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The Sun
5 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
Experts divided over Bangladesh Asean bloc bid
PETALING JAYA: Bangladesh's renewed bid to join Asean has divided opinion among Malaysian experts, with some warning of geopolitical fallout and others highlighting possible strategic and economic gains for Malaysia. The proposal re-emerged after a meeting in Dhaka last week between PKR deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar and Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus, who appealed for Malaysia's support for the South Asian nation's entry into the 10-member regional bloc. But analysts remain split on the viability of the move and its implications for Asean unity and Malaysia's national interests. Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan questioned the logic of including Bangladesh, noting that it lies well outside Asean's traditional geographic boundary. 'Compared with Timor-Leste, which is within the Asean region, Bangladesh is quite distant.' Azmi said a similar proposal to admit Papua New Guinea, supported by Indonesia at last year's Asean Summit, failed to gain traction. 'If Papua New Guinea didn't get support from Asean members, then even less so for Bangladesh,' he said, adding that Dhaka's entry could stir geopolitical sensitivities involving both Pakistan and India. 'Among the 10 Asean member states, I doubt there would be much support for Bangladesh's inclusion. 'In contrast, Timor-Leste had strong backing from Malaysia and Thailand. For Bangladesh, I don't see any member likely to champion its entry.' On the other hand, International Islamic University Malaysia international law and relations expert Assoc Prof Dr Mohd Yazid Zul Kepli said Malaysia could stand to gain strategically from supporting Bangladesh's bid, particularly in trade, energy and maritime security. 'Economically, Malaysia could benefit from greater market access, increased investment flows and labour cooperation, given Bangladesh's large workforce and growing economy.' Still, Mohd Yazid acknowledged the geopolitical risks, particularly the risk of India gaining indirect influence within Asean, which could complicate the bloc's relationship with China. 'Malaysia should navigate this by framing Bangladesh as a neutral economic partner and emphasising shared development goals.' He added that closer Asean ties could lead to better protections for Bangladeshi workers in Malaysia – one of the country's largest migrant groups – although any expansion must be approached with caution. 'Expanding Asean's size is not necessarily good. There should be in-depth analysis of the pros and cons.' Economist Prof Dr Geoffrey Williams offered a more critical perspective, warning that Asean is too fragmented to consider enlargement at this stage. 'Asean is not yet ready for expansion and inclusion of unstable new members,' he said, citing the unresolved tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. Williams said Malaysia does not need Asean to deepen its ties with Bangladesh. 'Any economic benefits can be achieved through a free trade agreement with Bangladesh, covering the free movement of labour and capital and zero tariffs. Asean membership is not necessary.' He also dismissed the idea that the bloc would improve governance of regional labour migration. 'Improved labour mobility can happen if Malaysia removes the agency system and cuts corruption and vested interests.' Williams added that Asean's internal diversity – spanning absolute monarchies, military regimes and one communist one-party state – already presents significant obstacles to integration. 'Adding new countries will only make integration more difficult.' Asean has never yet admitted a country outside Southeast Asia. Timor-Leste remains the only non-member in the process of formal accession. Papua New Guinea, despite previous interest, has yet to garner sufficient support.
New Straits Times
10-07-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Asean unity offers fresh momentum for South China Sea conduct, says expert
KUALA LUMPUR: For the first time, Asean is presenting a united front in pushing for the long-delayed South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC), an initiative aimed at easing tensions in the disputed waters. Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said this show of unity underscores the challenges in finalising the CoC, even after 15 years of negotiations. "The framework for the CoC was agreed upon a few years ago, but it stopped there; it was not a full agreement. "The Foreign Minister (Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan) said Asean is confident that an effective and substantive CoC can be concluded in the near future time and this reflects how difficult it is to reach an agreement in this particular case. "This is also the first time, under Malaysia's chairmanship, that the CoC has a real chance of being concluded," he told the New Straits Times today. Earlier, Mohamad, in his keynote address at the Asean Post Ministerial Conference with China, said the economic bloc is confident that an effective and substantive CoC can be concluded, in the not-too-distant future, with the full commitment of all parties in negotiations. Mohamad also said the bloc welcomed the progress of the CoC and expressed hope for continuous positive momentum. Last year, Mohamad said Malaysia, together with Asean member states, is negotiating the CoC framework with China to prevent conflict in the South China Sea. The framework aims to maintain peace while respecting individual territorial claims and is developed without prejudice to the territorial and maritime claims of each nation. The negotiations are carried out by Asean member states and China through the Asean Joint Working Group, the Asean-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and the Asean-China Senior Officials Meeting on the implementation of the DOC. Malaysia serves as the co-chair in negotiating the draft COC. Commenting further, Azmi said that while Malaysia, the current Asean chair, is likely to see the CoC finalised during its tenure, the document could be accelerated during the Philippines chairmanship. "With China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other key players attending the AMM, Malaysia can help build momentum.
