Latest news with #OCR
Scoop
2 days ago
- Business
- Scoop
Duck, Dive…Revive?
Press Release – BNZ Indicators of global risk appetite remain healthy and global equity markets have blasted through record highs. Thats helpful for confidence, to the extent it lasts. Alongside this and, most importantly for NZs economic plight, the recent trend … Indicators partially correct May's stumble But sense of the recovery failing to launch remains, pushing back timing of labour market recovery Sluggish property market turns up in Q2 inflation figures Downtrend in rent inflation has further to run Runway to a sub-3% OCR looking clearer Here's our take on the learnings and implications from the past few weeks' worth of econo-news. 1. Tariffs, but with happy markets US tariffs and trade negotiations are back on the front page. That's dashed some hopes the prior 90-day tariff pause might slide into permanency. But a string of recent trade deals has helped produce a vastly different reception amongst financial market participants and forecasters this time around. Indicators of global risk appetite remain healthy and global equity markets have blasted through record highs. That's helpful for confidence, to the extent it lasts. Alongside this and, most importantly for NZ's economic plight, the recent trend stabilisation in global growth expectations has held. Consensus forecasts for global growth were even nudged up a touch this month, for both 2025 and 2026 (to 2.3%y/y and 2.4% respectively). Continued resilience in the global economic data pulse, particularly in the US, has helped. We won't add to speculation on whether this is all too optimistic ahead of another trade deal deadline on Friday, and the effective US tariff rate rising above 15%. Suffice to say, the dragging uncertainty associated with US trade policy, while lower than previously, looks set to stick around, a negative impost on investment particularly. 2. Investment appetites stirring? Despite this uncertainty, we're encouraged by a sprinkling of indications NZ investment appetites may at least be stirring. Surveyed investment intentions have not only established a foothold at above average levels but have pushed on further in recent months (ANZ survey, July edition out Wednesday). Admittedly, buoyant rural sector cash flows are having an outsized impact here, per the chart. Boosting the odds these intentions are ultimately acted upon is anecdote suggestive of reasonable interest in the government's Investment Boost scheme. And perhaps also the lift in investment-related imports we noticed in last week's merchandise trade figures. There's a heap of month-to-month volatility in these data, but in June we saw plant and machinery imports up 13%y/y, imports of transport equipment rising 19%, and those for intermediate goods up 21%. It's all partial stuff but, taken together, helps assuage some of our prior concerns sluggish business investment might be a dragging anchor for the broader recovery. 3. Steadying of the wobble Other June economic data to hand paint a picture of a partial steadying from May's surprise and unwelcome wobble. Most 'high frequency' indicators have pulled back a bit from the brink (chart next page). The underlying sense of the recovery so far failing to launch remains though. Indicative of such, two of the better monthly indicators we watch – the Performance of Manufacturing and Performance of Services indices – continue to openly question the extent of growth uplift we've got on the board. And that's even after our second quarter GDP forecast was pruned to -0.2%q/q. The Reserve Bank's new Kiwi-GDP 'nowcast' sits at -0.3%. We still think the mid-year activity air-pocket will pass. The underlying drivers of the recovery remain in place and should reassert themselves in coming quarters. But the recent weakness does push back the likely timing of the eventual labour market recovery. We doubt the current undershoot of firms' labour requirements relative to worker availability will change appreciably this side of Christmas. Our forecast peak in unemployment has been shunted out to 5.4% in the final quarter of the year. Wage growth should thus continue to slow through to the middle of next year. 4. Inflation (slightly) less threatening We think the supply overhang in the labour market is symptomatic of what's going on in the broader economy. And it's central to our expectation the current burst of inflation will peter out early next year. Our updated forecasts have CPI inflation peaking at 2.9% y/y in the current (third) quarter (forecast table at back of document). That's a touch lower than previously and follows the nudge up to 2.7% in Q2 revealed by Stats NZ last week. Hikes in food and energy prices are expected to feature prominently again in Q3, as well as this year's annual rates increase. Thereafter, a brisk return to the mid-point of the Reserve Bank's 1-3% target range is anticipated through the first half of 2026. An eye-catching but perhaps not surprising feature amongst the detail of the June inflation numbers was the downward pressure on many of the components linked to the sluggish housing and construction