Latest news with #NishanthVasudevan
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Morning Brief Podcast: Big Money's Mood Swings: Explaining the FII Flight
Morning Brief Podcast (ET Online) Big Money's Mood Swings: Explaining the FII Flight Anirban Chowdhury | 12:49 Min | August 12, 2025, 6:34 AM IST LISTEN 12:49 LISTENING... In this episode, we dive into why foreign investors have been quietly pulling billions out of India's stock markets even as they talk up the country's growth potential. We break down the main drivers: stock prices are high compared to history and other Asian markets, corporate earnings growth has slowed, the rupee has weakened, and economic activity has lost some steam. And then came the curveball hefty U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. This unexpected move has rattled investors already on the edge. While strong domestic inflows from Indian investors have helped steady the market, foreign money still matters, because it's often seen as a measure of global confidence in the economy. Host Anirban Chowdhury with ETs markets editor Nishanth Vasudevan explore the different kinds of foreign investors from 'hot money' chasing short-term opportunities to patient, value-focused funds waiting for the right moment. The question now is: will they return if the market takes a dip, earnings bounce back, or growth accelerates again?
Economic Times
01-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India's retail traders gain formal access to algo trading under Sebi's new framework
Starting August 1st, Indian retail investors gain formal access to algo trading under Sebi's new framework, moving from unregulated activity to supervised trading. While this democratizes automated trading, retail algos, subject to strict checks and slower execution, differ significantly from the sophisticated, faster systems used by institutions. The 'kill switch' provides a safety net against systemic disruptions. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads August 1 is the day when retail investors in India can officially access algorithmic trading software, transforming from what has been an unregulated, informal activity so far. Nishanth Vasudevan finds out what Sebi's new, tighter framework means for retail investors and whether it could change the way they trading-short for algorithmic trading-is a computer programme that automatically places buy or sell orders based on a set of pre-defined retail investors must place trades manually through the brokers' trading app or platform. In algo, software does the trades on its own when certain predetermined conditions are met. You could set an algorithm to buy a stock if it falls below ₹100 or sell if it crosses ₹ now, rules for a lot of retail algo trading were grey, with open APIs or application programming interfaces (digital tools from brokers that allowed traders to use their own algos) and little regulatory oversight. From August 1, all that changes as retail algo trading comes under formal regulatory supervision and only approved software will be allowed to be used for retail investors can access algo trading only if registered with stockbrokers and as per the conditions laid out by Sebi. If you're using a third-party algo-from a fintech or algo vendor-it must be empanelled with the stock exchange, and your broker must do the necessary checks before allowing it. The algo itself must be registered with the You need to register it with the exchange through your broker if the algo fires off orders fast enough to cross a limit, measured as the number of orders per second. If the number of orders is below that threshold, the algo need not be can't just download an algo software from the internet and start firing trades. Only algo providers empanelled with the exchange are allowed to offer this. These firms can provide it only through a registered broker. Every algo strategy must be registered with the exchange and will be assigned a unique ID. Automated trading has mostly been the preserve of institutional investors, trading desks, and FPIs. Big trading firms like Jane Street use super sophisticated algorithms that execute orders in microseconds. By formalising it, Sebi has tried to democratise that doesn't mean that the playing field is level-the big players will continue to have an advantage in terms of speed, flexibility and algo software used by retail investors is not the same as what big institutions or proprietary desks use. The retail version will have to go through strict checks and approvals, while institutional and prop trading desks use in-house algos, which are customised and large institutions connect directly to the exchange through direct market access (DMA)-a system that allows them to place orders directly, bypassing the broker. This route is not available to retail investors. DMA gives algo trades the edge in terms of faster execution. While retail investors will also be allowed to access algo software, the level of regulatory controls is tighter, while speed and flexibility are modest compared to what institutions safety nets are aimed at ensuring that the algo trades do not snowball into a bigger issue. While regulations ensure oversight by brokers, exchanges and Sebi, one key safeguard is the 'kill switch', which allows exchanges to halt trades from a particular algo. This is aimed at averting a systemic disruption on account of one software for retail traders may not be as efficient as what institutions use, but it does open possibilities. Automation brings discipline to trading, while retail investors can do rule-based trading strategies consistently without much effort. So, retail algos may not outrun big machines, but it's a good place to start.
