market outlook: Analysts suggest investors invest in domestic economy-facing sectors Nikita Vashisht New Delhi Stock market strategy: The markets are likely to consolidate in the near-term after a relief rally earlier this week that saw the Sensex and the Nifty 50 record their best day in four years, analysts said. Most positives, they believe, are in the price even as overhang related to foreign investors' inflows and uneasy calm at the India, Pakistan border persists. As an investment strategy, they suggest investors look at domestic economy-facing sectors, which are relatively insulated from global developments. While a major fall in the market from these levels is unlikely with March lows acting as a near-term bottom, Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market expert anticipates the up move to be gradual amid intermittent bouts of profit taking. He expects the 24,000-25,000 zone on the Nifty to be a strong base for the index. "The 900-point rally in Nifty on Monday was unexpected and markets will likely consolidate around current levels," Baliga said. Markets' roller coaster months Indian stock markets have been volatile over the past few months as investors dealt with US President Donald Trump's trade and reciprocal tariffs, corporate results of India Inc, and a war with Pakistan. From a high of 82,133 touched on December 13, 2024 (on closing basis), the BSE Sensex index hit a low of 72,990 on March 4, 2025 (closing basis), dropping over 9,100 points as markets began discounting Trump's tariff rhetoric. A relief rally, however, ensued in the domestic equity markets thereafter as Trump's reciprocal tariffs on India were lower than some of the other emerging markets, especially China. Simultaneously, buying by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) for the third consecutive month, and de-escalation between India-Pakistan over the weekend, lifted the Sensex back above 82,000 level on May 12. The sharp increase in FPI inflows in recent weeks, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) said, reflected positive sentiment for India among active and passive investors, driven by a 2.5-per cent depreciation in the US Dollar index over the past one month, and high conviction among investors that India could be a relatively 'better' market, considering global growth challenges. In this backdrop, how a tariff-truce between the US and China will affect foreign inflows will hold the key for the domestic equity markets' up move in the coming days, analysts said. "The outlook for the Indian stock market remains excellent from a medium-to-long term perspective. However, in the near-term, investors need to closely watch the contours of the trade deal between the US and China," cautioned G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research. A trade deal between two of the world's biggest economies is good for global trade, but Chokkalimgam believes it may be a tad negative for India, which was emerging as an alternative to China. "This, and the sustenance of ceasefire understanding between India and Pakistan at the border, remain two major overhangs on the Indian stock markets," Chokkalingam added. Where to invest in stock market? Against this backdrop, analysts suggest investors invest in domestic economy-facing sectors as steady economic growth, expectations of a 'normal' monsoon and robust food grain output, easing inflation, and signing of various trade agreements bode well for India's economic outlook. Ambareesh Baliga, on the other hand, prefers banks, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), white goods, automobile and auto ancillary, specialty chemicals, cement, and metals. He is cautious, but not negative, on information technology (IT) stocks, while seeing limited upside in defence stocks. That said, as most sectors are trading at lofty valuations, there could be a possible derating in multiples across sectors in the case of earnings disappointments, cautioned KIE.
