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Time of India
3 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
North Korea's arsenal fuels Russia's war: Secret arms, troop deployments, and sanctions defied
A new wave of international concern is rising as mounting evidence reveals the depth of North Korea 's military support for Russia's war in Ukraine . According to a landmark report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT)—a coalition of 11 nations including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States—North Korea has supplied Russia with over 20,000 shipping containers of munitions and up to nine million rounds of mixed artillery and rocket launcher ammunition, enabling Moscow to escalate missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical civilian infrastructure. This clandestine partnership, which directly violates United Nations Security Council resolutions, is reshaping the balance of power on the Ukrainian battlefield. A Web of Illicit Arms Transfers The MSMT documented a 'myriad of unlawful activities' between Moscow and Pyongyang. These include not only artillery and missile transfers, but also the delivery of combat vehicles and advanced weaponry. Ukrainian officials have reported that about one-third of recent Russian ballistic missile strikes have involved North Korean-made arms. In exchange, North Korea has received crucial military technology, air defense systems, and refined petroleum products from Russia—often exceeding UN-imposed annual caps. The report also highlights ongoing banking relations and technical cooperation, further entrenching the alliance. Troops on the Front Lines Beyond weapons, North Korea's commitment has extended to manpower. South Korean and Western intelligence estimate that Pyongyang has sent over 10,000 troops to Russia, with thousands reportedly already engaged in combat in Ukraine. Recent deployments included an additional 3,000 soldiers earlier this year, with significant casualties reported among North Korean forces. Live Events This military alliance was formalized in June 2024, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense treaty, vowing to provide immediate military support if either nation is attacked. Both leaders have publicly defended their cooperation: Kim Jong Un declared North Korea's 'unwavering support' for Russia's efforts to 'defend its sovereignty,' framing the partnership as a bulwark against what he calls 'imperialist ambitions' of the West. The repercussions are global. The United States, South Korea, and Japan have condemned the partnership, warning it prolongs the suffering in Ukraine and destabilizes the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, Moscow and Pyongyang continue to deny the arms transfers, despite overwhelming evidence and satellite imagery showing expanded North Korean weapons production facilities. A New Era of Sanctions Evasion With Russia aiding North Korea's missile and satellite programs, and North Korean arms fueling Russia's war machine, the two authoritarian states are openly defying international sanctions. The MSMT warns that this cooperation is likely to expand, posing new challenges for global security and the enforcement of international law. As the war in Ukraine grinds on, the North Korea-Russia axis stands as a stark reminder of how old alliances—and new weapons—are reshaping the world's most dangerous conflicts.
Korea Herald
4 days ago
- Politics
- Korea Herald
North Korea sent heavy guns for 3 brigades, 8,000 workers to Russia in 2024 — more planned: report
North Korea provided enough heavy artillery to arm three Russian brigades and dispatched around 8,000 workers to Russia in 2024 alone, with plans to send thousands more in 2025, according to a report by a Seoul-led multilateral sanctions monitoring group released Thursday. The first-ever topic-specific report penned by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team since its launch in Seoul in October 2024 offered the detailed government-level official confirmation of illicit military cooperation and labor transfers between Pyongyang and Moscow. The findings by the MSMT — established with the participation of 11 member countries, including South Korea, the United States and Japan — pointed to clear violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions. The MSMT was launched as an alternative to the now-defunct UN monitoring panel on North Korea sanctions, which was dissolved following Russia's use of its veto power in April 2024. According to notable new findings in the report, over 200 pieces of heavy artillery — enough to equip three brigades — were transferred in 2024 alone. This included fully assembled military vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers, self-propelled guns and ammunition resupply vehicles. Specifically, the transfers included North Korean-made 170 mm self-propelled artillery and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers. In addition, approximately 9 million shells and multiple rocket launcher rounds were transferred from North Korea to Russia between January and mid-December 2024. The report also found that the weapons were delivered in 49 shipments via Russian cargo vessels from North Korea, then transported by rail from ports in the Russian Far East to ammunition depots in central and western Russia. Since September 2023, more than 20,000 containers worth of shells and related materials have been provided, the report said. In detail, North Korea's military supplies include 82 mm, 122 mm, 130 mm, 152 mm and 170 mm shells used in Russia's D-20 and D-30 towed howitzers, M-30 and M-46 howitzers and D-74 guns. The report also highlighted the transfer of weapons