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India's stakes in the coming Arctic Rush
In March, Russian ambassador to India Denis Alipov addressed a conference on the somewhat arcane topic of 'Uniting North and South for Sustainable Development in the Arctic' in New Delhi. Jointly organised by Russia's Northern Forum and the Vivekananda International Foundation, the conference was attended by representatives of government agencies, as well as scientific and academic institutions. Also represented was the Republic of Yakutia, the largest Russian/Siberian province with an Arctic Sea coast.
Highlighting the favourable prospects for Indo-Russian cooperation in the development of the Arctic regions, including collaboration in energy exploration and exploiting the full potential of Arctic sea routes, the ambassador expressed concern over the 'growing militarisation of the Arctic'. According to him, collaboration with India in research on multiple polar scientific disciplines, including Arctic influences on monsoon dynamics, would be mutually beneficial.
While the polar regions may not figure prominently in the popular imagination, India's scientific community — with full political support — has been engaged in polar research since 1981. Reflecting its growing scientific commitment to understanding atmospheric science, the climate crisis, glaciology, and polar biology, the Goa-based National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research has been implementing India's policy for polar studies.
India established its first research base in Antarctica, Dakshin Gangotri, way back in 1983-84, with Maitri and Bharati constructed later. In the Arctic, India's scientific endeavours began in 2008 with the establishment of the research station, Himadri, in Ny-Alesund in Norway's Svalbard archipelago. India has, subsequently, become an observer in the Arctic Council, an inter-governmental body, comprising the five 'Arctic nations', Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the US, plus neighbouring Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. The significance of India's early, active interest in polar affairs is best understood vis-à-vis the approach adopted by other nations.
In August 2007, Russia sent a research ship to the North Pole, where a mini-submarine made a record-breaking dive to 13,000 feet below the ice and, in a dramatic gesture reminiscent of 16th-century imperial conquests, planted a titanium Russian flag on the seabed. Apart from the scientific and technological significance of this venture, Russia's objective was to stake an early claim to the Arctic's continental shelf with its embedded hydrocarbon and mineral wealth.
China, identifying itself as a near-Arctic State, has been undertaking scientific exploration for many years and has also acquired observer status in the Arctic Council. While eyeing the Arctic as a potential source of valuable natural resources, China looks forward to establishing a Polar Silk Route through these waters. China's ambitious programme to build ice-breakers, ships essential for cutting a safe path through polar ice, for merchant shipping, is an indication of its Arctic ambitions.
Surrounded by Eurasia and North America, the Arctic is the smallest and shallowest of the world's water bodies recognised as an ocean with two main outlets — one of the outlets is into the Atlantic through the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GI-UK) gap, and the other through the Bering Strait that separates American Alaska from Russian Siberia. Due to low salinity, the Arctic Ocean is covered with a thick layer of sea ice, whose spread fluctuates seasonally, which makes navigation in these waters hazardous for ships.
For centuries, polar waters had remained off-limits except for scientific expeditions. The advent of ballistic-missile nuclear submarines (SSBN) invested them with strategic significance during the Cold War. Since an inter-continental missile launched from the Arctic would have the shortest time of flight to the continental US as well as the Russian heartland, the Soviets had established classical naval bastions for its SSBNs, which NATO maritime forces sought to keep under continuous surveillance. But now, intense jockeying has commenced, not only by the five Arctic nations but also by others seeking to exploit nature's last frontier for its natural wealth. Conflicting claims seek access to what geologists believe are a quarter of the globe's unexploited oil and gas reserves as well as other natural/mineral resources. These are being considered under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Given its techno-economic resurgence, India will soon be the world's second-largest energy consumer after China. With limited hydrocarbon resources, should India's plans for nuclear and renewable energy resources fail to deliver, it will need other options. Under these circumstances, collaboration with Russia, which has been engaged in developing advanced technologies for polar exploration, would be a logical decision.
A second area of intense interest to seafaring and trade-dependent nations is access to two potential sea routes that run across the Arctic, connecting the Pacific to the Atlantic. One is called the North-West Passage, which runs through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago along the coast of North America, and the other is the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along the Siberian coast between the GI-UK Gap and the Bering Strait. So far, both routes have been available only during summer and require the use of ice-breakers. However, with the Arctic ice pack dwindling, it is expected that shipping traffic will be able to use this waterway more freely in the future. Ice-breakers may, however, still be required.
The adoption of this new routing by merchant ships would obviate transit through the Suez and Panama Canal bottlenecks and cut down distances between Europe, the west coast of America, Asia and the Far East by as much as 5,000-6,000 km or 15-20 days sailing, slashing shipping costs. For India, the opening of the NSR would not only bolster energy security but also reinforce its strategic autonomy; by countering, on one hand, China's influence and strengthening, and on the other, ties with Russia, via cooperation in the Arctic.
If US President Donald Trump's obsession with acquiring Greenland is any indicator, an Arctic Gold Rush for economic and strategic advantage is in the offing. This is an opportune moment for India to readily grasp the Russian ambassador's invitation to become 'a strategic partner in the joint development of the Arctic area'.
Arun Prakash is a former chief of naval staff. The views expressed are personal.
