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Indian Express
5 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
What explains Donald Trump's Russia u-turn?
In an interview given to the BBC this week, United States President Donald Trump said he was 'disappointed in' Russia's leader Vladimir Putin, even though he was 'not [yet] done with him'. Asked if he still trusted President Putin, Trump said he trusted 'almost nobody'. Hours earlier, Trump had announced he planned to send weapons to Ukraine and threatened severe tariffs on Russia if there was no ceasefire deal in 50 days. During the interview, Trump endorsed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the anti-Russia Western alliance that he has previously described as obsolete. Almost on cue, NATO chief Mark Rutte warned India, China, and Brazil that they could be 'hit very hard' with economic penalties if they continued to do business with Russia 'and buy their oil and gas'. Rutte 'encouraged' the leaders of these countries to 'tell [Putin] that he has to get serious about peace talks [to end the war in Ukraine], because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way'. A change of heart Trump's statements demonstrate a remarkable turnaround from his position this May, when he described Putin as a 'nice gentleman', and defended the Russian President on some occasions. At a disastrous White House meeting, he berated Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a 'dictator' who was 'gambling with World War III'. Trump also choked US military supplies to Ukraine, and stopped US intelligence-sharing with the Ukrainian government. In startling contrast, the US President has made increasingly angry comments about the Russian President this past week. His publicly expressed frustration with Putin marks a significant departure from the way he has so far viewed the war in Ukraine. Trump's seeming change of heart could also be a lifeline for NATO. America's European partners have been concerned about Trump's commitment to Article 5 of the treaty — the principle of collective defence, which means that an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all. Putin has got 50 days to negotiate, and NATO has got a lifeline in the process. Europe, apprehensive of the future of the transatlantic alliance, seems to have regained some unexpected goodwill with Trump. The President has also sanctioned US-made artillery shells and mobile rocket artillery systems for Ukraine, and there has been some talk of shipping Patriot missiles to Kyiv. Zelenskyy has said he has discussed 'weapons supplies and strengthening air defence' with Trump's Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg. Trump has also reportedly approved key Ukrainian requests for military aid 'based on a detailed list that Zelenskyy handed him last month when they met [during the NATO summit] in The Hague'. Impatience, uncertainty The turn in Trump's attitude has been seen as resulting from Putin's increasing demands — not only does Russia want to keep the Ukrainian territories that it currently occupies and a ban on Ukraine's membership of NATO, but also the removal of Zelenskyy. Trump, who is impatient to show the world that he has stopped the war in Ukraine and aspires for the Nobel Peace Prize, possibly feels slighted that he hasn't got anything from Putin yet. What Trump certainly does not want is to be seen to be 'weak' — and to be mocked for allowing himself to be played by the Russian President. That said, it is simply too early to say that Trump has definitively changed his view of Putin. America's leader is famously unpredictable — his disappointment with his Russian counterpart could well be momentary and temporary, and he is entirely capable of reverting to praising Putin and berating Zelenskyy. Dealing with Trump What is the message for India in all of this? From the perspective of New Delhi, as it negotiates with Trump and his team — be it on trade or on Pakistan — the instructive learning is to stay the course. There are two things that matter. FIRST, as NATO and Europe have shown, it is important to build one's own capacities. As Trump appeared ready to abandon their relationship, Europe increased its military spending, rallied around Zelenskyy, and doubled down on its support to Ukraine. It is important for India to ensure that its national political and economic interests remain paramount. On the US demand for concessions on tariff and non-tariff barriers in the negotiations for a trade deal, New Delhi must stay focused on what is good for its own interests. If some tariff walls and barriers need a relook, India must consider that not for America's or any other country's benefit, but as part of its own reforms. SECOND, the US President needs to be engaged diplomatically and officially, but also through unofficial and informal channels. This is something that Pakistan has been seeking to do by engaging with Trump's inner circle of family and advisors. Some European leaders too have done the same by playing golf with the President, or by praising and feting him. New Delhi will have an opportunity to engage with the President if he travels to India for the Quad leaders' summit later this year. While that will be the official track, the Indian establishment is well-placed to engage with him through its networks in the Indian diaspora. The Trump White House has its own informal layers of engagement through family and trusted advisors, and South Block may have to make use of those channels of communication to get through to the President. In this context, New Delhi can perhaps learn a thing or two from Zelenskyy. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
Time of India
6 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
MEA flags NATO's double standards
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The external affairs ministry on Thursday cautioned against "double standards" while pushing back against the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ( NATO ) secretary general Mark Rutte's threat of possible secondary sanctions on India for maintaining trade ties with Russia."We have seen reports on the subject and are closely following the developments. Let me reiterate that securing the energy needs of our people is understandably an overriding priority for us," spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said during the weekly media briefing here. "In this endeavour, we are guided by what is available in the markets and also by prevailing global circumstances. We would particularly caution against any double standards on the matter." MEA said it had been in "constant touch with local authorities" in Yemen and was providing "all possible assistance" in the case of Nimisha Priya, an Indian nurse on death row in the West Asian country. "This is a sensitive matter and the Government of India has been offering all possible assistance," Jaiswal said. MEA said it had appointed a lawyer to assist Priya's family, arranged regular consular access and worked to secure more time to reach a "mutually agreeable solution" with the victim's family. The execution, scheduled for July 16, was postponed following these efforts, which included engagement with friendly foreign governments.