from Russia to North Korea. At least one Pantsir-class combat vehicle was transferred, the report found — indicating that Russia provided North Korea with either an actual Pantsir-S1 mobile air defense system or a comparable system with similar capabilities. North Korea has also been dispatching workers to Russia in violation of UN Security Council Resolutions 2375 and 2397 to illegally earn foreign currency. The report underscores North Korea's plans to send several thousand more workers to Russia in the first half of 2025, with personnel expected to be funneled into the construction, toll processing, IT and health care sectors. In 2024, around 8,000 North Korean workers were already dispatched to Russia. Between December 2024 and February 2025, 481 North Korean workers were sent — 198 in construction and 283 in the textile industry, according to the report. The MSMT has agreed to release topic-specific reports, and the first focuses primarily on unlawful North Korea–Russia military cooperation, consolidating information provided by participating member states and open-source intelligence organizations. "The report will assist with the full implementation of UN sanctions by the international community," read a joint English-language statement from the 11 MSMT member countries, issued on the occasion of the report's release. "With the release of the first MSMT report, we underscore once again our shared determination to fully implement relevant UNSCRs." The MSMT was established with the initiative of Seoul around seven months after Russia, using its veto as a permanent member of the UN Security Council in late March last year, blocked the renewal of the 1718 Committee Panel of Experts' mandate. Since 2009, the Panel of Experts has been tasked with overseeing the enforcement of UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea and issuing biannual reports on sanctions violations. We will continue our efforts to monitor the implementation of UNSCRs on the DPRK and raise awareness of ongoing attempts to violate and evade UN sanctions," the joint statement underscored, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Irish Examiner
17-05-2025
- Irish Examiner
‘No cafes, shops, designer gear, ads, Netflix': Cork woman on her trip to North Korea
For decades, North Korea has been the world's most insular and secular state, allowing in only a trickle of visitors every year, and keeping close tabs on their every movement. Then, in January 2020, it closed its doors completely, with the ruling party blaming the move on the covid pandemic. However, while other countries reopened, North Korea remained completely closed off. It wasn't until 2024 that the country welcomed back its first visitors in years, a small group of Russian tourists, and then earlier this year announced it was reopening its borders. Cork native, Janet Newenham said she immediately jumped at the chance to visit. Janet, who hails from Carrigaline and runs Janet's Journeys, an adventure tour company for mostly solo, female travellers to unusual locations like Uzbekistan and Iraq, said North Korea was always among her must-see destinations. On hearing the country was reopening, she booked her flight two days later. 'I had always told everyone, including my mom and dad, that if North Korea ever opened again, I would drop everything and be on the first flight over and that's exactly what happened. I pretty much booked the first trip to North Korea." However, for a reason that has yet to be explained, in March, the country decided to again shut its borders — this time while Janet was there. We were literally the only tourist group that got into the country. We don't know why they opened and we don't know why they closed, but they closed while we were there and that was actually a little bit scary. "No one really knew what was happening. I mean obviously we managed to get out, but it was nerve-wracking. Janet Newenham with a guard outside the North Korea/Russian Friendship house during her recent trip to North Korea. "They don't have wi-fi in North Korea so you can't contact anyone. You can imagine what people at home were thinking seeing the news that North Korea had closed, knowing that I was over there.' How did Janet even manage to get into the country in the first place? The globetrotter used the services of a specialist tour operator in China, as strict laws prevent tourists in the country from travelling alone when the country is open to visitors. She travelled overland from Yangji in China before taking a bus across the border into North Korea, making her way with fellow travellers to Rason SEZ (Rason Special Economic Zone). Rason is in the northeast of the country, the only part of North Korea that borders both Russia and China. Travelling with about 15 other so-called "extreme tourists", they stayed in Rason Tourist Hotel. Janet said before they entered North Korean they were sent a lengthy list of what they were not permitted to do in North Korea. "We had to delete our Netflix from our phone and any sort of downloads we had upon entering and exiting. North Korean people have their own phones — North Korean-made phones with their own apps. They even have dating profiles. Everything you can imagine is on that phone, but it's a phone you've never seen before. It's literally just like a basic North Korean android phone they can connect with each other on. However, it can't connect to anywhere outside of the country." Other items on the not-allowed list include branded clothing, or religious items. "We were banned from anything that was anti-North Korea. There was also a ban on branded clothing as North Korea doesn't have advertising. There's no religion in North Korea either so you're not allowed anything to do with the bible, or the Quran. There are no crosses or artefacts allowed that have anything to do with religion. She explained the sentiment behind this rule. 