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Business Standard
23-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Trading guide, April 23: Trade set-up, factors to know before Opening Bell
Stock Market Today, Sensex Today, April 23, 2025: Ather Energy IPO will open for subscription on April 28, 2025, in a likely price band of ₹304-321 per share Nikita Vashisht New Delhi Stock Market Today, Wednesday, April 23, 2025: A rally in global markets, led by hopes of de-escalation in trade war between the US and China, along with US President Donald Trump's softer stance towards US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, could push Sensex, Nifty higher today. At 7:15 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were ruling 203 points higher at 24,372 level, suggesting a gap-up start for India stock markets on Wednesday. Stock Market Wrap, April 22: On Tuesday, stock markets in Indian settled in the positive zone, closing higher for a sixth consecutive day. The BSE Sensex index rose 187 points (0.24 per cent) to end at 79,596, and the Nifty50 index climbed 42 points (0.2 per cent) to settle at 24,167. FIIs/FPIs were net buyers of Indian stocks on Tuesday, buying equity worth ₹1,290.43 crore. DIIs, on the other hand, sold stocks worth ₹885.63 crore. Stock Market Prediction Today; top factors that will guide Sensex, Nifty today: Nikkei leads gains in Asia: Markets in the Asia-Pacific region were trading with a positive bias on Wednesday, tracking sharp gains on Wall Street overnight. The rally in global markets today came after Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the final tariffs on Chinese imports would come down "substantially" from the current 145 per cent. He, however, added that they won't be zero either. In addition, he told reporters that he had "no intention" to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term next year. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,017 points (2.66 per cent), the S&P 500 jumped 2.51 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.71 per cent. Nearer home, Japan's Nikkei Japanese surged nearly 2 per cent in early trade, South Korea's Kospi index increased 0.86 per cent, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 1.55 per cent. Gold at ₹1,00,000: Gold prices eased on Tuesday, after hitting record highs in domestic and international market, as investors turned to riskier assets amid hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Gold, which fell 0.17 per cent on Tuesday to close at $3,419.40 per ounce, was trading over 1 per cent lower Wednesday morning at $3,380 per ounce level. Notably, Gold futures hit a session high of $3,509.90 per ounce yesterday. Back home, Gold price zoomed ₹1,800 on Tuesday to cross the psychological level of ₹1 lakh per 10 grams in Delhi's retail market. The 24-carat gold rate in Delhi reached an all-time high of ₹1,01,600 per 10 grams on Tuesday in the retail market, whereas Gold derivatives on MCX jumped ₹2,048 or 2.1 per cent to hit a new high of ₹1,00,000 for the August delivery contract. Q4 Results Today: 360 One WAM, Astec Lifesciences, Bajaj Housing Finance, CanFin Homes, Dalmia Bharat, Den Networks, Eimco Elecon (India), Filatex India, Gravity India, Gujarat Hotels, IIRM Holdings India, Ind Bank Housing, International Travel House, Khaitan Chemicals & Fertilizers, LTIMindtree, Maharashtra Scooters, Mangalam Global Enterprise, Rallis India, Refex Industries, Supreme Petrochem, Syngene International, Tata Consumer Products, Thyrocare Technologies, Tips Music, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra), and Wendt (India) are scheduled to report their Q4 results today. Manufacturing, Services PMI Flash data: On the economic front, the S&P Global Manufacturing, and Services PMI (Flash) data for April will be released today for Australia, the UK, and the US. In Japan, Jibun Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash data will be released for April, while, in India, HSBC Composite PMI, Manufacturing PMI, and Services PMI data will be released later today. In Europe, investors will track the HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash data. IPOs Opening Today: The dry spell in the primary market will end today as Tankup Engineers IPO will open for subscription today. The SME Tankup Engineers IPO is a bookbuilding issue, looking to raise ₹19.53 crore. Meanwhile, Ather Energy IPO will end the draught in the mainboard IPO segment, which has seen no IPOs since February 18, 2025. The electric two-wheeler manufacturer will launch its IPO on April 28, 2025, in the likely price band of ₹304 to ₹321 per share. Ather Energy IPO aims to raise ₹2,626 crore via fresh issue. Sensex, Nifty technical levels: Shrikant Chouhan, who is head of equity research at Kotak Securities, suggests day traders should note 24,000-24,100 as the key support zone for Nifty index. Similarly, 79,000-79,400 will act as key support for Sensex index today. On the contrary, 24,250-24,350 on the Nifty chart and 79,800-80,000 on the Sensex chart could serve as key resistance areas for the bulls. "However, if the indices fall below 24,000/79,000, sentiment could change. Traders may prefer to exit their long positions below these levels,"he added. Stocks to Watch Today, April 23: HCL Technologies share price: The IT company, on Tuesday, reported a consolidated net profit of ₹4,307 crore for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, up 7.81 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Further, revenue from operations increased 6.1 per cent on year to ₹30,246 crore. The company announced an interim dividend of ₹18 per share. IndusInd Bank share price: The private sector bank informed the exchanges that EY will assist the bank's internal audit department for the review of the bank's microfinance portfolio. It will not conduct any forensic audit.