Time of India
01-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's retail traders gain formal access to algo trading under Sebi's new framework
Starting August 1st, Indian retail investors gain formal access to algo trading under Sebi's new framework, moving from unregulated activity to supervised trading. While this democratizes automated trading, retail algos, subject to strict checks and slower execution, differ significantly from the sophisticated, faster systems used by institutions. The 'kill switch' provides a safety net against systemic disruptions. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads August 1 is the day when retail investors in India can officially access algorithmic trading software, transforming from what has been an unregulated, informal activity so far. Nishanth Vasudevan finds out what Sebi's new, tighter framework means for retail investors and whether it could change the way they trading-short for algorithmic trading-is a computer programme that automatically places buy or sell orders based on a set of pre-defined retail investors must place trades manually through the brokers' trading app or platform. In algo, software does the trades on its own when certain predetermined conditions are met. You could set an algorithm to buy a stock if it falls below ₹100 or sell if it crosses ₹ now, rules for a lot of retail algo trading were grey, with open APIs or application programming interfaces (digital tools from brokers that allowed traders to use their own algos) and little regulatory oversight. From August 1, all that changes as retail algo trading comes under formal regulatory supervision and only approved software will be allowed to be used for retail investors can access algo trading only if registered with stockbrokers and as per the conditions laid out by Sebi. If you're using a third-party algo-from a fintech or algo vendor-it must be empanelled with the stock exchange, and your broker must do the necessary checks before allowing it. The algo itself must be registered with the You need to register it with the exchange through your broker if the algo fires off orders fast enough to cross a limit, measured as the number of orders per second. If the number of orders is below that threshold, the algo need not be can't just download an algo software from the internet and start firing trades. Only algo providers empanelled with the exchange are allowed to offer this. These firms can provide it only through a registered broker. Every algo strategy must be registered with the exchange and will be assigned a unique ID. Automated trading has mostly been the preserve of institutional investors, trading desks, and FPIs. Big trading firms like Jane Street use super sophisticated algorithms that execute orders in microseconds. By formalising it, Sebi has tried to democratise that doesn't mean that the playing field is level-the big players will continue to have an advantage in terms of speed, flexibility and algo software used by retail investors is not the same as what big institutions or proprietary desks use. The retail version will have to go through strict checks and approvals, while institutional and prop trading desks use in-house algos, which are customised and large institutions connect directly to the exchange through direct market access (DMA)-a system that allows them to place orders directly, bypassing the broker. This route is not available to retail investors. DMA gives algo trades the edge in terms of faster execution. While retail investors will also be allowed to access algo software, the level of regulatory controls is tighter, while speed and flexibility are modest compared to what institutions safety nets are aimed at ensuring that the algo trades do not snowball into a bigger issue. While regulations ensure oversight by brokers, exchanges and Sebi, one key safeguard is the 'kill switch', which allows exchanges to halt trades from a particular algo. This is aimed at averting a systemic disruption on account of one software for retail traders may not be as efficient as what institutions use, but it does open possibilities. Automation brings discipline to trading, while retail investors can do rule-based trading strategies consistently without much effort. So, retail algos may not outrun big machines, but it's a good place to start.