'The 'dear leaders' are pretty much gods. Essentially, Kim Jong II is a God to them. Even though he's dead, they still see him as their great leader. It's difficult to wrap your head around.' Pyongyang: 'The word you'd have to use is empty. It was very strange because we never saw that many people. There is no private car ownership. You see a few cars rolling by but they belong to taxi drivers and top-level officials'. Picture: AP /Cha Song Ho Other restrictions include the internet and social media. 'There's no internet but they do have 'intranet', which is a North Korean system used on computers in schools and universities. Nobody can get access to social media unless the North Korean government specifically gives them access to it.' However, certain aspects of pop culture, are not off-limits. 'It's really random what they have and haven't heard of. They have access to some songs and music. They like Abba and most of them have seen Titanic. We got a chance to visit a school and the kids knew about Ireland. They even had a page in their textbooks devoted to it. Some of them asked if I was from 'Cork or Dublin'.' Janet recalls her visit to the school. 'One student told me they wanted to be a teacher when they grow up. Another kid told me they wanted to be a journalist. I told them that was amazing but you can't help but smile to yourself when a North Korean kid tells you that they want to be a journalist. She said conversations with her tour guide were not so open. 'I asked him what his favourite song was, to which he replied 'the national anthem because it's such a beautiful song'. When I asked him what his favourite book was he said it was the manuscript of the constitution of North Korea because 'that's the best book ever'. Everything felt very staged and rehearsed.' "Surprisingly, I was allowed to ask him where he'd like to travel to. His reply was always the same — 'Russia or China because they are our allies'. Charlotte Newenham with the young performers at the Children's Palace in Rason Often referred to as "the hermit kingdom" because of its seclusions, Janet says she was struck by the urban landscape. 'The word you'd have to use is empty. It was very strange because we never saw that many people. There is no private car ownership. You see a few cars rolling by but they belong to taxi drivers and top-level officials. They have traffic lights but no electricity so there's a man standing there directing the traffic. These traffic wardens are quite famous. Even when it's empty they are still moving and directing invisible traffic. It's bizarre because there were four-lane highways in the city with nobody driving in them. While the country is almost devoid of any tourist landmarks, apart from the statues of the Great Leaders, Janet did have the chance to experience the so-called 'Children's Palace'. 'Kim Jong Un has a children's palace where children can come and perform. He claims this is because he puts children first. These children's palaces are like afterschool places where kids can go to dance, sing and perform. They are a lot like Cork Opera House or the Everyman. You are watching 100 kids dance and perform on a stage. "At first glance it's really beautiful until you see this jarring backdrop of a cinema screen behind them playing footage of rockets going off in North Korea and an army stomping around on the street. The whole performance just centered around how great and powerful North Korea is. "The city we were in was a few hours from Pyongyang but the kids were under the impression it was four days away. It made me wonder if they had been misled and that maybe the purpose of this lie was to prevent them from ever trying to leave.' She described how eerie and empty the streets felt, as she and the rest of the group, travelled around Rason by bus and on foot. 'There is nothing,' she told the Irish Examiner. There are no cafes. There are no shopping malls. Advertising is forbidden in North Korea so it doesn't exist. The entire time we were there we didn't see a single billboard. The closest thing to them were the huge signs with positive slogans about North Korea. "We were driving around for an hour, trying to figure out where the shops were. It's difficult to find them because there's no advertising. "Some of them have curtains over the windows so we couldn't see in but the guide wouldn't explain why. There are alcohol shops and clothes shops. The clothes you see on sale are normally dark in colour.' Janet said a visit to North Korean hair salon was a fascinating experience. 'I was told that people living in North Korea are only allowed something like 10 haircuts. I found this really interesting. I wanted to get my hair cut and the guide said I could. However, he kept making excuses. It was really annoying me, but he just wouldn't let me. I think he didn't want me to be alone with the hairdresser. "I probably wasn't supposed to, but on the last day I went to one. It was funny because there was this old fashioned fuzzy television that looked like it was playing soap operas in the background. They have a lot of rules around haircuts in North Korea. One of the rules is that men must have short hair. There's a certain haircut for girls and a certain haircut for boys. Janet Newenham in front of statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. "I lived to tell the tale, but when I got back home my own hairdresser was wondering what had happened to me. She had to take 3cm off because it was so uneven.' She visited statues of Kim Jong Un and Kim Jong II. 