Latest news with #NikolaosPanigirtzoglou
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Ethereum Upgrades Have Failed to Boost Network Activity in Meaningful Way: JPMorgan
The Ethereum blockchain has yet to see a significant increase in activity despite successive upgrades, investment bank JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report. "Neither the number of daily transactions nor the number of active addresses saw a material increase post recent upgrades," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the Wednesday report. Still, total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum increased between the Dencun upgrade in March 2024 and Pectra earlier this month, the bank noted, possibly due to increased lending and borrowing on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), but the increase looks lower in dollar terms than in the blockchain's ether ETH token. Ethereum activated the Pectra upgrade on May 7. The update aims to streamline staking, enhance wallet functionality and improve overall efficiency. Pectra makes the ETH token and Ethereum itself more appealing to institutions, the bank said. It distinguishes the network from competitors, but the upgrades haven't boosted activity in a meaningful way. The bank noted that following the Dencun upgrade, both average and total fees fell, in part because of a shift toward layer 2 chains. Ether's circulating supply also increased after Dencun, which raised concerns about the crypto "becoming an inflationary asset amid subdued transaction activity," JPMorgan said. Futures positioning suggests that institutions played a large role in the recent rally in ether, the report added. Ether has risen more than 45% in the past month, CoinDesk data show.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Best Buy Right Now, According to a Wall Street Analyst
The U.S. Dollar Index has declined 8% year to date amid worrisome trade and fiscal policy decisions, so some investors have diversified into gold and Bitcoin. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 6 percentage points this year, but JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou expects the opposite outcome in the remaining months of 2025. Bitcoin's price could continue rising this year as more companies and state governments adopt the cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve asset. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › The investment theses for gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) are similar. Both are considered safe-haven assets, at least by some investors, because they exist in finite quantifies. That means gold and Bitcoin become more valuable as demand increases, which theoretically makes them good hedges against weakness in the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies. Case in point: The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen 8% year to date amid concerns about the Trump administration's trade and fiscal policies. Put differently, the value of U.S. currency has decreased 8% versus a basket of foreign currencies. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin prices have surged 24% and 18%, respectively. Importantly, while gold outperformed in the first five months of the year, JPMorgan Chase analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou expects the opposite outcome in the remaining months of 2025. Read on to learn more. Before discussing the pros and cons of gold and Bitcoin, investors should know how to get exposure to both assets. Gold bullion can be purchased through various online retailers, and Bitcoin can be purchased through cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase. But direct ownership comes with challenges. For instance, transporting and storing gold tends to be difficult and costly, and selling physical bullion can be complicated. Likewise, Bitcoin transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges often involve high fees, and storage solutions can be a headache. Fortunately, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) eliminate those problems. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD) tracks the spot price of gold. It's the largest gold fund as measured by assets under management, and the most popular in terms of trading volume. It has a somewhat high expense ratio of 0.4%, meaning shareholders will pay $40 annually on every $10,000 invested in the fund. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) tracks the spot price of Bitcoin. It is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF as measured by assets under management, and the most popular in terms of trading volume. Compared to similar funds, the iShares Bitcoin Trust has a middle-of-the-road expense ratio of 0.25%. JPMorgan analysts in a recent note to clients highlighted cryptocurrency-specific catalysts that could lead to Bitcoin outperforming gold in the remaining months of the year. First, several companies have put Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and many plan to add more. The best known of the bunch is Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, which plans to invest $57 billion in Bitcoin through 2027. Second, two states -- Arizona and New Hampshire -- recently enacted laws that establish strategic Bitcoin reserves, and about two dozen others have introduce similar legislation. That positions state governments as potential buyers of Bitcoin. JPMorgan analysts wrote, "As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn into a more sustained positive catalyst for Bitcoin." However, JPMorgan views gold as the more prudent option for risk-averse investors. "In our view, gold may be positioned to offer some protection against further geopolitical risk and dollar weakness," analysts wrote in their mid-year outlook. "We are skeptical that Bitcoin and other crypto assets offer the potential to improve portfolio resilience. Despite their low correlations to traditional assets, crypto assets have historically made portfolios more fragile." Here is the bottom line: Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to raise prices and slow economic growth. Also, the tax and spending bill that recently passed the House of Representatives would add an estimated $3 trillion to federal debt during the next decade. Those developments have left some investors hesitant about owning U.S. stocks and bonds. So, demand for U.S. currency has declined, causing the dollar to lose value. That trend may or may not intensify in the coming months. But investors concerned about the possibility can hedge against down stock markets and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar by owning gold or Bitcoin. Personally, I think gold is the better option for anyone that cannot tolerate volatility. But I also think Bitcoin can outperform gold (especially in the long run) as more companies and governments adopt the cryptocurrency as a reserve asset. Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $651,761!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $826,263!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 170% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Coinbase Global, and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Best Buy Right Now, According to a Wall Street Analyst was originally published by The Motley Fool Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Why the market comeback may have run out of steam, according to JPMorgan
Investors hoping that reduced trade tensions could push stocks to new heights will most likely be left disappointed, according to JPMorgan. Uncertainty from President Donald Trump's tariff policies decimated the stock market's performance to start the year. The S & P 500 tumbled 18.9% between its all-time high in February and its closing low in early April. But all three major averages have bounced back from those losses since April 2, when the president announced his reciprocal tariffs on the U.S.'s largest trading partners, followed by a 90-day suspension the following week. The S & P 500 has climbed 18.5% since the April 8 low, and is now little changed on the year, down just 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have respectively fallen 1.5% and 1.6% this year. But JPMorgan believes signs of fatigue among retail investors means further gains may be hard to come by. "A slowing of the retail impulse, more elevated equity exposures by equity focused hedge funds, largely completed short covering by macro hedge funds, and continued lack of buying by foreign investors, all together imply more limited upside for U.S. equities going forward," wrote London-based strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a note to clients published Wednesday. The analyst noted that retail activity was especially strong in March and April, when investor behavior was dominated by a buy-the-dip mentality. But that impulse among individual investors has slowed in May, underscoring a sense of fatigue. This, combined with more elevated equity exposures from stock-focused hedge funds, may signal that there are fewer available investors to jump into stocks and fuel further gains. "If one adds equity-focused hedge funds' bullish positioning to the slowing of the retail impulse, a less favorable equity flow and positioning backdrop emerges," Panigirtzoglou added. "Equity-focused hedge funds, including equity quant hedge funds, appear to have rebuilt their equity exposures during April after de-risking in February and March, effectively returning to the bullish stance of last January." Meanwhile, Treasury International Capital data to be released this Friday will show the behavior of foreign investors in the month of March. The analyst said that there's a "high risk" that this report will show outflows from U.S. equities by foreign investors, although he cautioned that selling of U.S. stocks by foreign investors might simply reflect hedge fund de-risking, "including hedge funds based in the U.S., rather than a reflection of selling by real money foreign investors."