Economic Times
09-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
US market outlook: Indian market recovery driven by govt spending & rural demand: Gokul Laroia, Morgan Stanley
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The recovery in Indian markets is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand, said Gokul Laroia, CEO Asia and co-head of global equities, Morgan Stanley . In an interview with Nishanth Vasudevan, Laroia spoke about US markets, the dollar and Indian IPOs, among other topics. Edited excerpts:We're positive on the US market because I think all the growth-unfriendly or market-unfriendly actions were taken first. The growth-friendly actions like tax bill, deregulation and financial conditions easing are now coming. And, earnings revisions in the US appear to have bottomed out and, in fact, are now inflecting and becoming more view on the US market continues to be pretty constructive. Now, all of this comes with a caveat. If you don't get a resolution to a lot of the more complicated trade situations, like those with the EU or China, that's obviously going to remain a headwind-and a persistent one. Which is why I tend to feel that the deal with India is actually more India, the market recovery is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand. Even if you don't see 7.5% persist, but say, 6.5% real GDP growth and 10-10.5% nominal-that'll provide a lot of support to the markets. Because that'll translate into mid-teen earnings growth and mid-teens ROE.A lot of people actually question the "Multiple India" trade. They say it's expensive, etc. And yes, it's expensive relative to where other markets are trading. But show me a market outside of the US that has high earnings growth, high return on equity, and low volatility. The US trades at 21-22 times earnings too. India trades at 21-22 times earnings. You could argue that the growth rates in India are higher but then the cost of capital in India is also six to eight months, the view was very cautious because of the slowdown in the macro, and earnings disappointment. Some capital was reallocated to China tech after DeepSeek, some capital went to Europe because there was this notion of fiscal expansion in Europe out of Germany. I think that's inflected. The global guys, or at least the classic long-only global guys, tend to be value-conscious. There's a view that India is expensive as a market. But honestly, for as long as I've been doing this, I can't think of a time when India hasn't been expensive as a market. But it continues to perform as a market because I think you've got to think about value in the context of earnings growth, returns on equity, low beta and macro variables. You get that package at 21 times earnings, not at 12 times is going to slow in the US. So a combination of what was actually supporting the dollar is now not going to be there. Our view is that the dollar continues to weaken for the foreseeable future. This year it's down against a basket of major trading partners by about 7-8%. We're of the view that it probably drops by an equivalent amount over the course of the next year or has a whole variety of factors at play. The most important one is the assessment of the US fiscal deficit. And, this tax bill is going to be growth accretive, but the concern that it's creating is that the deficit stays close to 7%. And a 7% deficit will mean that the US government is going to have to borrow a lot. And if the US government has to borrow a lot, then what happens to yields is a big question. Particularly as the traditional buyers of US Treasuries-Japan, China, perhaps even the EU-are perhaps not going to be as big as they were in the past.A little bit of it has happened. But if you think about it in the context of the amount of money that went into the US over the last 10 years versus the amount of money that's actually come out. It's very, very small. And the number one reason for that is that there is no market in the world that gives you the kind of scale the US market to do that in meaningful way is limited, just given scale and depth of markets relative to scale and depth of US. Historically, when the dollar weakened, money flowed into emerging markets. Can that happen again? Money has flown out of the US to emerging markets. But at the margin. Emerging markets can't absorb that much money. I mean, the amount of foreign capital that over the last 10 years has gone into the US—forget the underlying asset class—is over $10 trillion. If a few hundred billion moves into EMs, that'll have a real impact on emerging markets. The point I'm trying to make is that this (outflows) will be a small percentage of what came in, because the rest of the world does not have the ability to absorb that kind of capital. That places the US in a pretty special position. In India, there's a flood of paper (IPOs, promoters selling) in the best thing for Indian market is more paper coming, more liquidity getting generated as a result of paper, and more asset managers trading these markets more actively. If there's too much paper, it has a near-term impact.