'It's protocol when you visit these statues that you go to the flower shop first to lay down flowers for the dear leaders. They only sell fake flowers. I had to laugh because my mom used to be a florist in Cork and she would have been so disgusted by this. North Korea has a pretty barren landscape so there isn't many real flowers there. You had to go in and pay the equivalent of €4 for a bouquet of plastic flowers before queueing up and essentially paying your respects to the dear leaders. You bow and walk away. "After you've left, the people working in the shop take the bouquets that were laid down and bring them back to the shop to resell. It was the same at the Children's Palace. We were asking the guide if we could buy sweets for the children but he told me they 'preferred flowers'. "I've no doubt the kids had to give the flowers back at the end of the night for the shop to resell. It was all quite strange.' Read More Jennifer Horgan: Luxury school trips deepen inequality and strain struggling families
Irish Examiner
17-05-2025
- Irish Examiner
'There are no cafes. There are no shopping malls': Cork woman on her trip to North Korea
For decades, North Korea has been the world's most insular and secular state, allowing in only a trickle of visitors every year, and keeping close tabs on their every movement. Then, in January 2020, it closed its doors completely, with the ruling party blaming the move on the covid pandemic. However, while other countries reopened, North Korea remained completely closed off. It wasn't until 2024 that the country welcomed back its first visitors in years, a small group of Russian tourists, and then earlier this year announced it was reopening its borders. Cork native, Janet Newenham said she immediately jumped at the chance to visit. Janet, who hails from Carrigaline and runs Janet's Journeys, an adventure tour company for mostly solo, female travellers to unusual locations like Uzbekistan and Iraq, said North Korea was always among her must-see destinations. On hearing the country was reopening, she booked her flight two days later. 'I had always told everyone, including my mom and dad, that if North Korea ever opened again, I would drop everything and be on the first flight over and that's exactly what happened. I pretty much booked the first trip to North Korea." However, for a reason that has yet to be explained, in March, the country decided to again shut its borders — this time while Janet was there. We were literally the only tourist group that got into the country. We don't know why they opened and we don't know why they closed, but they closed while we were there and that was actually a little bit scary. "No one really knew what was happening. I mean obviously we managed to get out, but it was nerve-wracking. Janet Newenham with a guard outside the North Korea/Russian Friendship house during her recent trip to North Korea. "They don't have wi-fi in North Korea so you can't contact anyone. You can imagine what people at home were thinking seeing the news that North Korea had closed, knowing that I was over there.' How did Janet even manage to get into the country in the first place? The globetrotter used the services of a specialist tour operator in China, as strict laws prevent tourists in the country from travelling alone when the country is open to visitors. She travelled overland from Yangji in China before taking a bus across the border into North Korea, making her way with fellow travellers to Rason SEZ (Rason Special Economic Zone). Rason is in the northeast of the country, the only part of North Korea that borders both Russia and China. Travelling with about 15 other so-called "extreme tourists", they stayed in Rason Tourist Hotel. Janet said before they entered North Korean they were sent a lengthy list of what they were not permitted to do in North Korea. "We had to delete our Netflix from our phone and any sort of downloads we had upon entering and exiting. North Korean people have their own phones — North Korean-made phones with their own apps. They even have dating profiles. Everything you can imagine is on that phone, but it's a phone you've never seen before. It's literally just like a basic North Korean android phone they can connect with each other on. However, it can't connect to anywhere outside of the country." Other items on the not-allowed list include branded clothing, or religious items. "We were banned from anything that was anti-North Korea. There was also a ban on branded clothing as North Korea doesn't have advertising. There's no religion in North Korea either so you're not allowed anything to do with the bible, or the Quran. There are no crosses or artefacts allowed that have anything to do with religion. She explained the sentiment behind this rule. 'The 'dear leaders' are pretty much gods. Essentially, Kim Jong II is a God to them. Even though he's dead, they still see him as their great leader. It's difficult to wrap your head around.' Pyongyang: 'The word you'd have to use is empty. It was very strange because we never saw that many people. There is no private car ownership. You see a few cars rolling by but they belong to taxi drivers and top-level officials'. Picture: AP /Cha Song Ho Other restrictions include the internet and social media. 'There's no internet but they do have 'intranet', which is a North Korean system used on computers in schools and universities. Nobody can get access to social media unless the North Korean government specifically gives them access to it.' However, certain aspects of pop culture, are not off-limits. 