markets. Construction costs fell outright in Q2 for the first time since 2011. We've got additional declines pegged for the next two quarters, in part reflecting past weakness in house prices. Annual inflation in property maintenance prices fell to 1.4%, with that for household supplies and services at 1.5%. Meanwhile, household appliances and domestic accommodation experienced annual deflation in Q2 of 0.9% and 6.3% and respectively. Notably, these CPI subgroups comprise five of the top ten most sensitive to interest rates, according to recent research by the Reserve Bank. 5. Rent declines confirm excess supply Annual rent inflation was marked at a still robust 3.2%y/y in June. Rents in the CPI are measured on the stock of all rental properties. But note that rents for new tenancies – a flow measure collected by MBIE more closely aligned to market conditions – are now deflating at a (smoothed) annual rate of around 2%. That's around the weakest in the history of a series going back to the mid-90s. It puts the median new tenancy rent back at late 2023 levels around $560/week. It fits with the general state of rental market oversupply highlighted in our recent research, a development noted as most obvious in Auckland and Wellington. Heightened supply, alongside the fact net migration remains, not only weak, but also subject to continued downward revisions, points to the strong likelihood CPI rental (stock) inflation falls back towards 2% over the coming 12 months. till, one development worth highlighting is that available rental listings, according to the data we collect from Trademe, appear to have stopped rising. On our estimates, rental vacancy rates have tracked roughly sideways at 3.3% for the past two months. If sustained, this would cap a multi-year uptrend and mean rental supply capacity, while still large, is no longer expanding. 6. Runway to a sub-3% OCR looking clearer It's been relatively quiet on the interest rate front recently. There's been a pause in the trend declines in most retail interest rates (chart opposite). However, the net of recent growth and inflation goings on described above is sufficient in our view to reintroduce some gentle downward pressure, should the RBNZ resume Official Cash Rate cuts in August as we expect. A 25bps cut in August is as close to fully priced as it gets and we think the combination of sputtering demand and contained inflation supports the case for a follow up in October. That is, there's no change to our long-held forecast for a 2.75% low in the OCR cycle. At a high level we still think the risks are falling evenly either side of this view but more recently there's probably been more of a skew to the downside.
The Hill
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Trump administration says transgender policies at five Northern Virginia school districts violate Title IX
The Department of Education announced on Friday the conclusion of investigations into five Northern Virginia school districts, finding district policies accommodating transgender students violate federal law. The department's Office for Civil Rights (OCR) opened probes into the Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William County school districts in February following requests to do so from America First Legal, a conservative organization founded by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. In letters to OCR, the group alleged that each school district had continued enforcing policies meant to support transgender students in violation of Title IX, the federal civil rights law against sex discrimination in schools. The policies vary by school district, but each allows trans students to use restrooms and locker rooms that match their gender identity and requires their teachers and peers to address them by their chosen name and pronouns. America First Legal said the policies provide 'greater rights to students whose 'gender identity' does not match their biological sex than it does to students whose 'gender identity' matches their biological sex.' In a news release on Friday, OCR said its investigations had determined the school districts' policies indeed violate Title IX, which the Trump administration has said broadly prohibits transgender girls from using girls' facilities and participating on girls' school sports teams. OCR said it sent resolution agreements to each of the districts, which have until Aug. 4 to sign them or risk 'imminent enforcement action,' including referral to the Department of Justice. 'Although this type of behavior was tolerated by the previous Administration, it's time for Northern Virginia's experiment with radical gender ideology and unlawful discrimination to come to an end,' said Craig Trainor, the Education Department's acting assistant secretary for civil rights. 'OCR's investigation definitively shows that these five Virginia school districts have been trampling on the rights of students in the service of an extreme political ideology.' Prince William County Public Schools, in a statement posted on the district's website, said it would 'conduct a thorough review' of OCR's proposal but remains 'firmly committed to fostering a safe, inclusive, and respectful learning environment for all students and staff.' 