Time of India
09-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Indian market recovery driven by govt spending & rural demand: Gokul Laroia, Morgan Stanley
The recovery in Indian markets is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand, said Gokul Laroia, CEO Asia and co-head of global equities, Morgan Stanley . In an interview with Nishanth Vasudevan, Laroia spoke about US markets, the dollar and Indian IPOs, among other topics. Edited excerpts: How would you term the recent rebound in the market? Does it give any confidence that the worst is over? by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Many Are Watching Tariffs - Few Are Watching What Nvidia Just Launched Seeking Alpha Read Now Undo We're positive on the US market because I think all the growth-unfriendly or market-unfriendly actions were taken first. The growth-friendly actions like tax bill, deregulation and financial conditions easing are now coming. And, earnings revisions in the US appear to have bottomed out and, in fact, are now inflecting and becoming more positive. Our view on the US market continues to be pretty constructive. Now, all of this comes with a caveat. If you don't get a resolution to a lot of the more complicated trade situations, like those with the EU or China, that's obviously going to remain a headwind-and a persistent one. Which is why I tend to feel that the deal with India is actually more straightforward. What about Indian markets? In India, the market recovery is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand. Even if you don't see 7.5% persist, but say, 6.5% real GDP growth and 10-10.5% nominal-that'll provide a lot of support to the markets. Because that'll translate into mid-teen earnings growth and mid-teens ROE. Live Events Aren't valuations a sore point? A lot of people actually question the "Multiple India" trade. They say it's expensive, etc. And yes, it's expensive relative to where other markets are trading. But show me a market outside of the US that has high earnings growth, high return on equity, and low volatility. The US trades at 21-22 times earnings too. India trades at 21-22 times earnings. You could argue that the growth rates in India are higher but then the cost of capital in India is also higher. Do global asset allocators think the same way about India? Last six to eight months, the view was very cautious because of the slowdown in the macro, and earnings disappointment. Some capital was reallocated to China tech after DeepSeek, some capital went to Europe because there was this notion of fiscal expansion in Europe out of Germany. I think that's inflected. The global guys, or at least the classic long-only global guys, tend to be value-conscious. There's a view that India is expensive as a market. But honestly, for as long as I've been doing this, I can't think of a time when India hasn't been expensive as a market. But it continues to perform as a market because I think you've got to think about value in the context of earnings growth, returns on equity, low beta and macro variables. You get that package at 21 times earnings, not at 12 times earnings. Coming to the US, this is the first time in recent times we are seeing the dollar sliding and Treasury yields going up. What are your thoughts? Growth is going to slow in the US. So a combination of what was actually supporting the dollar is now not going to be there. Our view is that the dollar continues to weaken for the foreseeable future. This year it's down against a basket of major trading partners by about 7-8%. We're of the view that it probably drops by an equivalent amount over the course of the next year or so. And the US Treasury yields ? That has a whole variety of factors at play. The most important one is the assessment of the US fiscal deficit. And, this tax bill is going to be growth accretive, but the concern that it's creating is that the deficit stays close to 7%. And a 7% deficit will mean that the US government is going to have to borrow a lot. And if the US government has to borrow a lot, then what happens to yields is a big question. Particularly as the traditional buyers of US Treasuries-Japan, China, perhaps even the EU-are perhaps not going to be as big as they were in the past. So, is the risk-off sentiment in dollar-denominated assets for real? A little bit of it has happened. But if you think about it in the context of the amount of money that went into the US over the last 10 years versus the amount of money that's actually come out. It's very, very small. And the number one reason for that is that there is no market in the world that gives you the kind of scale the US market does. The question is where are you going to go if you have meaningful amounts of capital to deploy? Ability to do that in meaningful way is limited, just given scale and depth of markets relative to scale and depth of US. Historically, when the dollar weakened, money flowed into emerging markets. Can that happen again? Money has flown out of the US to emerging markets. But at the margin. Emerging markets can't absorb that much money. I mean, the amount of foreign capital that over the last 10 years has gone into the US—forget the underlying asset class—is over $10 trillion. If a few hundred billion moves into EMs, that'll have a real impact on emerging markets. The point I'm trying to make is that this (outflows) will be a small percentage of what came in, because the rest of the world does not have the ability to absorb that kind of capital. That places the US in a pretty special position. In India, there's a flood of paper (IPOs, promoters selling) in the market. Does that tend to cap the upsides for equities? The best thing for Indian market is more paper coming, more liquidity getting generated as a result of paper, and more asset managers trading these markets more actively. If there's too much paper, it has a near-term impact.