The Print
6 days ago
- Business
- The Print
India slams NATO chief's threat of secondary sanctions, warns against ‘double standards'
The comments by Jaiswal came after Rutte, speaking to the media in Washington, DC, earlier in the week, warned Brazil, India, and China of secondary sanctions the US could impose on them for their continued purchase of Russian energy goods. On Thursday, Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, said at a regular press briefing, 'We have seen reports on the subject and are closely following the developments. Let me reiterate that securing the energy needs of our people is understandably an overriding priority for us. In this endeavour, we are guided by what is on offer in the markets and the prevailing global circumstances. We would particularly caution against any double standards on the matter.' New Delhi: India has slammed comments by the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Mark Rutte, who earlier threatened secondary sanctions on New Delhi over its links to Moscow, warning the Western military alliance against following 'double standards'. 'My encouragement to these three countries, particularly, is if you live now in Beijing, or Delhi, or you're the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard,' Rutte said Tuesday, according to a Bloomberg report. The ex-Prime Minister of the Netherlands added, 'So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, India, and China in a massive way.' Rutte's warning came after US President Donald Trump gave Russian President Vladimir V. Putin an ultimatum Monday—50 days to enter peace talks with Ukraine or face secondary sanctions of up to 100 percent. Secondary sanctions would impact developing countries trading with Russia. For example, India has expanded its purchase of energy goods from Russia, with the purchasing cost of petroleum products in the 2024-2025 financial year crossing $56 billion. A US company paying 100 percent of the duty on Indian goods will, in turn, affect Indian exports to the US. The US remains India's largest export market. In the 2024-2025 financial year, India exported goods worth $86 billion to the US, roughly $50 billion higher than the country receiving the second-largest exports of Indian goods—the United Arab Emirates (UAE). US Senator Lindsey Graham is also working on bipartisan legislation to allow Trump to impose up to 500 percent tariffs on any nation funding the Russian war machine. Moscow launched its attack on Ukraine earlier in February 2022. India, at various times, has faced pressure from the West to cut its ties with Russia, but in the last three years, its imports of petroleum products from Moscow have increased. Trump has attempted various approaches to find an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, first applying pressure on Kyiv to come to the table amid his attempt to negotiate with Putin. In recent weeks, the US President has vented his frustration with Moscow publicly before announcing his support for the transfer of weapons to Ukraine. Under a new deal unveiled Monday, its European allies will purchase arms from the US before exporting them to Kyiv. India has maintained its position that the Russia-Ukraine war can end only through diplomacy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited both countries in 2024. However, threats of applying further economic pressure on Russia under the current trade ties could, in a negative way, impact New Delhi. India is conducting hectic negotiations with the US to reach a mini-trade deal and hopes to reduce the 26 percent additional tariff announced by Trump in April. The two nations have already established a bilateral understanding on contentious issues, such as agriculture and dairy, as reported earlier by ThePrint. The deal will soon be public. (Edited by Madhurita Goswami) Also Read: Canadians who see US as threat tripled since 2019, finds Pew survey
New Straits Times
7 days ago
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Unfazed by Trump, Putin digs in on Ukraine war goals
PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin intends to keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages on his terms for peace, unfazed by United States President Donald Trump's threats of tougher sanctions, and his territorial demands may widen as Russian forces advance, said three sources close to the Kremlin. Putin, who ordered Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022 after eight years of fighting in the country's east between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian troops, believed that Russia's economy and its military were strong enough to weather any additional Western measures, said the sources. Trump on Monday expressed frustration with Putin's refusal to agree to a ceasefire and announced a wave of weapons supplies to Ukraine, including Patriot surface-to-air missile systems. He also threatened further sanctions on Russia unless a peace deal was reached within 50 days. Three Russian sources familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking, said Putin would not stop the war under pressure from the West and believed that Russia — which has survived the toughest sanctions imposed by the West — could endure further economic hardship, including threatened US tariffs targeting buyers of Russian oil. "Putin thinks no one has seriously engaged with him on the details of peace in Ukraine — including the Americans — so he will continue until he gets what he wants," said one source. "Putin values the relationship with Trump and had good discussions with (Steve) Witkoff, but the interests of Russia come above all else," the person added. Putin's conditions for peace included a legally binding pledge that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) would not expand eastwards, Ukrainian neutrality and limits on its armed forces, protection for Russian speakers who lived there, and acceptance of Russia's territorial gains, said the sources. He was also willing to discuss a security guarantee for Ukraine involving major powers, though it was far from clear how this would work, they added. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine will never recognise Russia's sovereignty over its conquered regions and that Kyiv retains the sovereign right to decide whether it wants to join Nato. A second source said Putin considered Moscow's goals far more important than any potential economic losses from Western pressure, and he was not concerned by US threats to impose tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil. Two of the sources said Russia had the upper hand on the battlefield and its economy, geared towards war, was exceeding the production of the US-led Nato alliance in key munitions, like artillery shells. Russia, which already controls nearly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, has advanced some 1,415 sq km in the past three months, according to data from the DeepStateMap, an open-source intelligence map of the conflict. Russia currently controls Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, plus all of the eastern region of Luhansk, more than 70 per cent of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and fragments of Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Putin's public position is that those first five regions — Crimea and the four regions of eastern Ukraine — are now part of Russia and Kyiv must withdraw before there can be peace. Putin could fight on until Ukraine's defences collapsed and widen his territorial ambitions to include more of Ukraine, said the sources. The US says 1.2 million people have been injured or killed in the war. Trump, since returning to the White House in January after promising a swift end to the war, has sought to repair ties with Russia, speaking at least six times by telephone with Putin. Putin portrays the war as a watershed moment in Moscow's relations with the West, which he says humiliated Russia after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union by enlarging Nato and encroaching on what he considers Moscow's sphere of influence, including Ukraine and Georgia. Despite existing sanctions and the cost of fighting Europe's biggest conflict since World War 2, Russia's US$2 trillion economy has performed far better than many in Russia or the West expected. The economic ministry forecasts a slowdown to 2.5 per cent annual growth in 2025 from 4.3 per cent last year. Looking ahead, one of the sources said there was likely to be an escalation of the crisis in coming months. And, he predicted, the war would continue.
