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USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Big 12 football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI
Big 12 football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI The 2025 Big 12 football season continues to inch closer. Only 83 days remain until Colorado kicks off against Georgia Tech on Friday, August 29. Important offseason events continue to come and go as we get closer to the season. Over the past few weeks, ESPN released its power rating metrics, SP+ and Football Power Index. When those ratings receive updates after the spring, it means we have a good feeling for what each team will look like during the upcoming season. ESPN released its FPI for the 2025 season earlier this week. Within those ratings, we have conference championship chances and the likelihood that a team reaches six or more wins. As a reminder, here is how ESPN describes the methodology behind its Football Power Index: The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete. The ratings span the entire college football landscape, but you can also sort by specific conferences. In such a crowded Big 12, it is essential to focus on how the 16 teams stack up. With that in mind, here are ESPN's FPI's record predictions for every Big 12 football team in 2025, ordered from lowest to highest. They're also compared with our recent win-loss projections for each team after spring camp. Projected Win-Loss: 4.8-7.2 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12) FPI Rating: -3.7 (No. 75 overall) Houston is one of the few teams where our prediction differs from FPI. The Cougars hold the easiest conference schedule in the Big 12 and the No. 15 easiest overall schedule. ESPN's FPI gives Houston a 34.8% chance to win six games, and I think they get there. 15. Arizona Wildcats Projected Win-Loss: 4.9-7.1 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) FPI Rating: -1.0 (No. 69 overall) Arizona does not have high expectations going into 2025. Brent Brennan's team does have Noah Fifita under center, but other than him, the talent cabinet is bleak. 14. West Virginia Mountaineers Projected Win-Loss: 5.2-6.9 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) FPI Rating: 0.5 (No. 66 overall) Rich Rodriguez is back in Morgantown, tasked with rebuilding the program. It won't be easy and 2025 should be viewed as a growth year. West Virginia is another team that I see falling short of its SP+ record projection. Projected Win-Loss: 5.5-6.6 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12) FPI Rating: 0.3 (No. 67 overall) Mike Gundy's team should be a lot better than they were last year when it finished last in the Big 12. The Cowboys might not be back to their elite ways, but they should be much improved. 12. Cincinnati Bearcats Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.7 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12) FPI Rating: 3.6 (No. 53 overall) Cincinnati is a difficult team to pin down heading into 2025. Will they improve from their 2024 5-7 record and make a bowl game, or take a step back? They have a few tossups, so anywhere around 6-6 sounds about right. 11. Utah Utes Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.6 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 46 overall) Utah, similar to Oklahoma State, should be a significantly better team than it was in 2024. FPI doesn't think the Utes will be dramatically better, but I see them finishing with a winning record in conference play. Projected Win-Loss: 6.5-5.5 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12) FPI Rating: 4.2 (No. 49 overall) Colorado finishing above Utah would be a surprise, but FPI thinks it is possible. Deion Sanders' Buffaloes team will need to reshape their identity in 2025 with the departures of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. A 9-3 season is unlikely, but with a challenging schedule, becoming bowl-eligible should be considered a major win. 9. Iowa State Cyclones Projected Win-Loss: 6.7-5.4 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 45 overall) I don't see a significant regression from the Cyclones after a program-best 11-win season a year ago. They might not win 11 games again, but Iowa State should remain in the hunt and, at the very least, win seven games. 8. UCF Knights Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-4.9 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12) FPI Rating: 6.9 (No. 37 overall) I just don't see UCF being the eighth-best team in the Big 12. Scott Frost is retooling the roster, and the Knights lost their top player in running back RJ Harvey. Frost likely improves upon last season's 4-8 record, but I don't see them touching seven or eight wins. 7. TCU Horned Frogs Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.2 (No. 32 overall) TCU could win 10 games, or they could win six. Right now, I have them right in the middle with eight projected victories. Of the teams with a better than 5% chance to win the conference, the Horned Frogs have the lowest chance (79.1%) to win six games. 6. Baylor Bears Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.0 (No. 33 overall) Maybe I am too high on Baylor, predicting a 10-win regular season. But after they closed out the 2024 conference slate with six straight wins, there are more wins in the tank. If the Bears sweep their tough nonconference games against Auburn and SMU, then a full-on breakout is possible. Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.3 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 30 overall) I am a big fan of the Jayhawks. Jalon Daniels is a talented quarterback who can win you a few games by himself. Lance Leipold's squad should be the most improved team in the conference. 4. Texas Tech Red Raiders Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.2 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 7.4 (No. 35 overall) I think Texas Tech could win the Big 12 and more. They brought in the nation's No. 1 transfer portal class and have an experienced quarterback, Behren Morton, set to take another step forward. 3. BYU Cougars Projected Win-Loss: 8.0-4.2 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 29 overall) The Big 12 becomes very crowded at the top with several teams projected around the same record. BYU is one of those teams, and they own a very manageable schedule. A three-game stretch against Utah, Iowa State and Texas Tech will determine if the Cougars play for the Big 12 title in December. 2. Arizona State Sun Devils Projected Win-Loss: 8.3-3.9 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12) FPI Rating: 9.5 (No. 24 overall) The Sun Devils won't fly under the radar anymore after winning the Big 12 in 2024. Sam Leavitt is a star at quarterback and Kenny Dillingham is an ascending young coach. The schedule is not too difficult, making another 10-win year within reach. Projected Win-Loss: 8.6-3.7 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 10.8 (No. 21 overall) The Big 12 title favorite according to FPI and a solid top 20 team in the country. Kansas State might have the best quarterback in the Big 12 (Avery Johnson) and head coach Chris Klieman, who seems to only win football games. That is a potent combination, making the Wildcats deserving to be talked about as the top team in the conference going into the season.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Players to watch next season in the Big 12 Conference
Players in the Big 12 Conference this spring who could have big impacts for their teams in the fall: Arizona QB Noah Fifita had a superb first season after becoming the starting quarterback in 2023, throwing for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns with six interceptions while setting a school record with a 72.4% completion rate. He threw for 2,958 yards with 18 TDs last season, but his interception total doubled and he completed only 60.5% of his passes. Advertisement Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson was one of the Big 12's best wideouts last season, but missed the conference championship game and CFP quarterfinal game after a left shoulder injury in the regular-season finale. He had 29 catches for 444 yards the last three games, finishing with 75 catches for 1,101 yards and 10 TDs overall. He went through spring practice after surgery. Baylor LB Keaton Thomas played one game at West Virginia in 2022, then went to junior college for one season before having 114 tackles last year for the Bears. The linebacker had four games with at least 10 tackles while teaming up with Matt Jones to give the Bears their first duo of 100-tackle players since 2012. Jones is now gone after six seasons in Waco. Advertisement BYU QB Jake Retzlaff made major strides at quarterback last season, throwing for 2,947 yards with 20 touchdowns and showing a knack for putting together late game-winning drives on multiple occasions. BYU can challenge for a Big 12 title if Retzlaff can improve on his accuracy. He had 12 interceptions last season while only completing 57.9% of his pass attempts. Cincinnati Nose tackle Dontay Corleone has 110 tackles (55 solo) and 9 1/2 sacks in his 34 games the past three seasons, and played last year after dealing with a blood clots in his lungs that forced him to miss the opener. The 6-foot-1, 325-pounder known as 'The Godfather' opted to return for his senior year with Cincinnati, part of the four-team College Football Playoff in 2021 but 8-16 in its two Big 12 seasons. Advertisement Colorado Kaidon Salter and Julian Lewis are believed to be the frontrunners at QB from the departed Shedeur Sanders. The Buffaloes will need multiple players to replace Heisman Trophy winner and two-way standout Travis Hunter, the second overall pick in the NFL draft. RJ Johnson, who played mostly on special teams last year after transferring from Arkansas, appears to be in line to be Hunter's replacement at cornerback. Among the receivers who could try to fill Hunter's void on offense are Omarion Miller, who missed the last seven games in 2024 due to injury, and Dre'lon Miller, who as a true freshman last season started the opener. Houston Former five-star QB recruit Conner Weigman is getting a fresh start while being among a dozen players added to Houston's offense. He passed for 2,694 yards with 19 TDs and seven interceptions in 15 games with Texas A&M the past three seasons, but had a season-ending foot injury two years ago and sustained a shoulder injury in the opener last year. He has two seasons of eligibility remaining. Advertisement Iowa State East Carolina transfer WR Chase Sowell is a major addition to an Iowa State offense that lost a pair of 1,000-yard receivers: Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel were both drafted by the Houston Texans. The 6-foot-4, 195-pound Sowell is out of the Higgins mold. The redshirt junior had 81 catches for 1,300 yards and four TDs the past two seasons with the Pirates after starting his career at Colorado. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has had a history of meteoric success and injury-filled low points while starting 33 games for the Jayhawks the past five seasons. He did start all 12 games last season and struggled before leading the Jayhawks to three consecutive wins over ranked opponents, but also was limited in spring practice after what was called a minor knee surgery. He threw for 2,454 yards and 14 TDs, but also had 12 interceptions last season. He will be behind an offensive line that lost a lot of experience. Advertisement Kansas State Avery Johnson showed flashes of brilliance in his first season as K-State's starting quarterback, throwing for 2,712 yards with 25 TDs, and also running for 605 yards and seven scores. But he struggled with inconsistency. Can he thrive with Matt Wells taking over as offensive coordinator? Johnson will be relying on a new group of wide receivers this season with transfers Jaron Tibbs, Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford. Oklahoma State Rodney Fields had a 74-yard touchdown run in Oklahoma State's spring game. The running back had 21 carries for 99 yards, and two catches for 23 yards in four games last year, maintaining his freshman status while Ollie Gordon II played his final season. Fields' quickness and versatility should be a good fit in new offensive coordinator Doug Meacham's system, and a boost for a team with only one returning offensive starter. Advertisement TCU Idaho transfer Jordan Dwyer could fill a big hole for the Horned Frogs, who had receivers Jack Bech and Savion Williams both taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Dwyer had 78 catches for 1,192 yards and 12 TDs for the Vandals last season, with at least 100 yards receiving in four of the last five games. He had 11 catches for 189 yards and two TDs in an FCS playoff game last fall. Texas Tech Terrance Carter Jr. was the top tight end in the Sun Belt last season before transferring to Texas Tech, where he has two seasons of eligibility. Carter had 76 catches for 944 yards and seven TDs the past two seasons for the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana-Lafayette. The Red Raiders' top two tight ends last season exhausted their eligibility. Advertisement UCF Myles Montgomery, now in his fifth college season, gets his shot at being the top running back. He first backed up 1,000-yard rusher Corey Kiner at Cincinnati before transferring to UCF last season behind 1,577-yard rusher R.J. Harvey, who also ran for 22 TDs. Montgomery had 293 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.7 yards on his 51 carries last season for the Knights. He also had three catches for 66 yards and a score. Utah Dual-threat QB Devon Dampier followed offensive coordinator Jason Beck from New Mexico, and beat out Isaac Wilson for the Utes' starting job in spring practice. Dampier had a breakout season with the Lobos last year, throwing for 2,768 yards and 12 touchdowns while rushing for 1,166 yards with 19 TDs. Dampier will need to improve his accuracy to give Utah's offense a similar boost this fall. He completed just 58% of his passes last season while also throwing 12 interceptions. Advertisement West Virginia DL Jimmori Robinson. The 6-5 Robinson amassed 10 1/2 sacks and 17 tackles for loss as a linebacker at UTSA last season, and was named the American Athletic Conference's defensive player of the year. He had 15 sacks and 30 TFLS in 42 games over the past four seasons in San Antonio. ___ AP college football: and
Associated Press
29-04-2025
- Sport
- Associated Press
Players to watch next season in the Big 12 Conference
Players in the Big 12 Conference this spring who could have big impacts for their teams in the fall: Arizona QB Noah Fifita had a superb first season after becoming the starting quarterback in 2023, throwing for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns with six interceptions while setting a school record with a 72.4% completion rate. He threw for 2,958 yards with 18 TDs last season, but his interception total doubled and he completed only 60.5% of his passes. Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson was one of the Big 12's best wideouts last season, but missed the conference championship game and CFP quarterfinal game after a left shoulder injury in the regular-season finale. He had 29 catches for 444 yards the last three games, finishing with 75 catches for 1,101 yards and 10 TDs overall. He went through spring practice after surgery. Baylor LB Keaton Thomas played one game at West Virginia in 2022, then went to junior college for one season before having 114 tackles last year for the Bears. The linebacker had four games with at least 10 tackles while teaming up with Matt Jones to give the Bears their first duo of 100-tackle players since 2012. Jones is now gone after six seasons in Waco. BYU QB Jake Retzlaff made major strides at quarterback last season, throwing for 2,947 yards with 20 touchdowns and showing a knack for putting together late game-winning drives on multiple occasions. BYU can challenge for a Big 12 title if Retzlaff can improve on his accuracy. He had 12 interceptions