'Our policies and practices are guided by our core values and by applicable federal and state laws. We continue to uphold our longstanding nondiscrimination policy, which prohibits discrimination in employment and in the provision of educational programs, services, and activities on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, and other protected characteristics,' the district said. 'PWCS will continue to work collaboratively with OCR and all stakeholders to ensure compliance with Title IX and to support the well-being and dignity of every student.' Spokespeople for Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax and Loudoun County Public Schools did not immediately return The Hill's requests for comment. In a statement, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) applauded OCR's findings. 'Commonsense is back, with biological boys and girls in their own locker rooms and bathrooms, and boys out of girls sports,' he said. OCR's proposed resolution agreements would require each of the five districts to rescind policies that allow transgender students to access bathrooms and changing rooms that match their gender identity, rather than their sex at birth, and adopt 'biology-based' definitions of the words 'male' and 'female' in policies and practices related to Title IX. Each district must also issue a memo 'explaining that any future policies related to access to intimate facilities must be consistent with Title IX by separating students strictly on the basis of sex, and that Title IX ensures women's equal opportunity in any education program or activity including athletic programs,' according to the proposal. While Virginia lacks a state law barring transgender student-athletes from competing on teams that match their gender identity, the Virginia High School League, which regulates high school sports in the state, announced in February that it would limit participation on girls' teams to students assigned female at birth to comply with President Trump's executive order on transgender athletes, reversing a near-decade-old policy. Friday's OCR announcement comes as the Education Department's civil rights arm initiated a separate Title IX investigation into Oregon's Department of Education over allegations that its policies allow transgender student-athletes to compete according to their gender identity, in violation of Trump's order and the administration's interpretation of federal law. OCR said it opened the investigation based on a complaint it received from the America First Policy Institute, a nonprofit founded by Trump's Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, and Education Secretary, Linda McMahon. Oregon's state anti-discrimination law holds that schools 'are prohibited from excluding gender expansive students from participating in school athletics and activities' that best align with their gender identity.
BBC News
4 days ago
- BBC News
YouGov survey splits opinions on students using AI for coursework
One in six adults thought reducing or removing coursework would be the best way for schools to avoid the misuse of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a YouGov poll, which was commissioned by Cambridge University Press and Assessment, said 89% of adults thought it was "unacceptable" for pupils to use AI, but almost half said it was acceptable for improving punctuation and came after Jill Duffy, the chief executive of exam board OCR, called for a co-ordinated national strategy on AI."The public is clear that coursework is too important to lose, even in the age of AI," Ms Duffy said. The poll of 2,221 UK adults found 46% agreed with using AI for punctuation and grammar in school coursework, but 44% did 16% thought reducing or removing coursework completed at home was the best way to avoid student AI misuse. Risk to fairness Ms Duffy called for a strategy on AI after an independent curriculum and assessment review said it would consider reducing the "overall volume of assessment" at interim report, published in March, said the review had heard about the "risks" to standards and fairness concerning AI in relation to review, which was chaired by education expert Becky Francis, will publish its final recommendations in the Duffy said the findings should be seen as a challenge to find a way to "adapt coursework so it is fit for the AI century". "AI is already in our schools and is not going away," she said."A co-ordinated national strategy, with funding to ensure no schools are left behind, will build public confidence in its transformational potential."[AI] enables us to test different skills, and to reduce the intense volume of exams taken at 16."The YouGov survey, which was carried out in June, suggested more than three in five UK adults also oppose teachers using AI to mark coursework, but 27% support it. Follow Cambridgeshire news on BBC Sounds, Facebook, Instagram and X.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
US Department of Education launches probe into University of Michigan's DACA scholarship: Is it unfair to American citizens?