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First Post
7 days ago
- Business
- First Post
What Nato chief doesn't know about Russian oil and Europe's dependence on it
Nato chief Mark Rutte has now asked India and China to put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine after US President Donald Trump has threatened Russia with 'biting tariffs' on oil and gas. But Trump's threat to impose tariffs if Russia does not end the war within 50 days will hurt Europe too. Here's why read more US President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russia is being praised by some. Trump, who has seemingly grown disgruntled with Vladimir Putin in recent weeks, has given Russia a 50-day deadline to end the war with Ukraine. Trump has also announced that he will provide Ukraine weapons via North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) – which will finance the deal. Meanwhile, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, who met Trump at the White House, has taken aim at India and China over buying Russian oil. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But what did Rutte say? And what does he not know about Russian oil and Europe's dependence on it? Let's take a closer look at why secondary tariffs over Russian oil will be bad news for Europe What did Rutte say? Rutte on Wednesday warned countries that continue to buy oil and gas from Russia. This includes India, China and Brazil. India has saved billions of dollars buy purchasing crude oil from Russia since 2022. Trump has threatened to impose 'biting' secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on exports of Russian oil unless Moscow and Kyiv reach a peace deal in 50 days. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump backer, had unveiled such a bill last week. Graham called the proposal, which would reportedly allow Trump to impose tariffs as high as 500 per cent, a 'slegdehammer' that would help Trump end the war in Ukraine. 'As for sanctions, the bill which will not only be against Russia, but will also target countries like China and India that buy Russian energy products that finance Putin's war machine," Graham said. India has saved billions of dollars by purchasing Russian crude oil – which is facing sanctions from the West – in the last financial year. Reuters Rutte has now called on leaders these countries to act. 'My encouragement to these three countries, particularly is, if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard,' Rutte said after a meeting with US Senators. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD He said that they ought to pressure Putin to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. 'So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way,' Rutte added. However, such a bill, if passed and signed into law, would also be bad for Europe. Why tariffs over Russian oil will be bad for Europe In the aftermath of the Ukraine war, the West imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Several states including some in the EU have done their best to wean themselves off Russian oil. In May 2022, Russian gas comprised 45 per cent of the EU's imports. That figure has dropped to 19 per cent in 2024. The EU imported 150 billion cubic metres of Russian oil in 2021. That figure has dropped to 52 billion cubic metres in 2024. While the bloc also has plans to completely stop the import of Russian gas by 2027, many nations still remains dependent on Russian gas and refined oil. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD This is mostly routed through other nations. Slovakia and Hungary, who are pro-Moscow, still import Russian gas via pipeline. Fuga Bluemarine crude oil tanker lies at anchor near the terminal Kozmino in Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia. They have opposed the ban on Russian gas. These nations aren't alone either. When it comes to fossil fuels in 2024, France, Austria, Spain, Greece and Italy also replenished Russian coffers. 'Although Russian fossil fuel exports to the West have decreased, glaring loopholes in the sanctions' regime persist', a report from the report from the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) stated in December. In 2024, Russia still comprised 18 per cent of the EU's natural gas imports. The European Union also spends more on Russian oil and gas than it gives financial aid to Ukraine. Though Europe gave $22 billion to Ukraine in 2024, it bought $25 billion worth of fossil fuels from Russia that same year. Trump's announcement comes in the backdrop of Europe's fuel inventories already being at a three-year low. Many European countries have already seen inflation and energy prices spike – resulting in a cost of living crisis. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Experts say reducing Europe's dependence on Russia is no mean feat. As Pawel Czyzak, researcher at the UK-based energy think tank Ember, told DW, 'It has been very difficult for Europe to exit Russian energy fully'. They say it could make Europe plans to build up its fuel supplies ahead of winter more difficult. Meanwhile, Norway, which is Europe's top gas provider is set to cut the supply next month over planned maintenance. Trump's deadline would come at the same time as this work 'which could introduce fresh uncertainty for European gas markets heading into autumn,' Rabobank strategist Florence Schmit was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. It remains to be seen if the EU can stick together when it comes to Russian oil and gas. 'Worried about delay' Meanwhile, Republican US Senator Thom Tillis praised Trump for announcing the steps, but said the 50-day delay "worries" him. He said he was concerned that 'Putin would try to use the 50 days to win the war, or to be better positioned to negotiate a peace agreement after having murdered and potentially collected more ground as a basis for negotiation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'So we should look at the current state of Ukraine today and say, no matter what you do over the next 50 days, any of your gains are off the table,' he added. Rutte said Europe would find the money to ensure Ukraine was in the best possible position in peace talks. He said that under the agreement with Trump, the U.S. would now 'massively' supply Ukraine with weapons 'not just air defense, also missiles, also ammunition paid for by the Europeans.' US President Donald Trump has taken a harsher line on Vladimir Putin recently. Reuters File Asked if long-range missiles for Ukraine were under discussion, Rutte said: 'It is both defensive and offensive. So there's all kinds of weapons, but we have not discussed in detail yesterday with the president. This is really being worked through now by the Pentagon, by the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, together with the Ukrainians.' Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, responding to Trump's remarks, said Moscow 'didn't care'. Medvedev dismissed the threat of a tariff on Russian oil as a 'theatrical ultimatum'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But Medvedev added that Trump's remarks were very 'serious', and that Russia 'needed time to analyse what was said in Washington'. With inputs from agencies