New Straits Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Tariff deadline extended: Malaysia has until Aug 1 to avert 25pct duties
KUALA LUMPUR: The United States has postponed the implementation of a broad 25 per cent tariff on all Malaysian exports to Aug 1, giving Malaysia a crucial window to renegotiate trade terms or seek targeted exemptions, economists say. US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the deadline gives Malaysia a chance to recalibrate its approach and directly address Washington's concerns about the bilateral trade imbalance. Economist Dr Geoffrey Williams said the immediate impact should be limited, as many exporters had already rushed shipments ahead of the original deadline. "There has already been significant front-loading ahead of the deadline. So the impact is to create volatility, but overall trade for the year will average out, with most exports in the first half of 2025 and fewer in the second. "However, the long-term effect hinges on whether a trade deal can be reached before the Aug 1 deadline. There is still some time," Williams told Business Times. Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan agreed that Malaysia retains room to negotiate, unlike some countries that face more rigid conditions. "There's still room to negotiate because the trade deal between Malaysia and the US is not cast in stone," he said, noting that Trump has specifically flagged Malaysia's trade surplus as a concern and outlined three conditions for Malaysia to show concrete efforts to narrow it. "This opens up a pathway for Malaysia to respond directly to US economic concerns, rather than being locked into a rigid or politically motivated trade stance." Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) said Malaysia still has scope to push for a lower tariff within the 25-day grace period and warned that the Trump administration's plans for new sector-specific duties under Section 232 could further complicate Malaysia's trade outlook. Possible drag on GDP Malaysia's exports to the US make up about 7.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). With the introduction of a 25 per cent tariff and assuming a demand elasticity between 0.7 and 2.0, HLIB said the potential drag on GDP could range from 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points. "However, given the limited timeframe for the implementation of new tariffs, elasticity may be dampened due to fewer available substitutes, which could moderate the initial impact," it said. After the 2nd April Liberation Day announcement, HLIB had already revised down its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9 per cent to 4.0 per cent, based on the assumption of a 24 per cent tariff. "In light of the newly stated 25 per cent rate set to take effect on August 1, we are maintaining our GDP projection at 4.0 per cent for now," it said. Malaysia remains more competitive than peers Kenanga Research said the latest tariff rate of 25 per cent for Malaysia remains more favourable than rates imposed on regional peers including Myanmar (40 per cent), Indonesia (32 per cent), Thailand and Cambodia (36 per cent). However, it noted that Malaysia is less competitive compared to Vietnam's 20 per cent rate for domestically produced goods. "Nevertheless, we also highlight that Malaysia retains its advantage versus other countries such as Indonesia and Thailand. "Depending on transhipment rates, Malaysia may retain a relative edge over Vietnam in cases involving transhipped goods, which are subject to a 40 per cent tariff," it said. Impacted sectors Williams noted that many of Malaysia's key export sectors, particularly semiconductors and other electronics, were excluded from the new tariff list. As a result, he believes the brunt of the impact will fall on other areas. "The sectors most affected will be consumer goods and intermediate industrial products — those not exempted from the duty," he said. Meanwhile, Kenanga Research said from its observation, Malaysian tech firms appear to have stronger margin buffers relative to their Vietnam-based peers. Bloomberg data indicates that 31 per cent of listed technology companies in Malaysia achieved EBITDA margins above 20 per cent, compared to just 12 per cent in Vietnam. "This reflects superior operational efficiency among Malaysian players, which could help partially mitigate the impact of Malaysia's higher tariff disadvantage relative to Vietnam. "If exporters are compelled to absorb part of the tariff burden—through lower selling prices or contract renegotiations—this could weigh on profitability, particularly for those operating at the lower end of the margin range," it said. Malaysia should remove remaining 'nuisance tariffs' Williams said Malaysia should adopt a pragmatic and strategic approach to mitigate the effects of the tariffs. "Just because you remove tariffs does not mean domestic buyers will suddenly choose foreign products," he said. Instead, he suggested that Malaysia could consider eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers across the board, allowing market forces to determine outcomes. He believes by lowering its own trade barriers, Malaysia could also position itself as a fair and open trading partner while giving local consumers and businesses more flexibility in sourcing. "US companies are not particularly popular in Malaysia at the moment, due to issues such as links with Israel. Even without tariffs, US products are often not price competitive in this market. "So it should not be presumed that removing tariffs will flood Malaysia with US imports," he added.
New Straits Times
29-06-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Analysts divided on effectiveness of SDs to curb party-hopping in Sabah
KUALA LUMPUR: Political analysts are divided over the effectiveness of signing statutory declarations (SDs) to deter party-hopping, as Umno prepares to make its candidates do so in the Sabah election. Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said although the signing of SDs had proven effective in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah's unique political landscape might require tailored measures. "I am guessing that there is fine-tuning for Sabah because the political situation is very unique there, where party hopping is a norm in the state," he said. International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political analyst Assistant Professor Dr Lau Zhe Wei said the use of SDs in past state elections could not be used as evidence of success to curb party-hopping. "I couldn't recall whether there was potential for party-hopping from Umno during the previous Melaka and Johor elections. It would not have been an issue to begin with," he said. Yesterday, Umno secretary-general Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said the party's candidates in the Sabah election would be required to sign SDs. Asyraf said the contents of the SD were being refined by the party's legal team, including Umno information chief Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said, taking into account the current political landscape.
New Straits Times
22-06-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Malaysia should call for restraint over Iran conflict, says analyst
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia, as Asean chair, should urge global power blocs to exercise restraint and work together over the Iran-Israel conflict, an analyst said. Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan criticised the West—including the United States, United Kingdom and France—and the opposing bloc of Russia and China for acting independently in handling the crisis. He also questioned US President Donald Trump's statement calling on Iran to seek peace, made just after announcing airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. "It is very ironic that when you attack a country and ask them not to retaliate. It is rather odd," Azmi said. He said Trump may have believed the strikes would pressure Iran into surrendering, but said such a scenario was unlikely. "I don't think (Iran will surrender). What we've seen in the past few hours in Iran itself suggests there is a demonstration of support for their government." Azmi warned that the airstrikes could worsen tensions, noting that Iran has already fired another round of missiles following the US attack. Earlier today, the United States confirmed it had attacked three Iranian nuclear sites, including the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, marking its entry into the conflict. The war began with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian strategic sites, prompting immediate retaliation from Tehran.