'It's really random what they have and haven't heard of. They have access to some songs and music. They like Abba and most of them have seen Titanic. We got a chance to visit a school and the kids knew about Ireland. They even had a page in their textbooks devoted to it. Some of them asked if I was from 'Cork or Dublin'.' Janet recalls her visit to the school. 'One student told me they wanted to be a teacher when they grow up. Another kid told me they wanted to be a journalist. I told them that was amazing but you can't help but smile to yourself when a North Korean kid tells you that they want to be a journalist. She said conversations with her tour guide were not so open. 'I asked him what his favourite song was, to which he replied 'the national anthem because it's such a beautiful song'. When I asked him what his favourite book was he said it was the manuscript of the constitution of North Korea because 'that's the best book ever'. Everything felt very staged and rehearsed.' "Surprisingly, I was allowed to ask him where he'd like to travel to. His reply was always the same — 'Russia or China because they are our allies'. Charlotte Newenham with the young performers at the Children's Palace in Rason Often referred to as "the hermit kingdom" because of its seclusions, Janet says she was struck by the urban landscape. 'The word you'd have to use is empty. It was very strange because we never saw that many people. There is no private car ownership. You see a few cars rolling by but they belong to taxi drivers and top-level officials. They have traffic lights but no electricity so there's a man standing there directing the traffic. These traffic wardens are quite famous. Even when it's empty they are still moving and directing invisible traffic. It's bizarre because there were four-lane highways in the city with nobody driving in them. While the country is almost devoid of any tourist landmarks, apart from the statues of the Great Leaders, Janet did have the chance to experience the so-called 'Children's Palace'. 'Kim Jong Un has a children's palace where children can come and perform. He claims this is because he puts children first. These children's palaces are like afterschool places where kids can go to dance, sing and perform. They are a lot like Cork Opera House or the Everyman. You are watching 100 kids dance and perform on a stage. "At first glance it's really beautiful until you see this jarring backdrop of a cinema screen behind them playing footage of rockets going off in North Korea and an army stomping around on the street. The whole performance just centered around how great and powerful North Korea is. "The city we were in was a few hours from Pyongyang but the kids were under the impression it was four days away. It made me wonder if they had been misled and that maybe the purpose of this lie was to prevent them from ever trying to leave.' She described how eerie and empty the streets felt, as she and the rest of the group, travelled around Rason by bus and on foot. 'There is nothing,' she told the Irish Examiner. There are no cafes. There are no shopping malls. Advertising is forbidden in North Korea so it doesn't exist. The entire time we were there we didn't see a single billboard. The closest thing to them were the huge signs with positive slogans about North Korea. "We were driving around for an hour, trying to figure out where the shops were. It's difficult to find them because there's no advertising. "Some of them have curtains over the windows so we couldn't see in but the guide wouldn't explain why. There are alcohol shops and clothes shops. The clothes you see on sale are normally dark in colour.' Janet said a visit to North Korean hair salon was a fascinating experience. 'I was told that people living in North Korea are only allowed something like 10 haircuts. I found this really interesting. I wanted to get my hair cut and the guide said I could. However, he kept making excuses. It was really annoying me, but he just wouldn't let me. I think he didn't want me to be alone with the hairdresser. "I probably wasn't supposed to, but on the last day I went to one. It was funny because there was this old fashioned fuzzy television that looked like it was playing soap operas in the background. They have a lot of rules around haircuts in North Korea. One of the rules is that men must have short hair. There's a certain haircut for girls and a certain haircut for boys. Janet Newenham in front of statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. "I lived to tell the tale, but when I got back home my own hairdresser was wondering what had happened to me. She had to take 3cm off because it was so uneven.' She visited statues of Kim Jong Un and Kim Jong II. 'It's protocol when you visit these statues that you go to the flower shop first to lay down flowers for the dear leaders. They only sell fake flowers. I had to laugh because my mom used to be a florist in Cork and she would have been so disgusted by this. North Korea has a pretty barren landscape so there isn't many real flowers there. You had to go in and pay the equivalent of €4 for a bouquet of plastic flowers before queueing up and essentially paying your respects to the dear leaders. You bow and walk away. "After you've left, the people working in the shop take the bouquets that were laid down and bring them back to the shop to resell. It was the same at the Children's Palace. We were asking the guide if we could buy sweets for the children but he told me they 'preferred flowers'. "I've no doubt the kids had to give the flowers back at the end of the night for the shop to resell. It was all quite strange.' Read More Jennifer Horgan: Luxury school trips deepen inequality and strain struggling families
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Can Russia's war machine survive without outside aid?