Yahoo
05-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Banks Say Markets Are Flashing Rising Recession Risk
(Bloomberg) -- Financial markets are signaling that the risk of a recession is growing as tariff-related uncertainty and indicators of economic weakness spread fear across Wall Street. Republican Mayor Braces for Tariffs: 'We Didn't Budget for This' How Upzoning in Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold NYC's Finances Are Sinking With Gauge Falling to 11-Year Low Remembering the Landscape Architect Who Embraced the City Trump Administration Plans to Eliminate Dozens of Housing Offices A model from JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows that the market-implied probability of an economic downturn has climbed to 31% on Tuesday, from 17% at the end of November. Key indicators like five-year Treasuries and base metals are showing an even higher — toss-up — chance of a contraction. While it's far from the base case, a similar model from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also suggests recession risk is edging up, at 23% from 14% in January. After a wild ride in markets Tuesday, economic sentiment is darkening as money managers and corporate executives struggle to cope with the volatility created by President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Trump defended his plan to remake the global trading order in his address to Congress Tuesday night, acknowledging the prospect of discomfort ahead. 'With softer economic activity data in the US and already weaker business and consumer confidence in recent weeks, the tariffs that came into effect on March 4th on Canada, Mexico and China are raising the risk of an even bigger hit to business and consumer confidence going forward,' said JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. 'In turn this raises the specter of a US recession and markets have naturally priced in higher probability.' S&P 500 futures struggled to hold onto to gains in Wednesday trading, even after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at tariff relief for Mexico and Canada. Data this week showed US factory activity last month edging closer to stagnation as orders and employment contracted. This came after reports showing consumer confidence hitting the lowest levels since 2021, personal spending unexpectedly decreasing, and disappointing prints about the American housing market. Mohamed A. El-Erian, the president of Queens' College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, now sees a 25% to 30% chance of a recession, up from 10% at the beginning of the year. El-Erian is among a small but growing group of Wall Street worrywarts, focused on stubborn inflation pressures and the recent decline in consumer and business confidence. JPMorgan calculates the prospect of a recession by comparing the pre-recession peaks of various classes and their troughs during an economic contraction. By this metric, the prices of five-year Treasuries, base metals and small stocks now suggest a recession probability of about 50%. Still, the investment-grade credit market suggests the chance remains low at 8%, though that's higher than effectively zero at the end of November. The Goldman model is based on multiple cross-asset indicators, including credit spreads and the Cboe Volatility Index. One metric, tracking expectations in the futures market on the Fed's benchmark rate in 12 months time, suggests a 46% likelihood of an economic contraction. 'The largest shifts have been in the pricing of Fed cuts and the yield curve, which tends to indicate latent recession risk,' said Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research for Goldman Sachs said in an email. 'There has also been a pick-up in the VIX, which tends to spike around recessions and is more of a coincident indicator.' To be clear, financial markets have struggled to price in the direction of the business cycle since the disruption caused by the pandemic. Recession bets in markets misfired in 2023 after the US consumer proved more resilient than expected to monetary tightening. This time round, stagflation fears are rising amid signs of easing growth and elevated inflation. The latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg shows a 25% probability of a contraction in the next year. While US stocks have erased their gains for the year, there are plenty of bright spots in the investment and consumption cycle, not least the unemployment rate hovering around 4% and income metrics showing strength. Additionally, a lot of bad economic news has come from reports based on surveys, according to Cayla Seder, a macro multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. 'It would be premature to extrapolate the soft data-weakness into meaning economic growth is rolling over, as of now,' said Seder. Still, 'drivers of economic growth have become more concentrated, which means there are fewer drivers of economic growth,' she added. The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World's Most Popular Vapes Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? Greenland Voters Weigh Their Election's Most Important Issue: Trump Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods Trump's SALT Tax Promise Hinges on an Obscure Loophole ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto Market Faces Weak Demand, Needs Trump Initiatives to Kick In, JPMorgan Says
The cryptocurrency market is lacking positive catalysts in the near term, Wall Street bank JPMorgan (JPM) said in a report Wednesday. The correction in crypto markets in recent months has seen both bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) futures near backwardation, which is a sign of lower demand, the report said. Backwardation occurs when the spot price of an asset is higher than the price trading in the futures market. "This is a negative development and indicative of demand weakness by those institutional investors that use regulated CME futures contracts to gain exposure into these two cryptocurrencies," analysts led Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote. If demand for bitcoin and ether futures is healthy, the futures cost more than the spot price, and the curve is said to be in contango, the bank noted. When demand slows and price expectations soften, the futures curve moves towards backwardation, the bank added. This weakness in demand could be due to a number of reasons. Positive crypto initiatives by Trump's new administration are more likely to kick in during the second half of the year, the bank said, and this means institutional investors are likely taking profits due to a lack of short-term catalysts. Lower demand from systematic and momentum-driven funds, such as CTAs, has also affected bitcoin and ether futures, JPMorgan added. Read more: U.S. Crypto Task Force to Focus on Delivering National Bitcoin Reserve: Bernstein Sign in to access your portfolio