last season while only completing 57.9% of his pass attempts. Cincinnati Nose tackle Dontay Corleone has 110 tackles (55 solo) and 9 1/2 sacks in his 34 games the past three seasons, and played last year after dealing with a blood clots in his lungs that forced him to miss the opener. The 6-foot-1, 325-pounder known as 'The Godfather' opted to return for his senior year with Cincinnati, part of the four-team College Football Playoff in 2021 but 8-16 in its two Big 12 seasons. ColoradoKaidon Salter and Julian Lewis are believed to be the frontrunners at QB from the departed Shedeur Sanders. The Buffaloes will need multiple players to replace Heisman Trophy winner and two-way standout Travis Hunter, the second overall pick in the NFL draft. RJ Johnson, who played mostly on special teams last year after transferring from Arkansas, appears to be in line to be Hunter's replacement at cornerback. Among the receivers who could try to fill Hunter's void on offense are Omarion Miller, who missed the last seven games in 2024 due to injury, and Dre'lon Miller, who as a true freshman last season started the opener. Houston Former five-star QB recruit Conner Weigman is getting a fresh start while being among a dozen players added to Houston's offense. He passed for 2,694 yards with 19 TDs and seven interceptions in 15 games with Texas A&M the past three seasons, but had a season-ending foot injury two years ago and sustained a shoulder injury in the opener last year. He has two seasons of eligibility remaining. Iowa State East Carolina transfer WR Chase Sowell is a major addition to an Iowa State offense that lost a pair of 1,000-yard receivers: Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel were both drafted by the Houston Texans. The 6-foot-4, 195-pound Sowell is out of the Higgins mold. The redshirt junior had 81 catches for 1,300 yards and four TDs the past two seasons with the Pirates after starting his career at Colorado. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has had a history of meteoric success and injury-filled low points while starting 33 games for the Jayhawks the past five seasons. He did start all 12 games last season and struggled before leading the Jayhawks to three consecutive wins over ranked opponents, but also was limited in spring practice after what was called a minor knee surgery. He threw for 2,454 yards and 14 TDs, but also had 12 interceptions last season. He will be behind an offensive line that lost a lot of experience. Kansas State Avery Johnson showed flashes of brilliance in his first season as K-State's starting quarterback, throwing for 2,712 yards with 25 TDs, and also running for 605 yards and seven scores. But he struggled with inconsistency. Can he thrive with Matt Wells taking over as offensive coordinator? Johnson will be relying on a new group of wide receivers this season with transfers Jaron Tibbs, Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford. Oklahoma State Rodney Fields had a 74-yard touchdown run in Oklahoma State's spring game. The running back had 21 carries for 99 yards, and two catches for 23 yards in four games last year, maintaining his freshman status while Ollie Gordon II played his final season. Fields' quickness and versatility should be a good fit in new offensive coordinator Doug Meacham's system, and a boost for a team with only one returning offensive starter. TCU Idaho transfer Jordan Dwyer could fill a big hole for the Horned Frogs, who had receivers Jack Bech and Savion Williams both taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Dwyer had 78 catches for 1,192 yards and 12 TDs for the Vandals last season, with at least 100 yards receiving in four of the last five games. He had 11 catches for 189 yards and two TDs in an FCS playoff game last fall. Texas Tech Terrance Carter Jr. was the top tight end in the Sun Belt last season before transferring to Texas Tech, where he has two seasons of eligibility. Carter had 76 catches for 944 yards and seven TDs the past two seasons for the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana-Lafayette. The Red Raiders' top two tight ends last season exhausted their eligibility. UCF Myles Montgomery, now in his fifth college season, gets his shot at being the top running back. He first backed up 1,000-yard rusher Corey Kiner at Cincinnati before transferring to UCF last season behind 1,577-yard rusher R.J. Harvey, who also ran for 22 TDs. Montgomery had 293 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.7 yards on his 51 carries last season for the Knights. He also had three catches for 66 yards and a score. Utah Dual-threat QB Devon Dampier followed offensive coordinator Jason Beck from New Mexico, and beat out Isaac Wilson for the Utes' starting job in spring practice. Dampier had a breakout season with the Lobos last year, throwing for 2,768 yards and 12 touchdowns while rushing for 1,166 yards with 19 TDs. Dampier will need to improve his accuracy to give Utah's offense a similar boost this fall. He completed just 58% of his passes last season while also throwing 12 interceptions. West Virginia LB Jimmori Robinson. The 6-5 Robinson amassed 10 1/2 sacks and 17 tackles for loss at UTSA last season, and was named the American Athletic Conference's defensive player of the year. He had 15 sacks and 30 TFLS in 42 games over the past four seasons in San Antonio. ___ AP college football: and