More than three years since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's defense industry has adapted to a new normal. Despite a web of international sanctions designed to cripple military production, factories across the country have been able to keep building bullets and shells, drones and military vehicles. The resulting arms are not top-of-the-range military systems. But they are, simply put, enough. "Russia's military-industrial complex has been providing the armed forces just about enough of what they need at any given time," says Mathieu Boulegue, a consulting fellow for the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House and a non-resident senior fellow at CEPA. "Things don't have to be great; not everything needs to be functioning or running. You just need to have them accessible for the armed forces at the right moment and in the right place." This "good enough" system of military supplies, however, is still reliant on outside help. A global web of parallel imports allows Russia to procure components via third countries who have not agreed to sanction measures — a group that includes countries across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as larger economies such as India and China. Other countries supply Russia directly with weapons systems and munitions. An investigation published by Reuters and the Open Source Center (OSС) in mid-April found that the majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea. In some Russian military units, between 75% and 100% of artillery shells are North Korean-made, the report said. But if this intervention results in "just enough," then could cutting outside supplies destroy Russian military production completely? Military supply chains are complex. Even basic weapon systems and munitions require a long list of components, although not all of these parts are restricted or difficult to obtain. Cotton remains unsanctioned, even though cotton cellulose is a vital part of making bullets and munitions. Higher-tech components such as microchips and semiconductors, however, are more difficult to acquire — and this is where Russia's third-country connections prove vital. "Many of the semiconductors employed on Russian missiles and drones being used to attack Ukraine today were manufactured in 2024, which suggests that they lack significant inventories of smuggled components," says Dr. Marc de Vore, a senior lecturer at the University of St Andrews, a fellow at the Council for Geostrategy, and a fellow at the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Center. Russia still imports a wide range of machine tools, parts, and components: from metal-working centers to electronics and fuel filters. Semiconductors are vital in the manufacture of drones and missiles. Some countries, such as North Korea and Iran, are happy to provide military systems to Russia outright. Others supply the equipment needed to produce military equipment and vehicles. "Russia's military industry has been dependent on the global supply chains for decades. As for today, Russia still imports a wide range of machine tools, parts, and components: from metal-working centers to electronics and fuel filters," says Pavel Luzin, an analyst for Riddle Russia and a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). In a post-sanctions world, Russia has been able to substitute the components it once imported from Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States with those from China, India, and elsewhere. "The cost of these new supplies is usually much higher, and the quality is lower," Luzin says. "(But) Russia's army uses everything it has. The only limiting factor here is the number of arms. The army doesn't care much about how and when the new weapons will be produced, it just has needs and requirements." Even more, governments aid Moscow simply by turning a blind eye. Laws passed in Russia in May 2022 allow sanctioned items to be imported into Russia without approval from trademark owners — they only need to be redirected to a third country before being re-exported to Russia itself. The so-called "parallel import" schemes prop up Russia's wartime economy by channeling consumer goods to the country's middle classes. But materials that can be used in military production also arrive through these channels — including "dual-purpose" items that may not be intended for army use but can be cannibalized for parts and used in military production. Such schemes are big business. While exact data is hard to come by, between May and December 2022, Moscow reported importing some 2.4 million tons of goods worth $20 billion via parallel imports, meaning in violation of copyrights and without the approval from trademark owners. The potential to profit from such trade means that there is no shortage of countries willing to look the other way. Large quantities of parallel imports have been reported from countries across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as Türkiye and the UAE. Boulegue says Russia has poured considerable resources into building such alternative supply chains, which are often dependent on illegal networks. "Since the Soviet era, (Russia has) been extremely good at keeping a network of agents abroad through espionage and intelligence," he says. "They reactivated this network of people to continue importing all these components and hardware that can be used for the military industry illegally." With the first sanctions passed against Russia more than a decade ago, when Moscow annexed Ukrainian Crimea, there has been plenty of time to plan for supply route backups. "The