The US Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights (OCR) has launched a formal investigation into the University of Michigan's 'Dreamer Scholarship,' questioning whether its exclusive focus on undocumented students violates federal civil rights law. The inquiry is one of five such investigations opened this month into university-based aid programs that offer financial support only to recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). The investigation seeks to determine whether these scholarships violate Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, colour, or national origin in any program receiving federal funding. What is the Dreamer Scholarship? The Dreamer Scholarship, administered by the University of Michigan's Office of Academic Multicultural Initiatives, provides financial assistance exclusively to students protected under the DACA program. DACA, enacted in 2012 via executive order, allows certain undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children to obtain work permits, defer deportation, and pursue higher education. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Even Beautiful Women Have Their 'Oops' Moments Read More Undo Unlike citizens and permanent residents, DACA recipients are ineligible for federal financial aid such as Pell Grants, federal student loans, or work-study. To bridge this gap, some universities and private donors created targeted scholarship programs like the Dreamer Scholarship to help undocumented students cover tuition costs. The complaint: Exclusion by citizenship The current probe stems from complaints filed by the Equal Protection Project of the Legal Insurrection Foundation, a conservative legal advocacy group. The organisation argues that by restricting eligibility to DACA recipients, the University of Michigan is discriminating against US-born students, who are barred from applying solely due to their citizenship status. The Department of Education, now operating under President Donald Trump's administration, has acted swiftly on the complaint. OCR's investigation will assess whether a scholarship administered by a federally funded institution can legally prioritise non-citizens over citizens without violating Title VI's ban on national origin-based discrimination. What does Title VI prohibit? At the heart of the investigation is the interpretation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, a landmark federal law that was originally designed to combat racial segregation and discrimination in federally funded programs. Over time, the law has been applied to issues involving national origin, particularly in public education. Federal officials are now asking whether scholarships that explicitly or implicitly exclude US citizens based on immigration or citizenship status, even when targeting historically disadvantaged groups, run afoul of this law. The issue is further complicated by the fact that immigration status is not explicitly listed in Title VI, but national origin is. A Trump-era shift in education policy This investigation reflects the broader ideological direction of the Trump administration's education agenda, which places strong emphasis on prioritising US citizens in publicly funded programs. Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has vowed to scrutinise identity-based programs that, in the administration's view, may marginalise citizens in favour of non-citizens or targeted identity groups. This push comes on the heels of the 2023 Supreme Court ruling that struck down race-conscious college admissions policies. Since that decision, race-based scholarships and diversity initiatives have increasingly come under legal fire, and DACA-focused aid appears to be the next target. What happens if the scholarship is found unlawful? Should the Department of Education determine that the Dreamer Scholarship violates Title VI, the University of Michigan could face significant consequences. These may include: Mandatory changes to the scholarship's eligibility requirements Loss of access to certain federal funds or grants Increased legal vulnerability to similar civil rights complaints in the future The decision could also have a ripple effect across higher education, prompting universities nationwide to re-evaluate scholarship programs that focus on undocumented or DACA-protected students. What this means for students and universities This case sets up a complex and high-stakes debate about how universities can balance inclusive financial aid policies with federal non-discrimination requirements. It also challenges institutions to reassess how far they can go in supporting undocumented students without running into legal or political resistance. For undocumented students, the investigation adds a new layer of uncertainty. For citizen students who feel excluded from identity-based aid programs, it may represent a shift in their favour. And for universities, it signals that the federal government is watching closely, and may soon demand major changes in how scholarships are awarded. TOI Education is on WhatsApp now. Follow us here . Ready to navigate global policies? Secure your overseas future. Get expert guidance now!
The Citizen
5 days ago
- Sport
- The Citizen
Ballito obstacle course racer ready for international challenge
Ballito's Aristo Nolan is heading to Sweden to represent South Africa at the 2025 Obstacle Course Racing (OCR) World Championships. Organised by Swedish Athletics in collaboration with Tough Viking, the championship will take place in Gothenburg from September 11 to 14, drawing elite athletes from 140 nations. Competitors will tackle challenging terrain and endurance-testing obstacles. Nolan (28), a seasoned athlete and founder of Taurus Performance, earned his place on the South African national team after three years of dedicated training and regular podium finishes at elite competitions. 'I've always loved trail and cross country running but needed something more challenging. So, OCR was right up my alley,' he said. The former amateur rugby player will take on two events: The 3km elite short course featuring roughly 20 obstacles and the 12km standard course with around 40 obstacles. 'This is more than a race,' said Nolan, who also serves as Head of Strength and Conditioning at Umhlali Preparatory School. 'It's a chance to make our country and community proud.' Beyond his athletic achievements, Nolan is a qualified sports scientist and mentor, known for his commitment to youth development through sport. He also coaches the Ballito Dolphins rugby teams and continues to inspire the next generation of athletes locally and beyond. Nolan credited his sponsors for making this journey possible, including Rewilding Southern Africa, Taurus Performance, Yowie Fitness and On The Move. 'These brands have gone above and beyond to support my journey. Their belief in me and in this sport means everything.' Training across Sugar Rush Park's rugged tracks, Holla Trails' varied terrain and The Training Ground at Linc has provided the ideal OCR preparation. 'These spaces are my training home,' said Nolan. 'Every sprint, every grip rep and every lift has been part of a bigger goal.' 'I am going to give it my all, physically, mentally and emotionally. Representing South Africa is an honour, and I will be leaving it all out there in Sweden.' Stay in the loop with The North Coast Courier on Facebook, X, Instagram & YouTube for the latest news. Mobile users can join our WhatsApp Broadcast Service here, or if you're on desktop, scan the QR code below.
