Latest news with #NourielRoubini
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's 'Doctor Doom' tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
Nouriel Roubini's America Atlas Fund has outperformed amid market volatility and inflation risks. Roubini's fund launched in November 2024 and is up 4%. The fund has heavy allocations to short-term Treasurys and gold. On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. A cynical listener could have interpreted his speech as a pitch to buy his product because stocks and bonds would perform poorly. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets." Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's 'Doctor Doom' tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
Nouriel Roubini's America Atlas Fund has outperformed amid market volatility and inflation risks. Roubini's fund launched in November 2024 and is up 4%. The fund has heavy allocations to short-term Treasurys and gold. On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. A cynical listener could have interpreted his speech as a pitch to buy his product because stocks and bonds would perform poorly. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Wall Street's 'Doctor Doom' tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. A cynical listener could have interpreted his speech as a pitch to buy his product because stocks and bonds would perform poorly. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" Putting his money where his mouth is The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets."
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Wall Street's Dr. Doom tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. 'Bad things are going to happen to your stocks and bonds, which is why you need to buy my product' is one way a cynical listener could have interpreted his stump speech. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" Putting his money where his mouth is The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets."
Yahoo
11-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The most powerful people in the world are bond vigilantes, who ‘boxed in' Trump, top economist says
Economist Nouriel Roubini remains bullish on the U.S., even after the tariff-induced market selloff, and has said its fundamental advantages will still be in place, regardless of who is president. That's as so-called bond vigilantes made their presence felt in financial markets after President Donald Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs. Financial markets have been swinging on President Donald Trump's executive orders, off-the-cuff statements, and social media posts, but traders can flex their muscles too. In fact, bond investors caused Treasury yields to spike after Trump unveiled his steeper-than-expected global tariffs on "Liberation Day" last month. And that market turmoil reportedly spurred him to pause his reciprocal duties for 90 days. The lesson was not lost on Nouriel Roubini, an economist and CEO of the consultancy Roubini Macro Associates, who remains bullish on the U.S. because its fundamental advantages will remain in place, regardless of who is president. "Over the medium term, the fact that the U.S. is very innovative implies that whatever Trump does doesn't matter," he told Bloomberg TV on Thursday. "So tech trumps tariffs. Tech trumps Trump too. And the traders, of course, trump Trump, and they forced him to back down to market discipline. The most powerful people in the world are the bond vigilantes, and so I think he is boxed in." The term 'bond vigilantes' was coined by Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni in the 1980s, referring to traders who protested huge deficits by selling off bonds to push yields higher. The perceived power of bond vigilantes was famously illustrated in the early 1990s, when U.S. yields jumped as investors dumped Treasuries amid fears about federal deficits in what became known as the Great Bond Massacre. James Carville, who was an adviser to President Bill Clinton at the time, mused that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market: 'You can intimidate everyone.' While the U.S. budget deficit is in even worse shape than it was back then, the bond market has also been sensitive to concerns that Trump's aggressive tariffs will inflict long-term damage to the attractiveness of U.S. assets like Treasury debt. Any reduction in demand for U.S. bonds would come as the supply has been soaring, with the Treasury Department needing to find buyers for a massive amount of debt to cover annual deficits that have exploded to $1 trillion and more. For his part, Roubini sees tariffs weighing the U.S. economy and a short, shallow recession by the end of the year. But over the longer term, that impact will be more than offset by technological advances in emerging areas like artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum computing, and fintech, among others. Last month, he estimated that tech innovations will increase U.S. potential growth by 200 basis points from 2% to 4% by 2030, while tariffs would drag down growth by 50 basis points, even assuming a permanent average rate of 15% after negotiations. 'So Tech Trumps Tariffs even if Mickey Mouse or a clown were to run the US! It doesn't matter and American exceptionalism will remain and be resilient regardless of Trump given the hyper dynamism and innovations of the US private sector,' he wrote in a post on X on April 10, a day after Trump announced his 90-day tariff pause. A critical part of Roubini's thesis is that the nature of innovation itself is shifting from producing an 'initial growth spurt that fizzles out over time' to exponential growth that accelerates and gives first-movers enduring advantages versus followers. He pointed to DeepSeek's AI model that shocked Silicon Valley earlier this year, saying it's not a revolution but an evolution that owes its existence to U.S. companies like OpenAI and their years of outsized investments. 'MAG-7, hyperscalers and tech firms (in Nasdaq) could not care less about tariffs,' he added. 'They gotta continue and increase massive Ai capex to avoid becoming obsolete relative to each other.' This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