Russian authorities established a central database with every piece of equipment or component that goes into each individual Russian weapon system that fits into the army," Boulegue says. "From that list, they started establishing plans: plan A, plan B, plan C, whether they could get hold of it through domestic production, imports, parallel import, illegal import, and so on." But what would happen if these supply lines were broken and Russia's military producers could no longer receive much-needed imports? So far, Moscow has been relatively successful in ramping up its domestic production. Military plants have been able to offer new positions with higher wages to attract workers, particularly in Russia's poorer regions. Assembly lines have also kicked up a gear, with workers reporting "round-the-clock production" during high-level official visits. Russia's military producers are also adapting their own equipment and machinery. "Russia has invested in machine tooling for producing nitrocellulose (which can be used to power munitions) using wood pulp, as opposed to cotton, which will decrease their long-term dependence on cotton cellulose," De Vore says. The Kremlin has also been able to leverage stored Soviet-era military equipment. Even machinery and vehicles produced in the 1950s have been retrofitted to play a battlefield role, with the British Defense Ministry reporting that T-62 tanks, first introduced in 1954, had been seen in the field. Yet, not even these stockpiles can last forever. A report by open-source research group Oryx in February 2025 found that Russia's armed forces have already lost more than half of their available military hardware, and approximately 50% of equipment lost had come from Soviet stocks. Other weapon-tracking projects have posted similar findings. In the longer term, Russia's military production rates would fall, forcing the army to prioritize certain weapon systems. "Imagine that instead of 1,000 microchips, you only have 100," Boulegue says. "You will have an internal struggle to determine who has priority." Russia's military-industrial complex would also attempt to adapt to this new reality. A disrupted supply of semiconductors would likely see producers redesigning drones and missiles to use Chinese-designed components that would be easier to procure, De Vore says. But this would be no quick fix. "(Adapting drones to use Chinese components) would take substantial time and engineering hours: it takes about three months of engineering hours to redesign one system around a different semiconductor of equal capacity," De Vore says. "During key offensives, they would likely also rely more on fixed-wing jets to drop bombs, which would lead to increased aircraft losses." All this means that if Moscow is forced to rely solely on internal production, it can expect to face difficult decisions. Production capacity could be increased, but only by reforging the economy and placing it on a wartime footing. This would include using factories formerly producing consumer goods to start building weapons or other items for military use. Without this kind of all-consuming societal shift, Russia's military production would not be able to survive. "Russia is able to cope under the current conditions because they've already absorbed the initial shock sanctions in 2014 and the second shock of 2022," Boulegue says. "They are able to sustain a form of continuity in production with all these schemes in place, internal and foreign. If we remove the foreign parts, then the internal part collapses completely because they will definitely not be able to keep up with the demands of the war." Unraveling the web of supply chains used by Russia to feed its military industrial complex is a daunting task. But there are steps that the world can take to put further pressure on Moscow's war machine. An obvious step is further sanctions. These could crack down on the range of products that Russia can import legally and extend to punish secondary or tertiary companies that provide Moscow with components. "If we know there is cotton needed for the bullets, why don't we sanction the cotton industry in Russia? Why don't we make cotton imports to Russia forbidden?" Boulegue says. "Yes, it's a huge undertaking. But we've been placing countries under sanction for years. It's a question of scaling it up." Luzin agrees that further sanctions could be effective. "Sanctions have already damaged the arms industry of Russia hard. (But) further pressure needs to be increased," he says. "For instance, India must follow the embargo on supplying metal-working machine tools in Russia." There are also other avenues for pressure. Moscow's oil exports could be cut crucially if restrictions were put on tankers carrying Russian oil. This would put huge pressure on Russia's ability to replenish the foreign currency reserves it uses to buy military components. "Go after the shadow fleet, lower the price cap, and convince other states (such as India) to apply the (Western-agreed) price cap (on oil purchases from Russia), and one might tip Russia's economy into overheating," De Vore says. But just as Russia's military production could depend on how far Moscow is willing to go in commandeering civilian infrastructure, there's also the question of which steps the West is willing to take. Intermediate-range ballistic missile strikes on factories and R&D institutes in Russia's European segment is another route that Kyiv could take to destroy the weapons being fired at Ukraine — yet it is not an option that allies wish to support. We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
